저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 유동성 장세는 강하지만 중기 불확실성이 커 방어적 포지션을 늘려야 한다는 견해. 유동성 랠리: 강한 단기 모멘텀 때문에 유동성 흐름에 맞서기 어렵고 대부분의 자산군에서 단기 수익이 나고 있다고 봄. 다만 이는 펀더멘털 주도 랠리가 아니라 유동성 주도 랠리라고 평가함. 미 10년물 금리 1.74%, 2년물 0.21% 등을 근거로 제시. 리스크: 중국의 중위소득 전환 등 중기 불확실성, 글로벌 성장 회복 불확실, 중앙은행 효과 감소, 과잉 공급된 유동성이 최종 투자자에게 미치는 문제. 유동성이 역효과를 낼 시점은 예측하기 어렵다고 함. 전략: 유동성 파도를 타되 품질을 높여 방어적으로 가져가고 상방 여지는 유지해야 한다고 조언. 대다수는 반대로 단기 수익을 위해 품질을 낮추고 있어 연말 이후 금융 불안정 가능성 언급. 중앙은행: 라가르드의 첫 기자회견은 소통은 훌륭했으나 중앙은행 의존 탈피 메시지가 시장에 전달되지 않을 것이라고 봄. 리먼 파산 방치에 대한 라가르드의 입장은 신뢰하기 어렵다고 평가. 성장 전망: 미국 GDP는 2~2.5% 수준으로 보고 미국 경기는 걱정하지 않음. 유럽은 1% 성장의 스톨 스피드 근처라 침체 위험이 크고, 중국 성장 둔화가 주요 위험이라고 봄. 실적과 시장: 실적 성장이 마이너스인데도 사상 최고가 행진인 이유는 유동성 유입이 모든 지표를 압도했기 때문이라고 설명. 금: 몇 안 되는 헤지 수단 중 하나로 포트폴리오에 포함할 가치가 있으나 과도하게 비중을 두지는 말 것을 권고. 신종 바이러스: 저확률·고충격 이벤트로 보고 시장이 이를 조기에 무시하는 것이 합리적이라고 봄. 다만 중국 성장률을 최대 1% 깎을 수 있어 여행·무역 서비스 등에는 영향이 있을 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
joining us now to talk more about the markets is aliens chief economic adviser Mohamed el-erian Mohamed nice to see you on this Friday good morning thanks for having me are we too frothy look we are riding a massive wave of liquidity it has worked extremely well and I don't see why you would want to go against these very strong short term momentum having said that what's happening in China is yet another medium-term uncertainty so at some point we're going to have to pivot but investors right now are just happy focusing on the short term and the short term has rewarded them in virtually every asset class are you are you unveiling a new iPad later or something like that are you watching Andrew you're soakin get some this is this is this is my commitment okay - squat box I am in Michigan I didn't bring a shirt or a tie but when asked can you help us out a set sure as long as you don't see my dreams and my shoes I like the look that you're rocking today yes seriously though the biggest risk to investors right now is what do you think whereas a few one is global growth is not picking up despite optimism - it's not clear that we have stopped the globalizing three central banks are becoming less effective and four with over promised liquidity to the end investor so there are lots of those risks out there I think the major question is while riding this wave of liquidity do you go up in quality to become more defensive for the ship for the medium term or do you come down in quality to try and get more returns in the short term I offer the former I think that you should be increasingly more defensively oriented while keeping a claim on the upside but most people are doing the latter and that's why I think that late in the year we may have a lot more financial stability mohamad to the global growth point and the central bank point what did you make of Lagarde's first press conference so I think it showed she's a great communicator she gave us a little bit on the strategy review but not very much I thought it was interesting that she was upset with this notion that the central bank policy is predestined they're trying to get us away from being conditioned to expect central banks to always provide liquidity but they're not succeeding and she is trying like chairman Powell's did when he first came in to tell the markets hey you can't rely on central bank's all the time the trouble is that message isn't getting through and Lagarde is gonna face the same outcome as power in terms of markets just continuing to press central banks for more liquidity do you I would be skeptical of her saying that right when she's still someone who is very very upset with the United States for ever having let Lehman fail I mean I consider her very dumbest I don't I don't know that I would believe are either yeah and this notion in central banks that you need insurance stimulus insurance stimulus meaning it's not gonna have an immediate impact but you might as well ensure for the future is very deeply embedded and after the scare of the fourth quarter of 2018 is gonna be very difficult from central bank's to step back so you know we're gonna continue this but at some point fundamentals matter at some point liquidity becomes counterproductive look at negative interest rate and at some point investors become less risk loving we just is very difficult to call that point Mohamed it's Joe we keep talking about liquidity liquidity seems to be finding a risk appetite for growth are you concerned with that strategy maybe being a little bit too euphoric yeah look I think it's really important to look at different asset classes we tend to focus on stocks but what's the 10-year doing at 174 when stocks are doing what they're doing you know what what's the two stands doing in twenty one basis points and I think what that tells you is liquidity has lifted boats and and we have to understand that this is not a fundamentally driven rally this is much more liquidity driven gravy but you know what you continue doing what has worked well and it has been wonderful for investors so so I understand I myself continue to ride this liquidity wave but I'm doing it increasingly in a more defensive manner well where are you on US GDP for the year ahead not just for economic reasons but for the election do you think picks up a little bit of extra steam now we've got the phase 1 deal and holds pretty strong through to the election yeah I think we're looking at probably a two to two and a half percent I don't worry about the US economy when I look at the global economy but I really worry about Europe Europe is very near stall speed and that's about 1% growth and when you get to stall speed the risk of recession goes up so if you want to look at weaknesses look at Europe and then look at the mounting challenges to Chinese growth they are managing a very tricky medium-term transition the middle-income transition that is where the risks are in the global economy is not in the US mohamad if I told you you know through earnings season as far anning growth is negative yet we're gonna open this morning with another record high for stocks what do you say to that reckons how do you reconcile that I will tell you more of the same that's what we have seen previously we saw it happen last year and I can I can point to so many market anomalies correlations that have broken down and volatility that refused that refuses to step up I mean everything has broken down because the liquidity inflow has been so strong that it overwhelms everything else and it overwhelms earnings as well so you know these are all indication that we are living in this wonderful world of liquidity but be careful there is an end at some stage is just very difficult to say when what do you think of gold Mohammed so I think that there is merit in looking at at gold as a hedge that are very few hedges left out there very very few unless you can tail hedge but that's quite a sophisticated strategies so you know gold belongs in a portfolio I would just you know not go overboard on it I think the mate there's two major challenges and I think investors have to take seriously one reconciling short-term favorable momentum with mounting medium-term uncertainties and second finding some risk mitigation in out there that they can have in that portfolio that is still valued attractively though there very few risk mitigating strategies that are valued attractively right now for the retail investor and that's an issue for the long term you think the market is too complacent about this virus you look back at what happened with Ebola the S&P went down 10 percent in not that far of a period and people are saying now that stocks are ripe for a pullback they just need a catalyst do you think this could be it or no only if it really spreads you know the markets have understood that when you have low probability high impact events and this is a low probability high impact low probability in the sense that it's not likely to spread worldwide high impact that if it does then we have a major issue the market has understood that when you have that sort of mix it's better to fade it immediately and that's exactly what we've done this way it doesn't mean there's no impact you know this could knock up to 1% growth of China that's meaningful it's going to have a huge impact for those who supply travel services and internal trade services to China so it will have focused effects but I understand why the market reaction is to shrug it off and say it's contained it's isolated it's not a macro theme you
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