저자: 미상 · 외국인
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이 영상은 피터 린치의 저서 'Beating the Street'에 나오는 일화를 바탕으로 한 교육용 해설이다. 핵심 결론: 복잡한 투자보다 이해하기 쉬운 단순한 기업에 투자하는 것이 시장과 대다수 펀드를 이길 수 있는 방법이다. 일화 소개: 보스턴 Agnes Scott 계열 초등·중학교(영상에서는 7학년 반)의 학생들이 피터 린치에게 투자 포트폴리오를 보내 주목을 받았다. 린치는 이 사례를 통해 투자 원칙을 더 정교하게 다듬었다. 린치의 원칙: 크레용으로 설명할 수 없는 기업에는 투자하지 말라는 규칙을 만들었다. 워런 버핏의 '7피트 장대 대신 1피트 장대를 넘어라'는 비유도 같은 맥락으로 소개된다. 단순함의 중요성: 복잡하고 이해하기 어려운 사업이나 새로운 벤처보다, 이미 돈을 벌고 있고 성장 가능성이 눈에 보이는 기업이 낫다는 논지다. 학생 투자 방식: 교사가 학생들을 팀으로 나누고 가상 자금 25만 달러를 주었다. 학생들은 비즈니스 신문과 일간지를 보며 자신들의 '능력 범위(circle of confidence)' 안에 있는 기업을 골랐다. 사례 기업: Penn Tech(색연필·마커 제조사)는 학생들이 추천했으나 린치가 매수하지 않았고, 1~2년 만에 주가가 두 배가 되어 린치가 아쉬워했다고 소개된다. 포트폴리오 성과: 학생 포트폴리오는 약 70% 수익을 냈고, 같은 기간 S&P 500은 약 26% 수익을 기록했다. 월마트(+164%), 나이키(+178%), 월트디즈니(+340%) 등이 편입되었다. 실패 사례: IBM, Mobil 등은 뉴스와 대형 펀드의 매수를 따라 고른 종목으로 성과가 저조했다. 대형 펀드를 따라가는 것이 항상 좋은 선택은 아니라는 교훈이다. 리스크 및 조건: 단순하고 예측 가능한 기업 투자가 강조되며, 5~10년 뒤 수익을 낼지 불확실한 복잡한 사업은 피하라고 권한다. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
peter lynch so peter lynch in the book called peter lynch beating the street he talks about a seventh grade class that actually beat the s p and beat 99 of mutual funds so this goes back to the saying of that keeping it simple is so key in investing and this seventh grade class called say agnes in boston massachusetts basically sent peter lynch an illustration book of all their investments and peter lynch was really intrigued about this and how they beat the street and he wanted to learn from these seventh graders and this just kind of proves to appear that you're just saying man like the you don't need a wharton mba you don't need a bloomberg terminal you don't even need a driver's license and you can beat wall street and 99 of the funds out there by just keeping it very simple and this was actually a test done by uh insane agnes the ceo joanne so joanne was running the class right and she just wanted to test the theory if a bunch of seventh graders can beat uh beat the street and beat the s p and when peter lynch got this illustration book and he found out what they did he was he wasn't shocked but it just kind of gave him more rules to evaluate and to put in place so one of the rules that he came up with after this whole kind of saga was never invest into a company if you're not able to illustrate it with a crayon so if you can't and you can't illustrate your investment idea with a crayon man this investment might not be for you and this just goes back to keeping it very simple warren buffett has said this so many times why jump over a seven foot bar where you can jump over a one foot bar guys we don't you don't make more money if you invest in something more complicated something more hard to understand or a new business venture peter lynch talks about just investing in something that's already generating money that you can already see the future potential growth instead of investing into this new shiny toy and this is what he talks about in this little kind of like paragraph section in this book so this is how joanne taught her class so basically she had a group of kids going to teams with four students of each team with a theoretical 250 000 and she she taught the kids basically how to uh look at the business daily journals and basically uh newspapers to actually find potential investments so the students would actually go over a lot of potential investments and look at what they kind of know in their circle of confidence and remember guys this was a seventh grade class so when it comes to a seventh grade class their circle of confidence is probably gonna be in more simple things and that's basically what the theme of it all was is basically buy what you know so each team came up with a potential investment to actually put into a scrapbook to be uh not uh analyze with basically you got to look at actually the earning potential and the relative strength of the company so when they came to an agreement they actually put each company into a scrapbook but remember guys the main theme of this was buying what you know and the kids were seventh graders so you know they get they're not gonna be buying these extravagant kind of companies they're gonna buy like pizza companies uh trading card companies like stuff like that so just remember that was the main theme of what the teacher was doing with the students so for example one of the companies that the students picked was a company called penn tech and basically it was just a simple company uh it created popular like colored markers and uh colored uh pens and stuff like that and the cup when they looked into the company it was a relatively small company it had no debt um i had a strong return on equity so you can understand that it was very popular in that in that little classroom that they had and all the kids had it so they probably thought it was popular elsewhere so that's like this is one example of a company they picked that was very close to the kids and then what happened with that company that actually doubled in like a year or two so that company doubling the year into and peter lynch kind of regret not actually buying that stock because the kids actually recommended that stock to him and he didn't want to go into it and that company doubled like in a year so peter lynch was really regretful for not buying that company at that time when the kids actually gave him that recommendation so the saint agnes portfolio with the kids actually got a 70 return and that actually the s p did around 26 return in 1990 okay so we're gonna go over what companies did they buy so let's get it so the first company that they bought was actually walmart at 164 return nike 178 return walt disney 3.4 uh limited uh 6.8 la gear 6 64.3 pintech 53 gap 320 320 pepsico 63 food lion 146 percent tops 55 savannah foods 38 ibm 3.6 uh ny and ex 20.22 and mobile uh 19.1 so a total return of 69 uh to the s ps 26 so guys just look at these companies look how simple these companies are like these kids know these companies and when you think about it the companies that they kind of really did bad on were companies that they researched in the daily news and what kind of the big investors were actually getting into kind of like uh ibm and uh mobile so those companies they actually researched that actually using like the uh news articles which a majority of these funds are buying so you kind of you kind of see that sometimes following these big funds and what they're buying is not the best bet all the time so you can understand like they bought walmart nike walt disney that's definitely in every single kids circle of confidence and that's what they do they shop there their parents shop there they buy nike shoes they understand walt disney uh limited they know allie gear pentech that's the uh the company i was just talking about uh gap they shop at pepsico uh food lion uh tops like all these like all these companies like tops a trading card company savannah foods they know those companies because they actually uh looked in the investors daily journal and they saw it through like um a program that they were watching so you can just see that these all these companies are so simple and these are the companies that are gonna generate high returns because these are companies that you can see uh being very reliable so you can see how these kids are investing in these simple predictable companies there was actually a group of four other children that actually picked better stocks than those ones they picked like companies like kellogg's and they picked uh they had walt disney they had hasbro like a toy company everyone knows about it so you're gonna see what they're doing they're picking simple predictable easy to understand companies and that's the main thing i want people to get in this video and how we can actually kind of continue that and not have to invest in these crazy operations and crazy ventures that you don't know if they're gonna be able to make money five ten years down the line okay guys that's it for this video if you liked it can you i'm out peace
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