저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Schiff은 금이 최근 10년간 횡보했다고 해서 인플레이션 헤지 기능을 상실한 것은 아니며, 2001년 300달러 미만에서 2020년 2,000달러 부근까지 오른 장기 상승 흐름을 보면 현재 조정은 다음 강세장을 위한 바닥 다지기 과정이라고 주장한다. 금 가격을 지연시키는 요인은 투자자들이 연준의 인플레이션 억제 능력을 과신한다는 오해다. 명목금리 상승은 금에 중요하지 않고 실질금리가 음수인 동안 금에 우호적이라는 논리를 폈다. 인플레이션은 2%로 복귀하기보다 10% 이상으로 갈 가능성이 크다고 보았다. 연준이 금리를 인상해 줄이려는 것은 인플레이션보다 경제 버블이며, 2008년 위기 이후 회복이 인플레이션에 기반했기 때문에 기업 파산과 주식 폭락이 이어져 2008년보다 더 심각한 금융위기가 올 수 있다고 경고했다. 결국 연준은 승리가 아닌 패배 속에서 방향을 틀어 양적완화로 복귀하게 되고, 그때 달러 바닥이 빠지고 금이 급등한다는 전망이다. 달러지수는 두 달 전 약 115 부근에서 현재 105로 하락해 천장형 차트를 보인다고 했다. 금광주는 기관의 투매(52주 신저가)가 나왔으며 스마트머니는 매수 중이라고 평가했다. 장기 관점에서 정부 부채 때문에 인플레이션은 계속 올라가고, 금 기반 블록체인 토큰(금 보관 증서)이 화폐 대체재로 부상할 것이라고 주장했다. 비트코인은 투기 수요에 의존했고 실제 화폐 수요는 금 쪽에 있다고 평가했다. 금은 1~3개월 단기 방향보다는 장기 상승을 주장하는 내용이 중심이며, 금광주 및 달러 약세에 대한 견해가 함께 나타난다. 연준 양적완화 재개 시점과 달러 급락에 대한 주장은 조건부 시나리오로 제시되었다. 영상 제목(4 Minutes Ago)과 자막 내용상 리스크로는 연준 정책 전환 시점 불확실성, 금 조정이 더 길어질 가능성, 그리고 예측이 빗나갈 수 있다는 점이 있다.
다듬은 글
When people look at the last 10, 11 years in gold and they see sideways action and then they conclude that well gold is no longer an inflation hedge. It's no longer relevant because it's not going anywhere. You have to look at the last 20 years. You can't just look at the last 10. You got to go back 2001 and see that gold was under $300 an ounce in 2001 and it went from under 300 to almost 2,000 in 10 years.
That is a big move for the price of gold. Now following that move, gold did have a significant correction between 2011 and 2015. It corrected down to 1,50 but it never got back below a,000. And of course, it never went anywhere near uh the level below 300 where it began the bull market. So, gold had a correction and then it rallied up and made a new high by 2020 after CO and it's pulled back a little bit from that high but it is really consolidating the big move up from 300 to,900 been trading sideways.
It is building a new base from which the next bull market is going to be launched. And what is delaying liftoff of this gold rocket ship is a misconception on the part of investors around the world as to the real situation with inflation in the United States and the Fed's ability to put the genie back in the bottle.
Because for years the officials at the Federal Reserve were telling us that the problem was we didn't have enough inflation. Every time there's some type of evidence that the inflation problem isn't going away or is getting worse, the markets sell gold and they buy dollars. Why? Because they're afraid not of inflation, but of the Fed's fight to re inflation.
And everybody just believes, well, if we're going to have this Fed that's going to get rid of inflation, a, I don't need to buy gold, I don't need to hedge inflation because the Fed's going to get rid of it for me. And while they're fighting inflation, they're going to jack up interest rates and higher interest rates.
Well, that's bad for gold. And so, the price of gold has gone down. But none of this is true because rising nominal rates don't make a difference to gold. What matters to gold are real interest rates. And as long as they're negative, that's positive for gold. And what the markets don't understand is that inflation's not going back down to 2%.
It's more likely to go above 10% because what the Fed is going to bring down with its rate hikes is not inflation but the economy. Because this whole bubble economy has been erected on a foundation of inflation. The whole recovery from the 2008 financial crisis was built on inflation. And now that the Fed is trying to remove some of that inflation, you're taking away the foundation.
Everything come collapsing down. Stocks are collapsing. Companies are going bankrupt that never should have existed. All the debt that never should have been taken out, that was non-productive and is now no longer serviceable at a higher rate of interest, the Fed is in the process of creating a much worse financial crisis than the one that it created in 2008.
And so I think when investors start to appreciate the box that the Fed is in that it's actually going to have to pivot not in victory with inflation but in defeat. The Fed is going to have to turn its attention to stimulating the economy. And the only tool it has to do that is inflation. Every problem that the Fed has tried to solve, it's done it with inflation.
That's why this inflation problem is impossible to solve because when your only tool is inflation, how do you solve the problem of inflation with inflation? You can't. This is a problem that the Fed can't bail us out from. And when the markets wake up to this, when the Fed has to go back to quantitative easing, even though inflation is nowhere near 2%, then I think the bottom's going to drop out of the US dollar and I think gold's going to go through the roof.
In fact, we've already started to see this correction. The dollar index which was bit up to almost 115 a couple of months ago is now down to 105. That's a significant decline. The chart looks very toppy for the dollar. At the same time, gold has rallied. I think you had a major capitulation in this correction in gold.
I think a lot of the institutional money uh gave up. They they kic they threw out all their gold stocks a couple months ago. You had new 52 week lows and a lot of the big gold mining stocks. pneumont barrack and to me that was an exodus uh from the sector. Worst trade you could have possibly done. The smart money was buying up these gold stocks.
They could read the writing on the wall. And as the inflation rates move higher and there's no way these central banks are going to stop that because of the massive amounts of debt that they have. Nobody wants to raise taxes on the middle class. Nobody wants to cut spending and and and cut social security or Medicare.
So the government is going to continue to pay the bills by creating inflation. And so anybody who has dollars is going to see a significant inflation tax eroding away their value. And the same may be true for people around the world. So, they're going to be looking for alternatives uh to government money, just like people looked for alternatives to taxi cabs and they went to Uber or they looked for alternatives to a hotel and they went to Airbnb or they to look for alternatives to the post office and they started using FedEx.
They're going to go back to gold as money, but they're not going to be carrying around their gold. The gold is going to be stored with a reputable third party and that third party will issue a digital token like a bitcoin that represents ownership of that gold. The original paper currencies that circulated in the United States were issued by private banks.
The Federal Reserve wasn't created till 1913. We had paper money before 1913, but it was all issued by private banks and it was all backed by gold. And what gave the paper currency value was the gold in a vault backing it up. Well, today you can issue currency backed by gold, but you don't have to do it on paper.
You can use blockchain and issue it digitally. You could take a token that represents ownership of gold that's stored that can be transacted and used as a medium of exchange and a unit of account much faster and much quicker than you could use Bitcoin. So if I want to make a transaction over the internet and let's say I want to buy something from somebody in Australia and I want to pay him, I can instantly send him gold.
I don't have to send him the physical gold. That gold sits in a vault. What I send him is my ownership certificate digitally of that gold. And so the ownership of the gold transfers from me to the person in Australia, but the gold continues to sit in the vault. Maybe it's a Brinks vault in Switzerland, something like that.
But the ownership changes. People are going to look for alternatives and the free market will supply it. Initially, the free market supplied Bitcoin because people weren't really looking for a store of value or for an alternative medium of exchange. The demand for Bitcoin was from speculators who wanted to get rich.
That's why people bought Bitcoin so they can, you know, get a Lambo. You know, they pointed to all the people that got in and made a fortune and hey, you can too. There was no real demand to use Bitcoin as money. I mean, nobody used it as money, but there's going to be a demand to use gold as money.
People aren't going to move to gold to get rich. They're going to move to gold to stay rich or just preserve what they have. And as inflation starts to really accelerate at a higher level, I think more and more merchants are going to want to move to a gold standard. They're going to want to get paid for their goods and services in real money in gold.
And with blockchain, that's all possible. That's all easy because you can break up an ounce of gold into tiny fractions. So you don't even need copper anymore or nickel anymore or even silver. You can do all your transactions in one metal in gold. And you can do it quicker and cheaper than you can actually even in fiat currencies.
It's easier than a bank wire. It's cheaper than using a credit card to make payments.
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