저자: Jimmy · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오가 경기 성장과 인플레이션 변화에 따라 안정적으로 성과를 내도록 설계된 전략임을 설명한다. 핵심 원리는 자산을 금액이 아닌 위험(표준편차) 기준으로 배분하는 것이다. 주식이 채권보다 약 4배 변동성이 크므로 채권 비중을 높여 위험 기여도를 균형 맞춘다. 구성 예시: 주식(VTI) 30%, 장기채(TLT) 40%, 중기채(IEI) 15%, 원자재(GSG) 7.5%, 금(BAR) 7.5%. 금은 GLD보다 수수료가 낮은 BAR를 추천한다. 과거 연간 수익률 양(+)의 비율이 약 85%로 소개되며, 하락 연도에도 시장 대비 낙폭이 작다고 주장한다. 진행자는 이 전략이 보수적일 수 있어 전체 포트폴리오의 일부로 쓰는 것을 언급하고, 배당 전략 'Dogs of the Dow' 영상을 추가로 소개한다. 이 영상은 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측이 아니라 자산배분 전략 설명이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
hi i'm jimmy in this video we're looking at ray dalio's all-weather portfolio we're going to look at how good this particular investment portfolio is and how we can implement it ourselves for to use as our own portfolio if we wanted to i'm hoping we can use this information to hopefully make better investment decisions and ideally get us closer to our goal of achieving financial freedom okay so let's jump right into this thing first let's start with how good the all-weather portfolio really is and to put it bluntly it's really a fantastic portfolio the goal of the all-weather portfolio is to consistently perform well no matter what the economy is doing or no matter what the stock market as a whole is doing we're looking for consistent performance with limited downside hence the name all weather the theory is that no matter what the economy does well the all-weather fund will continue to plug right along with minimal downside risk and now that's not to say that they never have down years they do but from what i've seen of their performance about 85 of the years they have positive return returns and in the years that they're down well the all-weather portfolio tends to be down very little certainly very little compared to the overall stock market okay so let's just say it's a good portfolio now our question is how come how what makes this portfolio different and how can we use it for ourselves so let's start with how the portfolio is put together and what makes it so unique the theory here is that there are two main economic drivers economic factors that we should consider first overall economic growth and second inflation and i'm sure we can all agree that these are two critical factors for us to consider our next question is what is the market expecting that's what this middle line represents is market expectations for both growth and inflation okay simple enough now it's possible that growth in inflation is either rising faster than expected or perhaps it's falling faster than expect and the theory is well maybe it's not a theory since ray dalio spent many years researching this and then the many years since then running the actual all-weather portfolio but either way some the the theory is that some investments perform better during different economic situations so essentially is what we end up with is four different portfolios that perform well or perform ideally during different economic time periods so these are different asset classes that tend to do well in each of those given situations and we may notice that nearly all of these different investment types or different asset classes are at least are in two different boxes so equities which is the same thing as stocks well they perform best when the economy is growing better than expected and when inflation is lower than expected which is fairly obvious commodities on the other hand while they tend to do well also when rising growth is happening and also when rising inflation is happening now i took this straight off the bridgewater website so personally i think that they could have simplified this just a little bit i think we could have cleaned it up a little to make it a bit more understandable for example instead of equities well i think it's simpler just to say stocks those two are usually interchangeable so i think it's just simpler to say stocks then il bonds this one might not be too obvious il in this case are talking about inflation linked bonds generally the most popular version of that is something known as treasury inflation protected securities or tips for short basically these are bonds that pay more interest the higher inflation goes so you we would get rewarded with unexpectedly high inflation rates hence the reason that belongs up in that box but either way another example is nominal bonds these are usually in this case talking about traditional government bonds em credit is just short for emerging market credit basically they're talking about debt or bonds coming out of the emerging markets usually emerging market government bonds but hopefully this is a bit clearer and it's a bit easier to understand what we're looking at from a broader perspective something like commodities well it might be it might not be obvious but we're talking about things like gold or oil and gas things along those lines and then corporate credit here well this is the only one that ray dalio only lists in one box so when i read ray dalio's paper on how they created the all-weather portfolio well he said that a corporate bond is simply a nominal bond plus a credit spread a credit spread just so we're all on the same page is it's based on the quality of the bond so if two companies issue bonds with one company that ha and both of them have 10 years until maturity both bonds have 10 yield to mature 10 years to maturity well if one company is a large blue chip company tons of revenue tons of profit tons of cash flow and the other company is brand new with no track record obviously the brand new company is going to pay out a higher interest rate this spread between their interest rate and the blue chip con company's interest rate is known as the credit spread okay simple enough so what does all this mean well here's the concept since no one can accurately predict where we're going to be at any given period of time either for rising or falling growth and inflation well aren't we better off simply diversifying among each of these four different quadrants i'll call them four different portfolios and in theory if we were to diversify equally among each of the different portfolios let's say 25 in each of the individual portfolios well if we do that aren't we going to have in theory better performance but here's where ray dalio and the all-weather portfolio take this concept of diversification to the next level so to illustrate let's imagine and this is key this is the important part of why this portfolio works as well as it does and it has worked as well as that it has so just to simplify it a bit let's imagine that we have two asset classes let's just say stocks and bonds and again we're going to keep it simple we want to stay well diversified so we're going to say 50 of the portfolio goes in stocks the other 50 goes in bonds and then we're going to say we're going to look at the standard deviation of each of these individual asset classes that is what this little red icon represents this is called sigma it's the greek letter representing standard deviation standard deviation is the most popular way it's most common way for investors to measure risk and basically standard deviation looks at how volatile the asset class is so historically speaking and this is true bonds have been about 25 percent as volatile as stocks have been so stocks have been about four times more volatile than bonds even more so if you're talking about government bonds but just to roughly estimate uh estimated and you know we'll use some example numbers but conceptually these are about right so we're going to say stocks have a standard deviation of 20 and bonds have a standard deviation of 5.
the actual numbers that we're using here are somewhat less important 25 there how we came up with those numbers is somewhat less important than the key point for us to remember is that stocks are significantly more volatile than bonds which i'm sure is quite obvious to many people and that's probably obvious even if we don't know what the individual standard deviation numbers are okay but either way so let's imagine that the stock market has a bad month a really bad month and stocks crash well or at least they have a giant pullback well let's imagine that our stocks all of a sudden have a quick drop of let's say eight percent over the course of a month over the course of a day or a week whatever it is doesn't matter stocks drop eight percent hypothetically bonds our bond portfolio our bond piece of the portfolio is up two percent now i want to be clear that i am way oversimplifying how this works i'm not taking into any of the other important factors things like correlation or anything along those lines i'm just trying to illustrate the fact that you know perhaps if stocks are down 8 maybe bonds are down 2 or stocks are up eight maybe bonds are up two you know or some variation of that there's a lot of factors to it but just to over simplify the example we're going to say that stocks are down eight bonds are up two which is very possible that as stocks begin to crash well people retreat to they have a flight to safety and they head into bonds so you're going to see possibly some increase in bond prices okay but now here's the important part don't forget we are equally weighted we own fifty percent stocks and fifty percent bonds but because stocks are so much more volatile than bonds well the movement of the stocks is ultimately guiding mostly what happens to our portfolio so stocks what happens in stocks ends up sort of whiplashing around our overall portfolio so in this example where stocks are down eight percent and bonds are up two percent well it's not like we broke even it's not even like we're still fairly far down even though our portfolio is 50 50 weighted now our real question is how could we have made this portfolio that we would not have been hurt nearly as much by the impact of stocks well using this very same example what if we didn't have fifty percent stocks and fifty percent bonds because stocks are four times more volatile than bonds yeah because stocks are four times more volatile than bonds shouldn't we hold four times more bonds so if we had eighty percent bonds and twenty percent stocks well just like that be now our standard deviation was five we have four different units of that so now essentially have an equal standard deviation now we are weighting our portfolio by risk not by asset class so going back to our all-weather portfolio here well this is exactly what ray dalio did when we said that there's 25 in each portfolio well that is 25 of the portfolio's risk so in theory each of the portfolios are adjusted it is not 25 in each of these asset classes it is 25 of their contribution to the total risk of the portfolio this makes the downside much more minimal and the returns much more consistent now as far as how we as individuals can implement this type of strategy given that this portfolio this fund that ray dalio runs is a hedge fund and most of us cannot invest in it well there ray dalio has teamed up with tony robbins to talk about how we could create this type of portfolio in a simplified manner okay so to build this portfolio using nothing but etfs we're going to break our portfolio into three main sections our first section this is this is the risk-weighted portfolio for the our own all-weather portfolio our first section is stocks that's going to be 30 of the portfolio and we can see that with that we're going to use the vanguard total market etf ticker symbol vti okay then moving over to bonds our first section is 40 long-term bonds so that 40 is going to be in the i shares treasury bond etf ticker symbol tlt these are long-term bonds and then 15 is medium-term bonds for that we're going to use the i-shares three to seven-year treasury bond etf ticker symbol iei okay now moving over to commodities our first commodities holdings it represents about seven and a half percent of the total portfolio for that we're going to use the ishares commodity index ticker simple gsg and then finally we have gold as our final piece of the portfolio that we have another seven half percent now most places that i found talking about this most websites that i found talking about it recommend using gld that's a gold etf but i happen to know that bar is the exact same thing that's a granite shares etf i've talked about that before it is also a gold a gold etf just like gld but they charge a smaller fee than gld does and since we're getting the exact same thing i personally think bar makes more sense now this portfolio represents the risk-weighted portfolio that the all-weather portfolio essentially is doing now i know this is counter-intuitive it is counter-intuitive to me with only 30 in stocks and stocks tend to be a much sexier investment than bonds are but if we're looking for stability if we're looking for reliability this can be a fantastic type of portfolio to get us there so if anybody knows of any other etfs that could rip replace one of these etfs that offer us the broad exposure that these and etfs are trying to give us but hopefully give us they charge a lower fee please let us all know in the comments below because that could be very useful for everybody now perhaps if this strategy is a bit too conservative or maybe this is only going to be a piece of our overall portfolio i actually did another video on another strategy that does quite well called the dogs of the dow and basically it's a dividend-based strategy that also has a track record of performing very well so if you're curious i made a video on that one perhaps that could be a good next video for you to watch i got a link there i got a link in the description below and thank you so much for sticking with me all the way to the end of the video i really appreciate it thanks and i'll see in the next video
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