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지정학 긴장(러시아·중국·이란 결집, 알래스카·NATO 영공 침범, 트럼프의 우크라이나 입장 변화)과 정부 셧다운 우려 속에서 유가·금 상승 추세를 짚고, 비트코인 청산 급증과 하락 흐름을 설명. 장 중 테슬라 및 특정 기술적 지지선 반등을 언급하며 자체 유료 멤버십 홍보에 집중. 구체적 방향 예측보다는 리스크 환기와 기술적 매매 신호 주장 위주.
다듬은 글
Markets are all of a sudden diving. Bitcoin dropping below 109,000 with nearly a billion dollars of crypto liquidations over the last 24 hours. Part of this could be because of a substantial notional open interest option expiration. That's a really fancy word. Or it could be because the world's going to war and something crazy is happening with Pete Hexth ordering a rare urgent meeting of hundreds of generals and admirals.
Oh, okay. There's a lot to break down here. There's Trump activity to break down, government shutdown activity to break down. There's geopolitical concern to break down, including Russian violations of Alaskan airspace along with other airspace or or Alaskan air defense zone airspace, which is slightly different.
We'll talk about that. Uh and then obviously also, yes, uh Ethereum below 4,000, Bitcoin under 108. uh you've got uh over a billion dollars in liquidations in just the last 24 hours with 17 billion in open interest tied to Bitcoin and about 5.3 tied to Ether due to expire today. uh and uh now we're seeing sort of cascading liquidations of really bullish moves on crypto at the same time as over the last few weeks we've seen gold continue its rally but also oil move up under fears of escalating geopolitical tensions especially as Donald Trump flip-flops and now we have this insane kind of order over here that basically makes you want to sign up for /life.
Oh yeah, that's the banner right here. Meet Kevin.com/life. They're a paid sponsor of the channel. Okay, it's the life insurance I use. It's term life. You get it in like 5 minutes. It's It's great. I love them. If you don't have it yet, check it off your list. Do it while you watch the video. By the time you're done with this video, you will be done with your application.
All right, here. Hags orders rare urgent meeting of hundreds of generals. So, what's going on here? Well, they say they have absolutely no idea. This is basically being assigned to all of the military's top commanders in the world and they're all going to meet in one building in Quantico, Virginia, which a commenter on my live stream, shout out to them, they said this is kind of like the Star Trek 2 movie where a meeting was announced and all of I guess the military leaders went to one area uh and the villain ended up destroying that particular building where all the militaries now I don't know basically much of anything unfortunately I really got to catch up on this on Star Trek but that's a comment somebody made and it kind of makes sense like why are we putting all of our military leaders in one place this by the way is super unprecedented like this hasn't been done before and it's all happening in Quanico apparently there are 800 generals and admirals spread across the United States and in dozens of other countries and time zones this order applies to all senior staff officers ers with the rank of brigadier general or above or their navy equivalent serving in commander positions and their top listed advisors.
Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, all generals from all those areas are being sent to Quanico, Virginia next week, which is also in line with government shutdown week. So, we'll have to talk about that also. But apparently we're direct anybody with a rank of 07 or grade of 07 to0. So generals, flag officers, 07 to0 are being directed to attend.
Donald Trump will be attending virtually. And this is leading people to say, well, wait a minute. Like we typically have these meetings uh via video conference because then we don't have to worry about the operational risk of putting all of our country's generals into one freaking building for you know Iran to nuke or you know uh China or Russia or I don't know people with pager bombs or something.
Another person said ordering hundreds of military leaders to appear in the same location is quote not how this is done. Yeah, no kidding. You don't call general every general and flag officer out of the Pacific right now. This is all very weird. They're saying this, by the way, is all coming at the same time as back in May.
You kind of have to remember this. Pete Hegsth, they're doing a few things at at both with Marco Rubio at the State Department and Pete Hegth now at the War Department. What they're doing is they're saying, "We want more consolidated power. We want the State Department to have more power at the State Department and we care less about ambassadors.
Right now, 55% of our ambassador seats are vacant because basically unless you just align with the Trump memo via fidelity and loyalty tests, they don't want you. And they're just not even appointing people right now. Of course, Trump is like, "It's the Democrat's fault we're not, you know, appointing ambassadors." And people are like, "This is abnormal in history to have this many vacancies for ambassador seats.
This is very, very strange, but that's because Marco Rubio wants to consolidate the Department of State and have more power centralized around Donald Trump. Pete Hgsth is doing the same thing. In May, he said, "We want fewer generals and more GIs, basically more soldiers on the ground, fewer generals." Okay, that was in May of 2025.
That's when he promised to cut 10% of general officers, 100 admirals to be removed, and to a 20% reduction in fourstar ranks. And so, a lot of people are wondering like, okay, like, is this meeting happening because we're about to do a giant purge and we're about to fire a bunch of people? It's like, hey everyone, you're all fired.
Guess who's going to run the military now? Donnie and Don Jr. with World Liberty Financial Token. Or it has to do with China and Putin, which is entirely possible because we literally just asked or or saw Russia and China ask the United Nations to delay sanctions on Iran by up to 6 months. Now, keep in mind that's the axis.
Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. Three of them are nuclear powers. The only one that's not a nuclear power we attacked. This makes them all tighter together. Mind you that at the same time as this is happening, uh, you look at the front page of the Global Times right now, uh, and what is China talking about on the front page?
Let's see if it's still here. Yeah, I just loaded it. Front page of the Global Times. China hits US firms with export controls, unreliable entityless sanctions and moves. Uh basically these are specifically happening against like defense companies and American defense contractors. And China is bragging about how they're hitting specific American companies with sanctions or restrictions because this is not just about Russia or China.
It's about all of them together. Russia and China supporting Iran uh and all of them trying to attack the United States to weaken the United States while Putin probes Europe and the United States. This is all connected. Look at what's happening. Golden oil up in the last few weeks at the same time. Now, Lavrov, the Russian defense minister, is apparently saying the following.
NATO and the European Union through Ukraine have declared war on Russia and are directly participating in it. Now, of course, you know, Poly Market sees only a chance uh a 13% chance of a NATO and Russia military clash in 2025, but that's Poly Market. Ignoring that for a moment, you've got to recognize Donald Trump's massive flip-flop while at the same time we've got, you know, jets scrambling off Alaska and now minutes ago talk of this in Hungary as well.
This is really weird. While we're going to put all of our generals in the same freaking room, like this is weird. This is really weird. But look at what Donald Trump says. Donald Trump says, "After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine Russia military and economic situation, and after seeing economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win back all of Ukraine in its original form." Okay, wait a minute.
Not only is this a really big flip-flop for Donald Trump, but it's also something that goes a whole lot further than what he said previously. Now, this is actually really important and we got to talk about this quick note. I want to look at this right here. Look at that bounce on the Q's right now. Nice bounce on the Q's right here, which is great.
Uh, you could almost get a trend. Yeah, you can almost get a solid trend line between these uh lows right here. Mind you, this morning a lot of people in the Meet Kevin membership made a crapload of money trading this double bottom right here. That's because we were live up until right about here in the meet Kevin membership.
And when we rejected VWAP over here, I suggested there's little volume on the downside here. We are going to skyrocket past this. And a lot of people printed in this meet Kevin membership. So if you're not part of it yet, you this is what we try to do. We try to set up these trades on a daily basis, show you where are the bottoms, what are the things to watch for.
Let's use technical analysis, but let's combine it with macro and let's set you up for the best possible way to trade in the day so you know what to watch for and how to set up what's going on. Now, obviously, a lot of this geopolitical panic here uh at the second half of the day is leading to some concern, especially in Bitcoin, as we've seen, you know, big options volatility day.
Uh and you know, Michael Sailor seeing some pain over on Micro Strategy. We just broke 300, which is the 298 line, which we referenced this morning in our course member live stream as well. And look at that. Trended straight down $18 straight to this. remember you, uh you get not only the uh um trade alerts, uh but you get all of the eight courses, you get the course member live streams, you get the alpha reports every day.
Join over at meetke.com. We've got a coupon link below and a price increase tomorrow. ; That's right. Thank you uh to um what's his name? The Halo man. Okay. But look at the second problem that you have here. Okay. It's not just a matter see like Donald Trump a few months ago uh his impression of the Ukraine Russia situation was hey you know Russ Putin Zalinski is going to have some kind of land swap.
we're going to give up some land from Ukraine and give some to Russia and Russia will give some to Ukraine and then we'll end the war. So, we went from we'll end the war in 24 hours to we're going to have a land swap to JK, we're not going to have a land swap. Ukraine is actually likely to win back all of its land.
But then listen to this. Ready for this? Trump goes on to talk about how Russia's fighting this endless war and is a is a paper tiger. Look at this right here. This is bad for like World War II concerns. Listen to this threat. This is a blatant threat against Russia. Ready for this? Ukraine, which has great spirit and only getting better.
Ukraine would be able to take back their country in its original form and who knows, maybe even go further than that. Putin and Russia are in for big economic trouble. And this is the time for Ukraine to act. This is a blatant threat against Russia. So it's no surprise, you know, Lavrov, the defense minister, is like, "Yo, what the hell?
Uh you guys are basically declaring war on this." Well, at the same time, you know, NATO. Well, at the same time, look at what we've got over here. This is the Alaska uh defense uh international zone, and NORAD had to scramble jets. uh to to you know see what's going on basically with these Russian war plananes flying near Alaska.
Now they said that even though they scrambled jets to intercept four Russian war plananes, they said this was not necessarily uncommon, but it seems to be sort of a probing like uh there it's like Russia's testing like let's just see how ready the United States actually is to fight us. But the same thing is actually happening now with we're seeing this with uh Hungary.
This was just minutes ago. Look at this. Minutes ago, two Hungarian Griffins assigned to the NATO Baltic air policing mission were scrambled earlier today in Lithuania to intercept a large group of Russian fighter aircraft, including three MiGs and two other aircraft near the Latvian airspace over the Baltic Sea.
Now, this is important because now when we look at where we've had violations of airspace, look at this. This is from uh the Doombergs. Doomberg here has Russian violations of NATO airspace in September. Now, what I did is I um uh I put together the uh these little yellow labels over here. the uh uh Estonia right here just had jet incursions from Russia that they complained about violating their territory.
You had drones that were identified as likely from a state actor by Denmark. So Denmark isn't saying that it was definitely Russia. And there's plenty on social media circulating that this was just the Ukrainians, you know, flying these drones to try to like get NATO involved in this war. which makes sense.
You know, NATO, I mean, Ukraine obviously wants the United States, NATO, and Europe to fight Russia because it's good for Ukraine. And this is why, you know, we expect that the Biden administration destroyed the Nordstream 2 pipeline uh to make it look like it was Russian sabotage, but then it turns out it was almost certainly US CIA uh and intelligence that blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline as a way of justifying US monetary support or fiscal support for uh the war effort against Russia.
So it's window dressing, right? to say like this is why we're spending money. See how crazy Putin is. Anyway, Latvia and Lithuania right here. So, Hungarian jets are scrambled over here. So, these are going to turn red now in terms of where we have, you know, Russian violations of airspace. And then you have Poland who had the 25 drones that accidentally went into Russian air or went into Polish airspace, which, you know, we we know that is uh uh ridiculous.
uh you know this this idea that there's a mistake. Um let me see here. Uh let's see. Okay. Uh that's that. All right. Then you have Romania that about 11 days ago, I think it was on the 14th, reported uh uh drone incursions into Romania. Mind you, these are NATO members, right? So NATO members. Here's Ukraine.
Here's Barus. So you can see they're not listed as NATO members, but NATO members are like, "Yo, what the hell are you doing, Russia?" This comes on top of what's going on off the coast of Alaska. This is probing. It's constant probing. So, uh, this comes at the same time as you have this potential government shutdown that would lead to potentially a lot of layoffs.
You know, you have uh air traffic control and the FAA arguing that a government shutdown would halt ATC hiring and cost $1 billion in travel expenses per week. On top of this, the Wall Street Journal edi editorial board is suggesting that Donald Trump needs to fix what he's doing with Ukraine uh and Russia because so far he's screwing up.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board says Trump inviting Putin to Alaska might be like JFK inviting uh uh Kruev to Vienna in 1961, convincing Russia that he could get away the Russian that he could get away with missiles in Cuba, which then led to the Cuban missile crisis. Basically, the Wall Street Journal editorial board is saying Putin has Trump by the balls because Putin convinced Trump that they're friends and it bought Putin a lot of time and no action.
That's the thing. I mean, even the editorial board right here says, uh, for the first time, Donald Trump is U-turning, articulating that you want Ukraine to win, but also for eight months, Putin has watched Trump do nothing. Trump talks big about threatening Putin uh and tariffs against Russian oil or or tariffs against countries that import Russian oil, but so far nothing has happened.
You know, there's a bill uh for 500% tariffs against countries that import Russian oil in Congress that has 82 co-sponsors. Yet, when Trump was asked about that a couple of months ago, Trump says, "Uh, that's excessive. you know, anything really over 50 or 100%. You know, that basically kills trade anyway.
So, we don't need anything more than that, which again is a way of sort of like patting his buddy Putin on the back where it's like, h, you know, we don't have to be that Putin's being a little knucklehead, but we don't have to be that mean to him. We're 500%. Well, you know, now people are like, I do you see why this isn't working out, Donnie T?
And this is why, you know, people are reporting. I mean, even Donald Trump himself has said, "H, my relationship didn't work out the way I thought it would in being able to end this war quickly." Here's the quote from Trump. Trump told reporters he thought the Ukraine war would be an easy war to mediate.
Quote, "Because of my relationship with Putin." But unfortunately that relationship didn't mean anything. In addition to that, European allies are now quietly telling Russia that we will shoot down your jets if you keep violating our airspace. That in addition to Trump's truth social posts are being seen as basically, you know, what Lavrov is saying and he's a wararmonger though.
Lavrov's basically saying, "Hey, you guys are declaring war on us. This is crazy. How could you declare war on us like this? This is terrible." And so, you know, what are we getting? We're getting an escalation of geopolitical tensions. And this isn't good. Markets don't like that. The crypto market doesn't like that.
The stock market doesn't like that because it's inflationary. What ends up happening is you end up getting uh you get oil prices that rise over time. You get gold prices that rise over time. Gold just turned positive on some of this latest geopolitical drama. Uh and when you look at oil prices uh now turning green, so rising.
If you look at oil prices, I mean, you could see the last 6 months over here since liberations crash. You're trending up. It's not dramatic up, but you're trending up here. More recently, you got over last year, we're lower than where we were last year because of, you know, liberation and the idea that our economy would kind of compress a bit, but now we're seeing some early signs of of oil and gold move up on some of these geopolitical issues.
There are serious concerns. At the same time, as this crazy meeting where we're going to go put all of our war generals into the same room, this just sounds, I mean, frankly, kind of dumb, but uh I I don't know. What are you going to do? What are you I'll tell you what you're going to do. You're going to enjoy this bounce on the cues.
You're going to join the Meet Kevin membership and you're going to see we're in the Meet Kevin membership this morning. Once again, I said don't go bullish on Tesla today, it's going back to 414. And I said that pre-market when it was at 445. And look at that. From 445, it loses $22. That's not because I'm bearish Tesla.
It's because of our analysis of the timing. And this is coupon link below. So put all of this together, you've got a big pooper dupers. You've got Donald Trump also potentially now using the government shutdown as an opportunity to say, "Hey, we're going to permanently lay off a bunch of people." Uh this is leading to now concerns over you know what is that going to mean for the economy.
Look at this Washington Post White House begins plan for mass firings if there's a government shutdown. And we don't mean temporary. A memo from the White House directs agencies to consider firing employees working on any program that is not funded by another law basically under the cover of the government shutdown.
The whole point of that is to be able to blame Democrats. So, first you blame Elon at Doge. Now you turn around and blame Democrats during the government shutdown to go fire more people. It's crazy. So, you know, you've got you've got a wild situation going on where now people are also talking about this this demand that all these generals come to DC or Quanico rather erodess the military's ability to stay insulated from the nation's toxic politics.
This is all, by the way, coming at the same time as the Pentagon is not being allowed to share as much information with reporters as it used to be able to. You know, we now have a communications oversight rule that only approved information is allowed to be disclosed. That's not been done before. So basically, the Pentagon and the War Department have to approve information that journalists are allowed to post, which is crazy.
You're also now limiting what officials can say at think tank events or public events, limiting reporting that is usually considered transparent. But that free speech investigation by journalists who are now having to be escorted around the Pentagon, which that hasn't been done for generations, is all sending a signal that something weird is going on here.
Either a lot of people are expected to get fired at the Pentagon or there's some kind of war brewing. Uh, you know, we just changed the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War. So, what's going on? you now you're putting all of our generals in one place. So, it's possible that there's going to be talk about Russia, Iran, and China and some kind of joint strategy uh against the axis of evil, if you will.
It's also possible that in addition to talking about a strategy, they just tell people in the defense department or now war department that they have to go fire a bunch of people uh under the cover layoffs under the cover of a government shutdown. But it's also on top of that possible uh that they want to restrict and control media access even more that they end up saying, "Hey, you know, all of you risk being fired if you tell the media something that we don't like." That's scary.
So now what we have is a lot of change happening within the next what two weeks or so. Government shutdown next week. Massive war meeting in Quanico. Russia being more aggressive. Donald Trump flip-flopping, suggesting maybe Ukraine could take Russian land uh and and basically grow Ukraine larger than before.
We've got jet incursions off the coast of Alaska and NATO countries. Uh and now we're going to put all of our war staff under one roof. I I oil prices rising, gold price. This is just none of this sounds good. So, is it a surprise that we've seen a billion dollars of crypto liquidations in the last 24 hours?
We're now at $1.12 billion of crypto liquidations in the last 24 hours. In the last 4 hours, half a billion dollar have been liquidated of longs. Actually, here's why you had that drop in the last hour right here. Oh, almost $200 million within just the last hour. liquidated, eradicated, destroyed, gone.
Yikes. Under 10. Uh, yeah, under 110 now. No. So, watch watch this line. Look at this beautiful bounce, by the way. Look at that beautiful sexy bounce on my line. Meet Gavin membership. So, I don't know. I don't know, folks. Uh somebody uh let's see here. Somebody says, "Hey, we've been uh oh, we need the Halo man to say liquidated." Yeah, kind of like in the voice where he goes
betrayal. Okay, somebody else here says, "I miss Trump 2016. Does this mean recession?" I mean, if you go into war, it's going to mean problems, that's for sure. Uh, you've got 1984 George Orwell was not wrong about what, just when? Somebody else replies, "Most transparent administration ever." Uh, yeah.
Get the Russian point of view. Yeah. Telegram. Wow. Somebody says military stocks will be okay. Well, yeah. When Donald Trump flip-flopped on uh Ukraine, you did actually see military stocks move up. Uh so, I mean, let's let's go see Loheed for example. Loheed Martin. Yeah, look at that. on Donald Trump's flip-flop right here.
Uh you have Loheed Martin. See, when Trump was elected, Loheed Martin plummeted. And Loheed Martin has been on a rally since Trump has flip-flopped on Ukraine. Straight up. I mean, you're up 20% from your low. Wow, that's wild. Yeah, crazy times, my friends. But remember, the good news is you can always get yourself life insurance in as little as five minutes.
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Amazing amazing products for uh bill pay, accounting, free as well. I don't even know how they do it for free. It's crazy to me. But um yeah, and then there's always the Meet Kevin membership. Coupon expiring soon. Coupon code expiring soon. Who .
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