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happy Saturday guys where we don't just explore the cryptocurrency markets but we look at the broader landscape of things and that' we have a lot to get through um we are going to be replaying a clip that we played earlier this week of Larry think essentially forecasting um no soft hard or or or anything in between kind of a landing until 2025 now this really aligns with our overall thoughts on things um and maybe there's something to be had here in regards to the stock market and what it's currently doing you know we have been highlighting that the stock market certainly with the earnings that have been going on is of real concern um and we've been looking at this sort of broad category of risk and what and and relating it to the dollar and saying that the dollars a real tied um against risk um and we need to see a turning of that and thus uh the correlation the inverse correlation for things like the stock market we're seeing it for gold um and Bitcoin right now but even things like bonds really for me uh and housing because I think the further these go certainly the bond market and housing The more stress there is on everything and a factoid that we've got for you guys is that the S&P will rally within 2% of its high two months prior to a recession so I.E it will only start to PR price in a recession historically two months before um one's you know announced a essentially and are we there yet you know is a recession two months away it's why we're going to be bringing in Larry think um so quite a bit to look at there and then we are going to be looking at a number of things you had uh JP Morgan chases Jamie Diamond looking to actually sell some of his stocks for the first time in 20 years now this is this just because you know he's not sold anything in 20 years and he's looking to get out or is he forecasting a storm coming later on down the line and we know a storm is coming fundamentally where we disagree with the Bears um and we may be wrong I think you know we've been quite good on The View so far is it's just a timing thing you know we don't think that the hits the found this Mega 2008 s crash or whatever it may be uh occurs until later on um we don't think that that's going to happen imminently and I think the markets have have kind of shown that and rallied against and climbed this wall of w worry and and we continue to think that that's going to be the case you know we also had Larry fins uh CEO selling 7% of his stake earlier this year and of course this tweet really does ring in my ears from Bill akman somebody who I greatly respect bill akman is very very good at what he does I don't think you know it's no credit to him me saying that you know he's been uh touted that by far greater minds than myself um but this is the fact that he's covering his bond short means that he's expecting bonds to get a bid why do bonds get a bid is that in line with our kind of dollar going down risk getting a little bit of a bid broadly or is that because hits the fan and bonds get a bid as a safety trade as they usually do in a recession and then we're going to look at a number of things there are rumors circulating this is from uh Bitcoin lfgo always be careful what you find on Twitter guys essentially saying that black rock the world's lest asset manager has informed the SEC that it will purchase Bitcoin to fund its btcf in October in preparation for its approval not sure how um accurate this is however Black Rock will be buying spot Bitcoin to back there spot Bitcoin ETF you know and and so will the others it's it's going to be a real race and and potentially this is going to factor in to why Bitcoin is doing well and actually part of being a technical analyzer is looking at the markets from a lot of different angles and we do have higher targets for Bitcoin against the stock market this is something that we had said had broken out Bitcoin against the um NASDAQ and even Bitcoin against gold um um and and Bitcoin has been doing very well but so has gold so we have as always a hell of a lot to cover um let's get into it and let's start off really with the most pressing matter which for me is the stock market and we're going to use the S&P as a barometer for the entire US Stock Market you know um it's not looking great is it however we never really came back and had a proper retest of where we broke out from so for me moving forwards it's make or break for the stock market what's going to happen with the stock market is largely going to be correlated with the dollar and this basket of risk um having now a risk on period if that makes sense so we had speculated a risk on period based on to move on to the dollar now this weekly candle here uh after a big uptrend you know it kind of looked quite likely that perhaps the dollar was going to top out and it made a little bit of progress more so gold and Bitcoin made progress against it but it's still showing a lot of strength an uneasy amount of strength you know you had good GDP for the US people just simply don't believe that that can be the case with high interest rates however we've shown the historic context of high interest rates and that they've always led to markets going higher up until a crash the crash the markets will usually go on in a in a tightening cycle to put in a new high and then there'll be a lagged effect of those rates that will cause a crash later on this is the thesis that we are working on and we're going to bring in Larry thinkink in just a second um so is this going to turn I I'm still uncertain guys I have to be 180% honest and say look it's going to be a case of us seeing it in the charts before I say okay yeah this is now turning um it it's possible that it's going to turn and that turning is going to be it started off quite positive for risk um but with its kind of strengthening decision it's kind of been a bit negative let's not start by putting the S&P in a nice Bitcoin Orange Let's Start by putting xrp we don't want xrp we want Bitcoin we want the stock market we want housing we want uh bonds typical correlation with bonds as they go up with the equity Market due to what's behind it and we want gold so you can see this kind of inflection point for risk and that's correlated with the dollar and we we kind of right on it however certainly not for um the housing market which is very interest rate sensitive and uh bonds which simply don't you know aren't aren't getting a bid as of yet however Bill akman looking to cover his shorts meaning he's expecting you know them to go up essentially or or at least a danger of that the S&P however did initially get this rally based on when we were speculating but has then gone on to put in a low from the previous um likely driven by earnings but is there a canary here in regards to the fact that a recession could be two months away and the the S&P will start to sort of price that in two months prior and it could have put in its high now my overall thesis is still that that's not the case um I think that if Larry think and we're going to move on to his comment now is right and our homework is right on rates and the markets and the lag of effects then a recession isn't going to actually come until later on uh and I know people can say oh well based on this Tik tocker crying about the price of living whilst going out to eat three times a week um that a recession is already here it's simply not the case from a um data point of view and we know that the feds full of um and that their data isn't you know it's manipulated of course we know this Welcome to the Real World guys um you know no no nobody's arguing that fact but certainly from a face value if you can take them at that you know the econom is actually labor market GDP showing a lot of strength which is in line with our sort of views of things and why we think the markets are going to go higher so the stock market for me really needs to turn around that's going to have to happen in my opinion on the backdrop of risk uh being on and the dollar coming down so it's all very pivotal around the dollar um there's a lot going on in terms of data so I think they are looking at no hike in November but potentially one in in December uh but we'll see most central banks have now stopped I think this is to do with the pressures on the bond market you know they they they understand what's going to happen they've already seen one bailout they will do bailouts again and maybe that's why Bill amman's covering his bond shot because he thinks we're at that level where where the shit's going to hit the fan and if you do get that risk on period you know there could be a correlation here with them printing dollar down you can see how we we we're we're forward stepping um and speculating on on on a on a series of events that could could lead to risk on so what I want to do now is move into the clip think and then we're going to wrap things up with a number of things Bitcoin and crypto specific of course this is very applicable to crypto because it's the broader markets and we dance with them I had a comment on on yesterday's video saying crypto isn't showing us risk on um well crypto is not in charge of risk on risk off if you look at the kind of pyramid of assets um and and the hierarchy of the food chain if you will bombs are right over the top you know then you've got a multitude of derivatives probably housing then you've got equities then you've got you know uh probably metals and then crypto is it's it's the plon at the bottom that you know is is kind of the base of the pyramid so let's go into this clipar think here what he has to say uh relay that about the S&P in the stock market and then jump back into crypto and round it all off and look at is Black Rock buying or going to be buying um uh Bitcoin we've had a government I'm talking about the US now that in 2000 been an $8 trillion deficit and today we have a $33 trillion deficit so the deficit is grown by more than a trillion dollars each year over the last 23 years that is highly inflationary the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve um is highly inflationary and so all these different measures um are much more structural much more difficult so as a result of that interest rates are going to remain higher opportunities for investors are going to be able to be very patient um you could do nothing and enjoy a positive return all right so are you expecting a hard Landing or a soft Landing in the United States or you just can't project I would I do not we will not see a hard roft Landing in 2024 um the amount of fiscal stimulus that is just entering the economy which is very inflationary the chips act the IRA and the infrastructure acted about $970 billion the largest peacetime non uh pandemic moment of fiscal stimulus at the same time our Central Bank is trying to arrest the economy and and and so that's that that's just hitting the J curve uh and and you see um in labor settlements right now what's going on and labor talk 20 25% increases in wages so I I don't see a problem but I do believe the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise rates higher which probably will mean by 25 we may have a soft we may have a hard Landing that is the only way I see how we're going to be arresting this but I don't expect it uh any anytime soon I think the power of the economy the power of the consumer that Jamie about a lot um is giving me Comfort that the economy is fine interesting the economy is fine I think we know that there's definitely issues and and we we're heading into something that is far from fine but as of right now I I think uh I agree with Larry think um let's look at the comments or or or potentially um what's now floating around the place in regards to Black Rock who we know are in the running for um an ETF potentially buying Bitcoin be careful institutions are not your friends black rock is not your friend it it's got to where it's got to by being Cutthroat this is how the world works unfortunately um we've not seen anything official of this although we do know that it is coming the fact that they are going to have to buy Bitcoin like all the other ETFs and actually this could coincide with why Bitcoin and crypto could actually do quite well despite everything um certainly outperform the likes of the Spy which we have been one of the only people to highlight you know this is going higher in our opinion just very quickly to give you a target of where rough Target you know this still has a bit to go um if you look at it against although I wouldn't necessarily say there's a head and shoulders here uh inverse head and shoulders just like we got on and what we've been technically using to predict higher prices for Bitcoin you know this has still got a bit higher to go gold is the interesting one um depends where you want to take this from but you know they're still quite a bit higher to go for gold and actually it aligns with you know what we've been looking at just to really quickly eye this add that here in regards to to to bitcoin's price action what's been keeping us on the long side so it could be ETF backed and driven and this could actually be something that plays out um let's see what happens next week you know the the Market's opening certainly the Futures Market is going to be interesting the stock market it's hard for me to say that it's not going to I mean could you classify this as a crash you kind of could I mean this is this is nothing short of brutal um but is this just going to turn out to be a retest are you going to get a bid here you need to see it right now this is cost for concern for me um and we need to see what the week ahead turns um and really we need to see the dollar be weak um and we need to see a bit across the board all doing very well gold in my opinion is just in a in a bull flag you know this is going to 3,000 plus if you look at actually historically I'm not sure what I was drawing here uh with rates you can see this we we were looking at this actually something similar for Bitcoin then gold actually done really well under the backdrop of rates over the past two times maybe bitcoin's catching up to that a little bit um you know and actually Bitcoin setting up something similar to Gold but it could pop out the top people are going to be way too bearish it's it's a I'm seeing a lot of aggression in regards to uh Revenge trading going on right now wrecked shorts I mean it's been brutal for the Bears to be quite honest but they you know at the end of the day and I hate even saying Bears balls because it it creates this opposition um we're all trying to guess and work out and speculate on what way we think the markets are going bear or bull it's not the easiest thing to do um and and we've been wrong many many times we'll be wrong again really what's more important for me is the fact that I make money off of the markets and uh you know this is not Financial advice but but hopefully the people that listen to the channel and certainly in my patreon have uh uh an edge or a better understanding of things moving forward that's what's really important to me in regards to you know being right or wrong and gloating about it publicly I really do care more so about making money if I'm being honest guys um so we'll see what Happ s we'll see what the week ahead brings is there some Alpha here in regards to this correlating with bit with the week ahead and how it may turn in the dollar rolling we'll see this would probably support dollar rolling um yeah if you guys want to jump on a meeting with me on Sunday I will be doing one with my patreons as we do every single Sunday where we go through everything um and we look at our positions etc etc um the offer's open on that note guys I'm going to love and leave you if you've enjoyed the content like is appreciate so as a comment lots of things to watch out for in the week ahead you've got the broad picture you've got the smaller and everything in between so all I've got for you guys thanks for watching I'll catch you in the next one
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