저자: Veron Movies · 외국인
다듬은 글
it would be terrific to know that the dow jones average a year for now would be x then we're gonna have a full scale recession our interest rate's gonna be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so if i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that now i have to be i'd be fair i'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or m1 and m2 3b and all these all these m's because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further gonna go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 and a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 to 100.
it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18. and this kind of no debt i mean this company was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries have gone from 26 hours a year to 16. i said how much more can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14.
i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16. how much you're looking to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can i go it's gone from 26 to 10. well i went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i unfortunate time rapidly i would probably be still caddying or being there working at the stop and shot but it happened fast this was compressed that uh and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kaiser aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser's cement you know kaiser broadcast and the own kaiser sand gravel guys are engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people approach that it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747.
i said there's something wrong with this company signing for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and councilmen they passed out shares and caused aluminum they passed out the public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got to 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when went eight what would you do one went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists haven't worked so far i've never seen them running in this the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this for the uh with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either uh people think uh rca just about get back to its 1929 high when general electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those beauties uh floppy disks western union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back uh here's another one here all the time it's three dollars how much can i lose i've had people call me up saying i'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much do i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in stock at fifty or your neighbor put twenty thousand full at fifty into the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars in a three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason to research a stock the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they're not sure of home depot they're not sure the great companies johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to zero and if they're selling short seven they're selling short of six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing these people saying it's three how much lower can it go yeah i i love volatility i think i remember when in 1972 the market went from down dramatically and taco bell went from 14 to one had no debt they never had a restaurant close and uh i started buying at seven but i kept on to it and it went to one and uh was the largest position of magellan in 1978 when he was bought off by 42 by pensacola i think would have gone to 400 if they didn't buy it out i think volatility is terrific i think it is very i think these calls are very important i don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public i think that's not a very good thing but i think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the market's going to go up and down well the human nature hasn't changed a lot 25 000 years and some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down and the market will go up so volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs i think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand they own they can own mutual funds try and figure out mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basic corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so i think the next market's about 3800 today 3700 i'm pretty convinced the next 3 800 points will be up we won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points don't know which way to go so the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years and i'll double again in eight nine years after that because profits will go up eight percent a year and and stocks will fall that's all there is to it your investing philosophy is often summed up as by what you know and there's some truth to that and it's also often way oversimplified can you explain what you did mean by that and what you didn't mean well i think it bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest this word play the market that's a dangerous term but if you do some work do some research know what you own look at the research look at the balance sheet you if you get added may get fairly close to 16 you find out this company has lots of debt no cash they're in trouble should known so a little bit recent people carefully buy refrigerator generally take a vacation and they they'll put five ten thousand dollars some stock to hear on the bus or the party that's dangerous so when you say buy what you know you also thought that the regular investor might be able to get an inside advantage by sticking to an industry he's familiar with or seeing something that she realizes is a great product imagine if you were in a mall the last 50 years you were seeing gap when it was hot you were saying limit was hot when someone was not had you seen when they were starting people weren't excited about gaap anymore or then you do some research say well gee there's a lot of limited stores but they're only at 20.
you know they go to 400. so you you see a company i did really well duncan known as a local company i did well with stop and shop but people could see that there's a really people showing up or gets to the sunglasses no one's there anymore so i mean that's research that's fundamentals so you know you don't leave them all though and by that day you have to do some more work that's the important point so today uh there's so much information everywhere information overload does that make it harder for active investors the indexers say everyone's got access to the same information at the same time you can't beat the market well the way you beat the index is you you avoid the stocks to go down you board the steel companies and the oil companies and sears and penny and where the companies are deteriorating i mean companies are dynamic behind every stock there's a company these are not lottery tickets so we you're trying to find the companies within the sap department that are doing better they're going from crappy to semi-crabby to good that might take a couple years or they're going to grow for a long time you're trying to avoid the companies that are going south that's how you beat them or you find some companies outside the svr 100 that are that are great companies carmax was not in the s 500 they weren't 200-fold so a lot of times they enter and a lot of their great performances before they go in now a lot of people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company that's going up they then they take their profits and then you made the case in a book that you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and you even got a call from warren buffett as a result in 1989 i'm at home in the phone rings and that was one of my friends but one of my daughters your six-year-old and he picked up said she just there's a mr buffett online i said this could be a joke i pick it up and this this one buffer from nebraska you know i read your book but my airports doing two weeks i use a line he said that all about seven seconds and i said that's great i'd love to do it what's the line he said i love this it's been waiting to do this when you sell your grade companies and add to the losers it's like water in the weeds and cutting the flowers he said i want to put it in he said if you ever come to nebraska don't call me you nailed me mud all over nebraska so did he call him oh yeah several times we play bridges together we've had several meetings great guy the single single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own i'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they only actually if you really press them down they'd say the reason i own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain i'm serious you can't explain to a 10 year old and two minutes or less why you own a stock you should own it and that's true i think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning it's a relatively simple company they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a one megabit sram cmos bipolar risk floating point data io array processor an optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal oxide semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16 bit dual memory it has a unix operating system four whetstone megaflop poly silicon emitter a high bandwidth that's very important six gigahertz double metallization communication protocol and asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture four wave interleaved memory a token ring interchange backplane and it does in 15 nanoseconds of capability now if you want a piece of crap like that you will never make money never some people come along with more wet stones or less wet stones or a bigger megaflop or a smaller megaflop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happening and people buy this chunk all the time i made money in dunkin donuts i can understand it i uh when there's recessions i didn't have to worry about what was happening i could go there and people were still there i didn't have to worry about low price korean imports i mean i just didn't know you know i can understand it and you laugh i made 10 or 15 times my money in dunkin donuts those are the kind of stocks i can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful the money the public when they buy a refrigerator they gotta consume reports they buy microrevolving they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to wyoming they get a mobile travel guide or california when they go to europe they get the michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on a bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions of program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they put a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's where we're being driven to and it's self-fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way there is that's the way they're acting i'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30-fold bethlehem steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock if a company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates and this is it if any of your credit interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire considering there's not that many billionaires on the planet it's very you know i took i had logic so i had a syllogism in the study of these when i was at boston college there can't be that many people can pick interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one could predict the economy a lot of people this room were around in 1981 and 82 when we had a 20 prime rate with double-digit inflation double digit unemployment i don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it i didn't read i said all this i remember every time we had the worst recession since the depression so what i'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the dow jones average year for now would be x that we're going to have a full scale recession or interest rate's gonna be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that now i have to be i'd be fair i'm talking about economics on the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or m1 and m2 3b and all these all these m's the uh i'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when i own auto stocks i don't know what's happening use car prices when you use car prices going up it's a very good indicator when i own hotel stocks i want to go to hotel occupancies oh i know chemical stocks are going to have the price of ethylene these are facts if aluminum inventories go down five straight months that's relevant i can deal with that home affordability i want to know about my own uh fannie mae or i own a housing stock these are facts you could they're economic facts and it's economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and uh interest rates alan greenspan very honest guy he would tell you that he can't predict interest rates he can tell you what short rates are going to do in the next six months try and stick them on what the long term rate will be three years from now they'll say i don't have any idea so how are you the investor supposed to interest rates if they had the federal reserve can't do it and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history as the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years of century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls 10 we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a sock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific six to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're gonna happen you'll be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own when you were actively managing money you presumably are under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well i think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny in the stock all you can lose 100 i've done that your great mistakes are selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and quadruple speech you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold like on the 10 baggers so that my mistakes are saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold if i sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a growth company you have to say walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought this stock and made 500 times your money because they still were only in 15 united states and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23.
so the next four decades and around the country so you have to say yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story a 20-30 i'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue yes we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in america have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you would have made a lot of money johnson johnson you want to make a lot of money gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would lose money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world don't bat a thousand i sometimes get angry male particularly during bear markets saying so and so recommended such-and-such and it went down well uh how often did you come up with a clicker well this this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose twenty or thirty percent so when you buy a cycle i say yourself how much can i lose and how much can i make and you ought to be able to make a lot you see stocks are risky i mean look look how much lost in the t t like how much less than xerox these were quality companies you know you can lose a lot in stock so let's say yourself how much can i make because i want to buy a stock if i'm right i'm going to make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day i think the market's going to go up i keep calling a lot my company so i keep you
Comments 0