저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 그린블라트는 시가총액 가중 지수의 구조적 결함을 지적하며 개인투자자도 가치투자 기반의 균등가중·펀더멘털 가중 지수로 시장을 이길 수 있다고 주장한다. [책 소개] 그린블라트는 신간 'The Big Secret'를 소개하며, 전작 'The Little Book That Beats the Market'을 쓴 뒤 개인투자자가 직접 실행하기 어렵다는 점을 깨닫고 웹사이트로 실행을 도왔다고 설명한다. 자녀와 20~30개 종목 포트폴리오를 관리해 보니 세금 등 실무가 어렵다는 것을 체감했다고 한다. [개인투자자의 기회] 대형 펀드매니저의 약 70%는 S&P500이나 러셀1000 같은 인덱스에 못 미치며, 과거 3·5·10년 성과는 이후 성과와 상관관계가 거의 없다는 것이 근거다. 전통적 인덱스 펀드 추천이 많지만 그린블라트는 더 나은 방법이 있다고 본다. [시가총액 가중 지수의 결함] 시가총액 가중 지수는 고평가 종목을 자동으로 더 많이 담고 저평가 종목은 덜 담아 연 약 2% 손실을 준다고 주장한다. 시장이 비효율적이라는 벤저민 그레이엄·워런 버핏 관점을 전제로 한다. [대안: 균등가중·펀더멘털 가중] 균등가중 지수는 오차를 체계적이 아닌 무작위로 만들어 연 약 2%를 되찾는다고 한다. 펀더멘털 가중 지수도 같은 효과를 낸다고 설명한다. [가치 지수 성과] 자사가 만든 가치 기반 지수는 가격이 싼 종목에 더 많은 비중을 두며, 변동성은 S&P500·러셀1000과 비슷하면서 최근 20년간 연 약 7% 높은 수익을 냈다고 주장한다. 전략은 '싼 회사에 더 많이 담는 것'으로 단순하다고 강조한다. [단기화와 기회] 정보 접근성·컴퓨팅 파워·월가 인력이 늘었는데도 단순 가치 팩터는 지난 20~30년간 오히려 강해졌다. 이유는 세계가 더 제도화(기관화)되어 단기 실적·월간 수익률 보고 압력 등 구조적 왜곡이 생겼기 때문이라고 설명한다. [1990년대 일화] 80년대 후반 파트너십에 투자한 fund of funds가 분기 서한 대신 월간 수익률 보고를 요구했던 사례를 들어, 기관의 단기 성과 압박이 장기 가치투자 기회를 만든다고 말한다. [종목·자산 전망] 이 영상에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Joe good to have you with us we had you on a little over a year ago but since then you've come out with a new book called the big secret and this follows another book that you had why two books for investor advice couldn't you get it all in the first book which is called the little book that beats the market well it's not even as good as that is really my third book so I don't know excuse me so I wrote a book six years ago called the little book to beat the market and it really gave a very simple way for people to to beat the market I actually ended up after I finished the book getting worried that people would kind of screw it up and I was really trying to help people so and there aren't great data sources and everything else so we actually set up a website to do everything for them except that I made a little mistake it actually ended up being pretty hard I try doing it with my kids and managing a portfolio of 20 or 30 Securities and keeping track of the taxes and everything else it turns out most people you know it's kind of hard to do it yourself and I even found it hard with my own kids so I learned a lot we did a lot of research since the first book and learn some more things and came out with something that I guess is even easier for people to do and also take advantage of our latest research now before we get to that then we've got some new funds you maintain that an image the individual investor can beat the big guys as you put it how can that be well it's pretty interesting from the research we did in the book most people know that the typical index funds the S&P 500 and the russell 1000 if you invest in those they beat most managers but roughly about seventy percent of the managers and that's pretty powerful it's because of their low fees and that most managers aren't really adding value so one logical thing to do would be to say well I know only thirty percent of the managers beat the typical index so how do I find those guys and it turns out if you look back over the last three five and ten years of those managers records there's really no correlation between how they do in the next 3 5 10 which is really what you're trying to figure out so that's why you know most many at least advisors have have recommended and and possibly rightly that index funds for the individual investor doesn't know how to pick stocks on their own it may be a good opportunity for most people so we set out to do something a little better and as it turns out the regular index is the S&P 500 or the russell 1000 are seriously flawed as it turns out even though they be the most active managers are still very seriously flawed and they do something that costs investors about two percent a year and that really is is that their market cap weighted indexes which means they put more weight into the larger market cap and so that it has changed the losers right so if you believe like Ben Graham or Warren Buffett that the market sometimes emotional it's not efficient like so many professors have professed over many years it's not efficient that means that if the market does get emotional over the short term that some stocks are overpriced and some are underpriced and a market a market cap weighted index if a stock is overpriced advice too much of it automatically and if it's underpriced advice too little bit automatically because it's based on market cap which is essentially priced so it sounds crazy but it's actually systematically doing the wrong thing at every point whenever there's an inefficient we price stock and so there's an easy way to correct that and they're actually equally weighted indexes instead of putting putting more in the larger market cap companies it actually puts an equally wait so if you have the S&P 500 it will put as much way than stock number one as it will in stock number 500 it still makes plenty of errors in other words it's an equally waiting but those errors are now random not systematic like a market cap weighted index so you actually get back the two percent a year and the few people come out with something called fundamentally weighted indexes it's just another way to wait stocks without using Christ and therefore the errors in those indexes are also random and you get back to two percent from those two and since we're value investors and have been done a lot of research on value investing over a long period of time we create an index that we call valuated which just means the cheap or something is the more weight we put into it and it's actually more diversified than you know the S&P 500 or Russell 1000 index has the same volatility has the same data yet over the last 20 years you would learn seven percent more a year following that strategy and it's ridiculously simple just put more weight in the cheaper company before we get to that you make the point the reason why there is such opportunity for the individual is that in the investor world you believe it's become more short-term focused which means by I so low that's a really great point a big picture is that what when you when you look back at what's happened over the last 20 30 years there's been more access to information there's been more computing power is the more people going on to Wall Street you know I paid hedge funds and you know proliferation of mutual funds and everything else so there's a lot of smart people actually trying to beat the market quote unquote and so you would think that would be getting tougher and tougher for individual investors to to outperform the market and what it turns out is our simple value factors have actually gotten stronger over the last 20 to 30 years and the reason for that is that the the world has become much more institutionalized meaning I'll just tell a quick story I tell in the book which was that in the late 80s I had an investor in my partnership one of the first fund of funds and these are funds that actually pick managers and you're asking them to find their expertise to fix the best managers and they put that all together in a fun and so one of the first that was put together in the late 80s or at least the ones I knew about asked to invest in our partnership and at the time I was writing quarterly letters and that seemed to be fine for my investors but the funding front said well we have to report more often so could you give us monthly return such as follows another book that you had why two books or investor advice can you get it all in the first book which was called a little book that beats the market well it's not even as good as that is really my third book so excuse me so I wrote a book six years ago called a little book to beat the market and it really gave a very simple way for people to to beat the market I actually ended up after I finished the book getting worried that people would kind of screw it up and I was really trying to help people so and there aren't great data sources and everything else that we actually set up a website to do everything for them except that I made a little mistake it actually ended up being pretty hard I try doing it with my kids and managing a portfolio of 20 or 30 Securities and keeping track of the taxes and everything else it turns out most people you know it's kind of hard to do it yourself and I even found it hard with my own kids so I learned a lot we did a lot of research since the first book and learn some more things and and came out with something that I guess is even easier for people to do and also takes advantage of our latest research now before we get to that and you've got some new funds you maintain this end of the individual investor can beat the big guys as you put it how can that be well it's pretty interesting from the research we did in the book most people know that the typical index funds the S&P 500 and the russell 1000 if you invest in those they beat most managers but roughly about seventy percent of the managers and that's pretty powerful it's because of their low fees and that most managers aren't really adding value so one logical thing to do would be to say well I know only thirty percent of the managers beat the typical index so how do I find those guys and it turns out if you look back over the last three five and ten years of those managers records there's really no correlation between how they do in the next 3 5 10 which is really what you're trying to figure out so that's why you know most you know many at least advisors have have recommended and and possibly rightly that index funds for the individual investor doesn't know how to pick stocks on their own it may be a good opportunity for most people so we set out to do something a little better and as it turns out the regular index is the S&P 500 or the russell 1000 are seriously flawed as it turns out even though they be the most active managers are still very seriously flawed and they do something that costs investors about two percent a year and that really is is that their market cap weighted indexes which means they put more weight into the larger market cap and so that it will charge the losers right so if you believe like Ben Graham or Warren Buffett that the market sometimes emotional it's not efficient like so many professors have professed over many years it's not efficient that means that if the market does get emotional over the short term that some stocks are overpriced and some are underpriced and a market a market cap weighted index if a stock is overpriced advised too much of it automatically and if it's underpriced advised to little bit automatically because it's based on market cap which is essentially priced so it sounds crazy but it's actually systematically doing the wrong thing at every point whenever there's an inefficiently price stock and so there's an easy way to correct that and there are actually equally weighted indexes instead of putting putting more in the larger market cap companies it actually puts an equally wait so if you have the sp500 it will put as much weight in stock number one as it will in stock number 500 it still makes plenty of errors in other words it's an equally waiting but those errors are now random not systematic like a market cap weighted index so you actually get back the two percent a year and the few people come out with something called fundamentally weighted indexes it's just another way to wait stocks without using Christ and therefore the errors and those indexes are also random and you get back to two percent from those two and since we're value investors and have been done a lot of research on value investing over a long period of time we created an index that we call valuated which just means the cheap or something is the more weight we put into it and it's actually more diversified then you know the S&P 500 or russell 1000 index has the same volatility has the same data yet over the last 20 years you would around seven percent more a year following that strategy and it's ridiculously simple just put more weight in the cheaper company before we get to that you make the point the reason why there is such opportunity for the individual is that in the investor world you believe it's become more short-term focused which means by I so well that's a really great point a big picture is that what when you when you look back at what's happened over the last 20 30 years there's been more access to information there's been more computing power there's been more people going on to Wall Street you know I paid hedge funds and you know proliferation of mutual funds and everything else so there's a lot of smart people actually trying to beat the market quote unquote and so you would think that would be getting tougher and tougher for individual investors to to outperform the market and what it turns out is our simple value factors have actually gotten stronger over the last 23 or 30 years and the reason for that is that the the world has become much more institutionalized meaning I'll just tell a quick story I tell them the book which was that in the late 80s I had an investor in my partnership one of the first fund of funds and these are funds that actually pick managers and you're asking them to find their expertise to fix the best managers and they put that all together in a fun and so one of the first that was put together in the late 80s or at least the ones I knew about asked to invest in our partnership and at the time I was writing quarterly letters and that seemed to be fine for my investors but the fund of fun said well we have to report more often so could you give us monthly return
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