저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금광주가 역사적으로 극도로 저평가됐고 중앙은행은 실물금만 사고 금광사는 안 사고 있어 금광주 수익이 폭발할 것이라 주장. 유가 하락으로 금광사 2분기 실적이 크게 좋아질 것이며, 월가는 금광주를 놓쳤다. 1년 기대인플레 6.7%로 높고 연준 판단은 틀렸으며 은행 체계는 취약하다고 봄. 비트코인은 금 대비 30% 이상 하락하며 약세장이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
Really for the first time in my career, I'm actually telling people that for now, don't buy physical gold. Just wait. Because even though the gold stocks are at new 52-week highs, and they're up maybe, I don't know, 15, 20% this on their their jumping finally. But gold stocks are much lower than they were a few years ago, or 10 years ago, or even 20 years ago a lot of them.
Gold stocks are dirt cheap, and the reason for that is central banks aren't buying gold stocks. They're just buying the physical gold. But they buy the physical gold that the gold mining companies produce, and their profits are about to skyrocket because oil has never been this cheap in history relative to gold.
That is the biggest cost for these mining companies. They're trading at single-digit multiples. Gold mining stocks have never been this cheap, not only relative to gold, but relative to the S&P 500. They're giving these stocks away. When you buy gold mining companies, you're buying gold that's still in the ground.
And gold in the ground has never been cheaper in all of history than gold above ground. So rather than making, you know, 25%, make 500%, you know, by buying the gold that's still in the ground. Uh so for now, I mean, I don't know how long this sale is going to be going on. I expect a ballistic increase in these gold stocks.
I mean, that's what I've been buying myself mainly. I've been adding to my gold stock position, not my physical gold position. Buy buy everything. I own We own a lot of royalty companies. We own a lot of the exploration and juniors, the big producers. Look, the senior companies are ridiculously cheap.
Their their their earnings their Q1 earnings are going to be good, but their Q2 earnings are going to be phenomenal, the ones that started in April because of the collapse of the price of oil uh and the the rise in the the price of gold. So the the analysts are not covering these stocks. Nobody is there.
You know, the the last major uh moves were downgrades. I remember in early 2024, like February or March, they downgraded Newmont. They downgraded Barrick and to basically to sells. And the analyst said, "The reason we're downgrading is because gold's at 2,000 and we don't see any upside." Everybody thought 2,000 was the top.
And I kept saying, "No, no. 2,000 is the new floor." And and so Wall Street is completely missed the gold trade. Uh they don't have any money in these gold stocks. Again, they bought Bitcoin ETFs and all kinds of crap. You know, Bitcoin since it peaked in uh November 2021 is down more than 30% in relative to gold.
So, with all these ETFs, uh with Super Bowl commercials, uh with electing the first Bitcoin president, with a Bitcoin strategic reserve, all that hype, and Bitcoin has gone down by 30% relative to gold. And nobody wants to acknowledge that. Bitcoin is in a massive bear market, but that's one of the reasons that gold stocks are so cheap because people that should have been buying gold stocks were buying uh Bitcoin either through the ETFs or through MicroStrategy or any of this nonsense.
You know, I just came out with a special report. People can get it for free at Euro Pacific Asset Management, europac.com. A special report, the best way to buy gold, in which I really make the case that gold mining stocks have never been cheaper than they are right now, and that that's how you got to buy gold.
Even though gold's going to go up, the gold in the ground can go up much more. And then, you know, when you when you triple, quadruple your money in these gold stocks, which I think you could do very quickly, then take some profits and buy more physical. Even if the physical has gone up, it won't go up nearly as as as these stocks.
So, it's like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take advantage of the fact that everybody's been asleep. And, you know, the the central banks have been buying gold. And, they haven't had any competition from private investors. Well, when private investors wake up, you know, especially the the the endowments and the pension plans and then the hedge funds, when they finally realize that they've got [clears throat] it wrong, remember, all the experts said that tariffs would make the dollar go up.
That's how little they understand of this global relationship. Everyone, every single economist, every market strategist kept saying "Tariffs are going to be good for the dollar. Tariffs are going to be good for the dollar." I'm the only one that said no. "Tariffs [clears throat] will actually be bad for the dollar." And so, when these guys figure this out, they're going to start buying these gold stocks.
You got to buy them first. Yeah, well, the year-ahead inflation expectations now are 6.7%. And, [clears throat] I mean, this is, you know, the Fed keeps saying that expectations, long-term expectations remain anchored at 2%. What are they talking about? Nothing is anchored at 2%. We've been adrift for a long time.
And now we're at 6.7% and, you know what? It's going to be a lot higher than that. Right? The Fed is completely wrong. You know, it was about a year ago when Powell said he laughed it off. Somebody asked him, you know, "People are a little worried about stagflation." And he said, "I don't know what they're worried about.
I don't see any evidence of stag. I don't see any evidence of flation." And in fact, they don't even have a plan for stagflation. When somebody asked him about it at a press conference, he just knocked wood and said, "Well, we just hope it doesn't happen." And that's because they they can't do anything about it.
In fact, all of the stress tests that the Fed puts the banks through, when they have the most adverse economic environment, has interest rates falling sharply. Right? They've never stress tested a bank for stagflation. They've never tried to see what would happen to American banks if we had a recession with rising interest rates.
And the reason they probably never did that is because they know every American bank would fail. So, we have a completely insolvent financial system. Which is another reason that people want to pull their money out and buy gold. Uh because then, you know, you own something. You don't want to just be a creditor of an insolvent banking system.
But, rather than buying the gold, buy the gold mining companies. Cuz that's where If you want to buy gold, somebody's got to mine it, right? And there's so much gold that needs to be bought. All these central banks, if you look at the dollar reserves, especially in the emerging market economies, how much dollars they have to divest themselves of, they have to take all those dollars and turn a lot of it into gold.
The gold's not there. So, somebody's got to pull it out of the ground. And the companies that are doing that are going to make a fortune. This is one of those moments where the market is just completely missing the point. You've got central banks aggressively buying gold, not talking about it, not hyping it.
Just quietly accumulating. And at the same time, investors are chasing everything else. They're chasing narratives, momentum, whatever the next headline is. And that's exactly how mispricing happens. Because the market doesn't get things right all at once. It gets them wrong first, sometimes very wrong.
Right now, gold stocks are being ignored, not because the fundamentals are weak, but because the attention is somewhere else. That's it. There's no deep mystery here. Capital just hasn't rotated yet. But, when it does, it doesn't move slowly. It snaps. And the same institutions that ignored the space,
they're incoming all at once. Pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, they're not going to want to miss it once it starts working. And when that happens, you're not talking about small moves anymore. You're talking about repricing. Now, could this take time? Sure. Markets can stay inefficient longer than people expect, but they don't stay inefficient forever.
And when you have this kind of setup, rising inflation, a weakening dollar narrative, and a financial system that a lot more fragile than people want to admit, you don't need perfection. You just need recognition. And that's what's coming. So, the question isn't really whether gold goes higher. The question is, what happens to companies that produce it when the entire world suddenly realizes they've been underpriced this whole time? Because by then, it's already too late to get in cheap.
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