저자: Kevin · 외국인
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이란 전쟁 확대로 유가·금리 상승 및 경기침체 리스크가 커졌지만, 지정학 리스크는 역사적으로 저점매수 기회였고 은행 자본규제 완화(약 2000억 달러 유입)와 미 고용지표(4/3) 반등 시 긍정적 전환 가능성을 언급. 다만 현재 뉴스 흐름은 약세이며 4/3 고용지표 전후까지 인내를 권고. 호르무즈 재개방 성공 시 강세 촉매로 봄.
다듬은 글
There are some reasons to be bullish about what's going on in the economy and potentially the stock market. In this video, we're going to break down a timeframe for when the most ideal time to buy the dip might be and should the dip be bought at all. But first, we have to understand what's going on in Iran because there are some things developing that could be really good, though others argue could be bad.
And so, I think the best way to break this down is just lay it all on the table. So, let's get right into it. So, first, Donald Trump said last night that he had no knowledge of the South Pars attack that the Israelis conducted on the gas field. The Israelis said, "Okay, we won't do it again without working with the United States." Although, the Israelis also said that they coordinated the strike with the United States.
So, maybe they coordinated with part of the United States and Donald Trump is pretending he didn't know about it or maybe he truly didn't know about it, but whatever. Iran's like, "Hey, our bite is stronger. We can attack even more of your infrastructure. In fact, we held back yesterday after that attack on Qatar.
We could have done more because, you know, y'all are saying you want to de-escalate." Now, this could be like a little Chihuahua saying their bite is actually stronger than it really is, but what's bearish is we woke up this morning to hear that Samraf, an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, which is on the Red Sea side, so Persian Gulf here and then all the way on the other side, the Red Sea side, you know, above Yemen, where the Houthis like disrupting shipping lines, that refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked by Iran.
And then now, just about 8 minutes ago, we started seeing reports that the Haifa oil refinery in Israel was potentially struck. And this just minutes ago, reports of a big fire underway at this refining complex, uh potentially due to a ballistic missile, which, you know, these things sound escalatory.
That's not good. So, we have this talk that on one hand, Trump and the Iranians are saying, "Okay, okay, we're not going to target infrastructure anymore." And then Semerak gets attacked that attacked this morning, and now the Haifa oil refinery is attacked in northern Israel, which supplies 60% of Israelis Israel's diesel and 50% of Israel's gasoline.
So, this is sort of a very important refining facility for Israel's economy. So, we're we're kind of at like, okay, we we're hearing words that are good, but actions also speak louder than words. And so, this isn't good. It kind of counters some of the optimism, which isn't good, right? Now, Iran, again, says there will be zero restraint if our infrastructure is stuck struck again.
And any end to this war must address the damage that was conducted to our civilian sites. That's what Iran has said. Now, some people are reading that and saying, "Okay, what if the US doesn't strike the infrastructure again? What if we just take the infrastructure?" Now, this is a really interesting potential argument.
And this has to do with the US Marines potentially going to secure an island off the coast of, well, Iran. Now, this is from a Wall Street Journal suggestion. The Wall Street Journal has a pretty big article on this. And what they suggest is that the 2,200 Marines and then about the 2,500 sailors that, you know, are in route or on route over to the Middle East right now and to this straight, could end up being used to control the Strait of Hormuz.
And potentially what we might do with our Marines is we might end up taking one of these islands. And so, the Wall Street Journal breaks down and suggests that there are these various different islands, whether it's Khark Island, Kish Island, Qeshm Island, or Hormuz Island. It's literally an island called Hormuz Island, which is right in the Strait of Hormuz.
But anyway, maybe these could be utilized uh as a way to stage US troops to counter attack any kind of Iranian assaults against the strait itself. Now, The Economist says there's a really big downside risk of taking an island here. If we end up taking one of these islands, such as uh Hormuz Island here, which has Rainbow Valley.
You can see I recently viewed Rainbow Valley. It didn't look very rainbowish to me. It also has a Portuguese castle, which looks like a pile of turd. They also have a salt goddess, which is not the blonde I was expecting. Uh and then they have a saffron valley, which that's kind of cool. That one's almost got a five-star review, by the way.
And then they've even got a turtle cliff over here, which didn't really look like it had a lot of turtles. Uh and then there's Red Beach over here, which that actually did look really cool. But anyway, taking this mountainous island over here under uh Bandar Abbas could be an opportunity for our amphibious assault units, which are on the way from Japan.
They're expected to arrive at the end of next week. So, potentially Friday, Saturday, Sunday, so somewhere in that range. They could potentially arrive in this area and take one of these islands and use it to help secure the strait by counter attacking any kind of Iranian attacks from this coastline.
We are currently using uh A-10s and uh Apache helicopters, uh as well as dropping 5,000-lb bombs along the southern flank, uh per the Department of War update today, uh to try to minimize some of the opportunities for for to launch strikes into the Strait. Obviously, securing the Strait is a really important tool for leverage.
Iran's scorched earth mentality is, "Hey, if we can cause a recession in the global economy, we can show the rest of the world this is what happens when you attack Iran. If you mess with Iran, you guys will end up in a recession. Don't do it." Now, there's also talk by the Wall Street Journal that we could potentially take Kharg Island, which is somewhere over here.
Uh anyway, here, you know what? Let me cheat. Uh I will cheat and just go to my little map over here. There we go. Uh Kharg Island. Oh, yeah, yeah, it's up here under the uh Bushehr Port. Anyway, oh, so maybe that was this. Anyway, uh yes, see here it's labeled Kharg. Is this it? Yeah, yeah, this is it.
This is it. Yeah, there it is, translated in English, Kharg. It's just they call it Kharg. Okay, you threw me for a loop there with the spelling. But anyway, here's the oil uh refining uh or sorry, the uh oil storage infrastructure. What's really fascinating about this storage infrastructure is The Wall Street Journal says Marines could also potentially take this and use it as leverage.
If you take this, you not only control these ports, which are heavily utilized for oil exports from Iran, not only the storage, which can get piped here, but then the exports by loading it up onto uh oil ships over here, but it also has an airfield. So, this is a very uh desirable island to take. It's just not as useful because it's not as close to the Strait by any means.
And getting over there is is also going to be a little bit challenging. But, it could be done. Wall Street Journal suggests taking this could be then used as a negotiation ploy to try to end this war with Iran. Now, the problem is the foreign minister of Iran says that any claims of negotiations or truces are just delusional, and that the IRGC is a 150,000 strong force of military, you know, mosaic style leadership forces that are capable of launching their own drones and missiles whenever they want without centralized leadership.
This is why they can keep striking even though we've taken out some of their leaders. You know, we were talking about this yesterday how their strikes are actually ramping up. I'll pull up the sheet again just so you could see it. I pulled the sheet yesterday evening. This this is potentially because of the mosaic style of leadership that Iran has where they have this opportunity to launch from multiple different regions under localized command rather than relying on centralized command.
There's no like single commander-in-chief so to speak. They can decide to launch and strike their enemies as they'd like, which then also makes, you know, listening to the verbal commentary that, all right, if you don't strike our infrastructure, we won't strike yours, kind of loony because under a mosaic style leadership, they could just sort of do what they want.
It's just problematic for negotiating with them and I think Israel realizes this, which is why Israel wants to go for full regime change. But Iran knows this and this is why Iran implies that they're ready to go for a year. Israel says they're ready to go for as long as necessary and the problem with all this is Iran knows the longer this war goes on, the higher oil prices go, the higher oil prices go, the more the stock market goes down, the more interest rates go up, the more yields bear steepen, which pisses off Donald Trump because it means the bond market now puts more pressure on private credit, which are the same funds that are begging Trump to get money from 401Ks to bail them out.
So everything hurts the longer this war goes on and Iran's probably smart in that they realize that. Like, I mean, they could listen to really any, you know, financial pundit. I mean, who knows? I guess they could listen to me, Kevin, as well and and and and recognize that the longer this goes on, the more people estimate we are going to be in a recession.
Now, the European Central Bank did make an argument earlier today that if this war extends for a period of time, there are two potential scenarios. There's an adverse scenario where inflation really rises unfortunately to about 4.4% on a headline in 2026. However, there's also a severe scenario where under the severe scenario, we end up in a recession in the second and third quarter in Europe in 2026 and inflation actually continues to rise all the way up to 6.3% in the first quarter of 2027.
Which is odd because we usually we think of recessions as deflationary, but if oil prices skyrocket because the war keeps going on, you can see markets are going to be panicked. European Central Bank is going to be panicked. ECB warns that a recession is possible and then of course the recession becomes possible in the United States as well.
Goldman Sachs says it's going to take $150 per barrel oil to see a recession in the United States. The Wall Street Journal interviewed 50 economists. They argue it might only take $138 to indicate a recession in the United States. Although recession risk so far only at 32%, so maybe that's not necessarily bad yet.
But then again, markets are mostly pricing in a short-term recession here. So, like where's the bullishness in all of this because so far a lot of this is pretty bearish. In fact, if you look at copper prices, copper prices are now negative year-to-date. Copper prices are often a leading indicator that there could be underlying economic problems that are forming.
All of these are issues. So, what potentially is bullish? Because even Christine Lagarde came out this morning and says, "We have no idea how long this is going to take. The longer it goes on, the worse this gets. We're starting from a good place, but a major shock is unfolding. The longer this goes on, the worse it gets.
Again, everybody's saying it's not a secret, and frankly, Iran realizes this. So, what are the potential reasons to be bullish, and what are the time frames to be bullish? Well, in my opinion, there are a few. First, historically, geopolitical issues are usually a buy the dip. In fact, they've almost always been a buy the dip opportunity.
If you look through history, whether it was 9/11, Russia-Ukraine, whatever, uh geopo- Desert Storm, geopolitical issues are almost always a buy the dip. You buy the dip because there's panic in the short term, and then as things chill out, or people get sort of used to, or find different ways to rejigger supply chains, the markets go up.
Now, that's one take. Now, a second thing is that there's a lot of money that's potentially going to flow into the banking sector soon. We're expecting potentially $200 billion of money to flow into the banking sector through looser capital rules for banks. Now, that could lead banks like JP Morgan to issue significant buybacks because their stocks have fallen quite a chunk recently because of fears of private credit exposure.
You could see as CJPY Morgan had this rising wedge, which typically forestalls a fall, or a decline in in in stock price, which is exactly what happened here. And uh JP Morgan, City, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America will probably be the biggest beneficiaries of this. But, $200 billion could be used not only for buying back their own stock, but they could also use it to lend.
And lending is good because it it usually generates GDP growth, usually. That's why seeing a bear steepener, where yields are going up, two-year yield is skyrocketing, the 10-year yield is skyrocketing, that hurts private credit because it constricts lending, and it constricts uh financial conditions.
Tightening financial conditions are not great for economic growth, investment, GDP growth, whatever. So, looser capital requirements, bullish stimulus. Geopolitical, usually buy the dip. The amphibious Marine Group showing up late next week to hopefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz does create risk for more American lives being lost as we expect Iran will fight hard to maintain control of the Strait.
We've already lost 13 Americans. But, if we are successful, which I will not underestimate our Marines, which I expect we will be successful at reopening the Hormuz Strait of Hormuz with our Marines. If we're able to do that, that is going to be a very bullish catalyst for markets. Bullish catalyst.
Now, at the same time, we're going to be prepping for the April 3rd jobs report, which hopefully shows a rebound from the February pain as we get revisions for February, revisions for January, and we get March data. So, we're basically going to get three data sets, the revision for Jan, Feb, and then the initial March data.
That comes out on April 3rd, which means not necessarily next week, but the week after next week is going to be really desirable or potentially interesting for markets. So, that time frame between March 30th to April 3rd, that could be when we see the Strait reopen on a bullish outlook. That could be when the Marines, you know, are able to take control of what they're able to take care of.
Hopefully, Iran doesn't retaliate against, let's say, that's the economist's fear is that if we take Kharg Island that, you know, Iran goes scorched earth even more so than they already have. Hopefully, the war chills out by then and hopefully we get a good jobs report. And then geopolitics will prove to be a buy the dip.
Because well, frankly, the war will start relaxing. We'll get positive jobs data, hopefully. And everything can just chill. Some of this panic can chillax. A lot of that, unfortunately though, is hopium. So, while those are reasons to be bullish, they're probably more reasons to be optimistic. Because obviously we have to balance this with the fact that Kuwait's petrol company just suspended operations after their attacks.
Qatar's energy CEO, uh Qatar Energy, CEO of that company called Qatar Energy, they say they're going to lose $20 billion in ARR due to the attacks against Qatar yesterday. Uh and they are going to potentially have to declare force majeure on some of their liquefied petroleum, their condensate oil, which is basically used for gasoline, their uh mixtures for plastics, helium, which is important in chip manufacturing.
They think they're going to lose $20 billion in ARR, and they think it's going to take as long as 3 to 5 years to rebuild the damage that Iran conducted just on yesterday's strike. Now, Pete Hegseth is asking Congress for $200 billion to keep this war going. And Tulsi Gabbard mentioned this morning that Trump and Israel have differing goals.
And that this time is different. Pete Hegseth says that Iran cannot be trusted to end their nuclear program, and we will finish this, and there's no time frame for ending this conflict. None of that sounds bullish, like this is going to be short-term. That all sounds like, well, $200 billion, and of course, we will finish this, and Iran can't be trusted.
None of that sounds good. We've now struck 7,000 targets uh in Iran, which is up from the previous estimates by a lot. Uh and these expectations that our amphibious units are just 1 week away do also create the risk of more retaliation from Iran. Now, Scott Bassette from the Treasury Department potentially argues that we should just lift sanctions on Iran to relieve pressure on oil prices for Iranian oil already at sea.
This seems really backwards. Because if you're trying to punish Iran, why are you going to lift sanctions on Iran to increase the profit on the oil that they could collect? Just so you could temporarily push down oil prices in the broader market. It seems like you're shooting yourself in the foot, but then again, this administration does things like that.
Sometimes without logic. At the same time, I just got an update that Iran has indeed now claimed responsibility for targeting the Haifa oil refineries. Which is also bearish. Because literally 2 hours ago Israel's like, "All right, we won't attack infrastructure again." And then Iran's like, "All right, we we restrained ourselves." And then 2 hours later, "We bombed your refining plant, Israel.
What do you think Israel's going to do now?" Now Israel's probably going to go, "Hey America, they just bombed ours. Now we got to bomb theirs." And the tit-for-tat keeps going. It's not the kind of tit we usually like talking about on the channel. Unfortunately Donald Trump has argued that if Iran ends up striking more oil and natural gas infrastructure, which they literally just did.
Donald Trump says he will completely eradicate Kharg Island. That would devastate global supply chains because a lot of oil comes from here. This would be devastating for the for for oil. We will probably see $150 per barrel uh oil if this is done. And it is exactly what Donald Trump threatened. Donald Trump in a Truth Social post last night said, "The Israelis, they did something without my knowledge, even though they said they coordinated with the United States.
And they're going to stop. And as long as Iran doesn't hit any of our infrastructure again, we won't go to the level of destroying Kharg Island. Well, they literally just did. Iranian missile targeted Haifa oil refineries. Iran's news agency said. Now factored in or factored in. Not great. So, what's the escalation and response going to be?
And what does this mean for timeframe? Well, in my opinion, I think the best timeframe is patience over the next week. Let's get to the arrival of the amphibious units. Maybe even wait to getting to that jobs data. Pricing might be a little bit more expensive by the time we get to April 3rd. Uh because maybe things start rebounding, right?
But I think a safer way to hedge on buying the dip is just wait for April 3rd. April 3rd at 5:30 in the morning. By then, we're going to know. Did our amphibious groups take control of anything? Did Donald Trump eradicate Kharg Island? Probably not. Uh Have there been more strikes on oil and natural gas infrastructure?
Is our jobs economy truly falling off a cliff or was February just a one-off? As long as we get a positive jobs report there and things chill out with these strikes on infrastructure, which as it's happening right now, it doesn't seem like they are. That's probably the better time to decide, okay, time to be bullish.
Because right now, a lot of the news, even though we're trying to say there are some reasons to be bullish, a lot of the news that's actually unfolding is just actually bearish. But that is what happens during geopolitical crises. So, with all of that said, I wish you the best of luck on what the hell is going on, cuz this suck.
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