저자: Kevin · 외국인
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유럽 봉쇄·성장 둔화로 리커버리 종목이 흔들리지만, 미국은 2021년 성장 전망이 상향되어 인플레이션 우려가 제기됨. 그러나 Fed 설문(Survey of Professional Forecasters)상 1년 후 기대인플레이션은 중간값 약 2.2~2.3%, 6~10년 후는 약 2.2~2.3%로 하이퍼인플레이션은 아니며, 시장 대폭락 근거는 없다는 취지. 영상 후반 상당 부분이 광고(강의, 증권사 프로모션)임.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here so recovery stocks are selling off because people are well now frantic about a recovery not happening in specifically the eurozone which is a pretty darn big travel destination and here is of course our financial times paper which says on the front page virus surge and new lockdowns cast shadow on europe's economy but what does this have to do with the united states well a lot if we have hyper growth in europe we could potentially see more of that growth push towards the united states and potentially risk higher inflation right and inflation is the big buzzword that everybody's freaking out about these days because we believe that if we see higher inflation we'll see interest rates go up tech will get pummeled bond yields go up and the market just collapses like the stock market collapses under the weight of higher interest rates and then if interest rates go up too high then people with a lot of margin debt or short-term debt end up getting screwed we get bankruptcies we get market crashes as a disaster right well right now we might not have to worry about inflation at least in europe because while shutdowns not only is uh or are italy and germany going into new uh restrictive modes but paris is a locking town and europe in general the entire eurozone is now getting downgraded in terms of how much growth there might be in the eurozone in 2021 now this is in contrast to the united states where growth is actually projected to be faster in 2021 than we thought it might be last year when we were looking forward to 21.00 so we've got good news in the united states bad news in well the eurozone but what do we know or wouldn't i just find out better yet about inflation forecasts and why do inflation forecasts matter well first it's helpful to know why inflation forecasts matter first if you think that this headphone which let's say you need to buy or this head whatever uh this is this beats headset here uh i guess it's not really a headset because there's no microphone although maybe there is a built-in microphone this beats headset here if you needed this at some point between now and let's say christmas and you thought uh oh there's going to be a lot of inflation we think that this is going to go from say 199 or whatever the price is to 250 next year and it's going to scale up over time we may as well buy this as soon as possible because we would be getting a better deal like the price is going up over time it's kind of like how the price of the meat kevin courses go up over time and this is true they've gone up a lot over time but that's because i keep adding value and more content to them you get lifetime access to the lectures and i keep i keep expanding what's in them anyway that coupon code down below does expire on friday so you can still lock in that pricing for a few days here that extension we're officially ending it and the pricing will change on friday evening but anyway when we expect inflation we are more likely to spend money on things sooner i'm more likely to buy a macbook if i think it's going to be 10 more expensive next year i'm more likely to buy it now so i don't have to buy it next year that's at least the argument and this is something the federal reserve says the federal reserve believes people's inflation expectations lead to inflation or not now this is very different from oh my gosh look at grocery prices look at commodity prices look at the cost of sheet metal lumber copper brass sulfur bullets like all these things are skyrocketing around us and it feels like oh my gosh there's so much inflation it feels like everything is getting more expensive but the question we have to ask ourselves is do we think do you like you gotta ask yourself this i i know i got people from all walks watching these videos and i think it's wonderful but i just want you to personally ask yourself do i think over the next five years we're gonna see hyperinflation and don't just think am i going to see hyperinflation i want you to legitimately ask yourself are these headphones going to be more expensive in five years or less expensive in five years that's the question and then how much more expensive and that should help you gauge whether or not you actually think there's going to be hyperinflation if you think a 200 set of headsets or whatever these things cost is gonna double in price then okay obviously you align with the belief that there's going to be hyperinflation now what i want to do is i want to introduce you to something known as the survey of professional forecasters that the federal reserve board looks at and and the many different federal reserve banks now a survey of professional forecasters is actually really unique because it's basically asking analysts throughout the country whether or not they think they're go there's going to be inflation so these could be economists they could be analysts like and i'm not saying that they are a part of this because these the participants are anonymous for this but it could be somebody like an economist working for arc invest who does models on inflation like those are the kind of people who get included in this survey and then you like you can apply for this but they will do their dude like these the surveying company uh well the federal reserve bank of philadelphia and their surveying department uh does their due diligence on people to make sure they're they're actually involved in basically dealing with economic projections every day especially related to inflation like they're trying to get really high quality survey data here from outside of the fed so this is not the fed this is not the government saying this which we know those are different these are the professional forecasters in the united states what do they think how bad is it going to get how bad are we going to see inflation all right so let's go ahead and pull up the survey i'm obviously not going to read you the whole uh letter here because well i already read it and i it's easier for me to just synthesize the darn thing basically on page one they're like hey when the pandemic struck we thought inflation was going to be really really low for a long period of time but we've recovered a lot faster and now we think inflation could trend up a little bit but here let's show you graphically what we think inflation expectations are going to do now before i show you these charts there's something really interesting you have to know i uh gotten a little confused and i don't like getting confused because if i'm confused on something i'm not gonna bs you and pretend i understand it and uh put you know some some garbage video or whatever together so i was looking at a particular chart and uh the the x-axis on the bottom this was talking about six to ten year projections for a particular chart and uh the x-axis along the bottom here showed 2016 to 2021 and i'm like wait a minute this is supposed to be for six to 10 years out so i actually got on the phone with the federal reserve and let me show you or play the clip for you of what they said and then let's synthesize what that means and then get to the results i think it's pretty interesting because this is what every youtuber should do when they don't understand something and quite frankly what the mainstream media should do as well but anyway hi there my name is kevin uh i was just talking with another one of the staff members about an economic letter uh that was put out between uh the bank of san francisco and uh the philadelphia fed survey and i was wondering if i could ask a quick question on it uh yeah i'm not quite sure what paper you're referring to but you can ask if i know anything about it i'll let you know sure it says dispersion of short-term inflation outlook u.s expectations six to ten years ahead yeah okay and uh and it's been and uh on the horizontal axis which is of concern to you it's um their concern is what now well it the the title is six to ten years ahead but the horizontal axis gives me dates 2016 to 2021.
so i'm not really getting i'm getting like six to ten years back here's the here's the explanation uh first of all i believe uh we have a similar series that comes from the good of the event surveyed a professional forecaster yes that's it yeah and um the the the dates on the uh on the uh horizontal axis are probably survey dates not dates of the horizon ah okay okay so now we understand how these graphs work or at least you heard them explain it so i'll give a little re-explanation here and this is pretty interesting so what they're saying is when we look at u.s expectations one year ahead every time they ask these forecasters they would say okay it's 2017.
hey what do you all think inflation is going to be in one year from now that's what they're asking so this point here is what do you think inflation is going to be in one year from now the top line are the top 25 percent and that's not like the top best those are just the ones with the highest expectations so this is highest 25 percent lowest 25 and then this is called the median right here so so roughly the middle okay so in 2021 the survey that was just conducted the top 25 or the people with the highest inflation expectation the professional forecasters they believe that inflation could go as high as draw a straight line back somewhere around 2.6 that's not hyperinflation that's not that's that's just in one year right so maybe that hyperinflation will come in the longer term but one year ahead the most bearish people on inflation the professionals think maybe we'll be at 2.6 maybe now the other people who are a little bit more you know like hey we actually don't think we're going to see as much inflation these guys are like 1.7 1.8 and the middle number here if i draw this straight over on the polygon tool has us around like 2.2 2.3 percent so okay that's not big inflation what about eurozone it's no better over there in fact it's like they they have even more compression like these numbers are actually pretty wide apart like if i do you know from here to here see this sort of wedge we've got right here it's pretty wide look at the wedge over here it's uh it's it's probably like half as as large of a wedge that we've got over here in in the difference in other words they have more consensus over here in europe uh and we can see if we draw this line back here get a nice straight line oop that's not the polygon tool we gotta turn turn the polygon tool on and this works much better there we go so we're at about what 1.6 on the high side and on the low side we're like 0.9 0.8 percent for inflation it's crazy so for one year out not expecting inflation let's now go to six to ten years out okay this is the big fear that that's it that the 2020s are going to be like the great depression again we're going to get hyperinflation rates are going up we're all screwed the economy is going to collapse okay these are the 6 to 10 year projections and remember what the dude said on the phone the moment on the chart at the x-axis is when the survey was taken for people's thoughts going forward here are u.s expectations going forward so u.s expectations for six to ten years ahead are that on the high side the high side the top the 25 of people with the highest projections they believe that uh based on the survey that was just conducted they believe in a long run we might be on the high side around 2.7 inflation and on the low side the bottom 25 percent they actually think we're gonna match that two percent level uh and the median forecast is that we might run slightly above that which the fed has never actually achieved their inflation target which they've they've only recently had the inflation target i think it was it's like 2012 they started having the inflation targets and they've never gotten to their two percent target uh and so here in six to ten years society or i should say the professional forecasters they actually believe that the fed should accomplish uh their expectations and and maybe will be a tiny bit behind that but none or a tiny bit above that you know 2.2 2.3 but none of this is hyper inflation right now it is true they're not it's not like they're all below 2 so they do think yeah look if we keep up at this pace the money printing that's going on sure we can get to that two percent but that's what the fed wants this is not a catalyst for a massive market crash is it a shift for preparing for yeah rates are going to be a little higher sure the same is true in europe you look in europe they're also thinking on the high side maybe two percent and on the low side around one and a half percent so about a half percent less inflation than u.s expectations but overall the bottom line messaging here is simple professional forecasters don't see hyper runaway inflation instead they see the fed actually getting close to achieving its goals and yeah that does mean at some point in 2023 2024 rates will go up a bit yeah we'll have some short-term adjustments but are we potentially at least based on this survey going to see runaway inflation that leads to a massive epic catastrophic crash because all of a sudden we got seven eight ten percent inflation because the velocity of money went up or this that or the other well at least according to these professional forecasters the answer is no and there are a bunch of them it's not like it's just like a huddle up group of three people who want to sell you something it's an anonymous group of i want to say somewhere around 50 professional surveyors and they just regularly give their models to the fed and say well this is what we think in the business world so there you have it ose programs a link down below to build your wealth and get yourself two totally free stocks with weeble by going to mackkevin.com weeble deposit 100 and get up to fifty 1850 in free stocks thanks for watching and we'll see you next time
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