저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 이 영상은 2017년 버핏이 찰리 멍거의 과거 발언을 인용·해설한 것으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없고 공매도·레버리지·고빈도거래·연준 정책·신문 투자에 대한 원칙적 견해가 주를 이룬다. 공매도: 멍거는 공매도를 '고통을 돈과 바꾸는 일'로 봤다. 공매도는 이론상 손실이 무한대일 수 있어 잠을 잘 수 없고, 결국 가치가 0이 되거나 사기로 드러나더라도 중간 과정이 매우 불쾌하므로 버크셔는 이를 선호하지 않는다고 설명. 유로존: 멍거는 그리스를 EU에 편입시킨 것을 '쥐약을 내놓는 것'에 비유. 통화는 통일했지만 재정정책·문화·생산비용 등은 동기화하지 않아 실패가 불가피했다는 취지. 버핏은 비유 표현은 다소 과하다고 평가. 은행과 레버리지: 멍거가 은행가를 헤로인 중독자에 비유한 것을 두고, 예금 보증 등으로 돈을 끌어모을 수 있어 제한 없이 두면 과도한 레버리지 유혹이 크다고 지적. 파생상품이 사람들이 이해하는 것보다 훨씬 큰 레버리지를 만든다는 우려에 버핏도 동의하며 규제 필요성 공감. 고빈도거래(HFT): 멍거는 이를 '합법화된 프런트러닝'으로 규정. 버핏은 HFT 총수익은 결국 투자자 주머니에서 나오며 사회적 목적도 불분명하다고 평가. 연준·금리: 멍거는 연준(특히 버냉키)이 저금리를 장기간 유지해 저축자와 고정수익 생활자에게 큰 피해를 줬다고 평가. 버핏은 당시 경제 위험이 더 컸기에 버냉키의 판단은 대체로 옳았다고 봄. 조지 부시 시기의 재정·통화 완화 지지 발언도 언급. 트위터: 멍거는 트위터를 전염병처럼 피한다고 했고, 버핏은 트위터 계정은 있으나 트윗은 두 번뿐이라고 언급. 신문 투자: 버핏은 신문 매입을 '손익 기대 수익은 낮지만 버크셔 실적을 움직이지는 않는 소소한 행위'로 설명하며 멍거의 표현을 인용. 출연자 전망: 영상 내 명시적 시장 전망이나 종목 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
at one point you turn to Charlie Munger today and you said who haven't we insulted yet and I know you're not Charlie's keeper but would you indulge me for just a minute sure let's go through some of the things you said okay I'd like to get your take on them first of all on short sellers he said we don't like trading agony for money that's the reason he said that is because the stock when you short it and theoretically go to infinity when you and when you buy a stock at ten you can only lose ten points well you're short a stock attended go two hundred or two hundred and and occasionally you'll get into a situation on the short where you may know that eventually it's going to turn out to be worth nothing or very close to it or it's a fraud but what it can do in between can be very very unpleasant and we like to sleep well and you can't sleep well if you're short a lot of stocks okay when he was asked about Greece Charlie said let's see letting grease into the EU is sort of like serving up rat poison for would increase why don't we my god i would not have chosen that the i think what he was getting at was that putting 17 countries into a monetary union where you synchronize the currency but you didn't synchronize any other aspects of their economies I mean the fiscal policies culture cost of production was doomed to failure and it could have used other illustrations of countries all right let's talk a little bit of a banker's he on Friday compared them to heroin addict yeah well that's colorful Charlie but I would say this that leverages entice people to do crazy things since for time immemorial bankers have an ability to attract money because they offer government guarantee deposits you've got a government energy security so unless there are limits on them there will be great temptations to over leveraged and they did some of that they did it they can do it through other instruments you know off-balance-sheet things riveters or that sort of thing so you really need limitations on people and he would say that probably say to that heroin basically is leverage in the ability to just to borrow more and more money through cabassa or whatever and that that should be controlled would you go to regulation as strictly a teen has laid out some of his ideas well we're in general agreement there should be limitations are not much leverage you get in the system and he and I are both suspicious of the degree to which derivatives can create a whole lot more leverage than people understand he also said on Friday that when it comes to high-frequency traders he thinks it's basically legalized front-running that's what it is yeah that's what it is i mean this model game and why a let's say that high frequency trading produces gross income of X that X comes out of somebody does it doesn't make Berkshire Hathaway more productive it doesn't do anything of the sort he comes one way or another comes out of the pocket of investors and the social purpose of it is rather hard to discern another thing Charlie had to say when he was asked about the Fed and their policies when it comes to interest rates he said look the Fed looked around and they heard the favors because they were convenient yeah well it had to hurt somebody and that Bernanke had tough choices to make but he decided to step on the gas pedal in terms of monetary policy and he brought knowledge to virtually unheard of levels and kept them there and and and he still got his foot on the pedal and that really does hurt savers I mean it is it has made it extremely difficult for all kinds of people who live on fixed income investments and but unfortunately there you know that was a byproduct and probably Bernanke and maybe directly i would say probably correctly decided that the dangerous to the economy were greater if he didn't do it when it comes to twitter Charlie says he stays away from it like the plague I know you have a Twitter account you've only tweeted twice do you expect the tweet again anytime soon it's not been at the top of my mind I I am Charlie's the only guy left was with it than I am and you know you had a really interesting comment today we talked about the ten smartest words and economic history can you repeat those far well it was when George Bush came out for the white allison said that when he doesn't loosen up the sucker could go down and that summed it up and its really a number of his members of his party disagreed with his actions during that time George Bush was right on the money he needed calls needed Bernanke needed them to put their foot to the floor in terms of loosening up things and it worked and it he hadn't done that I think the consequence it would have been terrible when you were explaining why you've been buying newspapers Charlie at one point said basically you're saying is exception and you like doing it he has a way of saving things doesn't he he's right and we're not doing anything dumb in the sense that we won't get a return on them but in terms of moving the needle at Berkshire it will never do it Lauren thank you very much for exact thank you buddy
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