원문 보기
wow just this morning we got a producer price numbers and J pound had a big message for us and I think he gave us a hint as to what we should be expecting for tomorrow this is a pretty big deal so let's get into exactly what happened this morning what your own Paul just said what do expect going forward and how this could affect your trading and potentially long-term investing in this video I'm going to go through my strategy going into CPI as well to give you a bit of a preview of what's going on keep in mind just this morning I sent out an alert at 7:48 a.m.
uh which puts you right here uh on that uh oops let's go ahead and uh there we go puts you right there on the Tesla chart and we played calls all the way up to that 178 line when we sent that alert out we were able to pick up almost 69,000 bucks on that Tesla and that Spirit trade we do have an expiring coupon code on those uh trade alerts and the program uh coming out uh tomorrow tomorrow at 11:59 that'll expire we did send that alert just so you could see it now keep in mind this is California time we sent that alert right there at 748 which aligns since my weebl's on Eastern time which aligns and I gave a full description there I'm just showing a little preview there which aligns with my alert right there 10:48 Eastern Time 7:48 uh in California time so we played these lines pretty nicely got out at about 178 let's go all right so now for the summary so uh a PPI this morning came in hotter than expected Jal was asked about it and he indicated hey look it was actually pretty mixed the reason for that is some portions came in hot and then within that's the services section came in a little hotter 34s of the increase was due to services and we got a little hotter than expected Reed in the April data uh we had uh an overe expectations month-over-month and core month over Monon read but the downward revisions from last month were actually greater so we beat by 02 on the month over month but came down by3 on the prior month and then on the core month of a month we beat by3 but came down by3 which is sort of balancing this out if anything somewhat to the doish side now Jerome Powell when asked about this called this data mixed now what's interesting about this is he's asked hey you know what part of inflation concerns you and this I thought was very interesting he said that really you don't need all three of the buckets remember Goods Housing Services and non-housing services he says we don't need all three of those to actually come back down to 2% this is the first time he said this and that's the moment that I went bullish when he said this I went bullish because once again he started washing his hands of higher inflation data which that might be shortterm medicine maybe he's just propping us up to let us down in fact I think my this time is different count he said this time is different like three or four times during this time we'll talk about that in a moment but what he really did so you know maybe he's setting up false expectations here right but what he really did is said the PPI d was mixed we'll see what CPI comes in tomorrow but we still expect some progress on inflation in the second half of the year and we're going to need more than just one quarter of data to see what the trend of inflation is so think about what he did there for a moment he washed away the entire first quarter going one quarter doesn't make a trend look at how doish he's trying to be he washed away the entire first quarter this morning he's like the revision were good it was pretty mixed not a big deal we're going to need more data than that and then when he's asked about you know rates basically potentially going up He suggests eh very small probability uh he does say I don't want to give up on it yet now I thought that was interesting because it does somewhat imply that there's a little bit of them that it says uh he might have to flip on us in U-turn and go Paul vulker uh that's kind of of why in my trade alert that I sent this morning that almost $69,000 realized profit uh right here I wrote uh 80% bull 20% Hawk the 20% Hawk that I wrote on this on this post is because Jerome Powell uh it gave this hint that I haven't heard him give before this I don't want to give up on it yet so he's really confident that inflation's going to come down he just believes it's going to take longer but I want to be clear when he said that you don't need all three of those buckets to go down to 2% to me I thought that was really interesting that that was a breaking with uh the tradition of What markets have thought that you really want all of those buckets at 2% he's really trying to say hey if we have you know housing uh non-housing Services inflation running at say 3% and goods inflation running at netive - 1% and Housing Services at zero well then we average to let's say 2% the math might not be perfect there but you get my point the point is if if you can average out to 2% then then who cares if services are running a little hot that was another way of washing this inflation data and that's really weird I I don't know if it's sustainable now keep in mind obviously we we're in the middle of a meme rally we've got uh I've actually posted uh the short interest on ec.com just go to ec.com I posted all the short interest for today that people have been interested in sun power at 95% this doesn't cost any money this is totally free right I like to be transparent yes the courses on building your wealth with the expiring code tomorrow those cost money but you only pay for those once you know some people have been in those for four or five years now and and and they get more value every single day uh but anyway um sun power 95% beyond meat 41% Evo 31 plug 28 run 24 uh Lucid 31 Virgin Galactic 30 laser 30 carvana 28 Spirit Airlines 27 microvision 25 GameStop 23 Tupperware 23 rivan 21 FUBU 21 amc1 19 Sofi 18 Till Ray 14 clove 13 and djt 99.3% uh short of uh as a percentage of float over here uh so you're going to see some of this data over here on ec.com you're welcome to scroll through this and see this but you also see some of my notes uh from jpow but let's keep going because I'm also adding more sort of opinion here in this video to add to the facts of what ja house said uh so that way you get some more contextualization so uh I've personally been concerned about the labor market the labor Market's been a a a big source of concern for me it's something that's made me nervous and uncertain mostly because I'm seeing uh more people get laid off and then having trouble getting new jobs we're seeing job openings roll over Jerome PA says we're back at 2019 levels of Labor Market tightness which he says is good he sort of cheers that we have 27 months of under 4% unemployment which In fairness it's really good data he's absolutely right about that says we have a very strong labor market Rising spending households are in good shape financially we're not over levered he says consumer spending has held up business spending has been strong large immigration uh they're consuming and working boosting growth uh the uh labor market is very very strong uh he says a little type of there there we go labor Market is very very strong it's coming into better balance though and so he he sees it sort of cooling but he calls it a gradual cooling some of the things in the labor market that I've been seeing have personally made me a little more nervous but maybe I'm being too bearish and so I have to be real here when I when I listen to japal he definitely seems more bullish uh than than maybe I have been and so this is why I also like to when when I heard this bullishness I'm like I'm going buy some calls and I'm glad 6 9% I'm going to take it I'm going pick that up and put in my pocket and go thank you very much but anyway uh on inflation higher than expected q1 uh did uh he does say he did not expect a smooth road but inflation was higher than expected and we'll have to let restrictive policy uh continue to do its work basically uh and so um the the big message here from japal is we we can really expect to stay at these rates for longer that we don't really need to hike and even though inflation data has come in mixed on PPI it's not something that's really concerning him at this point neither is uh the banking sector now he did mention a few times this time is different people locking in low rate mortgages and therefore this economy is maybe uh less exposed to some of the risks of being in a bubble which she mentioned the word bubble as well uh part of that was due to the banking sector and he said that the biggest problem in the banking sector is when you get a banking run the Netherlands Central Banker was there as well he talked about June being the tentative First Rate cut and services inflation coming down finally which by the way is is good like service inflation coming down in in the Netherlands is good because that probably does mean at some point in the long term we'll have Global Services disinflation right and that'll help us in the United States as well but really I think overall this was a very uh bullish shape how it could have been a lot more hawkish uh it's not a surprise to me we kind of started seeing the market move up after that and going into jpow we had nervousness right so opening statements you get this rally oh no japal is starting to talk about inflation Market goes down I entered my calls right here at 1048 Eastern I sent those alerts uh uh at at 10:48 is when I sent those uh those alerts uh and uh and and you can see here there were a few minutes of sort of sideways but then as soon as that event started coming to to an end that's when you started really seeing a run now how sustainable that is going to be into the rest of the day I don't know I just really wanted to trade jpow talking but it's possible we could also get a rally into the close I don't think we're going to have a fall into the close uh and and you can see here off of that alert uh there there plenty of opportunities here to close around 178 in fact if you want it to be perfect you know I I think I closed right about here as we were just hitting 178 that was my goal run to 178 you could have actually held to about 17950 almost 17949 over here but personally I'm a big fan when it comes to trading that I go in with a strategy I try to go Line to Line and when I when I make a profit I'm going take a profit I don't need to squeeze every single dollar out of a trade uh the worst thing to have is the fomo of of oh I should have sold there I would have had more money uh because that'll leave you in trades too long and you might dime in hand a losing trade for too long and that's when you really get smoked in trading so just some sort of free trade advice there uh but anyway these are my thoughts on Jal I have to say maybe I need to re-evaluate some of my Haw my my sort of um bearishness but let me be clear uh I still see cracks in the labor market I still see cracks with household debt bnpl I think is is this this uh this sector the non-bank sector that jpow is uh you know he's aware of he mentioned it too the non-bank sector doesn't have that regulation as much as what he said compared to the regular banking sector so he's he's aware of these I I I don't know I have to also be careful that I'm not getting too bullish just because jpow is bullish but because he could flip very quickly so uh I'm I'm going to go into CPI tomorrow hedged uh now the $69,000 basically we just made uh basically means all of my hedges could go to zero and I think I'd still be up money which is crazy uh and I don't expect them to go to zero but um if we get a bullish or mixed CPI read tomorrow mixed mixed or or better data is going to be bullish the only way we really get bearish data tomorrow on CPI is if we end up getting H let's look at the expectations uh we're looking at 04 on month over month3 on month over month core you'd really need those to come in hot and the revisions not to offset that so you'd really have to be CPI month over month like 0.5 Core5 and the revisions coming in flat basically no revisions uh that that's really the way I think you would get a bearish day tomorrow and I don't think a lot of people are hedging going into tomorrow so I still think there's an opportunity to pick up some cheap Hedges today going into tomorrow uh if you want to hedge your long portfolio Hedges are a little different from a day trade though right day trade you're playing the lines hedging you're really playing playing an event and you're trying to protect yourself from some some downside elsewhere in your portfolio in the event you had some kind of Correction so for example I'm way more long uh than I have my hedge but my hedge is also leveraged through options uh to where if my hedge pays off it'll pay out substantially probably more than than the loss the overall portfolio would experience so again that's the nature of a hedge so we'll see how the day goes but uh CPI obviously tomorrow is going to be a big deal there's a chance you get a rally into the close on the bullish japal we had today and the the mixed PPI data which I think is a little bit of a hint that we're going to get a pretty basic CPI report tomorrow uh but uh it's also something to keep in mind that the markets tend to have some fear going into the close before CPI uh mostly because of the fear of the unknown so keep that at the back of your mind if you are thinking about going bullish on the day uh you know nvidia's obviously gone from negative to positive you could see that uh here I wouldn't like there is a risk that while you could run towards the close like the last bit into the close sometimes you see a selloff right before CPI so if you're getting tendies on a run uh if they come quickly I'm a big fan of taking them if you can milk them throughout the day great take them BTC is sending a somewhat bullish signal given that we're trending above that 617 Line This 617 line everybody should have this one drawn 61741 uh it's it's not so perfect right here on the one minute chart but if you go out on the 30 minute uh you know it's it's okay you got a couple rejects over here a few rejects over here I just find we sort of Magneto around that that's just my see kind of pause over here a little bit you get a bounce over here a little bit you know we we've played this line many times before three over here one over here uh and when we extend below it we keep coming back to it when we extend above it we keep coming back to it so that's just been sort of a recent Trend that I've seen I drew it as yellow because it's not as perfect as if it were a blue uh that's just sort of my trading strategy to to differentiate the lines that I have you know yellow is like I this looks like something that's going on like one that I saw as well that we traded on this was a rougher trade I only made 800 bucks on this trade uh I was up like 5 or 6,000 at one point and I kept holding it and I got out at positive 800 but uh it was this trade line right here 1794 when we rejected off of that line I closed and got and then it dropped all the way down to like 16 bucks or whatever so this I think is becoming a more important line uh though uh though we'll see you know we we kind of we touched it a little bit over here so we'll see what happens with Robin Hood clearly we're moving up a a little higher now because of the momentum movement that we're getting over here at gme and uh AMC gme line today that I'm watching personally for trades is right here it's where we're sitting right now basically the 52 52 40ish line right about there trying to break through on that now so that's another one that I'm watching so we'll see uh I'll do one last check here on at sorry n phase and I'll give some final thoughts this no man's land not ideal remember I'm a big fan of playing the lines uh easy one today I didn't play this one but it would have been an easy one is when we extended above 19 I was looking at it but but I usually don't like trading the first 15 minutes so I did not trade on it but I was watching it I'm like ooh extending above 119 that's going to pull back sure enough pulls back breaks the 119 look at that right down uh to our 113 line and comes up and you know that Line's been there for like ever 11340 is the line so uh I like playing the lines and and I don't know if we're GNA have enough momentum to really push Tesla higher than this it's possible but I don't I don't know that we're going to make it to 183 today before CPI now if we get a bullish CPI oh we'll push right up to 183 tomorrow but uh I don't know that I want to bet on a bullish CPI and that's why I'm going in a little hedged especially with that PPI data we got this morning if uh we don't get as generous of a revision we might be a little screwed on CPI but we'll see J pal still keep in mind thinks that there's a good chance we're going to see a downward move in inflation in the second half of the year so that's jpow take is the second half the year ends up uh giving us the bullish inflation read now let me see what the suits are saying if there's anything on uh jpow from what the suits are saying sometimes you could get something from Nick T if you don't follow him yet on Twitter I'm I'm a big fan of him x uh he's he's a good guy and we have uh any tweets from him 55 minutes ago no meaningful change in the economic Outlook since pow's last comments uh no meaningful change in the El today key line we're just going to have to see where the inflation data fall out so uh Nick T other takeaways Powell maintains policy is tight by many measures the policy rate is restrictive the question is is it sufficiently restrictive and that's going to be a question that time will tell and we do not expect this to be a smooth Road these are some of the similar summaries that we got balance of risk no timetable for cuts he used to by the way say we'd like to cut this year we didn't we didn't see that here now if I go into the uh probability of rate Cuts in December we're sitting at about 1.75 right now so we've been somewhat stable there and tomorrow's CPI is really going to move us into uh One Direction or another so that's Nick t a little bit from the suits as well and uh broadly we got uh we got a little bit of that post uh Powell uh rally here as expected how we go into the close I think it'll be tenuous again until CPI keep in mind that CPI tomorrow is uh is is like the last big Catalyst for a while uh I mean you got Nvidia earnings coming up and obviously those will be a big Catalyst for AI but I mean I'll I'll I'll read off the Catalyst to you uh quick reminder the the first Catalyst after CPI and retail sales tomorrow uh which a CPI we've already gone through retail sales are expected to come in uh Advance point4 X Auto point2 X Auto gas .1 so low expectations on retail sales we could beat that you do not want retail sales to come in negative and CPI to come in hot that'll freak people out that'll be a stagflation trade the Hedge will'll pay off tendies on that one tomorrow uh if that happens stagflation is not what you want after tomorrow uh after tomorrow so after CPI retail sales the next Catalyst will be the uh expiration of the coupon code 1159 p.m.
tomorrow remember we just while we jpow traded pulled off this almost $69,000 profit that's a realized p&l for today uh on two trades we placed one on uh Spirit Airlines and one on Tesla so and you'll get all of those trade alerts no guarantees we can always always print uh but uh let's just say we've had a really good last 30 days been killing it so knock off some wood okay uh then uh and email us if you have questions at staff meetkevin.com but that expires tomorrow most people who email us they just want to bundle up they say like hey you know I already have a course I want the real estate course or I'm in the real estate course I want the stocks one whatever we're going to get initial claims on Thursday to 20,000 is what we're expecting continuing claims uh 7 1880 is the expectation those will be slightly softer than what we got last week so we'll see we'll also get housing starts expected to be up 7.5% month over month so we'll see if we get that that'll be tomorrow we'll get Import and Export prices uh tomorrow so we'll get a lot of price data tomorrow all of that by the sorry that's Thursday morning all of that over the next two days all at 5:30 a.m.
so if you haven't yet subscribed to the meet Kevin Market live Channel Make sure you do that meet Kevin Market live you actually download the meet Kev an app in the iPhone Apple Store uh and get notifications if if you'd prefer to have that all in one place and we're going to make sure that comes back up again on Android as well for those green textures you you got to have green respect too so those are the really really the big catalysts coming up after that if I go into next week I get you know pmis University of Michigan consumer sentiment that's all a little boring honestly none of those are like Mega Catalyst really the next Mega catalyst h i mean frankly it's Nvidia I mean we'll get Walmart on Thursday John Deere on Thursday we'll get JD but Baba missed so uh not great there for for Chinese sales Palo Alto networks Lowe's and Macy's next week Toll Brothers Target next week Nvidia and snowflake mark your calendar for May 22nd that's a week from tomorrow a week from the expiration of the coupon code uh that'll come out we'll also get into it at the uh end of next week and on ly then we're kind of Chill on Catalyst we don't have the uh next fomc meeting until I think it's the third week of June oh the second week of June June 12th and then the next jobs report should be the first Friday of June which is June 7th June 7th we'll get the first jobs actually I think that's the second Friday because the first Friday might end up on the first let me see here uh nope it is the first Friday yeah first Friday uh we'll get the job status so honestly after tomorrow we're kind of just twiddling our thumbs until Nvidia next Wednesday and then uh jobs on the 7th and jpow on the 12th and then of course we'll have CPI again which you may as well write that one down CPI uh release for June should be like June 12th as well it is on fed day you get the May inflation data on fed day that's going to be a v day but that's all down the road uh so anyway yeah that gives you an overview of everything that jpow just said my thoughts on the market my thoughts on hedging uh and again if if we could get non-stack inflationary numbers tomorrow maybe I'm being too bearish remember I've been Mega Bull since like November of 2022 Nike Swoosh volatile recovery you know everything Moon Moon Moon up until about the last 6 weeks I try to be as transparent as possible the channel uh I love all of you who support me and always come back so so thank you for that um I'm not always right I just I try to give you my opinions and I'll tell you every freaking turn jpow late like this year he just keeps trying to go for the bullishness I don't know like I think he already knows what the CPI data is tomorrow and I don't think he would have been as bullish today if the CPI would have been bad for tomorrow so I'm I'm like a little nervous that my hedges are just going to get burned tomorrow but I'd also be really pissed if I closed my hedges and then we got a Miss because then I'm going unprotected in tomorrow and remember folks always use protection and get life insurance in as little as 5 minutes did you know they were a sponsor of the channel I just finished this at the beginning of the video um I say that because sometimes people get mad at me in the comments you're like Kevin it seems like your cup is empty you're right right now it is empty but anyway um make sure slife paid partner of the channel anyway with that said let's push a button here go yourself is that clear or ver than house hack nor am I personally acting as a market maker look at that vwap move look at that double reject on the vwap for end phase playing the vwap wow that's definitely algorithmic anyway thanks folks uh we'll see you all in the next one uh what if you want to quickie wrap your sticky stop no I've never heard of that before I can't unsee that I got to gst and you
Comments 0