저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 세미트럭 양산 임박과 캘리포니아 보조금(대당 약 12만달러)을 근거로 실적 상향을 전망. 2030년 세미 영업이익 35억달러 가정 시 목표주가 약 589달러, Optimus·FSD 반영 시 672달러 제시. 다만 현재 주가는 2026년 EPS 기준 PEG가 높아 고평가로 평가하고, 마진 회복이 핵심 변수라고 언급. 기술적으로 340대 부근 바닥 형성 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Well, the Tesla Semi is getting closer and closer, and its mass production is expected soon. In this segment, we will analyze how this actually affects Tesla's stock price target. Tesla shares rose 4% today on the news. And I must say that a lot of interesting things are happening. Images are now emerging of a Tesla Semi truck testing with lidar racks, which is one of the early stages of FSD validation for this type of body.
It's worth noting that Elon told us that full autonomous driving isn't the highest priority for the Semi right now, and that Tesla has a lot of other things going on, including the launch of the Cybercab, which, you know, is expected in the next few weeks; but we know that in the long term, probably when they go into mass production and sales, FSD will become critically important.
Personally, I am a big fan of full autonomous driving. I believe that every car should have full autonomous control, like Tesla. I can't stand it when I get into a car without full autonomous control. I do n't even care anymore if the car is fast or if it has powerful acceleration. Like my Cyberbeast is standing outside .
I have a Model S Plaid, and I also have a Model X, although it's the 75 version, so it's not as fast as the others. Still pretty good, you know. The Model X appears to accelerate to 60 mph in 2.9 seconds. The Model S—1.9 seconds including coasting , and the Cyberbeast, I think, 2.5 seconds to 60. So I have three Teslas with tremendous speed and torque.
We almost never step on the gas because we use FSD all the time. You turn on FSD—and who cares, you know? Honestly, I even put it on " chill" mode, which is quite strange. It seems like the opposite of my character, you know? I kind of want to be a jet pilot , right? Full forward, baby. But with FSD I don't do that.
I like those Cybercabs in the parking lot. Looks pretty cool. Whoever made this video did a great job. This is actually very exciting. But the presence of these racks suggests that at least there is a team working on implementing FSD for Semi trucks. And now the most interesting thing is that this could have a significant positive impact on Tesla shares.
We will do the calculations and evaluate it. But the most important thing we need to talk about first is how California can help drive big sales of these cars in the same way we've seen incentives for solar and batteries. Tesla Semi trucks are expected to sell for between $240,000 and $300,000 per unit.
Actually, from 260 to 300,000. Two options are expected . So, a base model with a 300-mile range and a long-range model for $300,000. That's about twice as much as what many companies pay for regular trucks. But California is estimated to provide about $120,000 in incentives per vehicle, effectively covering the entire additional cost of the electric version, which the state of California bears.
So, it would be quite logical to “seed” the state of California, along the I5 or 101 routes, with charging stations for the Tesla Semi, most likely on the I5, and increase sales in California by a margin of about 20–25%. And we'll play with the margin to see how that might affect the stock. But what is striking is that these cars, if converted to FSD, will be the safest of all possible, and their cost per mile should be significantly lower than diesel cars due to servicing costs.
Anyone who owns a Tesla knows that these “swallows” practically never need maintenance, and that’s truly impressive. But let me give you some estimates right now. So, the assessments on...I wrote down some of these notes from institutional studies that I read. Expected running costs are 31 cents per mile for a Tesla electric truck versus 67 cents for a diesel one, which, when you think about it, saves you $36,000 for every 100,000 miles driven.
So let's think about how many miles we'll drive in a day? Let's say they drive eight hours a day, five days a week, right? At 60 miles per hour multiplied by five days, that's about 2,400 miles per week, including breaks and things like that. Someone else could have driven this truck for about 46 thousand miles.
That's about 110,000 miles a year. Let's just do a quick fact check and see how many miles does a truck typically drive per year? Isn't that right? So my guess is 110,000, just based on these quick calculations. Damn, people will think I watched this beforehand. I am not. I just applied some quick basic logic.
Okay. A long-haul truck typically travels 110,000 to 140,000 miles per year. Of course, fully autonomous transportation in the future could do much more, right? I literally calculated an 8-hour workday, 5 days a week, weekends off. And I didn't count the 6 weeks of vacation. So you could triple the use of these trucks if they really are fully autonomous , which is the long-term goal.
Now it's truly a robot on wheels. But every year this "little thing" saves you $36,000 in maintenance and fuel. This is very good, because in 5 years it is $180,000. You get a free truck after 5 years. Especially after Tesla's tax credits, right? 5 years of $30,000 in savings — $ 150,000. You know, 260 minus 120 thousand benefits is 140.
That's all. You paid off the truck. A long- range model may take a sixth year, no matter. This is fascinating. This is very interesting. Of course, it remains to be seen how the charging station infrastructure will develop. You know, there's still a long way to go, but for long-term investors, it's quite interesting.
And FSD will appear. I'm not worried about this. Whenever a new chassis is introduced , it takes time for the FSD to adapt. Look at the Cybertruck. When the Cybertruck first came out, it did n't have full autonomy. And many people said, "Oh my God, I paid $120,000 for a car, and I don't have FSD." Now it has appeared.
He has FSD and it's great . Really very good. I do n't even think I drive a car anymore. And I've been using autopilot since 2017 . I was one of the first Tesla fans on YouTube, if you will. But Bloomberg says Tesla could sell $36 billion worth of such cars by 2030, according to projections. Oh, sorry, $24 billion, 36,400 units by 2030.
So far, the California voucher program has only issued five vouchers out of 50. So it's very early days for trucking revenue and tax credits to work in California. California tax credits are also very complicated. There are, I would say, about three or four different components that actually make them up.
This is a voucher incentive program for zero-emission hybrid trucks and buses . A terribly complicated name. Then there is the CARB mandate, which requires 5 % of all such trucks to be zero- emission starting in 2024, gradually increasing to 40% by 2032. So, there is significant regulatory pressure to move to these zero- emission semi-trucks.
That's why they are literally pouring public capital into these vehicles, and Tesla and its shareholders could become the beneficiaries of these essentially liberal handouts. This is something like corporate socialism for a mandate for green vehicles. You know, Donald Trump did the opposite, which hurt Tesla stock, by canceling those credits.
But California says, "Oh, we'll give you more." Well, okay, California can keep racking up debt. I mean, corporate socialism, hey, you know, whatever you want. This is California, whatever you want from it . So, let's do some math. If, say, my projections for semi-truck revenue, last time I calculated operating income from them to be only one billion dollars.
This is operating income. That is, this is after, you know, the cost of goods sold. And my overall forecast for the company doesn't even include robotaxi. I look at it as just selling vehicles , you know? For example, Cybercab, let's say it's 99.9% good and they just sell it as a Model 2, you know, I do that to be conservative.
Some people say, "Oh my god, Kevin said there's no robotaxi. Okay, I'm not going to listen to him anymore. That's a loser." The point is to add a little conservatism. So obviously, if robo-taxis operate as fully autonomous, that would be fantastic. A huge success, right? We need Halo. If only that guy from Halo could come and say, " Huge success," huge success.
Anyway, semi-trucks, I projected that they would generate a billion dollars in operating revenue per year by 2030. This may be an underestimate. If they can get 24 billion in sales by 2030, they will reach a level where they can produce up to 50,000 of these cars per year. You know, if you produce 50,000 a year at a price of, say, $ 280,000 on average .
And of course they will make more money from FSD subscriptions for that too. $280,000 multiplied by 50,000 units is 14 billion in revenue. Okay, 14 billion in revenue. I'll bet on a 25% margin because the tax break will benefit Tesla, Tesla shareholders. A significant part of it. The consumer feels like they are getting a benefit, but they will almost certainly be able to get a higher margin on it thanks to the tax credit.
That is, the benefit is clearly not someone's sole economic advantage. Usually the profits are shared, but I think most of it goes to Tesla. That's $3.5 billion in operating income by 2030. This means my prediction of a billion was very low if they could potentially go to 3.5 billion. Okay, so let's get to …Where's that billion-dollar profit from Semi trucks?
Well , I won't change anything for now. So my forecast at a trading multiple of 2.25, which is still expensive, and, you know, there's definitely a bit of hope built into that valuation, gives a target price of about $555 at a billion dollars and no robotaxi, right? No robotaxi. If I, which of course ignores talk of merged data.
This is a table purely for Tesla. Uh, here it is. Oh, I guess I'll just borrow that. It's still the same number, so it doesn't matter. Good. A future value of 555 at a present value of 340 gives me a compound annual return of about 12%. With $1 billion in operating income from Semi. If I go in now and say, "No, no, no, no.
We're actually going to go a different way." So, 555 is a number. Let's keep that in mind. We will actually have operating income of $3.5 billion. Okay, keep in mind that the FSD revenue here already amounts to 2.5 billion in annual recurring revenue. So I'm not going to add more revenue from FSD for Semi trucks, because even if you charge a lot more for FSD for Semi, which you should do because it's a business, and business " roasts" other business , uh, you know, 2.5 billion—it's still the same , we have to come up from about 700 million in annual recurring revenue from FSD.
So, we still have a little more work to do, right? So, let's write down three and a half billion here. Let's update this table. So the forecast then brings us to a price of $589. So, based on three and a half billion, that gives you about a $34 premium that you're getting for this stock , or I would say the potential value of Semi trucks actually performing better than expected.
Now, did I calculate that three and a half billion dollars at a rate of 20% or 25%? Let me just check. It was, yes, I counted at a rate of 25%. So, at a 25% margin, we get three and a half billion, and , of course, this should also grow, especially with the development of infrastructure. So right now, this could increase our forecast for Tesla stock to around $589 by the end of the decade.
Now, these are still very optimistic numbers and they don't reflect current analyst expectations, because this is EPS growth or it would mean EPS of $8.72. Let's see what Wall Street is predicting now, because I do n't think these numbers are even remotely close to that . So, okay, the analysts' forecasts take me to the end of 2030.
I have predictions of 1 whole...oh, excuse me, I'm still in percentages. Okay, let me quickly switch this to numbers and then we'll see what the analysts think. So, $1.70 for 2026, $2.27 for 2027, $3.28, $5.23, $7.60. This is the level that Wall Street is reaching now . And keep in mind that this is at a PEG ratio of 2.25.
If you rate it lower, like, you know, a more standard production ratio, it would be more like 1.4. And that will also be a risk factor. If I enter 1.4 and do not take into account Optimus and other technologies of this kind . I will get the fair value for 2030, not even the fair value for today, which is essentially the current price.
So, you are required to expect some form of PEG ratio increase. But anyway, you see my numbers here, let's do the math, 8.72 divided by 7.60—that's about 14-15% higher than what analysts are currently expecting for earnings per share, and then you put a multiplier on that . If you apply a low multiple, you know, a low PEG ratio forecast, you're going to be in a much worse position.
The growth rate forecast for Tesla is now about 42%, I would say if I divide that by four, it's actually down a little bit . 33.63, 44.3, 59.57, 45.15 divided by 4. Oh no, okay. Yes, here. Oh yes, that's about right. 45% is the current growth forecast. So if you take their current P/E ratio, it looks expensive.
359 divided by $ 70 is 211 P/E divided by 45. So, they're currently trading at a PEG of around 4.7. So, from a valuation perspective today, based on analysts' opinions, it's overvalued. But if we factor in some of this enthusiasm not just for semi-trucks but also for future FSD revenue and reaching 4 million vehicles by the end of the decade, there's reason to expect the stock price to rise.
I used to think that Tesla would fall after SpaceX , and it really did fall quite a bit. But it is quite possible that it is already approaching its bottom. Let's just look at the technical indicators. So if we move on to Tesla, we just broke the 347 mark again today on semi-truck news. But look at this bottom formation figure.
We had an oversold situation here during the LEO drama. This is quite reasonable. Now we have actually built this recovery at the mid-300s, which is exactly the bottom that was at the peak of the Iran crisis, and also the limit that we saw before the rise in 2025. So, you know, hey, if they can really get the FSD licensing right, bring a lot more of these semi-trucks to market, ensure that the number of cars grows, and also realize the Optimus robotics future that I've included here — although Optimus is still a long way off , we've seen the Unit IPO.
It has fallen about 39% since its IPO. Of course, it was underestimated and skyrocketed. But what do we get from bots? So regarding bots, I currently have a very low income from them in this valuation calculation. So I do n't even have a serious income from bots. Let me increase that to 25 billion in bot revenue.
And that would give us a profit on Tesla Bot of 6.2. If I turn on the bot, see what the bot can do for you. A bot can take you even higher by 2030. And that's where all the excitement lies. So, I just changed the value from 589 to 672, it seems like that. Let me take a look. 589. Yes. So if I take 672 divided by 589, that's an additional 14% potential on top of that just because of the bot.
So, I didn't even include that in my 2030 projections, which is also quite helpful. This is a manifestation of greater conservatism. So that's not bad. Well, if we could increase car deliveries again, and I guess I have a different opinion here than many analysts. Many are predicting, you know, 2.5 to 3 million cars by the end of the decade as the growth rate of electric vehicle sales slows.
I don't think semi-trailers will really add about a million units, do they ? So, we need to assume a significant acceleration in the growth of the number of cars to reach these figures, and that Optimus will indeed be sold in large volumes. I mean, 25 billion at a price of 25,000—that's selling a million of these Optimus robots by the end of 2030.
This, you know, is a lot. So let's write down some final conclusions. Good. So, if we sum it up, and we'll say, a million Optimus robots and 15 billion from semi-trailer sales, that could get us to ... and 4 million cars in total with an average price of 34 grand gives us a target stock price of 672.
If we take out the robots, that would give us about... I would say, somewhere around 582 or 589, or something like that. I think it was 589, somewhere in that area. And now we can start to see: okay , this is what we're basing our projections on, assuming 2.5 billion in high-margin revenue from FSD.
If I consider a more pessimistic scenario and remove FSD, reducing the figure by a billion. It's still impressive. We will only double the FSD by then . And Optimus remains a niche tool. Let's get this down to , I don't know. Let's lower it to five billion. You know, five billion in a pinch. You know, then we'll go back to that 592 range.
So Optimus and FSD take some of that load, and of course the multiplier for the company. You know, I'm not sure he justifies 2.25 since the net margin is so low. So the biggest risk factor is what kind of multiplier Tesla will receive. Net margin is low right now. Today's net margin is 5%. 5.3%. This is terrible.
It justifies, you know, a PEG ratio of 1.1, frankly, it essentially justifies a PEG of 1. We value it at a PEG multiple of 2.25. So, you know, the margin should increase again, it is predicted that it has already bottomed out. But even if the margin triples by 2030 , you're still stuck at 14% in the worst case.
So, expecting a 2.25x revaluation with a net margin of only 14% is not that good. The real test for the stock will be margin dynamics. The real test will be restoring margins. Do you know what the margin is for Optimus robots? What is the margin in robotaxi? What is the margin on semi-trailers? Er...And that's always been the main thing for Tesla.
The question is how much autopilot revenue can we add to each other car. I remember when Elon first hinted, "Oh yeah, we're thinking about licensing FSD to other companies." We are in talks with a major automaker. Stocks would skyrocket because people see high margins in this. People are willing to pay for a really high margin.
Semi-trailers will likely have significantly better margins than regular cars, simply because California is implementing this to get cleaner trucks. You know, that's the general concept regarding Optimus. Another interesting point: Elon began to say that Optimus and Grok could radically change medicine and make a breakthrough in healthcare.
He argues this is because there is a shortage of skilled surgeons and doctors, and this would allow Optimus' work to effectively take over medicine and significantly increase the number of highly skilled doctors, which would theoretically reduce the cost of healthcare. This is probably unlikely in the near future.
In my opinion, this is a perspective for 20-30 years, somewhere for several generations ahead. But the idea is really exciting, because, think about it yourself, to become a doctor, you need... I don't even know for sure. I could be wrong, but I'm sure it's four years of undergraduate study, and then medical school .
That's about four more years. Then there is residency, where you are effectively a novice and gain practical experience after your studies. So what do we have? At 22, you graduate from undergraduate school, at 26, you graduate from medical school, and by 30, you're $300,000 in debt. And this is probably just the beginning.
Maybe I missed something else in this process. It's a long road to becoming a doctor, surgeon, or anything else, which is entirely logical. This is a highly skilled industry. But it shows you, you know, that there's a lot of real hope for what robotics can do. And, of course, there will be great competition.
I mean, Unitree robots, we were looking at the Unitree IPO this morning, and Unitree went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. They already have these robots. Well, now you know how functional they are. I do n't know. I mean, here's a desktop model. Here's one that looks like it has a weighted plate on the bottom on wheels.
Here are a bunch of different versions you can buy. So, there will be Chinese competition. And I think that's probably a real risk factor for Tesla's Optimus prospects. I truly believe that the Chinese will continue to surpass us in manufacturing. And even if it means they steal our technology, and that's evil, and be damned, China, I think it's still going to happen.
For example, I already see BYD cars all over Europe, and it makes sense because they are simply cheaper. So, you know, with the tariff situation, it's almost more profitable for the EU to rely on China for cars than on America. That is, they already rely on, well, you have BMW taxis and police cars, for example, in Germany or elsewhere, because it's local production.
Ironically, it's cheaper for them than buying, say, a Ford Crown Victoria, even though they're not even made anymore. But in any case, Unitree is interesting because it went public with a valuation of, it seems, $50 billion. The ticker for them is on Weeble. We recorded it. I'm like, "Oh, there he is.
I get it." This is six eight, which is a lucky 36 . You can see that when the IPO happened, the price skyrocketed to $1,100, and now it's down about 40% or so. The market capitalization is now somewhere in the $30 billion range. So it really fell mostly because you're looking for profitability, right?
That's where it all comes from— profitability. Of course, if Optimus could be your surgeon in the future, it would have to be a high-margin product. I want it to be a high- margin product. I don't want some cheap Barbie-doll robot glued together with tape to do this. You know, he must be a good surgeon.
But the bottom line is that everything we've talked about in the Tesla segment is built on 2030 numbers and optimism about Optimus and trucks. All of this profit still remains unexplained. So when you compare Tesla stock to other companies, I think that's very important. You remember, there are 2026 estimates of the fair value of companies, and there are estimates for 2030.
So if you're comparing 10 different companies that you're thinking about investing in, I usually like to look at what the fair value is today or maybe even at the end of the year, right? So I don't look that far ahead. Tesla has an earnings per share estimate of just one dollar 70 cents by the end of this year.
you know, $70 even at 45% growth, even if I give them, well, at 5 % margin, you should only give them a PEG ratio of one . That puts them at about $70 a share, right? If you give them a generous, I think, PEG ratio of 2.25, that's a stock at $172. So that's not very good. Here's how the 2026 fair value estimates show you, you know , the full price of Tesla.
This is because the difference between the 2026 estimate and the 2030 estimate is that a lot of hope is placed on 2030 . The problem is that every time we have hopes for 2030, everything usually takes much longer than expected. So I think it's a fair way to hedge when we look at companies like Tesla. Steeply. .
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