저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 애널리스트들의 L브랜즈(Victoria's Secret 모회사) 연쇄 상향에도 Cramer는 턴어라운드가 쉽지 않아 추격 매수에 신중하며, 점진적 접근을 권함. 배경: L브랜즈는 2019년 S&P500 하위권 부진(-29%)을 기록했고, 몰 기반 소매 약세와 Victoria's Secret 브랜드 붕괴가 문제로 지적됨. 애널리스트 상향: Bank of America(목표가 21→25달러, 배스&바디웍스 가치 강조), Deutsche Bank(분사 가능성), KeyBank(overweight 상향), Barclays(sell에서 buy로 이중 상향)가 잇따라 긍정적 견해를 냄. 핵심 근거: 주가는 약 9배 이익 수준으로 저평가, 배스&바디웍스 분사 시 가치 실현 가능성. 행동주의 헤지펀드 Barrington이 경영 개편을 압박하며 주주 가치 제고 요구. 리스크: 최근 실적은 동일점포매출 부진(4% 감소, 홀리데이 시즌 -2%)이며, 추가 배당 삭감 가능성 거론. Cramer 견해: 턴어라운드 전제 상승 베팅은 시간이 걸리며 실적 개선 증거 전에 들어가는 것은 위험. 풋/콜 옵션 사용은 비추천, 점진적 매수 또는 관망 권장. 대안으로 Bed Bath & Beyond를 언급. 기타: 갭(GAP) 매장 쇼핑 경험과 타겟(Target) 실적 부진 및 CEO 브라이언 코넬 관련 일화를 언급했으나 투자 판단과 직접 연결은 약함. 출연자: Jim Cramer(CNBC Mad Money 진행자). 사회자 발언 제외.
다듬은 글
a funny thing happened over the last few weeks the anime is falling in love with one of 29 teens biggest losers couldcould l brands okay that's a pair of Victoria's Secret and Bath and Body Works this thing was the fifth worst performer in the SP 500 last year down more than 29 percent to reappear with SB gain 29% Elbrus is exactly the kind of mall based retailer that is mightily struggling in the recent years same store sales they are atrocious the future looks grim the CEO Leslie Wexner who'd been a fabulous money maker long term has really folded of late kind of lost the touch he's got this very distracting connections late Jeffrey Epstein yet so far this month the stocks been on a roll it is caught not one not two not three but four upgrades right now including a rare sell to by double upgrade from Barclays yesterday that brought me to thinking we got a look into what's happening here I mean what is going on first thing I understand where these upgrades really caught me by surprise see Elbrus it's practically a disaster area stocks plunged from 98 dollars in 2015 after 20 and changed today they have a major presence in shopping malls all over the country especially Victoria's Secret so the steady decline of the morale has crushed them okay their location is bad we've seen this story before more based retailer can't adapt to the new e-commerce based world rarely as well but it's not just that it's not just a location problem copies also made some serious blunders over the over the years Julia recently as two years ago management was openly shunning digital expansion strategies with CEOs Baxter definely predicted that America's obsession with their smartphones would fade away that was an unbelievably bad call worst of all over the past two or three years the Victoria's Secret brand it just collapse they're already struggling but things have gotten much much much much much much worse I think it just doesn't really fit in the current site guys maybe that's why they cancelled their annual Fashion Show last year well we're all hot that was like all the guys at Wall Street would sit around the terminals really pathetic meanwhile there's a ton of new competition especially from companies that were designed to operate online like third love true and company trust that's from tuti's and Nick's among others I'm not all that familiar with those but my crackerjack staff has filled me in it that's right of course this has been going on for a long time but management attempts to turn things around they've repeatedly failed hey in the fall 2018 all brands sold off less sins of their Canadian lingerie business for 700 million that's good money then they fired the CEO of Victoria's Secret then they blindsided many investors by cutting the divot in half I didn't like that it responds to stock out of Israel since that el Perez keeps reporting disappointing numbers especially from Victoria's Secret although it's worth noting that bath and Bodyworks which I like to shop at by the way is doing very well still the overall business though is a dog so you gotta ask yourself where are all these bullish analysts coming from all right I think the Bulls they need proved to be ill-advised but they do have a thesis they've got a thesis see 10 months ago an activist hedge fund I know called barrington capital got involved they sent a letter or less baxter demanding some major changes to unlock shareholder value they've done many of these in response the company appointed a couple of new directors recommending some corporate governance reforms and what Barrington as an advisor that prevented a proxy fight at least for the time being then Outbrain supported a better than for your quarter last May stock we've added to the high 20 so the analyst will quick to point out these results were powered by heavy promotional activity they were giving out incredibly deep discounts to get people in the stores clear the inventory by August Elle brands was able to deliver a bottom line beat but the same store sales were horrific down 4% imagine whose guidance for the next quarter was terrifying so the stock got slammed in September management held an analyst being that a lot of people were very excited about landed with a thud after that though the stock started bouncing in November the company reported some better than feared numbers but when you Joe down the quarter still had a lot of problems and the most recent results reported to week sale they were downright disappointing all brands did not have a good holiday season same store sales down 2% although we've seen other guys had pretty bad numbers too Kohl's CEO al CEO ALS know Oh HLS now still the bath and Bodyworks business has been remarkably consistent maybe even resilient us a better world if you could own that separately from Victoria's Secret I think would be great stock then one of the activists at Barrington written the herbs management just to break up the business I think Bath & Body Works is thriving because it appeals the millennial love for self care this is a brand that's now as in as Victoria's Secrets is very much out I want to own a standalone Bath & Body Works but we don't have one which brings me to the bookcase On January 3rd Bank of America kicked things off up credit all brands to buy and raising the price target from 21 to 25 their argument they say Bath & Body Works is the best-in-class asset and they believe management has a lot of different opportunities that unlock failure I totally agree with that in particular they're hoping for a bath & Bodyworks spinoff I agree with that that's from Victoria's Secret that could be a very positive being positive channels to of it get so bad that management has to completely rethink the brand next when January 10th Deutsche Bank they took out brands from whole Dubai even as they cut the early specimens to the wake of it not so high holiday sales work now this was one of those outright in is so bad that it's good call as they see it the week results make a breakup more likely you know some point that's it I thought that the stand so agreement with that activist firm i mentioned Barrington it expires next month so they can start pushing for a split I think that that's very important to the zeitgeist of the analyst this past Tuesday Key Bank upgraded album L brands from equate to overweight their argument may sound familiar a quote we believe that the start differential in performance between Victoria's Secret and bath & Bodyworks and lack of any discernible turnaround at Victoria's Secret make some value creating transaction more likely end quote finally and this was the one that I just said alright alright alright come on let's do a piece of this Barclays came out with a coveted double upgrade yesterday that's when you get a sell directly to buy don't go to hold do not pass go and they're making the same cases everybody else I mean here's how we they put it and I'm gonna quote we believe changes afoot well they cannot be certain what form change will take what we can say is the status quo is not an option unquote and look I get where they're coming from all brands appears to be cheap trading at nine times earnings they don't need to get much right for the stock room tour or higher and a spin-off to unlock the value of Bath & Body Works would be a home run I do think someone is in something is in the worship or you wouldn't get such a flurry of upgrades it just doesn't happen but here's the problem turnarounds take time and you can lose a fortune while you're waiting for an intractable management to do the right thing even then I don't think it'll happen overnight and I wouldn't be surprised if there's another dividend cut because the pain from Victoria's Secret is so severe if it gets any worse I think the business will be losing el ransom money of course if you're going to bet on a turnaround you have to get in early before there's any significant evidence that things are getting better but considering the recent track record of El brands at this point after all these upgrades I'm a tad wary about jumping on the Polish bandwagon these analysts are rushing upgrade the stock at this point seem I don't know after the run let's call it over sell us the bottom line now if you really want a better on the comeback hit all brands I'm good I'll bless it after all these upgrades but just remember turnarounds can be very tough and please please please only buy this one gradually or you know we got to see options action the show you maybe you want to do it with calls and I don't recommend calls at all but at least you downsize protected but you know what if you really want to buy a turnaround could you go back to the one that I've been recommending since I don't know 13 could you go back to Bed Bath & Beyond now that's another struggling retailer it's much further along its turn and as a clear flight path and better management to steer it there b-b-b why okay let's go to Charles in New York Charles hey Jim there's one thing is this is a good time to get into the gap they just decided they don't want to spin out old lady is it a good entry point here you know I looked at I did a lot of work on it and my problem is once again why would you buy a faltering retailer that has a existential crisis we have too many stores in this country okay some of this too many too many stores RL brands another part of the too many stores are got now I went to gap I did a thorough deep dive a gap when I was in San Francisco because that's where it's from and you know what I bought it a lot of jeans I bought a lot of shirts it was expensive and no one said a thing about it and they looked at it was like yeah and I just feel like it's like huh I mean you gotta get more than yeah I mean I'm looking at my protective producer Regina Gilligan I spent a fortune against it she ever say Wow Wow to me killing you look good no nothing nada I wish I hadn't spent the money I should've watched the jeez I had Jay yeah there you go what did she say nothing nothing Rianne as they say in France Jason in Pennsylvania Jason hey Jim Jason longtime viewer first-time caller here good my question is about target this year they've given up about 15 points as a market of 3% the other day I was going to buy them us at the dip after looking at our 3-month chart but then I pulled up their six-month chart ray I was getting ready to buy it and I saw your classic head and shoulders dark this is me Jason Jason Jason listen to me that was bad what happened at Target Brian Cornell who was a good guy has to come home at money and explain a little more how this was the second Christmas in a row that we wouldn't care for and by the way this was a major gap this was not a little miss this was a major gap I want Brian on the show why because he was kind enough to admit listen I didn't do it right walk us through it Brian let us go to that fabulous store you have on Flatbush shot Busch Avenue in Brooklyn and lay out the case about why it's okay to be in torreón because right now I don't have one I'd rather see in Home Depot we're warm up all right now the analysts are suddenly in love with this thing is L brands yeah it's got some decent things but you know what the main thing is has got to break up and then I don't even know what's gonna happen huh look a turnaround is really hard so if you want to do it by gradually I prefer to do it cause remember I'm not saying no to this I'm just saying we're a little late right much more mad ahead schools back in session I'm turning in tonight's homework and it could make you money there's a real good stock that war and recommended by that way that's one with a W it's a LW like the law then there's a portfolio out what it takes to handle the unknowns in the market yeah let me be the judge we're gonna play the most popular game I've been playing it now for you know 19 years and it's called my reverse effect I mean I my diversify and oil costs rapid-fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round she never looked at the gap closed I bought and I spent $200 stay with Clav
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