저자: PeterLynch·JohnTempleton—1990년대PBSWallStreetWeek인터뷰 · 외국인
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1990년대 원로 투자자 피터 린치와 존 템플턴이 장기 투자 원칙을 설명한 과거 인터뷰로, 종목 선택은 기업 이익과 주가의 직접적 관계에 기반해야 한다는 결론이다. 이익과 주가의 관계: 지난 20년간 다우 지수와 기업 이익이 모두 약 3배 상승했고, 이익이 주가를 결정한다는 점이 핵심이다. 종목 예시: 에이번, 시어스는 20년 전 훌륭한 기업이었지만 주가가 30~60% 하락했고, 코카콜라와 머크는 이익이 15배 늘며 주가도 15배 올랐다. 월마트 사례: 1970년 상장 당시 매장 37개였고 10년 뒤 이익과 주가가 20배 이상 올랐으며, 이후 10년간 이익이 다시 25배 증가했다. 인내심: 린치는 3~5년 보유를 선호하며 단기 수익을 기대하면 실망한다고 설명했다. 템플턴도 평균 5년 보유라고 답했다. 저평가 탐색: 주식은 드물게 진정한 가치에 거래되며 1년에 50% 이상 고평가·저평가가 나타나므로 다수 기업을 분석해야 한다고 말했다. 랜덤워크 반론: 학계는 시장이 효율적이라 분석이 무의미하다고 주장하지만, 린치는 테니스 승패처럼 게임을 포기할 이유가 아니라고 반박했다. 흔한 실수: 기업을 조사하지 않고 매수하는 것, 인내심 부족, 비관적 시장에서 매도하는 것이 대표적 실수다. 최저 가격은 대개 모두가 팔 때 형성된다. 경기 예측 불가: 경기와 시장은 예측할 수 없으므로 기업 자체의 장기 전망에 집중해야 하며, 약 10년마다 약세장이 오지만 예측은 불가능하다. 장기 전망: 템플턴은 과거 20년의 성장(생활수준 60%, 이익 3배, GNP 5배)을 근거로 향후 20년도 유사할 것으로 보았고, 주가는 대략 10년마다 두 배씩 오른다고 예상했다. 다우 예측: 10년 전 3,000 도달을 예측했고 이후 10~20년 내 1만 포인트를 제시한 전망이 나왔다. 은퇴자 소득: 소득이 필요한 사람도 잘 관리된 주식형 펀드에 투자해 필요한 금액을 인출하는 방식이 낫다고 조언했다. 리스크: 일부 종목은 큰 수익을, 일부는 큰 손실을 가져오며, 옵션 투기는 비극이라고 경고했다. 기업을 보유하는 이유가 '오를 것이라서'라면 충분하지 않다. 기업 회생: 크라이슬러, 포드, 보잉의 회생 사례를 들며 회생 가능성을 판단해야 한다고 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 두 사람 모두 장기적으로 낙관적이며, 현재 극도의 비관(1990년 10월)이 저점 가까움을 시사할 수 있다고 보았다.
다듬은 글
operations of international investing who reminded us that the financial world does not end where people stop speaking English Peter you retired in June at the right old age of 46 and that was one month before the Dow Jones Industrials hit their all-time high was this time the intentional were you just getting out while we're getting was good no obviously I had no idea what was going to happen in Kuwait I think the most important thing I've learned in the last 20 years is what's happened to corporate profits It's Magic in 20 years the Dow Jes average has tripled and the profits of the Dow Jones companies have tripled it's a direct relationship to what happens to company's earnings what happens to the stocks and that's the key thing over time many people argue about whether the markets are undervalued or overv valued are you suggesting them that they're usually fairly valued they're always fairly valued when you look in the last 20 years Avon products and Sears these were great companies 20 years ago they've Fallen 30 60% in price in the last 20 years and and over the same period of time Merc Coca-Cola has had their profits go up 15 fold and guess what stocks G up 15 fold so even if the Dow Jones today was 500 You' have been very happy to own Coca-Cola and Mer but there's a direct relationship that's what you have to concentrate on there are people that own electronic socks that don't know the difference between an eom and the senior prom and they're trying to buy SPS and the amazing part is the public is very careful with their money when they buy a dishwasher when they buy a TV set when they rent an apartment they're careful when it comes to the stock market for some reason they just don't do any work and it's not that much a half an hour work would save them a fortune what would they do in that half hour they would first of all see if the company had sales and profits a lot of times they buy companies there's nothing there there's literally nothing there companies are there's nothing to to look at when you look at most companies you say yourself I'm going to tune in later on this company I'll give you an example Walmart started as a public company one month before the show that point they had 37 stores was October of 1970 that point 10 years later you could have tuned in to Walmart their profits are up 20 fold and the stock was up over 20 fold it still another 10 years left profits going up 25 fold in the last 10 years you can make 25 times your money again you have plenty of time you don't have to make money my best talks have been the third year the fourth year the fifth year I own them it's not the third week the fourth week people want the money very rapidly doesn't happen that we going to be very disappointed in the stock market let me bring John in because you told me last time we talked on the air that you were now holding stocks for an average of 5 years is that still true yes leis we don't intend to hold them 5 years but we find if you buy when they're terribly unpopular and depressed they don't suddenly come back you have to be patient Peter said the market in the end is fairly valued if youve made a career of seeking bargain so you sometimes must think it's undervalued here and there very much so yes very rarely is any share valued for its true price a True Value they go in a single year's time 50% too high and 50% too low so it really pays to judge the values of Corporations by the thousands in order to be able to tell which one has the lowest price today in relation to its true value the past weekend I was with a group of academics I mix with all segments of society and they told me that nobody can analyze St that it's all just a random walk and a very efficient market and that the kind of advice that you people give and the kind of analysis you do is worthless how do you respire of them that's just resigning from the game if you take the game of tennis exactly as many losers as winners but that's no reason to give up playing tennis good to you John Peter you talked about the mistake of impatience what are some of the other mistakes people make and then John answer that as well but you start well it's obviously not doing the homework and and not looking into the company I mean if you don't know what they do you have a rough St because the market in the last 20 years had 10 declines of 10% or more and great companies go down and in those declines you have a great opportunity I remember in when the market went down in 1987 dfus sld at $17 a share they had $7 a share in cash I mean that was ridiculous so you have to take it opportunity most people have the brain power almost everybody in this plan has the brain power to make money the stock market the question is whether you have the stomach for it whether you're willing to do a little bit of work that those are the key elements it's not that hard if if you if anybody looked at Dunkin' Donuts or if they look at General Public Utilities I look at General Public Utilities 2 years after 3 month Island it already doubled I was able to make four times my money on it a the company was solid what's your answer John the main thing that people need to learn is that selecting assets is totally different from almost every other activity if you go to 10 doctors and they tell you the same medicine that's the thing to take you go to 10 Engineers to build a bridge they tell you the same thing that's the B but you go to 10 investment advisors and they pick out the same asset you better stay away from to say the same thing to say the same thing in other words the time when an asset is selling at its best bargain price is when most people are trying to sell there's no other reason why an asset will go down to a bargain prod and if you wait until you you through the tunnel and out into the sunshine you'll have to pay a premium price if you even wait until you can see the light at the end of the tunnel you already passed the best bargain days many people think it's foolish to be a long-term Optimist because you have so many problems in this country there problems of debt public and private problems of less than perfect political leadership in either party problems of growing International competition how can you buy stock why don't you just run for the hills well the beauty of the stock is if you put $1,000 in the stock all you can lose is a th000 Ian I've proven that many times you're right you can make 5,000 you can make 10,000 and you don't have to be write half the time if you write three times out of 10 and the times you recognize the companies doing well you understand what they do you add to it you take advantage of it you can make a lot of money you're talking about finding companies the overall state of the economy not affect you at all you can't you never can predict the economy you can't predict the stock market but you you look at Dunkin Donuts you say they're the best donut chain you don't have to worry about Coran Imports you don't have to worry about what's happening with M1 and m3b you just say to yourself they're doing well they know what to give for Desert that's with with all get sound what happens to the company you don't own a lottery ticket time is on your side when you own AA you work you work for that company you'll do well what do you think then we look to the Future you never think it's a dark future but what do you say about these problems there will be bare markets about twice every 10 years and and recessions about twice every 10 or 12 years but nobody has been able to predict them real so the best thing to do is to buy when Shares are thoroughly depressed and that means when other people are selling is this one of those signs right now in all of my 50 years of investment Council I cannot recall a month in which there was such almost Universal pessimism as there were last month in October so that doesn't prove that we can't get still more pessimistic but if you're already the most pessimistic in 50 years you must be somewhere near the bottom at the start of the past decade you artified our Audience by predicting that we could get to around 3,000 in the next decade they laugh when you sat down to play but it turned out to be almost precisely right Carter has now stolen a mar on year he's predicted 10,000 in 20 years but what do you see in 10 and 20 years I think the next 20 years will be just as marvelous as the past 20 in the past uh 20 years the standard of living has gone up 60% the earnings have gone up threefold the dividends have gone up threefold the gross national products have gone up fivefold and I would think our studies indicate that that would be what we expect for the future including share prices the share prices have normally doubled in America about every 10 years so 20 years out they should be four times as high people say to me John now you're approaching middle age yourself so when you get there you'll have to answer this question personally people say to me gee I'm 62 years old I can't afford to buy stocks I need income what do you say to those people they would come out much better if they would buy a well-managed common stock fund and then just tell the fund to send them what income they need to spend almost every mutual fund will send you whatever you request per year per quarter a month so it's a standard system and if you trace it back investing that way will give you the income you want plus capital gains Peter do you believe that stocks will continue to outperform on other Investments I absolutely particular stocks you have to be very careful that's the key Point some stocks in the next 20 years a lot of money's be made a lot of money can be lost I think the people that gamble they buy options what a tragedy if you're right on a company you have a three-month option on or a six-month option times on your side if you own the right companies and you follow them it's some people are playing it's like playing pker without looking at your cars they playing bridge without looking at your cars they own companies and they don't look at they call the broker twice a day to get the price of the stock that doesn't count you have to do a little bit of work you have to be out to the malls maybe a half an hour a month looking at why do you own this company the reason is this sucker is going to go up that's not a very good reason you um you said earlier that you like companies to have earnings you realize that many Brokers will think that's needlessly picky but when I when I look over the last 20 years I think more of the turnaround at Chrysler the turnaround of Ford the turnaround of Boeing you have to say to yourself does this company have a reasonable chance of turning around they have good products and are they going to be solving be be really sad to own a company when they're doing badly because I used to follow the textile industry they had a great expression it's always dark as speak pitch black when you CL things are bad they always get worse you want to look to see is this coming to me around very important statistics thank you both for your common sense and your optimism at a time when we need both we look forward to years more of your very special wisdom from both you one thing we've often been asked is why we didn't do a 1hour special filled with tape highlights a special hour featuring some of the most memorable moments of the first 20 years of Wall Street week with ls Riser when you begin to look at the world of the 1990s uh I think the United States comes down a notch or two should we abolish the Federal Reserve board yes what would you replace it with a computer well what is your attitude toward money that it's a very nice thing to have and how can we become more competitive in America by return to Excellence on most PBS stations Monday
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