원문 보기
One of the most watched bulls on Wall Street just looked at this selloff and said the words most people were afraid to say. Buy the dip. That's Tom Lee from Fundstrat, and he didn't say it about the whole market. He named five specific pockets that he says have fallen right back to support, the level where buyers usually step in.
In this video, I'm gonna show you his exact words, then check every pocket against the real evidence, the earnings, the orders, the money already moving. Because if he's right, this is the setup. And if he's wrong, I'll show you the one warning sign that proves it. Stay with me, because the last pocket on his list is the one everybody is fighting about.
for a bounce. I think the setup is for a buy on the memory, the semis, you know, the the the the neo clouds, you know, tech broadly crypto. I think that they've all pulled back to support levels at a time when people have become maybe very fearful of fundamentals. But as you know, if the fundamentals remain intact, then it's it's a coiled spring.
So let's slow that down, because there's a lot packed into one sentence. Memory. Semis. Neo clouds, that's the new AI cloud companies. Tech broadly. And crypto. Five pockets, and his claim is simple. Prices fell, but the businesses did not break. People got scared of the fundamentals, that's his word, fearful, while the fundamentals themselves stayed intact.
And when fear goes up but the business stays strong, Tom Lee says that's when the risk to reward gets good. You're buying the same companies, at lower prices, right where buyers stepped in before. Now, that's the claim. Let's grade it, pocket by pocket. Quick lesson, because this one phrase is the whole call.
Support. Support is just a price area where buyers stepped in before, hard enough to stop a fall. When Lee says these pockets pulled back to support, he means they fell TO the buyers, not through them. That's a big difference. Falling to support is a coiled spring. Falling through support is a broken chart.
So far, in memory, in semis, in the big tech names, the buyers showed up right where they were supposed to. That's the fact pattern he's betting on. Pocket one, memory. And here, the evidence is honestly hard to argue with. Micron, the big American memory maker, has already sold most of next year. More than seventy five percent of its twenty twenty seven output is committed, under contract.
Its backlog of contracted orders sits around one hundred fifty billion dollars. And on Monday, after the selloff, Micron's stock bounced off the nine hundred dollar level and held it all session. Memory stocks were some of the biggest gainers in Monday's bounce. So on pocket one, Lee's story checks out.
Real contracts, real demand, and buyers defended the exact level where the stock stopped falling. Pocket two, the semis, the chip companies themselves. And we've covered the receipts on this channel. ASML, the company that makes the machines that make the chips, just reported record sales, and its CEO talked about a lot of order intake for twenty twenty eight.
TSMC, the biggest chip maker on earth, raised its full year guide and its CFO said demand is extremely robust, no sign of slowdown. Those are not opinions. Those are the two most important companies in the chip supply chain, saying demand is strong, in their own words, on the record. If the AI buildout was collapsing, these two would feel it first.
They are not feeling it. Pocket two, checks out too. Pocket three is where it gets interesting. The neo clouds, the young AI cloud companies, and the name at the center of it is CoreWeave. This is the pocket everybody is fighting about. On one side, Cathie Wood's ARK keeps buying it, again and again, even as it slides.
On the other side, the credit market is charging CoreWeave record prices to insure its debt, and a strategist on the same show as Lee warned that higher interest rates hit exactly this kind of company first. So is CoreWeave a coiled spring, or a falling knife? Honestly, this is the one pocket where the evidence fights itself.
And that's fine. Lee's call doesn't need every pocket to be safe. It needs the fear to be bigger than the facts. Here, the jury is still out. Now here's the part that got my attention. Lee's technical strategist, a man named Mark Newton, said the bottom would come Friday or Monday. That was the call, on the record, before it happened.
And what did Monday do? The Nasdaq jumped one point one percent. Chips added close to two hundred fifty billion dollars in market value in a single day. Memory stocks, pocket number one, were among the biggest gainers. I'm not saying one green day proves anything. One day is one day. But when a strategist names the day the selling stops, and the selling stops that day, you write it down.
That's a data point, and it landed in Lee's favor. before viewers think that this is, you know, the start of a bigger downturn. I mean, markets are at support. Our technical strategist Mark Newton thinks we actually probably could rally. We either bottom today or on Monday. And I think from a fundamental perspective, I mean, as much as we Okay.
Now the catch, because there is one, and it's not small. Money is expensive right now. The ten year Treasury yield is sitting around five point one five percent, and it actually rose during Monday's rally. That's the headwind. On the very same show, strategist Dan Greenhaus made the other side of this argument.
Higher rates squeeze the most speculative parts of the AI buildout first. And Tuesday morning gave us a live reminder. A Korean data center company called Elice had its market debut, two hundred percent growth, huge demand for its shares, and it still fell thirty two percent. So the fear Lee is talking about?
It's real, and it's still in the room. His bet is that the fear is bigger than the facts. This week, earnings decide who's right. So here's how I'm watching it, with simple levels. Monday's bounce was step one. Step two is confirmation. The S and P five hundred needs to close back above seven thousand seven hundred forty four — that's the line that erases Friday's damage.
The Nasdaq needs twenty six thousand seven hundred eleven. And the line in the sand is seven thousand seven hundred on the S and P. As long as the index holds above that, the dip buyers are in control. Lose it on a closing basis, and Lee's support story breaks, and we reassess. Simple map. No guessing.
And the test starts tonight. Netflix and SpaceX report after the close. Tomorrow, Meta and Tesla. This whole earnings season, analysts expect S and P profits to grow about twenty five percent. If those numbers land, Lee's line — fundamentals intact — stops being an opinion and becomes the record. If they miss, the fear gets fed.
Either way, by Thursday morning, we'll know a lot more than we know right now. That's how you play a call like this. You don't marry it. You grade it, level by level, print by print. One more gauge to watch this week, the fear gauge itself, the VIX. It spiked on Friday when the selling hit. That's the fuel in Lee's whole thesis — fear up, prices down to support, businesses unchanged.
If the VIX cools off while prices hold these levels, the spring uncoils upward. If the VIX keeps climbing instead, it means the fear is still growing, and even good earnings might not save the bounce. Fear is the dial. Everything else is commentary. So, my verdict. On memory and semis, Tom Lee is standing on receipts, and I've shown you those receipts on this channel all month.
On the neo clouds, he's making a braver call, and the credit market disagrees with him, for now. His bottom timing already scored one hit on Monday. The levels will tell us the rest. That's how we do it here. Less hype, less fear, more evidence. If you're riding with the TenX family on this earnings week, type the word PUCK in the comments, hit subscribe, and I'll see you at the next print. Buy the fear. Sell the greed. Stay ahead.
댓글 0