저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 공매도 수익이 과거 대비 줄었다고 보며, 신용부도스왑 기반 포지션의 기회가 2008년에는 2007년보다 어려워졌다고 본다. [공매도와 수익 구조] - 펀드 초기 몇 년간 숏 수익은 없었고, 작년에는 전체 수익의 대부분(사실상 100%)이 공매도에서 나왔다고 설명. - 올해는 롱 쪽 수익 비중이 더 클 것으로 전망. [시가평가(Mark to Market)] - 골드만삭스는 매일 시가평가를 엄격히 해 큰 손실을 피했다고 평가. - 유동성이 낮은 파생상품도 일부 물량을 매도해 가격을 확인하는 방식으로 시가평가가 가능하다는 입장. [금융주 및 시장 전망] - JP모건 CEO 다이먼은 위기 정리가 75~85% 진행됐다고 언급했으나, 복잡한 CDO 구조는 평가가 어렵다고 지적. - 신용부도스왑 기반 숏은 2007년엔 하방이 작고 상방이 컸으나, 2008년에는 그런 기회가 줄었다고 판단. [베어스턴스 및 리먼] - 베어스턴스는 유동성 문제였으나 주당 2달러 수준은 사실상 지급불능에 가까웠다고 평가. 자기자본 비율이 낮아 자산 가치 소폭 변동에도 취약. [MBIA 및 공매도 윤리] - MBIA 실적 발표(월요일)를 주목하라고 권고. 컨퍼런스콜 참여 제한 등은 기업 위험 신호로 볼 수 있다고 언급. - 공매도 주장도 공개 발표·정보 신뢰성에 따라 무게를 달리 봐야 한다는 입장. [타겟(Target)] - 애크먼은 타겟 지분을 약 10% 보유(사실상 경제적 지분 포함)하며 장기 보유 관점. 최근 실적은 다소 실망스럽다고 평가했으나 월 단위·분기 단위 실적보다 장기 현금흐름이 중요하다고 주장. [투자 철학] - 금리·유가 등 거시 변수에 베팅하기보다 안정적이고 낮은 레버리지의 개별 기업을 할인가에 매수하는 방식 선호. - 특정 섹터보다 개별 기업 이해를 중시. [출연자 관계 및 기타] - 두 사람은 약 12년 전부터 알고 지낸 사이. 데이비드 아인혼은 애크먼의 마케팅 자문 역할.
다듬은 글
activist investors facing Perpetual challenges convincing regulators and shareholders to face the facts uh we've got an expert on that subject with us an exclusive uh with hedge fund manager William Amman he's managing partner persing Square Capital Management he joins us with guest host David Einhorn and if you ever wondered uh what the business show of record is it's bringing guys like Amman on here that that that say just about every day I think you come here on squawkbox great thank you for coming on thanks for having me we've been talking about um marking to Market in the bigger sense and and we should point out you're not you make a lot of money on the long side Wendy he said he it was kind of cute because he said I just want to First just let everyone know it's at least two or three dollar long versus $1 short you're you don't want to be labeled a short seller and would you say2 or3 do long for each one short or even more long uh first few years of our existence we made no money on the short side last year was a majority of our 100% of our profits came from Short Selling so it wasn't uh Wendy's or or stirring up things in on the long side of things last year we took a break from that last year my question now is and I thought of something else David we we were wondering whether there's some smart people that say you don't need to Mark the market if you're going to hold these things to maturity there's no reason to go through all this pain and all these distress sales with some of these companies if you just let things let things go and I came up with a 30-year Bond because I have to think slowly I was a stock broker I remember when rates went up that Bond was worth half as much but that's not coming do for 30 years what if it's a 5-year piece of paper do you really need to mark that to Market to be fair for a company uh sure I think I Goldman saxs is probably the best example of this but Goldman sachs's Risk Management as far as I understand it comes from the fact that they very in a very disciplined way Mark to Market on a daily if something's coming to in a year thr Market tomor minutes a minute the trader says I can't get a mark for this Lloyd blank fine says okay fine sell 10% of it that's your mark and I think that kind of discipline has helped Goldman Sachs avoid very significant losses no matter how IL liquid something is I mean you you can't Mark limited Partnerships Mark to Market can you sure you can you try to sell some try and sell 10% so any the most esoteric derivative can be Mark to Market on a daily Bas I think the more esoteric it is you have to give some information on how you're calculating that Mark to Market and I think you might want to give a range well that that then that's a problem then we still have a lot of work to do with financials at this point uh probably how how far J Jamie Diamond says we're 75 8085 % done cleaning up this mess I mean maybe JP Morgan is I don't know about I mean AIG you know not that long ago said pretty close to being done um the problem is that when you've got a structure like a CD where the underlying Assets in some cases are cdos and then underlying them are asset back securitizations and then underlying them are mortgages you know I think Buffett's you know made the comment that to understand a CDO you got to read 750,000 pages of prospectuses that's one CDO it's a little difficult to figure out uh how do they things just on models that uh may or may not be accurate I think so let me go back to I don't know if you saw a segment where we were talking about whether short sellers are scum or whether they're uh just investors and we decided that they were just investors on the Longs side and if you come in hype a stock you come and say wow what a you know you you remember some of these great story stocks of the past they've got technology Alchemist whatever the cold fusion however you want to look at if you touted long is it any different than trashing it short I think you know I was actually before I came on the show I was thinking uh about short selling generally you know maybe good advice to give a investor when should you listen to a short seller versus versus otherwise and I think you know if you go on a message board and there's some Anonymous Guy saying this company's a garbage that's not good enough information but if someone gets up in front of uh someone gets up in front of a thousand people makes a 20-minute presentation you should pay attention to that okay so we understand it works with Enron I got to keep going though then someone uh gets up in front of an audience and then after doing so uh gets investigated for doing so yeah still stay short you should pay attention and then if that person writes a book and commits to give away 100% of the profits you really should pay attention well then we're going to have we're going to be watching Al today then because then it's going to be uh because we've got we're certainly highlighting that um this morning the other the other point I was getting through what about like a be Sterns or a Leman where I mean was did be Sterns need to to be sold at $2 a share or was that and did Leman need to come close weren't some of those scarless untrue uh rumors that had been circulated by short Sal uh I don't know what rumors were circulated by short sellers but I think be Sterns came quite close to going out and I think had it not been rescued by JP Morgan unfortunately at the expense of of shareholders I mean you know one of the issues be Sterns you perhaps be Sterns could have been a little more disciplined about marking to Market and thinking about but we heard it it wasn't a it was a liquidity uh problem not a solvency problem right $2 is pretty close to uh to insolvency and when you're when you got a $400 billion balance sheet uh Rel Equity is 3% of your Capital very small changes in the value of your assets wipe out you know difference between solvency and insolvency well I just want to get from both of you how how well do you two know each other how how long have you uh known of each other and how long have you been friends I don't know about 12 12 years or so long time how did you first get to know each other I think uh we met on a subway platform seriously you're joking no it's true I mean the nicest people on subway platforms knowing who each other was or just met blindly actually we we were at a uh a lunch and we were both there we left and I happened to uh be engaged on the so platform do do you two have very similar thoughts about how how you go out and and and deal with Wall Street I I don't I think we have um look I mean Bill's a phenomenal investor and I think though he has some different philosophies than I do and um he constructs his portfolio very differently than I do and uh his his returns are are absolutely extraordinary it shows there's a lot of different ways to to go about things but he's a he's a fabulous investor David's my marketing adviser there I'm his book publicist are you going to make 100% of your profits this year by going short as well uh it's possible but I think we'll make more money in the long side this year you can you tell me the question can I ask why yeah uh I think it's more difficult to be short in 2008 than it was in 200 because the markets are going to you we were able the way that we've been short principally has been buying credit default swaps which are these insurance policies and companies defaulting and in 2007 you basically could buy insurance on a company defaulting and pay almost nothing right your downside was very very small you Paulson you know made a Fortune This Way basically uh taking on a bet where the downside was very small you lose a couple c% of his portfolio and the upside he make 10 times well then that sound portfolio that sounds like it backs up what Jamie Diamond said that maybe we're 85% through the credit crunch maybe those opportunities are harder to come by I think those opportunities are harder to come by what about the people that would have made money if be Stern's defaulted should they be unhappy no no I think they they got me they they bought they put the the money out for the credit defaults and they never got paid off though I think that's the risk you take that someone's going to come in and totally change the games and of of the absolutely I mean you know the problem with I think if you were 100% short seller you you'd only want the world to come to an end I mean what's good about being a long short is that you can still be you you want good things to happen for America and uh not not be concerned in what areas are you long yeah we want to find out things that you're doing before you're going to do them and unfortunately those are the things that my that we told you that we couldn't talk about us you said we could ask anything but you get to decide what you there's no yeah that's fair you can ask me whatever you want which things you definitely not want to to ask you about today it's an excellent question even I don't know those are the ideas I'm looking I want to know the things that would really get you to go well I'm not going anywhere near that please try all right how about MBA we are on that Del light is the chat about all right so where what's your position now we actually don't comment on precise uh what we're long or what we're short we but we are still short MBA and we we still have the same views I mean MBI is announcing earnings on Monday you I encourage you to pay attention um I think it will be quite an interesting conference call uh you know we've historically not been allowed to be on the NB conference call one of the things I think you should look for is a sign for companies that you don't want to own or when they don't allow when they restrict the people that go on the call that was where my last question came from you're find out which companies you can't be on the conference call I want to know which questions you definitely won't answer um you know what I'm going to do I'm going to put out a list of questions publicly and I'll be happy to send it to CNBC questions you would have for NB confence on the conference call and i' I'd be delighted for you to ask them on there and I think that would be a very good way to do it overall do do you do you ever think tops down um what we do is we look for businesses where we think they're not likely to be materially affected by extrinsic facts you know interest rates go up up or down a couple hundred basis points of oil prices go up $25 uh a barrel uh we try to find very robust stable businesses generally very modestly levered and as a result we don't need to think particular top down we don't need to think about exactly where interest rates are going to be for us to do well and then we look for a big discount if we can buy something for 50 cents in the dollar yes Target is going to be weaker in a difficult economic environment Where Are You On Target now we're a a big believer your latest filing was was where latest filing we own just under 10% of the company in terms of beneficial ownership and more than that you know economic ownership so we're big Believers and we're a 13d filer if that were to change we'd have to file yesterday Target was was a little disappointing especially when you look look at what Walmart did there are a lot of people who think Walmart is getting the upper hand on target after a long time of playing second fiddle uh I think that uh we don't think really month to month or quarter to quarter I mean the value of a business is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over 50 years uh you know the next year is worth more in that calculation than a year 50 year out but one of the things I find interesting about retail stocks for example is that no one wants to own retail stocks if we in a recession going into recession but if you if a business is worth the present value of the cash you take got over 50 years you're going to have seven recessions why does it really matter you know you should think more about what you're paying versus what the business is worth as opposed to what you're paying versus what they're going to earn next quarter those parameters you gave us for what what makes an attractive investment are there even though you don't do top down are there sectors that that offer that that that uh you don't have to mention names but are there sectors that offer that type of uh criteria we're less of a sector Focus we focus on things on individual companies things we can understand I mean I think that's the the important uh
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