저자: Daniel · 외국인
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결론: 버크셔 해서웨이는 핵심 영업이익과 주식 포트폴리오를 감안하면 현 주가가 할인된 편이며, 장기적으로 S&P500 대비 나은 수익을 기대할 수 있다는 주장이다. 2022년 실적: 지수는 약 18% 하락했으나 버크셔는 약 4% 상승. 1965년 이후 수익률은 약 380만%로 제시됨. 핵심 영업이익은 270억 달러에서 310억 달러로 증가했지만 투자 포트폴리오 평가손실이 500억 달러 이상 발생해 주주지분 가치는 약 230억 달러 감소. 변동성 구조: 3,000~4,000억 달러 규모 주식 포트폴리오와 보험 영업 때문에 시장 하락 시 실적 변동성이 커짐. 월가는 핵심 영업이익 성장을 근거로 이를 용인했다고 분석. 보유 기관: 노트르담대 등 다수 기관이 보유, 일부 소형 운용사는 포트폴리오의 20~30%를 편입. 현금 대비 안정적 대안으로 인식되며 커리어 리스크 측면에서 보유한다는 해석. 사업 구조: 보험(GEICO, 재보험)이 핵심 수익원이며 장기적으로 언더라이팅 이익과 플로트 투자수익이 발생. 2022년 GEICO 자동차보험은 약 20억 달러 손실. 플로트 투자수익은 금리 상승으로 증가 추세. 철도(BNSF), 에너지, 제조(Clayton Homes 등), 서비스·소매 등 다수 사업 보유. 세전이익은 약 300~400억 달러 규모. 밸류에이션 프레임: 정상화 세후이익 약 450~500억 달러로 추정. 시가총액 약 7,000억 달러 대비 P/E 약 15배 수준으로 S&P500(약 20배)보다 할인. 영업 성장률은 과거 10년 기준 연 4~6%로 가정, 5년 후 이익 약 550~600억 달러, 적정 멀티플 14~18배 적용. 현금흐름: 연 잉여현금흐름 200~300억 달러, 자사주 매입 여력은 시가 대비 연 3~4% 수익률 효과. 성장과 자사주 매입을 합산하면 연 high single digit 수익 가능, 멀티플 확장 시 더 높아질 수 있다는 주장. 리스크: 자율주행이 GEICO 보험 수요를 줄일 가능성, 전기트럭이 철도 산업을 교란할 가능성 등 장기 구조적 위험 언급. 채널 측은 이를 감안해 보수적 성장률(4~6%) 적용. 결론적 견해: 낮은 시나리오 연 10%, 높은 시나리오 약 30% 수익 가능성 제시. 본인은 현금 대체재보다 고확신 종목에 집중 투자하는 방식을 선호한다고 밝힘. 명시적 매수·매도 추천은 없으며 법적 고지 포함.
다듬은 글
Hi, this n this video, I wanted to break down how do you value Berkshire Hathaway stock and why do you so many investors believe it still has such a promising future? If you enjoy educational investment videos, please make a point of hitting that subscribe button. So, since Warren Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway, the stock has performed nearly 3.8 million percent return.
2022 was another year of outperformance. S&P declined around 18%. Berkshire Hathaway delivered positive 4% in performance. A lot of hedge funds wish they could have delivered, you know, 3.8 million percent since 1965. Why did they generate this outperformance in 2022? Well, their results were actually decidedly mixed.
While their core earnings were up nicely from 27 billion to 31 billion, their investment portfolio declined over 50 billion dollars. So, this is going to be a lot of volatility, partly because Berkshire Hathaway has such a large stock portfolio that goes with their sizable insurance operations. So, if you have a 300-400 billion dollar stock portfolio and the broader market declines, yeah, that's going to hurt their results when they report their earnings because that volatility now gets lumped in with their results.
And so, that's the reason why their equity value or the core value of Berkshire declined by 23 billion dollars last year. However, Wall Street sort of gave them a pass because their core operating earnings continue to expand. So, Wall Street's saying, "Hey, there's going to be volatility in your investment portfolio, but as long as your core operations are doing well, that's what gets us interested." And that's the reason why I'd argue the stock performed better than the S&P 500.
So, then you look at, you know, who owns Berkshire Hathaway and it's an amazing list because, you know, the reality is it's dozens upon dozens, hundreds of funds continue to buy into and own Berkshire Hathaway. Some of them own it for the long haul, but some of them, you know, have I are recent buyers and you can look at, you know, it's it's buyers and sellers of all size that are into this.
You have University of Notre Dame that has over a hundred million dollar investment. And then you have a bunch of smaller shops that own, you know, 20% plus of their investment portfolio. So, this raises the question, well, why do they even own it? If you're a small hedge fund or, you know, asset, you know, asset manager, why do you put 30% into Berkshire Hathaway?
And I think what it comes down to is they believe that you're looking at a business that can still, let's say, perform in line or better than the S&P 500 over time, uh and it doesn't have a lot of the risk that you have with a lot of other investments out there. You're having sort of a sanctuary, a business with 100 billion plus in cash, lots of free cash flow, one of the best capital allocators out there, Warren Buffett.
You know, he is getting old, but he's hiring, you know, top talent to continue managing the portfolio in the years ahead. So, even if, and this is a super important point for viewers to consider because a lot of folks are looking for, myself included, looking for that next 10-bagger, that type of stock can go up, you know, 1,000% or even more over time.
A lot of investors say, "Hey, I'm I'm comfortable getting an S&P maybe plus a little bit return over time, and I'd and I'd like to just do that in a stable way, and maybe this is better than holding cash." And that's what some investors do. I personally would rather have the cash, and then when I see something that's really high conviction that I think can compound at 10 to 20%, you know, over time plus, that's when I go, "Okay, that's when I want to make an outsized allocation." But for a lot of these other investors, I think this is an example of career risk.
They don't want to get fired, and they they think that over time they're still going to get be getting with Berkshire Hathaway a high single-digit maybe a low teens return. That's how they're thinking about it and why it's still a large percentage of the portfolio for literally hundreds of different investment managers out there.
So, how do you think about valuing Berkshire stock? I do have a valuation course to think about valuing stocks in general. It's what I would have wanted to know when I first started on Wall Street. So, I'm giving the basics also course on uh how to read financial statements. I also have Unraveled Investing, which, you know, shares the things I'm buying and selling for the subscribers.
But, thinking about how to value Berkshire Hathaway, the reality is it's a business that owns so many different various different segments. I mean, you have dozens of different business lines across really the world in terms of what they sell, heavily levered to the US economy. I personally look at this, and this is how I've sort of simplified the data, and this is what what they largely provide.
But, you have insurance operations, which are significantly profitable. So, they're providing insurance to businesses, individuals around the world, whether or not it's car insurance or property and casualty insurance, or reinsurance. What they're doing is saying, "Hey, if you have some sort of risk, we can help you protect against it." And generally, the insurance policies that they write are profitable for them in aggregate.
They will have money losers. Last year was a sizable loss for their GEICO auto insurance, nearly a $2 billion loss. But, in aggregate over multi-year perspective, their underwriting, the insurance policies they write, are profitable for them. Plus, the money that they get while they hold the premiums, that that's called the float.
That is increasing in value partly because interest rates are moving up. So, you saw the float investment income jump up significantly. I I suspect it'll be even higher this next year with interest rates where they are. And then, you have this cross-section of businesses around the United States, around the world.
You have energy, you have railways, you have manufacturing. Manufacturing saw a sizable uptick partly because of their Clayton Homes prefab home division that saw this huge surge. Maybe people are finding it easier more affordable to buy, you know, prefabricated homes versus, you know, buying, you know, on the the used or or new market.
The So, you're and services and retailing, which once again includes dozens of different businesses. So, when you add this all together, you're sort of looking at a business that is generating around 30 40 billion dollars in pre-tax profits. And this is, once again, spread across dozens of dozens of business lines.
You can see the largest players like the Geicos in their insurance lines and their investment income and their manufacturing, but it's really spread across a lot of different things. You know, some of the largest is Geico, their reinsurance, you know, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, one of the largest railroads in the US, their their energy division, which is much smaller than their the railway, but you can see like wow, this is just dozens of businesses around 30-40 billion in pre-tax profits.
So, then the next component, so you're going to when you're thinking about the valuation of Berkshire, you're going to say, "Okay, so there's all these earnings components and then well, with your insurance investments, not only do you have this float from these premiums that you collect, but you can invest and you're required to keep a lot of it safe things like Treasuries and bonds, but when you have a lot of excess float that builds up over time, you can reinvest it how you see fit in riskier assets like stocks and they have just a tremendous stock portfolio that's, you know, around give or take depending on the year, let's say 330 to let's say 375 billion dollars.
So, just a huge portfolio. So, when you're thinking about valuing Berkshire, you want to take their core earnings, which is around 30-40 billion dollars and then add what you think they could do with their investment portfolio over time. Now, you might say, "Well, wait a second, that investment portfolio doesn't actually belong to them.
There's this, you know, offsetting liability from the all these insurance claims, but as long as they continue to write profitable insurance or at least break even, then they actually benefit from that stock portfolio that they own that's, you know, generated from the float from their insurance operations.
So, the way to think about it is you have this earnings power plus the long-term compounding potential from a 300 billion dollar plus stock portfolio. That's at least how I sort of break down what's the earnings power, the normalized earnings power for Berkshire Hathaway. So, what happens when you put these pieces together?
First and full disclosure, this is not financial advice and if you're interested in following my personal journey, I call it out at unrivalinvesting.com, you know, for compelling ideas. So, thinking about Berkshire Hathaway from here, this is a hypothetical valuation framework. Stock price go way higher, way lower, but this is, you know, let's let's ground it in some realistic, what I believe are realistic assumptions for what can happen to Berkshire Hathaway stock from here.
So, the first is what's sort of that normalized earnings? Normalized earnings after tax maybe around 45 to 50 billion dollars. You know, that assumes you're getting maybe a high single digit after-tax return on a 300 billion dollar plus portfolio, plus that 30 billion dollar plus in earnings uh from from all these different the dozens and dozens of different operations.
So, when you are 30 to 40 billion from that, you know, pre-tax from those, you know, dozens and dozens of operations. So, you look at that on an after-tax basis, I think the normalized earnings for Berkshire is probably around 45 to 50 billion dollars of what it could be right now. And keep in mind, this is for a business that's currently around, you know, nearly 700 billion dollar valuation.
So, by no means would you say this is, you know, really expensive. This is below market multiple. And this is part of the reason why I think a lot of investors also own is not only do you have the stability and the sort of the pride of owning something, owning along with Warren Buffett, but you're also can say to yourself with a reasonable framework, sort of say, "Hey, S&P 500 trades at around 20 times.
This is closer to 15 times on normalized earnings basis." So, this seems much more, you know, a much greater discount than what you can get with the broader market. And then the question is, "Okay, so what do their operations grow at in the years ahead?" If you look back at how they've done, let's say the past decade, their growth rate, their core growth rate with the businesses that they own, it's you know, mid to low single digits, you know, around 4, 5, 6%.
So, not crazy compelling, but that does get factored into how to think about this valuation. So, if you currently have 45 to 50 billion, you know, what's that growth rate in the years ahead, including what how does their portfolio compound? So, I'm assuming somewhere between 4% and 6%. You might say Daniel, you're being conservative here, but there are real, you know, sort of existential risks over time.
You know, if self-driving becomes a huge part, maybe that means, you know, fewer GEICO insurance business in the future. And maybe that business declines or Burlington Northern, if you have electric trucks, could that disrupt, you know, the rail industry over time. So, there are some risks over time that could make it, you know, grow slower.
I look at Berkshire's portfolio and I think they've hand-picked some of the best businesses they can own with pricing power. I look at it as GDP maybe times two type business. So, if GDP's growing at maybe 2%, you know, maybe this they they're growing closer to 4%, maybe 5% over time for their core organic business looking at their, you know, their various different business lines.
And so, thinking about, okay, so 45 to 50 billion in normalized earnings growing somewhere between 4% and 6% over time over the next 5 years to, you know, maybe 55 billion to 60, you know, 7 billion in earnings power. You know, in which case you're really trading at, you know, 5 years out, maybe you're trading at really low teens earnings multiple.
So, then assuming maybe 5 years out, you know, Wall Street gives it a multiple somewhere between 14 and 18 times. Part of it's, you know, in the range of where currently trades, sometimes it's at a premium. You know, we'll we'll see where it goes from here. Plus, you know, the fact is they still do generate meaningful amounts of free cash flow even if they're not finding compelling acquisitions or they're not buying stock.
I think fourth quarter, they were actually, you know, Warren a big buyer. I think they might have even been a net seller of stocks. You know, you look at this business generating 20 30 billion in free cash flow. So, not even factoring in their stock portfolio appreciating, but you know, the the fact that they have this 20 30 billion in free cash flow that Buffett and his lieutenants, you know, will be able to allocate.
That's cash that can go back to you as a shareholder. They're not currently doing a dividend, but that does mean buybacks and you have seen that the last few years. Based on the current stock price, you know, 30 40 billion dollars that can get returned. That's equivalent of a 3 to 4% yield in terms of buybacks each year.
So, between this growth of let's say 4 to 6% plus the ability to do buybacks of around 3 to 4% maybe 5% you know, you're automatically talking about high single digit potential returns. If you do a little bit of valuation expansion, now you're talking about potentially even higher. So, I think a lot of investors and this is part of the reason why hundreds of different investors out there own Berkshire stock is because they look at something where they say, "Hey, I can conservatively pencil out something that's in line with let's say the S&P 500 over a multi-decade perspective and maybe it does more than double what the S&P 500 does over a multi-year perspective cuz historically S&P you know, does around 6 7% so maybe it does it's in line with S&P 500 maybe it's you know, double it.
And this is I think part of the reason why a lot of investment managers say, "Hey, I can own this instead of cash still collect my management fees and I can potentially do better than a lot of you know, a lot I can do better than the index potentially with Berkshire Hathaway stock." So, I think that's the appeal.
I personally look at it and say I I instead of thinking of a business as a cash substitute, I'd rather just wait for things that I I can comfortably say, "Okay, in my low case scenario, I'm getting like a 10% and maybe my high case I'm getting closer to 30%." But look, every investor has their own different preferences.
I can I can understand why some of the super duper wealthy and I've talked to some super high net worth individuals, you know, that own Berkshire Hathaway stock. The reason why they do it is just sort of the comfort and satisfaction and how they sleep at night. "Okay, I'm comfortable compounding even if it's not a super high growth compounder from here even though it's you know, gone up like 3 million you know, percent since Warren Buffett took over, you know, it's still in a position where I still think it'll compound at reasonable growth rates in the years ahead." If this video talking about how to value Berkshire Hathaway .
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