저자: The Heavy Wallet · 외국인
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so do you think that the U.S is facing sexflation we're headed toward it yeah we have a market today which builds superficially like 2000. we think we're in a monetary inflation which is a very different animal than what we've experienced in the last couple of decades recent inflation has a cyclical inflation is when you get a pop in the economy pushes up against capacity constraints inflation goes up um but money and credit are under control this is a monetary inflation more like the 70s it was it was triggered by the massive injection of money and credit by the by policy which has now created a self a self-reinforcing process very high levels of nominal spending 10 nominal GDP growth I mean it's a long time since we've seen High nominal GDP growth right right so so there are things happening now that people are not used to because we haven't we haven't seen these Dynamics for a long time but the result of a monetary inflation is high nominal GDP growth and then that gets absorbed by prices and so you get low real growth right and that produces stagflation which creates a very difficult policy uh choice so do you think that the U.S is facing stagflation we're headed toward it yeah now it's how do you define stagflation there would be different ways but basically what's that the way we look at stagflation is in terms of how it affects markets and the way to affects markets is if the inflation rate is higher than discounted and the growth rate is lower than discounted and we're in a situation right now where there's a very low inflation rate discounted therefore it's easier easy to be above that and we've got a high growth rate discounted therefore it's easy to be below that so relative to what's discounted we could very easily be into this very quickly which feels superficially like 2000 and I think it's going to play out initially like 2000 and then unfortunately is going to phase As He suggests into the 70s where the deflationary effects on the economy and the stock market will result in a world rather like the 70s where all assets are simply much lower price than they are today a word on on inflation too I completely agree with array on on short-term problems which I I would summarize as monetary and and general Federal Reserve over stimulus for 30 35 years the war and covid all of those three influences guaranteeing that we have uh relatively intractable problem in the short intermediate term what what worries me is the longer term Arguments for inflation which is one we are running out of people in China where the 500 million extra farmers precipitated globalization they have now had diminishing cohorts of 20 year olds for 20 years and they are guaranteed since they're alive now we know the baby cohorts are dropping like a stone they are simply going to have a shortage of Labor as is the developed world together that is not a trivial block the developed World Plus China all of them will be squeezed for labor after the Bubonic plague they had a hundred year honeymoon period in which wages went up so much it wasn't reached for another several hundred years in the industrial revolution and we are entering a period where labor is simply scarce which feels to me inflationary and at the same time we have a scarcity beginning in resources and we keep an original unusual index a GMO it's 36 equal weighted important than most important Commodities so it's not dominated by oil and it showed a declining pattern for 102 years from 1900 to 2002 and yes it was interrupted by World War one and World War II and OPEC why wouldn't it be but it wanted to go down it went down 70 it took the index down to 30.
today 120 two years later the index is down 10 percent it has gone to 90. the average important commodity has just spent the last 20 years going from 30 to 90. it has tripled the reason is of course the growth of China but I believe very passionately looking at the data that it also represents the intrinsic scarcity the war between deeper wells worse iron ore Etc the best go first the struggle is always between technology which for a hundred years got ahead of scarcity it was two paces down for deeper and three and a half Paces up for technology and now we've reached a phase where we've gone through that stuff and now we have two paces up for technology and three Paces down for scarcity we the data is screaming at us now for 20 years that we're beginning to run out it doesn't and a war of course and covered we're so fragile all you have to do is cough now and it ricochets around the world in price spikes and and and and and and shortages and bottlenecks and that is the world we better get used to living in we're going to have a world of increasing number of bottlenecks and shortages and the same applies to food the UN food index is higher today than any time in its history of the last 50 years since it started okay so you you have price pressure on raw materials Metals food you have price pressure long term on labor this surely feels like a new era in which uh inflation will be part of the background music just like it was in the 20th century and perhaps more so the risks of a debt bubble breaking and the rest of an equity bubble breaking have simply not been understood by our Federal Reserve since Paul Bowker they are incredibly naive they haven't even got a clue they're not even interested in the ID the idea banank is saying of the U.S housing markets always has never declined it merely reflects a strong U.S economy Alan Greenspan encouraging etc etc right through until today they don't realize that they're playing with such fun my second point high levels of debt uh are just far too often seriously dangerous and should be in general discouraged actively that should be one of the responsibilities of top management including the FED Etc and let me just give you an example why why do you like low rates because it encourages death why do you like more debt because it encourages growth that's the IU so let me give you the ultimate statistical test of that we start in 1985 and we have been modestly increasing the debt to GDP ratio all that together just drifting slightly up due to technology and then the technology I mean the introduction of more and more sophisticated financial instruments but not Rising dramatically and then in 85 it kills to a 45 degree angle and shoots across any page and goes from about 1.1 times GDP to well over three so in that little window of 35 years we triple the debt to GDP ratio it's a big chunk of time is the biggest most important economy on the planet a pretty good test so what happens to growth it inflates downwards and from 85 we grow more slowly Grant you there are many other factors at work it's a complicated picture but there is little room in that equation for the idea that more debt creates more growth it is not proven in the data it is held to be the case it is an assumption like most of modern economics but it is not proven by the data I would suggest that there is no evidence at all to increase levels of macro debt to GDP have anything to do with growth they have everything to do with higher risks from time to time
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