저자: Kevin · 외국인
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루시드(LCID) 주가에 대한 신중·약세 시각. 2021년 인도량 목표 520대 대비 실제 인도량이 약 200대 미만으로 추정되어 연말 목표 미달 가능성을 제기. 2022년 2만대 목표는 생산능력 16배 확대가 필요해 시장이 우려할 것으로 봄. SEC 조사 관련 투자자 프레젠테이션의 단계별 생산 표현이 오해 소지가 있다고 지적. 현재 주가 36 부근이 위험 완충 구간이며 25~20달러 구간을 매수 관심 구간으로 언급. 본인은 루시드 숏/롱 포지션 없음, 테슬라 보유, 현금 비중 18%.
다듬은 글
oh man hey everyone meet kevin here in this video we gotta talk about a lucid stock ticker el said folks y'all know that i've been following lucid since the spac was just a rumor back in january of 2021 we saw and lived the explosion together of lucid stock going to the freaking moon shortly after the spac actually became a confirmed spec of course the price then plummeted after we found out that a different valuation was being chosen for lucid which we called on this channel we said the worst case potential worst case potential change here would be a change in valuation that's exactly what lucid pulled off to raise more money now i couldn't blame them for that but i saw the writing on the wall that is exactly what happened and then lucid ended up falling into the lucid and eevee bear market of the summer that's when tesla lucid and other evs were kind of just hated and this is normal like in my opinion we go through what i call ev super cycles where like you go through these three months where everybody just wants lucid rivie and tesla oh my gosh gotta have it all or last year for example it was oh my gosh gotta have gotta have neo and and x-ping and lee otto and nicola and tesla i know i even mentioned nicola in that one hey you know it was in motion okay it was in motion at the time that's all i got to say but anyway in this video we got to talk a little bit about updates because we are kind of potentially at the tail end of a little bit of an eevee super cycle here we started seeing prices kind of fall a little bit i have mentioned some of my suspicions about lucid's capability of actually delivering according to their promises in multiple live streams over the past few weeks the stock has trended down since then i do not currently hold any investments related to lucid whether short or long i do hold tesla investments to be fair but i don't hold any other ev investments at the moment so i want to be extremely transparent about that but i don't think that makes me a lucid bear because i've got three sets of insight and then we're going to talk about the sec investigation first set of insight back when i ordered my lucid air dream edition i was told that lucid was quote we're expecting somewhere under 1 000 vehicles to be delivered this year with the first 520 being dream editions so the target was a little under a thousand vehicles this year with the first 520 being dream editions okay got it uh an accurate window for my delivery would have been two to four months this was set on september 27th that means somewhere between november 27th and january 27th would be an expectation for a delivery of my lucid obviously i was hoping that it would be this year for potential tax benefits but so far i have no indication that my lucid is anywhere close now technically we still got about seven weeks to go but my car would have to go into production i get notified as soon as it goes into production so i could pay and sign a contract for it and then i'd get it but somebody who's way ahead of me in the process was told they would be getting their delivery in november and they already signed a contract and already paid for their car they fully paid for their car and signed their contract for a november delivery and it's now december 7th and they still don't have their tesla sorry their tesla they still don't have their lucid air dream edition so my guess is we're probably one at least one to two months maybe even three months behind and that is a total guess on deliveries now when i kind of take this information and i correlate it to what i see going on on twitter what i see here is a hot off the press picture from lucid this is at their arizona factory and uh personally i didn't think the picture was very flattering i think they should have done like a much closer up picture where people couldn't count that it's just three rows of 17 cars which quite frankly three rows of 17 cars what is that 51 51 uh cars is sort of a batch we don't know if this is a weekly batch or what if it's a weekly batch it could be good but we don't think it is given that this was posted on november 30th and so far we've only had really one big delivery event of about 50-ish cars uh not great that means maybe we've certainly delivered under maybe not certainly but we believe we've delivered under about 200 lucids so far since we started deliveries in september which is not ideal because lucid is trying to get to 520 by the end of the year i think they're going to miss this uh in addition to that if you search to uh l-sit on twitter there are actually some very useful individuals who have been posting drone shots like for example here was an 80 count on december 1st presumably these are the same 51 plus a little bit of extra which is good so maybe another you know almost 30 vehicles here 29 vehicles that's great and then you do have somebody here posting drone flyovers here's a december 6 shot which does show at least some of the cars have either been moved or distributed we're not exactly sure if these are new cars or just moved around cars uh we cannot verify this information at all but certainly it looks like there there are dozens of vehicles moving here right from everything that we can tell just by kind of stocking the lucid pictures it is a clear expectation that we're almost likely going to miss the 520 vehicle delivery but okay who cares like companies miss deliveries right that's like normal if you're investing in evs it's just like a duh it's a no-brainer it's not that big of a deal the problem with lucid is going to be how much that they end up potentially missing by i'm concerned if lucid was projecting uh deliveries of just under a thousand with the first being 520 lucid air dream editions that they might miss substantially and that if they end up delivering by the end of the year for whatever reason less than half of that personally i think the stock is going to be in a world of hurt if they miss by anything more than 10 percent which would be 520 times 0.9 anything more than a 10 percent miss which would bring you to about 468 i think would would be a cause for at least some negative pressure for the stock but quite frankly i think that's the threshold where it's like you could probably be break even at that amount mostly because look even delivering 468 cars when you just turned your factory on in like september is really good quite frankly lucid is mostly performing any kind of delays would just be a temporary setback in the stock price and i can't really fault them for delays especially since so many of them are probably out of their control uh lucid does have i think uh little rosy projections of 20 000 deliveries for next year and this makes me most nervous for lucid over really the next six months that means q4 q1 and q2 the reason for that is investors are probably going to extrapolate q4 production and try to figure out what the goal is going to be for 2021 and see this is where it becomes painful let's say we only deliver 400 lucids in 2021 and that took let's say three months to hand well let's see september october november december four months four months to handle that would be about a hundred vehicles per month well a hundred vehicles per month times 12 is 1200 vehicles they're trying to get out 20 000 next year which 1200 vehicles is six percent of that and if i divide the other way 1200 vehicles that's uh 16 times fewer vehicles so they need to ramp up their production by 16x and i think the stock market is going to vomit over this stock not 16xing their production capabilities probably honestly until q3 or q4 of next year so that 20 000 could potentially end up being a big miss and i think that that is what the stock market is going to try to price in and i do think that there could be a larger draw down and loosen again i'm not confident enough to say i'm jumping into to like short lucid i also don't want to come across as a lucid bear although i don't like to let social media or my emotions affect my investments i just want to be clear like these are just some concerns that i have and i'm looking for a dip opportunity looking at the chart and then we're going to talk about the sec looking at the chart personally i think the best entry point for lucid i mean best case scenario there's a two in the front it's under 30.
it to me is the best case scenario this is the lucid chart we obviously see momentum declining somewhat we've had a little bit of a risk off momentum in the last few weeks so personally this decline here is not even deliveries based this is just risk off this is just trader momentum moving out of the stock because it's not just only going up to the moon anymore so that means we like at a natural point without death like disappointment might end up settling somewhere around that 36 level uh without disappointment if we continue with a risk-off sentiment uh if uh if we continue with with you know euphoria then obviously everything i'm saying here doesn't matter but i say risk off environment we settle around 36.
disappointment disappointment's going to be what pushes us under 30 and we could revisit that you know 20 to 25 range that's probably the range in which i'd be a buyer and uh certainly under 20 it's a back up the truck because now you have the risk eliminated that this company will ever produce a car right that's always been a big fears like are they ever even gonna make a car right they are so like huge risks have been removed from the marketplace they're delivering cars and you're not hearing about the cars bursting into flames or massive problems with the first deliveries this is actually very good and very bullish so any kind of potential negative projections that come out over lucid uh really between q4 and at the beginning of q2 after the q1 earnings probably overblown and and negative but uh it's entirely possible that management could uh get you know they could say the right things and end up preventing a stock fall so there's no guarantee that lucid's going to come down but uh for me i'm not going to make a bet that they won't so i'm going to wait i'm going to be a little patient in this market so i'm at 18 cash right now in terms of my market investments this is kind of where i've been for about the last month yeah and i've been kind of diversifying some of my investments a little bit picking up opportunities uh taking profits on some but i'm ready to do some dip buying and certainly if we get larger dips i'd be a happy buyer now another thing to consider though is the sec investigation into lucid and so what i did is i went back to the investor presentation that lucid put together in february of 2021 and i was really trying to look at this from the point of view of like an sec investigator and i am not obviously and i'm like what did they say that's maybe wrong and i thought okay well 32 sensors on board planned level two autonomous launch well level two autonomy just means you have like brake assist and maybe steering assist like as soon as you have two things you have level two autonomy right uh so i mean i don't know if the headlights are any different i mean certainly if the battery were different i imagine we would have heard something about that but otherwise a lot of the things that i've seen in this investor presentation isn't exactly overly euphoric there are some things though where i can show you some projections and that that is potentially where you get a little bit of where the sec might be raising their eyebrows personally i would probably say that this is the biggest issue that i found right here so here they mentioned that phase one is complete 34 000 units a year folks we're producing like a hundred cars a month if that i think this was probably the literal worst thing they could have done like this is the biggest sec firepower that you could possibly imagine here uh now they did say up to in fairness they said the words up to but they said phase one complete up to 34 000 a year complete that's not good i i don't love that then they did say that they're working see currently being implemented phase two 90 thousand units a year folks you're not there that's not true not only are you not there but you definitely weren't there in february when you put this together uh i mean again they said up to but when when you say currently implementing phase two it implies that phase one is done and this is probably the dirtiest achilles heel out of this entire investor presentation but beyond that i will say a lot of the projections were mostly uh generic i mean a generic you know total addressable market projection here was where you could have done a little bit of projecting so they give the lucid air plan market share remember there are multiple different editions of the air but i grabbed a little bit of statistics from bloomberg nef and as of november 12th they reported that global ev sales that are not zero emission vehicles just total emission like electric vehicles which includes hybrids uh total ev sales are about 13 million so global fleet's about 13 million we saw 2 million sales of evs globally in 2019 3.1 in 2020 expecting 5.6 in 2021 so almost a double there right so you're seeing this massive growth in vehicle uh electric vehicle sales here a lot of them of course zero electric zero emission electric vehicles but the big thing here is elusive projection of how many vehicles they think they can deliver they think that they can deliver well they say planned market share after launch they think if we further project how many vehicles would be produced potentially within a 40 growth rate in 2022 they think they can get a 0.6 market share that would work out to about 48 000 vehicles i mean you know maybe they can make the argument here that hey well we base this point six percent off of four million global electric vehicle sales which fine that might work but if you go based off eight mil a little stretchy 48 000 dreams in 2022 right now y'all are forecasting 20k and even that's not certain so uh this one i i could see lucid having an argument with though because you know it depends on what your global projections are for evs in terms of your market share but i wouldn't be surprised if this raises some eyebrows at the sec but i don't really see this one as being that bad like i said most of the things that i see in here i don't really see is that terrible like their revenue projection if you take a you know 2000 or 2.2 billion dollars of total revenue and you compare that to 20 000 vehicles that works out to about 110 000 on average per car okay sounds reasonable advanced manufacturing plant is scheduled to begin production in the second half of 2021 well they did they did what they said they would do lucid air deliveries expect the second half of 2021.
well they did they literally did that you know so that's not that's not that bad uh you know there were a few other notes that i made previously on valuation but really much of the investor presentation even though i hate spac investor presentations i wasn't horribly offended by it i think the biggest achilles heel out of the whole thing is this i think the build-out phases were kind of dumb uh now it's possible and again maybe this is this is their their justification maybe they'll just say hey like we're just talking about having the walls up like we put the walls up that are capable of 34 000 units a year but they didn't say that and sec investigations often come down to whether or not what investors are being told or led to believe is honest and fair now remember the sec is not charged with the responsibility of making sure that your investments that you're making are good investments their job is checking to see if you're making an honest investment and so that's kind of where implications matter if you're implying that you can do 34 000 units a year and that phase is done and now you're on to the you're building out the 90 000 units per year cycle and potentially that's what investors you know invested in then that's a problem if that's what investors believe it's kind of like if investors believe that the nikola one is a functioning vehicle because it's rolling down a hill and we think it has a hydrogen motor in it like that's like that's big when you just towed it to the top of the hill and rolled it down yeah so so anyway that is probably the biggest achilles heel in this investor presentation uh in this slide deck here again it's a pro forma i i imagine there are a million disclosures at the end of this thing that that uh are you know loopholes about some of these these things here but uh no no footnotes on this page i do think this is the most risky page here and i do think that deliveries are going to miss so when i combine these two things for me lucid is a weight not a no it's just a matter of being patient and hey you know what i wish the best for lucid because i think they are the first non-tesla uh fully electric vehicle company a new one aside from tesla that uh that that might stand the test of time and i'm also looking forward to their potential partnerships for uh autonomous driving technology whether that's nvidia qualcomm apple whoever's got the tech and uh wants to put it in a car and remember just because like if nvidia decides to partner let's just say with lucid it doesn't mean that nvidia can't also partner with a bunch of other companies right i doubt they're gonna be any kind of exclusive relationships here but uh car wise i'm excited i'd love to get my car this year but uh i'm not holding my breath anyway those are my thoughts i appreciate you
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