저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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스냅(Snap) 턴어라운드 스토리를 낙관적으로 평가하는 영상입니다. 결론: 스냅 주식은 아직 상승 여력이 남아 있다고 봅니다. 주가 흐름: 2019년 약 550원(주가 기준 5.5달러 수준 표현 아님, 자막상 'from 550 to 16'으로 $5→$16 수준) 부근에서 2019년 한 해 약 3배 상승, 현재 19달러 부근에서 20달러 근처. 과거 부진 원인: 상장 후 성장 둔화, 적자 지속, Instagram의 스토리 기능 복제, 킬리 제너 발언 이후 주가 6% 하락 등. 반등 근거: 분기 실적 연속 컨센서스 상회, 적자 축소 및 4분기 흑자 가능성, 2021년 주당순이익 0.28달러 → 2022년 0.56달러 → 2023년 0.92달러 추정치 제시. 매출 성장: 2018년 4분기 36%에서 최근 분기 50%로 가속. 제품 개선: 안드로이드 앱 재설계 성공(2019년 5월 다운로드 4,100만 건), iPhone 개선으로 사용자 참여도 회복. 광고주 반응: 광고주 설문에서 10%가 13~34세 브랜딩 캠페인에 스냅 사용 응답, 베어 설문에서 25~34세 참여도 증가 확인. 애널리스트: 여러 증권사 상향 및 Jefferies 등 긍정 평가. 밸류에이션: 향후 이익 추정치 대비 약 21배 수준으로 여전히 매력적이라고 평가. 리스크: 매출 성장률 둔화 가능성(대수의 법칙), Facebook·Twitter·틱톡 등 경쟁, 2023년 주당순이익 추정치 달성 여부. 실행 전략: 2020년 2월 4일 실적 발표 전 보유 목표의 절반 매수, 실적 발표 후 주가 하락 시 추가 매수. 추가 언급: 로쿠(Roku) 역시 10월 119달러 부근 매수 사례가 소개되며 실적 발표 전 절반 매수 전략을 제시. 반도체 업종 진입 시점에 대한 언급도 예고됨.
다듬은 글
if you want to pick individual stocks and you know I think that alongside index funds stocks are the best way to manage your money if you have the time in the inclination then you need to know what works that's why I'm always searching for examples for case studies that can illustrate how a beaten-down company can change its stripes because some of the biggest wins I've ever had were turnaround stories and right now there's an incredible turn going on for some time in snap that's right the parent of snapchat not only was snapped the hottest comeback of 2019 with the stock to this church from 550 to 16 over the course of last year nearly a triple but the social media play just keeps roaring climbing all the way to 19 as of today Dorothy's now in the cusp of the 20s I know I'm not early here but I'm telling you I'm describing the turnaround and that would be the first time since 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if it does indeed have more room to run look at its 1925 right now and I think that it could go higher did I not do the piece here of course not you can go to Twitter and yell at me I don't care I'm chill what makes this move so remarkable a little over your the snap had been written off and left for dead I cannot emphasize this enough after coming public a great fanfare in 2017 this eagerly anticipated deal quickly turned sour as the growth Pete the losses looked endless and snaps those popular formats snapchat stories was quickly copied by Darth Vader Instagram even worse snapchat had been popular with young people and suddenly was that cool factor remember when Kylie Jenner said she didn't open snapchat anymore that caused the stock to lose 6% of its value in a day and those sellers were right because it kept getting hammered hey you don't have to keep up with the Kardashians but it sure does pay to take Kylie Jenner seriously as snaps revenue growth slowed from the triple digits down to the mid-30s by the end of 2018 well they still had no earnings in fact they didn't even have any free cash flow so there was nothing for the more value Airy and investors to seize the circle round the wagons when the growth guys got lost interest very few buyers who will you stick their necks out management seemed pretty clueless which is extra bad remember that they're deeply entrenched because shareholders don't have any meaningful voting rights and that's how the stock plunge from 29 at its 2017 peak data less than five bucks and it's 2018 lows look at that ain't no Valley low enough then last year snap got its groove back at first it was hard to understand why by the middle of last summer the stock was back up the mid-teens you gotta wonder if this was just a relief rally maybe a head-fake turns out it was the real deal snap reporter fantastic corners live made it crystal clear a term was at hand and then they did it again and that's the most crucial piece of the puzzle here first first two years as a public company no one trusted snap because they kept missing the numbers that's reasonable but over time that becomes steadily more consistent to the point where they have earned the benefit of the doubt and it now makes a habit of Smashing the estimates on top of that management's made great strides on the profitability front now there's still losing money but the losses have gotten a heck of a lot smaller in fact that may even turn a very small profit when they report their fourth quarter results the week after next by 2021 the analyst community expects snap there in 28 cents this year then rises in 56 cents a share in 2022 and 92 cents in 2023 I mean this thing is no longer an earnings black hole best of all snap as our that's accelerating revenue growth again the company's growth rate bottomed out at 36% in the fourth quarter of 2018 see stock markets anticipate the stuff over the course of last year they gradually picked up speed the most recent quarter snap had a 50 percent growth rate that is a major improvement and you know Wall Street loves to pay up for accelerating revenue growth and that's why we call it arghhhh so how do they do it how did snap make those impressive numbers happen how did this go like this all right first of all they fixed their core product yes right they fixed snapchat on Android phones even when snap came public and investors were excited about it their Android app was garbage which is not great seeing as Android is the biggest smartphone platform they try to fix it in early 2018 but that redesign only made things worse last year though snap finally figured out Android and by late May last May snapchat had 41 million monthly downloads on Android surpassing the previous record of 30 million from 2016 meanwhile they also fixed up their iPhone and the results wasn't across-the-board increase in engagement which is what matters basically snap had a user experience problem and they fixed it now here's the crucial bit the users started coming back and so did the advertisers when snap came public you know as very worried that ad agencies my sour on snapchat that is exactly what happened as its user engagement to cheer it but now that snaps Tracy Millennials and smartphone addicted Zoomers advertisers are throwing money at the guys hey by the way throw in the fact that CEO Evan Spiegel started showing a level of focus that he seemed to lack when this one came public and that's the turnaround in a nutshell the question is of course can snap maintain its momentum now in the last few weeks snap is not as part not one not two but three upgrades from major annals and one analyst initiation at outperform that's why the stock surgery nearly twenty percent just since the beginning of year that's a very big move right well Joh Jeffries went positive starting to pick up and user growth and the improve that platform as they see it snap is a clear pathway to profitability and the stock has more room to run in 2020 that's a quote very nice take Alan upgraded to based on the results of its annual at buyer survey according to their data ten percent of ad buyers say they use snap to start a new branding campaign for thirteen to 34 year olds okay so ten percent may not sound too much to you but that's ten percent of the enormous global advertising market and that's you look not going to impinge on Facebook they are doing unbelievably well but it's more than an asterisk plus the 1334 group is a coveted demographic advertisers want to get you while you're still young and persuadable then today baird published its social media survey and this really got me notices and things are looking up for snap and I quote snapchat urged surges among Millennials while subjects are the smallest improvement in overall engagement trends we noted the increase in engagement among the 25 to 34 age group was the largest single increase across all platforms and cohorts supporting our view that users will remain engaged even as they grow older and grow that's that coveted demographic again now I have some yeah to be careful if you're such a monster run I mean there are real concerns here for starters snaps in three quarters of accelerating revenue growth but eventually the law of large numbers gonna kick in numbers are gonna start slowing again making this talk less enticing meanwhile snap has some deep pocketed competitors not only do they need to worry about Facebook which I reiterate is the best-in-show and Twitter but now there's also this tick-tock and if you've never heard of a coalition kids what it really comes down to is whether or not snap can hit its own assessments copies expected to make 92 cents in 2023 this thing is trading at only 21 times the out your earnings estimates that makes it a steal even after this run but again I like to make the numbers but I think there are the estimates are too well this thing's headed to the stratosphere it's the right stock for this environment bottom line I do think the stock to snap has more upside and I am painfully aware that I'm late after this run but I don't love that it's catching so many upgrades going into this next earnings report February 4 so here's what I want you to do I recommend if you like snap putting on half your position before the quarter then the stock gets hit after the quarter you can go back back up the truck oh and Evan listen to me I know I was tough on you when the stock was getting hammered but now I'm Jimmy chill and I welcome you on the show any time to tell chromium America how you engineered this magnificent comeback I'm gonna go to Joe and Europe ease Joe hey Jim how are you I'm a little thinner thank you what's up I wanted your opinion on roku all right I went long this stock back in October around 119 and bought him some maple options and the December beginning of January to trade because this thing is so damn powerful broke he's so hard for me it's so hard because as I say endlessly I didn't like it in the 40s so Who am I to like it up here although thank heavens I do kind of realize it was going on Roku is a trade when it's down for six it always seems to work when it's up it does two seats for it but you know what who ever thought it could get to where call it a snapback this box got more upside but consider putting on half of your position before the quarter path if it gets it afterwards I wonder how I would look silly pigs I gotta try some fun now there's much one man bunny head including my exclusive with first two eyes how's the composition itself after earnings I'm breaking them down then uh is it too late to get onboard this semiconductor train a - pace throw recalls rapid-fire tonight's adjust up the lightning round so stay with flavo
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