저자: CharlieMunger인터뷰재구성-진행자Just-Invest채널추정 · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거는 스팩·IPO·비트코인·로빈후드식 투기 열풍이 버블이며 끝이 나쁠 것이라 보지만 시점은 모른다고 말함. 스팩·IPO 버블: 멍거는 현 시장 투기가 '버블의 징후'이며 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이라 답했다. 이익은 투자은행이 가져간다는 취지로 설명했다. 영상 진행자는 이를 근거로 폭락 가능성을 강조. 금리·현금: 금리는 이미 최저 수준이라 추가 인하 여력이 적다는 주장. 현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash)라는 멍거 발언을 인용, 인플레이션 속 현금 보유 손실을 지적. 기술주 밸류에이션: 성장률 20~30% 기업 PS가 높게 형성된 만큼 과거처럼 싸게 살 수 없을 수 있다는 진행자 해석. 안전마진 50% 확보가 어려워졌다고 봄. 비트코인: 멍거는 금과 유사하다고 보며 변동성이 커 통화로 부적합하다고 평가, 본인은 사지 않는다고 함. 진행자는 정부 개입 가능성으로 비트코인 매력이 훼손될 수 있다고 봄. 로빈후드: 소액투자자 확산이 모멘텀을 키우지만 밸류에이션 없이 추격매수하게 만들어 또 다른 버블을 만든다고 멍거가 비판. 투자 철학: 멍거는 모든 투자는 결국 가치투자이며 미래 현금흐름 할인이 없다면 투기라고 주장. 출연자 전망: 멍거는 단기 대폭락을 우려하지만 장기적으로 미국·중국·캐나다 등 국가와 기술 발전에는 긍정적이라는 해석.
다듬은 글
talking about charlie munger and this daily journal interview slash shareholder meeting man charlie had a lot to say in this video and we're going to get into some of the things that he said and like let's see how true they are let's see if we can actually listen to what charlie has saying and is he outdated is he doing the smart thing now is he predicting the future what do you guys think about whatever all the stuff that charlie said in this interview i just want to give you one clip let's see what he says about spax because i think that's very important now because we know spax is the rage everyone is getting into spacks we don't even care who who's leading the specs and who's what's gonna happen with this back we're just getting into spikes and we're just leading that charge so let's see what charlie munger has to say about spax shareholder question comes from simon jacobs he writes many observers see market behavior that reminds them of the dot-com bubble wild speculation endless facts and ipos soaring on their first day of trading do you agree that there is a close parallel to the late 90s and this is therefore quote this therefore guys remember the 90s is where the tech bubble was about to pop in 1999 so this is the question that he's asking is this gonna have this huge fall in prices and stocks and valuations quote must end badly yes i think it must end badly but i don't know when such a simple answer man shareholder bill roberts asked um about spax and he points out it seems like everyone including actually this is a good question and politicians are getting into the business of promoting their own spec why do you think all these facts and the promoter what what do you think of all of the specs and the promoters pushing them well i don't participate at all and i think the world would be better off without them i think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of of an irritating bubble it's just that the investment banking profession will sell shed as long as shed can be sold there you have it guys charlie munger himself says bax is just like um it's just a trend right now the banks everyone is marketing spax very heavily and guess who's winning in that aspect the it's the it's the bankers they're the ones really winning by selling specs it's all these billionaires promoting specs is the it's the it's like the industry that's promoting these facts that are the real winners in this you think the little guys are the winners uh with all these spacks that are getting ipo'd and they're just tripling instantly like i feel like we are not the winners in this charlie is saying that the bankers the ones that are doing all these ipos all these spot plays are just making so much money so they're gonna keep selling it and selling it and selling it and they think that they're assuming that we are the ones winning we're the ones making these quick plays these quick money but it's really not that it's really these bankers the industry that's really making this money in the market and they're having this like facade for us the retail investors that we're the ones making on the money where it's not really us it's the bankers and that's basically what charlie's saying right now is that if you can sell it you just sell it it doesn't matter what it is what's going on what it produces you just sell it and you sell it so charlie's saying that this crash is gonna happen we don't know when it can be tomorrow it can be in two years three years four years but when it crashes it's gonna crash big and then we gotta remember that the government can't really lower interest rates any lower to actually help with the crash because it's already at the lowest point so the only thing that government it can actually do is print out more money that's already already in the system already and buy more assets like how much is that gonna do when we already know the the fed's hand in the play so if the crash does happen it's gonna be huge um charlie also talks about bitcoin in this interview and basically saying that uh like does he worry about the bank like the question was basically about the banking system and if they have to worry about like bitcoin and digital wallets and he's basically saying that bitcoin can never be like the reserve currency because it's just too volatile he said it reminds him of gold like he's just like bitcoin can be is resembling gold and he says that he's never bought gold so he doesn't see why he buy bitcoin because it's just too volatile like the prices go up and down up and down so it can be worth this much this day and then uh the next day can be worth this much so you're buying less if um you're buying less if the price goes down so it's just too volatile for a price exchange and for a currency so he just sees that bitcoin is being nothing but guys it's just it's just old thinking like is charlie just thinking like because he's he's stuck in his ways right he doesn't see where bitcoin can be but does he so does he have like a point with bitcoin that's not really anything right and that's what we want to grasp because what if bitcoin is just becomes new like kind of like the like the place where you put your money because we know the government can't really access it can't really do anything to it but then on that you still gotta be worried because they're gonna might they're probably gonna implement laws on bitcoin if they see this thing keep going keep going and going going they have to the government has to make money on these things like they're not just going to let you make money and they're not going to be participating in making money with bitcoin so you guys got to realize that that eventually if bitcoin keeps soaring and keep for the next five ten years the government's gonna have his hand in bitcoin no matter what you think and then when it has a hand in bitcoin is that gonna reduce the attractiveness the attractiveness of bitcoin like the whole attractiveness of bitcoin is that like it's like a protection against the fed printing money but if the fed it can get their hands into the bitcoin i feel like that's gonna lose so much value of what bitcoin stands for and what it does because you can't you can't produce more bitcoin than it really has out there in the world and that's what makes it so attractive so it's going to be an interesting case if the government starts getting their hands in bitcoin and starts doing these weird things trying to extract money from bitcoin so that's a i think that was a very interesting point but charlie's old school so you know he has these old points about bitcoin and about all these specs and all these like all the access in the market and then he talks about robin hood basically faking they fake like they are just kind of like for the people again they fake like they're for the people but they're helping out the big guys the big guys are paying for the work order the workflow and they're underhanding the small guys and they're pretending like it's a it's a free payment service where you can just keep trading and trading and that's building this huge momentum that you're seeing in the market right now all these robinhood investors so it's like a double-edged sword we want robin hood investors to feel empowered to invest into the market but on the other hand he sees this as a they're not doing the valuation checks they're not just they're just trying to grip for that quick momentum they see the price going up they just get into it they don't they're not looking at valuation so that's creating another um bubble on top of the specs on top of the ipos on top of bitcoin so he sees this huge downfall of everything going on in the market charlie munger which i can kind of agree on then when it comes to the interest rates and the feds and their bonds like people are investing more into the market right because they see the interest rates so low and people don't want to get those treasury bonds and he said and this is a huge thing i feel like charlie said trap cash is trash right now because we know what the fed is creating so much inflation right now into the market so much inflation and we know that banks when you have all that money in the bank it's not doing anything the bank is making money on your money you gotta keep that in mind like the bank is actually lending up more money now because that's how they're generating their money right so right now if you just have your all your money in the bank and it's not doing anything it's just sitting there charlie said trap like cash is trash right now but on the other hand everything is inflated prices are inflated so one of the guys asked him about being patient in this kind of market but the thing is being patient it might hurt your gangs right because cash is trash and he thinks that maybe even these like the the tech evaluations is not it can be it might actually be like that's how evaluations are staying like tech is it's almost like a like a it's not like a new market but it's like they have those 20 growth 30 percent growth in their ps around 20 30 percent around 30 so that might be like the new thing that you have to like understand that you're not going to get these tech companies that cheap prices anymore these these companies are going to be at that high level now so you might have to pay up for these companies now which i think charlie kind of mentions and kind of like hints at that so be aware of that now guys we we think we can still get these 50 margin of safeties right we think we can get that on all these businesses but is that the truth right now can we really get that that 50 margin of safety when when these companies are going 20 30 i'm talking about the companies that you you see in the market that actually have they're actually generating cash flow and you can see that they're generating free cash flow like are we able to get those at a low pe like before these valuations might be at that level so we got to think about that we might have to adapt our thinking and that was kind of one of the questions because do we be patient or do we invest in our money with these high multiples for a lot of these companies so it's a question you got to think of right now because cash is trash and you're losing money every day you're holding that money because due to inflation in the whole grand scheme of everything going on with the fed printing crazy amount of money right now so yeah that was those were like the huge things and he just thinks big uh and another thing he's just and then just to end it he thinks all value investing all investing is value investing because the another question was again was is value investing dead but charlie thinks all investing is value investing we're trying to actually get the future cash flows and discount that back to today if you're not doing that you're not really investing you're just gambling um you're just kind of trying to predict like something that you can't predict with any type of accuracy with any type of fundamental predictions so he sees a lot of gambling in the market he doesn't like it he feels like this is good and very very badly so we're gonna see what happens man charlie i feel like in this interview charlie just like he sees like the he sees a huge downfall coming but he's i know deep down he's still positive about america positive about whatever all the countries canada china he's positive about all these countries developing in the future because he sees where tech is going where the market is going but he sees right now the whole sphere of investing is creating a huge bubble in the market so tell me what you guys think about this interview um it's a lot of good knowledge a lot of good things he talked about but what did you like about this video if you like this video like subscribe to my channel and i'll get back to you in the next video peace
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