저자: Kevin추정진행자 · 외국인
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트럼프-이란 협상으로 유가가 하락하고 있으며, 이는 내일 열리는 워시 연준 FOMC에서 금리인하 언급을 가능하게 하려는 의도로 해석한다. 시장은 금리 동결 이후 인상 가능성을 반영 중이나 연말 인하 기대는 낮다고 본다. 금·암호화폐에서 자금 유출이 나타나며 금에 약세를 전망한다. 현금 비중은 2006년 이후 최저 수준으로 과열 신호로 본다. 스페이스X 밈 랠리, 구글 저항선 약세 언급이 있다.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump is playing a great game of 4D chess with markets. And with the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting, oh, it is so weird to say that. No J Powell, thank. We have to prepare for what we should expect for tomorrow. Now, let me start by saying this.
I think there is absolutely zero shocker that Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to get a deal signed with Iran, including begging Bibi to stop attacking or striking Hezbollah inside of Lebanon for obviously retaliating against Hezbollah who's retaliating for Israel attacking Iran who's attack This keeps going, okay?
We don't need to go down this rabbit hole. Point is, Donald Trump is like, "Yo, we need this deal done this week and we need to do everything in our power to get oil prices to go down because we need Kevin Warsh to be a good little puppy and start talking about rate cuts because that's what the market is not doing right now." And so far, Donald Trump's call it announcement, or convenient timing, or manipulation is working out quite well for oil.
Now, that is creating some nervousness in the stock market, but I'll explain exactly why in just a moment. First, regarding oil, take a look at this. International Brent crude down under 80. Let's freaking go. That's actually huge. My goal was to get to about 65 to $70 by the first quarter of 2027. We're already at $79 in June.
That's fantastic. WTI sits at 76 bucks, so we still have a little bit of room to go. But, one of the big reasons we're dropping today is because of this Wall Street Journal exclusive which indicates that the Trump Iran deal is immediately allowing Iran to sell oil. In other words, if you've been paying attention to what Donald Trump has been saying, he's been consistently saying that oil is going to drop like a rock as soon as the deal is signed.
And so, it's no surprise to me that the deal is actually going to immediately there's no like hey we'll give you half of the 24 billion dollars now. Hey if things go well we'll give you 300 billion dollars in investment money over time and Jared Kushner is going to help you rebuild. There's none of this like hey we'll talk about it later crap.
It's quite literally the provisions for waivers of sanctions on oil take effect immediately upon signing the agreement this week and also enable whatever is necessary to make sure that banking infrastructure, transportation, insurance policies, whatever it is, even if the United States has to do an insurance like guarantee fund or whatever is done to make sure that oil keeps flowing.
I kid you not this is all part of the plan to make sure that Kevin Warsh can show up tomorrow and talk to us about rate cuts. Because that's how you keep this boom going. It's not just going to be SpaceX which obviously is doing a fantastic movement. I'm very happy about because we got a lot of money in SpaceX.
You know, let's be clear here. It's going through with meme movement. This is what we thought. We're like okay, it's going to get a little bit of a meme pump for the first 15 to 30 days cuz nobody can sell. Even people who bought on IPO day a lot of brokers require them to hold for at least two weeks.
So this is all totally reasonable. We made a little SpaceX and Tesla video this morning you should check out if you haven't seen it yet. But most importantly right now is what do we expect for Kevin Warsh tomorrow? Well, I've said it before and I'll say it again. I think Kevin Warsh is going to be an anchor for interest rates.
He has no appetite to actually increase interest rates. But when there's a big inflationary regime obviously there's going to be a lot of pressure to potentially raise rates. So what is the market doing right now? Well, the market is screaming at the Fed you should raise rates. In fact with about a 58.6% likelihood The market says the Federal Reserve should raise rates once by the end of the year and with about a 16% likelihood, the market should or the Fed should raise rates twice by the end of the year.
And if we go to the uh let's see, July 28th of 2027, we would only have about a combined 31% chance of staying where we are with rates or going down. Only about a 2.3% chance of getting a rate cut. So, the market's not pricing in any cuts. The market's pricing in two rate cuts certainly by next summer, but maybe even by the end of the year.
And in order to U-turn that, you suddenly need inflationary pressures to tank. Uh pun intended because now we're going to have tankers tanking oil by literally tanking oil. Get it? Anyway, uh oil prices are tanking because oil is finally going to get tanked out of the Strait of Hormuz again. And this, in my opinion, is all happening purposefully right before the Kevin Warsh meeting tomorrow.
Think about it. The Federal Reserve, they start their meeting today. Wow, hey, big news on the Wall Street Journal. Conveniently right as the meeting's starting. You know, maybe a couple hours into the Fed meeting. We're going to give insurance guarantees. That's been rumored, that part. But we're going to enable insurance, a colloquialism for insurance guarantees, I think.
Uh and we're going to make sure that they can transport oil immediately without any kind of delay or issues. And we'll let the Iranians sell their oil to the global market. Conveniently as the Fed meeting starts today. The Fed meeting ends tomorrow morning and it culminates with a rate decision. We'll probably get a hold and then of course we'll get Kevin Warsh's yapping.
Now, I'm personally really excited to see the Kevin Warsh yapping because I think today uh you have a lot of market participants that are kind of nervous. They're like, "Oh my gosh, what are we going to get? The Fed's going to be forced to talk about a rate hike. This is bearish. Let's take some money off the table." We also get a summary of economic projections tomorrow, unless Kevin Warsh for some reason removes the summary of economic projections.
It is an SEP meeting. But, what's more interesting to me is that right now, you've got a lot of people with a lot of money in markets, and I think people hearing, "Oh no, the Fed meeting is tomorrow." has people going, "All right, all right. Well, let's be a little cautious. We had a big run yesterday.
Maybe we don't want to be so aggressive going into a Fed meeting." Today, in the course member live stream, I actually said, "Hey, to don't do not expect it to rocket like it did yesterday." Yesterday, in our course member live stream and in our alpha report, I'm like, "Hey, I bet up today. Like, calls, baby." And today, what we said in the alpha report was, "Be careful.
A lot of the juice has already been thrown into the market on Monday. We had a great extension yesterday. Expect that to slow down today as people get nervous about the Fed." In fact, we specifically pointed out the 735 line, which we've been rubber banding around-ish here. I really hope we close at 735.
Really don't want to lose that 735 line, although it is a pretty loose line. Anyway, one thing to note is financials are actually doing pretty decently right now. Visa, JP Morgan, Virtu, SoFi, all doing really well. And even though Robinhood is red today, it has shot up over the past few days from about the mid to low 70s.
That support somewhere around 69 to 80. In that range is where we kind of keep bouncing up on Robinhood. So, financials are starting to kind of be like, "Hey, Kevin, you looking for another sector? Here." Look at my ti- I mean, look at my my my shares. Uh yeah. So, anyway, where were we? Oh, yeah. Uh, over here, Bank of America.
Look at this. This I thought was actually kind of incredible and implied like reiterates to me why there's some red today. Bank of America private client cash holdings as a percentage of assets under management, keep in mind Bank of America doesn't manage real estate. So, when, you know, like for example, House Hack has a bunch of assets, but if you just look at, you know, stocks to cash, that's going to be very different than if you look at the stocks we own versus the real estate that we own cuz we own so much more real estate.
The reason I say that is because Bank of America private cash holdings are not going to show you percentage of cash cash compared to real estate. And so, if people had real estate and stocks, their actual cash allocation would be even lower. And right now we're at basically the lowest level of cash allocation we've seen going back, well, forever in this chart, which is about 2006.
We briefly bottomed out around that bond crisis at the end of 2018 and early '19, it looks like over here. Actually, this I think this is all bond crisis at the end of '18 over here. So, basically no cash fear right now, which is surprising that during the bond crisis people were plowing money in and not really raising cash.
Maybe the bond crisis is actually that little peak right here because people freaked out in like December. So, it's a little hard to see where that line is right here. So, maybe right before that bond crisis, right here. All right? Anyway, it's been a while. And so, people don't actually have that terribly much cash right now.
And of course, we're seeing outflows in crypto. We're seeing outflows in gold. Not a surprise that we're seeing outflows here, both of these heavily driven by momentum. Kevin Warsh is very bearish for gold. I called the top on gold when Warsh was chosen and we topped within 2 days of my call on that.
Honestly, I think Kevin Warsh could usher in 8 years of a bear market for gold. That should sound really bearish for gold bugs and I apologize. It's my opinion. I'm just going to give it to you straight. Uh this unfortunately this is where the tech is the momentum is rather. So I always like to be cautious about just like chasing momentum.
Tech flows are obviously quite high but that's also where like earnings happen to be and right now Bank of America private clients hold 65.5% of their assets at Bank of America in stocks with 17.4% in bonds. And I wrote you better hope the market doesn't crash cuz that's a lot. That's pretty big. Uh also Bank of America is under the impression that Kevin Warsh is going to turn hawkish at the July 29th FOMC.
And to me I wrote that the market doesn't actually peak until the market prices in rate cuts again. Uh and so Bank of America's like oh he's going to turn hawkish. That's probably why you're seeing red in markets right now because some of the institutions are like oh yeah no you know things are going to go uh they're going to hawk to us they're going to hawk to us real bad.
I'm like I don't think so but whatever. So again I think there's no surprise that Donald Trump is timing this you know these oil announcements right before the Fed meeting because it's going to give Kevin Warsh the license to say hey boys and girls look we know there have been some inflationary pressures.
We think they're one-time inflationary pressures along with all the other one-time inflationary pressures we've seen and ultimately we think the artificial intelligence deflation is going to show up and when it shows up then you know we'll um uh we'll be able to go back to rate cuts. And to some extent you will see it come up.
I mean something that I thought was very interesting is that Sonnet uh the AI model costs about 1/20 of what Opus over at Claude costs and Akemi from Moonshot AI the Chinese startup costs about 1/20 of what Sonnet costs. So it's like you've got all these like cheaper choices of LLMs, and I think that's going to keep happening.
So, I actually agree with Kevin Warsh. That's his sort of That's the reason why he's at the Fed. He's a deflation bug. Uh I really hope we don't have a recession under Warsh. We probably will, but I really hope we don't because I don't think he's going to run the money money printer like J Powell would.
Which is a risk factor because, well, while it's probably healthier and more free market, is a risk factor in that you will go through pain for longer, which isn't great. Now, obviously, going back to looking at the market for right now, it's not just I mean, obviously, SpaceX is getting everybody's attention right now.
This is part of the meme cycle. But, I do want to also point out that Google talking about these LLM models, look at this. Google again rejecting 374. Uh and so, it it's really not been able to get through that 400 level, even though there was a period of time it was really pushing for it. Uh and uh now we're kind of getting stuck in the mud.
Look at that. We briefly broke out to 404, and now we're getting rejected by uh some of these upper lines here. So, a little short-term bearish there on Google. Anyway, that's uh that's what we got. I will see you live for the Fed meeting tomorrow. Thank you so much for being here. Consider following me on Instagram and X, .
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