저자: Jimmy · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어(PLTR)는 정부·상업 두 세그먼트로 구성된 데이터 소프트웨어 기업으로, 고객 락인이 강하고 2025년 매출 성장률 50% 이상, 순이익률 40% 이상으로 재무가 탄탄하다고 평가. AI 소프트웨어 공포 속에서도 데이터 정리 역할로 위협이 작다고 봄. DCF 공정가치는 성장 조건에 따라 약 $105~$138이며 현재가 약 $145로 다소 고평가. 10% 안전마진을 적용한 매수 희망가 약 $124 근처를 기다리는 관망 입장.
다듬은 글
Hi, I'm Jimmy. In this video, we're looking at Palantir, ticker symbol PLTR. So, in this video, we're going to look at the basics of Palantir's business. Then, we're going to run through some of the numbers, and finally, we're going to try to come up with a fair value for Palantir stock to see if it's worth investing in today.
Now, we're doing this entire analysis on the Investors Grow website. So, if you want to sign up to get access to that, link right here, link in the description below. Okay, first, we're going to jump over and look at their individual segments. And they primarily have two segments listed, government and commercial.
Now, government is exactly what it sounds like. They do a lot with the Department of Defense. They do a lot with a bunch of different divisions within the government, predominantly the US government, and they've been slowly growing their commercial business, generally much larger companies. Now, to explain what they do simply, we could simply say it's a software company, or it's a software company that takes companies' data and tries to organize it.
But, I actually think it's far more interesting than that, because what they do is they take complex data, and they put it in a more usable format. Perfect example, and one of the reasons why I actually think that Palantir is a very unique company, and I would qualify this one as a great company, because what it does is you take something like the Department of Defense, or the US government in general, and there's a lot of things happening all over the place, lots of different data sets coming from a bunch of different, you know, arms of the US government, a bunch of different divisions of the US government is what I meant to say.
And there's all this different data, but it's not cohesively put together. Now, in their annual report, Palantir actually goes out of their way to explain that they are looking for very complex situations, and then they are going after that type of customer. So, they're not going after the typical typical mom-and-pop shop.
This is not a software company like an Intuit, which is running TurboTax and they're TurboTax and they're doing a very singular thing. This is a company that's looking for is Have you spent a whole bunch of money trying to figure out your data yourself and you you can't really do it? Well, Palantir is the company that you would go to.
The advantage to that is that that makes their customers extraordinarily sticky. Once Palantir comes in, puts the whole system in place, and not only they now organizing the data, but in theory now they're using AI to help figure out what needs to be done next, make smart decisions based on that data.
Well, they become extraordinarily valuable to whatever customers are signing up for them. And I went through the past few annual reports, and that has very much been proven true. The customers that sign up with them tend to stay with them. They tend to have very sticky customers because again, once they can get in there and help these customers organize all their data and put it in usable and I'm not just talking about a dashboard, but I'm talking about usable decision-making formats where they've linked all of their data from all different divisions, things like that.
I think Palantir is kind of in a league of its own when it comes to from that standpoint as far as what the company does. Now, that's the good part. They're extraordinarily sticky customers they have. They go after a very big, very complex customer. So, when they take on new customers, those customers tend to bring in a reasonable amount of revenue.
The downside to that is it's not like the upside is unlimited. The total addressable market is far more limited if you're only going after super large customers. Now, they have a few different platforms to speak of. They have Gotham, which is used by their government and defense companies. They have uh Foundry, which is used by their commercial customers.
They have Apollo, which is designed to help deploy software in difficult environments. Then they have something that they call AIP, which is artificial intelligence platform. And essentially it's what I was saying before that this is where they try to have artificial intelligence help their customers make smart decisions based on actual underlying data.
Data again that before in theory before Palantir came on board the customer might not have noticed the relationships. They might not have seen the patterns because they hadn't combined the data the way that Palantir attempts to attempts to do it. So the decisions that the artificial intelligence platform can make can at times be significantly better than the customer would have made on their own.
Now I just want to point out before we leave this section of the website when we click on the summary section here, well here we can see a chart and I've done a lot of analysis recently of software companies cuz the entire industry is getting killed and Palantir is not getting killed but they're not exactly doing that great considering the market over the past year is up fairly good.
Palantir is up 10 12% as of the recording of this video. So again, maybe this is a real opportunity. But for now let's jump over and look at some of the actual underlying numbers with this company. Now we can see that they've only been public for so long and last year fiscal year 2025 they actually put up fantastic numbers.
The growth rate was over 50% when it comes to revenue growth. And over the trailing 12-month numbers, numbers continue to ramp up. Now this is one of the big things that I found most unique about this company is where a lot of software companies are getting the fear of getting replaced by AI is out there.
The whole market seems to hate the idea of software at this point. The entire industry has been beaten down. But I actually don't think that Palantir is too much I I don't think that they're going to be threatened overly so by that particular threat at this point because again as we I'm sure many of us have seen with AI the what is the saying?
Garbage in garbage out that if you don't give AI the data in the right way or you don't have the proper setup or the proper prompts or you don't have the entire thing in order, well, you might not get the results that you really want. And outside of, you know, things like hallucinations and stuff like that with AI, which is a real issue and I'm sure they'll gradually get better at that.
But what Palantir does is they seem to do a great job of putting things in order. So, where other companies might be threatened, I think that there's less of a threat here. And I'm not sure that the market is fully appreciating. We just saw a second ago, their stock's barely up in a market that's doing significantly better than what Palantir is doing.
And when we look at their underlying numbers, their underlying numbers are doing great. We can see a very similar story when we look at net income. Net income is profit. So, they weren't profitable in 2023. Again, the fact that they weren't profitable before that is fine. A lot of younger companies aren't like that as they try to ramp up.
Since then, since 2023, they've 10xed with profit. Profit is 10 times what it was in 2023. When we look at net income profit margins, look at net income profit margins in the most recent time period. I mean, over 40% is outrageous. You know, a lot of great companies, a company like Apple sitting in the 20% last I looked.
When we jump over and look at their balance sheet, well, they have rock-solid balance sheet. They have virtually no debt. They have about 200 or so million dollars in leases. And very often leases are a great thing to look at. Uh you know, it's not exactly debt, but it's very similar. So, a lot of times if you're looking at debt, also consider what the leases look like because that could be a place that companies kind of hide debt.
They got about 200 million, but that's nothing compared to the eight or so billion that they have in cash, short-term investments, long-term investments, things like that. So, balance sheet is rock-solid here. Then when we jump over and look at the cash flow statement, so when we look at free cash flow, well, we can see that much like net income, they weren't profitable they didn't have positive free cash flow, but they did go positive with free cash flow before they went positive with net income.
They went positive with free cash flow in about 2021. And again, they have ramped up impressively since then. And when we complete when we consider analyst estimates in that analyst estimates of the green bars, analyst estimates have this ramping up real fast. Now, if we just stopped right here, and we just use analyst estimates, and we try to come up with a fair value for Palantir stock, well, we get a fair value of about $105 per share.
Right now, it's trading at about $145 per share. So, a bit overvalued, but we're using a perpetual growth rate of 2 and 1/2%. So, the assumption there is after this time period, right? The way that discount of free cash flow works is after your projection time period, how how long what rate is it going to grow at forever?
I picked 2 and 1/2%. It's about the rate of inflation. It's a very fair, somewhat conservative number to use. But, the downside to that is that in this example, where analysts have these numbers ramping up so fast, the assumption is right at the end of this time period, it just starts growing at 2 and 1/2%.
So, that would be really slamming on the brakes. With that, the fair value shakes out to be about $105 per share. Now, if you were to extend this out from 5 years to 10 years, now we have introduced the blue bars. The blue bars are computer calculations that the Investors Group website does. And basically, it takes the growth rate, and it gradually lowers the growth rate.
In this case, I set the growth rate to 15%. Well, it would gradually lower the growth rate in a linear fashion down to 2 and 1/2%. So, point is that each year, the growth rate slows a bit. So it would kind of taper off the growth rate going into the future. So instead of just abruptly growing at 2.5% it would gradually get there over in this case five additional years.
Then it goes to 2.5%. Now clearly this makes a big difference because now the fair value jumps to $138 per share. Again this stock is trading as of as of the recording of this video at about $145 per share. Now for me on a personal basis. I'm a long-term value investor. I very much like this company but I needed to pull back.
I'm going to have to add a margin of safety here. I'm probably want like a 10% margin of safety. I like to add my margin of safety at the end. So I would take 10% off of that 138 and that would be about where I want to jump in and buy this one. Now because of that I'm going to add this one to my watch list because if the opportunity gets there I do want to jump in and buy this.
But let me know what you think in the comments below. Do you like this company? Is this company you think is going to get really hurt by AI or are they well positioned? I truly believe that they have a fairly reasonable moat as Buffett would define it and I think that this company could do fairly good in the long run.
And when the if they pull back a bit more and I can get in this one I think that would be great and when the market eventually re-prices this stuff after we kind of all sort out how AI is going to impact software companies. Well, I think that this company could do very well from a stock perspective.
So for me this one's going in the bullpen and I really hope it pulls back a bit more. But let me know what you think in in the comments below. And if you want to sign up to get access to the Investors Grow website where we try to make it quick and easy to analyze companies. Well, leave a link right here link in the description below and thank you so much for sticking with me all the way to the end of the video. I really do appreciate it. Thank you and I'll see you in the next video.
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