저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 주가가 여전히 저평가라고 보며, 5년 기준 목표가를 7000달러(분할 전 기준), 자율주행 성공 시 2만2000달러(분할 전)까지 제시한다. 가격 흐름: 최근 수개월간 테슬라 주가가 분할 전 200달러에서 2400달러 이상으로 급등했으며, 이후 소폭 조정됐다. 과거 3월 저점은 350달러 수준이었다. 목표가 수정: ARK의 기존 베어케이스(5년 1500달러)는 테슬라 점유율이 17%에서 줄어든다는 가정이었으나, 실제로는 2023년 23%, 이후 26% 수준으로 오히려 증가했다. 따라서 베어케이스는 사실상 과거가 됐다고 주장한다. 시장점유율 근거: 미국 시장 약 79~80%, 중국에서도 점유율 상승을 언급했다(수치는 자막 인식 불명확). 라이드헤일링 전략: 테슬라가 자체 우버·리프트형 차량 호출 서비스를 올해 시작할 것으로 보며, 이는 기존 베어케이스에 포함되지 않은 상방 요인이다. 기존 오너를 활용한 인간 운전 서비스 후 로보택시로 확장하는 시나리오를 제시했다. 차량 경제성: 모델3의 총소유비용(TCO)이 토요타 캠리보다 약 30% 낮다고 주장하며, 잔존가치가 높다는 점을 근거로 들었다. 일부 모델S는 구매가의 90%에 재판매된다고 언급했다. 데이터 우위: 테슬라는 약 140~150억 마일 규모의 주행 데이터를 보유해 자율주행 경쟁에서 앞선다고 평가했다. 구글 웨이모·크루즈·바이두는 근접하지 못한다고 봤다. 자율주행 전망: 일론 머스크가 프로토타입으로 출퇴근에 거의 개입 없이 주행한다고 언급하며 자율주행 완성 가능성에 긍정적이다. 실현 시 2만2000달러(분할 전) 목표가가 가능하다고 본다. 보험 사업: 테슬라 보험은 현재 이익 비중은 작지만 수천만 대 규모가 되면 큰 수익원이 될 것이며, 주행 데이터 기반 자체 보험(셀프 인슈어런스)이 가능하다고 주장했다. NHTSA 보고서를 인용해 오토파일럿 사용 시 사고 위험이 40% 낮다고 언급했다. 에너지: 태양광·배터리 비용 하락으로 석유 시장 점유율을 잠식할 잠재력이 크다고 봤으며, 이는 테슬라를 단순 자동차 기업으로 보는 숏셀러 논리에 대한 반박이라고 주장했다. 투자 기준: ARK의 포트폴리오 최소 목표수익률은 5년간 연 15%복리이며, 테슬라는 현재가(약 1900달러)에서도 이를 크게 상회한다고 봤다. 리스크: 자율주행 경쟁에서 테슬라가 모빌아이와 결별한 이후 독자 접근 방식에 대한 우려가 제기됐으나, 우드는 이를 큰 문제로 보지 않았다. 단기 가격 방향은 50% 등락 가능성을 열어두었다.
다듬은 글
tesla stock without a doubt has been on a huge tear over the past few months we've seen tesla stock go from two hundred dollars per share to over two thousand four hundred dollars per share before adjusting for the recent split while this has been a massive run kathy wood the ceo and cio of arc invest still believes that stock is undervalued in this video i'm going to go over kathy's bull case on tesla stock and why she still believes that the stock is undervalued if you're new to the channel please consider subscribing for more content like this and let's get right into it it's important to understand that kathy is looking from a five-year perspective tesla stock could go up fifty percent or down fifty percent over the next few months but all of that isn't important to kathy's point of view my point is is that kathy is looking at the long term and not the short term imagine where tesla will be in five years do you see tesla's growth slowing down substantially or do you see solar and eevees growing exponentially the second question is what kathy sees in tesla and obviously you're a big fan of tesla why do you continue to like this idea uh we still think it's way underestimated even with the massive move it has had it hit 350 dollars at the bottom in march um and is now 1900 roughly there yeah it went over 1900 and fell back a little bit today yes uh and uh even with this um our bear case for this stock has been 1500.
now that's a five-year price target that assumed that tesla would lose market share we first made this analysis in 2018 2018 tesla had a 17 percent share of the global ev market including china last year i think i've got this number right they had 23 percent share the point that kathy makes here is extremely important kathy priced in a market share decline for tesla in order to reach a bear case of 1 500 per share pre-split however since then we've seen tesla continue to take market share from the rest of the ev companies kathy is indirectly pointing out that her bear price target is outdated we assumed for our bare case that tesla would lose market share from that 17 percent and go down to in our base case 11 percent and in our bear case six percent instead what has happened it went up to 23 last year and now i think we're up to this is rough uh as of mid-year uh uh about 26 so it's still increasing has 78 9 to 80 share in the united states and even in china where i think there are 150 electric vehicle manufacturers crazy crazy um tesla has 21 had in june 21 of that market think about that 150 and tesla is 21 now it's incredible yeah it is incredible for years we've heard that the eevee competition is right around the corner and we're still hearing it today nonetheless behind the scenes tesla's market share is still continuing to increase and that bolsters kathy's price target substantially so uh that's that's the first thing so it's not losing share it's gaining share and in that bear case we have nothing for autonomous at all and nothing for ride hailing ride hailing we do think they're going to start a ride-hailing service this year they're going to compete against uber and lyft we believe if they do that and again we think they will uh we think that the bear case is history given that cathy is a prominent tesla bull i'm sure she has some information some clues as to how tesla will initiate its ride-hailing service as we all know elon musk has been looking to start a robo-taxi ride-hailing service for years however tesla's fsd certainly isn't ready yet and even if it was it would take years for it to pass government regulations what kathy is talking about here is if tesla would launch its own uber and lyft type ride-hailing service where current tesla owners were taxi people to their destinations this makes sense from a logical perspective if tesla were to suddenly roll out a robo-taxi network people would likely be skeptical of tesla's ability to create a ride-sharing service on the contrary if tesla were to start with its human-driven network first and then scale up to a robo-taxi network then people who are already using the human driven network would be more willing to trial a robo taxi along with this tesla will also be able to utilize what is known as a tesla effect when someone goes inside a tesla for the first time a transition begins to occur in the first few minutes people may find a tesla interesting give them a few more minutes and sooner or later those people will be interested in buying one with the release of a tesla ride-hailing service the number of times a tesla effect would occur would increase by a significant amount in addition tesla would be able to obtain some passive income without putting in extra work this will be important for turning profits despite massive r d expenditures now kathy has likely spoken to a prominent tesla executive who ran her through their plans and the ride-hailing service was likely part of that while this sounds great in theory the initial cost for tesla is far too expensive for the majority of the population in the following clip kathy explains how tesla could actually do a business model similar to a rental car company for the ride-hailing service i could be totally wrong about this but it sounds like kathy has spoken to a tesla executive about this plan now with the legislation or in california and obviously uber's been affected with it having to have full-time employees would a tesla be affected by that would their ride hail network be affected by that or just these are tesla drivers and and they're just taking advantage of their tesla car and connecting with other drivers and driving to from one location the other well even uh well tesla could actually hire these people make them full-time employees because uh the the total cost of ownership for a a model 3 today is about 30 less than a toyota camry mostly because of the residual value in fact i've seen uh some model s's uh selling for ninety percent of what people bought uh them for and we think the model threes will be even better if those become the ride hailing network cars so what's going to happen tesla will say to a person join us and and for five thousand dollars down or seven thousand dollars buy a well we'll let you buy a model three you can work the rest of the price off and oh by the way it's going to be cheaper for you than a toyota camry you might be surprised that a tesla would cost less to own than a toyota camry and that's where kathy is referring the gene monster's calculations jean munster is a famous fund manager of loop ventures who found out that teslas are cheaper to own than camrys because of their low maintenance costs and the fact that teslas retain a large portion of their value over time last but not least a tesla ride-hailing service would bring data for research on full self driving so they will do that and then what does that do if they if they drive uh for fifty percent or sixty percent of the day compared to the five percent of the day that i drive and less than that now that we're that i'm not driving to the train station yeah um they're going to be delivering uh real miles data real miles traveled to tesla to feed its autonomous network so we think they have somewhere between 14 and 15 billion miles worth of data the just like what i mentioned with uh genomics-based data in vitae same is true in the autonomous taxi network the winner is going to be that company with the most data and the highest quality data and the best ai deep learning neural network expertise uh and they're doing some very interesting things with um video labeling uh in the ai uh area which we think has them miles i mean there's just no one's even close no one google's not closed cruise automation's not close no one's close and even in china baidu was supposed to be the autonomous taxi platform yeah you know it's interesting all of this is a bonus to the fact that kathy still thinks tesla stock is still undervalued as of today her base case for tesla stock in five years is seven thousand dollars and all of that is without ride hailing also keep in mind that these aren't just random numbers being thrown around kathy is calculating these price targets based on actual sales number predictions um we're not worried at all and in fact our base case which is in the 7000 range this is again a five-year target our base case will also go up if they do launch this ride-hailing network because we have not included that and in our base case we have simply assumed that they keep their share from last year not lose it uh uh so i i believe i'm right we may have we may be assuming that it does go back to 17 i'll have to check on that but but nonetheless so we're at 1900 now 7 000 before ride hailing it will go up with ride hailing our minimum hurdle rate of return for any stock in our portfolio is 15 at a compound annual rate over the next five years that means a doubling over five years so at 7 000 plus versus 1900 now we're still well above that it's still one of the most uh we believe it will drive more performance than most stocks in our portfolio even today you just heard that right kathy still sees the opportunity in tesla as far better than any other stocks in the market of course we likely won't see tesla stock go up 500 like it did in the past year but even a 200 return over the next few years is very enticing now there's still more factors that could potentially drive tesla stock up even more over the next five years and the largest of them all is full self driving this leads to kathy's golden goose target of 22 thousand dollars on tesla stock before the split if accounting for the split this would mean four thousand four hundred dollars per share now one of the criticisms of the tesla and the self-driving cars uh or that that initiative is they've kind of got taken a different route they maybe try to be a little bit cheaper on on some of things or doesn't analyze as well because i i guess what a few years ago with mobileye they kind of had a falling out with them and so they were going to do it themselves so do you see any concerns uh with that or or you still think that you know these guys are definitely going to be the the first ones are most likely going to be the first ones to really get to that stage five i guess with self-driving yes i i i do believe actually uh elon is saying that he's been um driving to and from work pretty much without uh in the prototype of their full self-driving car pretty much without uh having to intervene um so i i think they're what i love about elon musk is he's he he's the guinea pig he's willing right right um and and and i believe him when when he says that so they are they probably because of the billions of miles of data they have seen more corner cases than i think most auto manufacturers and technology companies will see in the next five years so it's gonna be very tough for anyone to catch up to them we've talked about many factors in the future of tesla but i believe the most overlooked factor is tesla insurance as of today analysts expect that tesla will begin selling millions of vehicles in the future especially with the release of a compact car however what they almost always overlook is that tesla can insure a large portion of these vehicles today tesla insurance makes up a small portion of tesla's profits nevertheless when tesla begins to have tens of millions of vehicles on the road being able to ensure all these cars is going to be a huge profit machine after all tesla has far more data than any other insurance company in the world the company will know how aggressive someone drives how often someone changes lanes and practically everything you can think of in the insurance world data is king and analysts are not pricing this in so now i i find it interesting maybe six months ago or a year ago when they announced that they're going to get more into the insurance business too how do you think that's going to affect their their model yeah i think this will help them in on the ride-hailing uh side of things i remember uh talking to uber drivers and the insurance costs were killing them i i mean i really felt terrible for them they were getting that you know that the hikes they were seeing were enormous um so tesla knows more about how its cars are going to perform with autopilot uh than any insurance company will so tesla will self-insure we're we're pretty sure of that and so the insurance costs are going to come down uh dramatically you know when the when nitza did the uh analysis on the first fatal crash um the model s fatal in florida um when it took them six months to do that study but after they finished and remember this was about three years ago yeah even nitsa stated in its report i may not have this exactly right the wording but they said that anyone driving a tesla car with autopilot was going to uh experience 40 was going to be 40 percent safer now was it 40 fewer accidents or fatal accidents i don't remember but 40 percent safer any insurance company knowing that would price accordingly they're not willing to do that right now the insurance companies are a little bit behind the times they don't understand this autonomous concept tesla does so it can self-insure kathy didn't have time to talk about solar and energy in this interview which also makes up a large portion of our bold thesis we all know that the oil market is huge as we've seen trillions of dollars be made in the oil business as solar and battery costs inevitably decline with more research tesla will be able to continue to steal more and more market share from traditional oil companies the potential here is enormous and is another giant dent in the short seller arguments that value tesla as a car company let me know what you think about kathy's bull thesis on tesla stock in the comment section below if you enjoyed this video please hit the like button and subscribe and i'll see you in the next one
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