저자: Jimmy · 외국인
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2008 대침체 직전 시점(2007년 10월)을 가정하고, 월간 경제지표 스코어카드로 주식시장 폭락을 사전에 예측할 수 있었는지 분석한 영상이다. 스코어카드 방식: 수익률곡선, 제조업 지표(ISM), 자동차 대출 연체율, 소비자신뢰지수, CEO 신뢰지수, 주택착공 등 항목별로 상승(Bulls)·하락(Bears)·중립 점수를 매긴다. 수익률곡선: 10년물과 2년물 스프레드가 당시 약 1%p로 양(+)이었으나, 역전 후 정상화된 상태라 중립으로 평가했다. 과거 모든 미국 경기침체는 수익률곡선 역전이 선행했다고 설명한다. 제조업: ISM 제조업 지수가 50 이상이지만 하락 추세여서 약세 쪽(Bears)으로 평가했다. 자동차 대출: 90일 이상 연체율이 상승 중이라 약세 쪽으로 평가했다. 소비자신뢰: 하락 추세로 보여 중립 또는 약세 판단이 혼재했다. CEO 신뢰: 하락 추세로 명확히 약세로 평가했다. 주택착공: 2006년 이후 이미 정점을 지나 급격히 악화 중이었고 약세로 평가했다. 결론: 스코어카드는 약세 쪽으로 기울었으며, 주식시장 하락을 예측할 수 있었을 가능성이 높았다는 취지다. 이후 S&P 500은 2008년 말 크게 하락했다. 진행자는 매월 'Invest Now or Wait' 분석을 계속 하고 있다고 소개한다. ※ 본 영상은 2020년 1월 업로드된 교육용 분석으로, 대상 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hi I'm Jimmy in this video we're gonna look at the Great Recession was it possible for everyday investors to see the trouble ahead before it happened because if we could do that well imagine the money that we could have saved or even the money we could have made sort of big short style so each month on this channel we do an analysis of the US economy where we go through a handful of economic indicators to see if we think we should invest now we'll wait for the stock market to crash this is what our scorecard looks like from the most recent video and clearly we mark this one is neutral we got three points for the Bulls three points for the Bears and then we got one neutral group that's what we call the way up both in the middle there now I got some pushback on using the S&P 500 as an indicator since it's not we're not really trying to predict where the movement of the economy ultimately we're after predicting the movement of the S P itself so let's cross that one off the list okay so what we're gonna do in this video is we're going to perform this exact same analysis this is what we do each month but this time we're going to try to perform this analysis as if today were right before the stock market crashed in 2007 this is what the S&P 500 had done leading up to the Great Recession and I know we're thinking this looks very similar to today but either way our analysis is going to happen as of right here this is the very peak of the stock market if we had done this analysis at that point well what would our results have looked like being as objective as we could possibly be okay so let's go through each of these items on the scorecard fairly efficiently and fairly quickly first up we're gonna look at the yield curve so this is a chart of the difference between the ten-year Treasury and the 2-year Treasury so here's basically what we're looking for clearly the ten-year Treasury should pay a higher yield than the two years Treasury does so at this level here well the ten-year Treasury was actually paying 1% more than the 2-year Treasury would have been we expect this number to be positive well when the yield curve invert sublimate which they call an inverted yield curve well that's when this spread goes below zero which means that the two year was actually paying a higher interest rate than the 10-year Treasury once this happened a few times back here now this is crucial because every recession that the US economy has gone through has been preceded by this inversion of the yield curve now interestingly at this point in time well the yield curve is positive so we actually have a very similar situation today that the yield curve is no longer inverted but it was inverted a few months ago in that this this spread was negative a few months ago so where do we mark this on our scorecard well in the last video I actually gave this as a neutral point because it's no longer inverted and some people pointed out that because the yield curve was inverted a few months ago this should be a negative point but for the sake of trying to be as objective as possible since I did it just last month I'm gonna stick with this being a neutral point although you feel free to adjust this in your own analysis and call this a negative one if you'd like so for now we have one neutral point for the economy right bet the peak of the grade right before the Great Recession okay next up we have manufacturing now once again manufacturing in 2020 is negative we've marked it as a negative point but when we look at the ISF manufacturing indicator back in 2007 well clearly we can see that this is trending lower which is a negative thing for the economy if the economy was getting stronger we would expect for this to be at least steady if not moving higher so this looks like this is clearly going to be a point for the Bears now the key level on this particular indicator is 50 anything above 50 implies growth albeit in this case slower growth compare that to back here when it was below 50 well that was actually negative growth so that's worse now that was coming out of the tech bubble crash so best-case scenario we can call this a neutral point because it's above 50 but because this is actually trending lower I think that this is a potential problem for the economy at this point in time so I think we have to give the points to the point to the Bears okay so on our scorecard we're showing one negative point in one neutral point next up for our indicators we have an indicator that tracks the percentage of car loans where people are 90 days or more late on their car payments and the fact that this chart is moving higher right now is certainly a negative thing for the overall economy now this chart actually covers one of the shorter time periods of all the charts that I have because that's as far as as much data as I could find I couldn't find anything going back further than that but either way this point stands for the Bears since this is a negative thing for the overall economy so jumping back to our scorecard we can give another point to the Bears over here okay next up we have consumer confidence in modern times consumer confidence is actually a positive thing for the economy this is where the consumer confidence is today in 2020 but if we eliminate that well to me consumer confidence seems to be somewhat of a negative thing it seems like consumer confidence is falling leading up to this particular point in time but on the flip side we could also maybe want to say it's not as bad as it was back then so maybe it's trending higher sure it broke that trend line right here but if we were looking at this chart today I would say that I'm concerned about the confidence of the consumer as of this point in time but I would probably end up giving this one a neutral point so on with that goal of being as objective as possible I think on the scorecard it makes sense to go ahead and give this a point on the in the Nutri column but I am curious how you would mark this one up or even the yield curve would you have gone with the neutral point on the yield curve or on this particular indicator would you have gone a negative point I doubt we would have gotten positive but I guess hey anything is possible please let me know what you would have done in the comments below okay next up we have CEO confidence and when we look at this chart well clearly this is a negative point this is a point for the Bears this is a negative thing to me it's quite clear that this is trending lower and this is actually a really easy one so jumping back to the scorecard well once again this is a point for the Bears so right now it seems that our scorecard is leaning towards the Bears which is likely a bad sign for the stock market going forward okay now we're gonna look at our housing indicator now housing stock is how many new homes are being built in a given period of time and given that the Great Recession was preceded by a housing boom so the time period we've been analyzing is in theory at the very peak of a housing boom I was actually quite curious to see how this indicated how this indicator look at the peak of the stock market before the Great Recession so this is what housing stocks would have looked like in October of 2007 well clearly this is negative and this is going to be a point for the Bears and much to my surprise housing starts had peaked more than a year before this particular analysis and it was getting rapidly worse so if we were paying attention back in October when we're doing this analysis well at this point the stock market was at its peak well it may have been obvious that things were in trouble now you may notice that on each of the charts it said September and that's because I'm assuming that we're analyzing this in October and the October's numbers haven't been published yet so we would have had September either on a monthly basis or quarterly basis depending on what the indicator does that's why each of these sub say September but we're actually looking at it as if we were in October so when we go back to our scorecard well we can see that clearly there were troubling signs ahead for the economy and since the stock market tends to lead the economy well it wouldn't have taken a rocket scientist at this point to at least guess that there was trouble ahead for the stock market and if we're curious this is what the S&P 500 actually did by the end of 2008 and clearly it wasn't a good thing now I know that I mentioned that this video is designed to look at the effectiveness of our monthly invest now or wait series well we do this very same analysis each month and we're trying to objectively gauge where the economy could be going and where the stock market could be going so if you're curious well that series could be a good next video to watch might make sense to keep up with that if you are investing or if you're considering investing and I want to thank you so much for sticking with me all the way into the video I really appreciate it I hope you found this interesting thanks and I'll see in the next video
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