저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
다음 약세장은 본인 생애 최악의 침체가 될 것이라는 전망이다. 2008년 이후 각국 중앙은행과 정부가 대규모로 돈을 찍고 빌려 쓰면서 세계 경제가 인위적 부양에 기대고 있다. 미국 부채는 지난 10여 년간 전례 없이 빠르게 늘었고, 이 인위적 부양은 결국 끝날 수밖에 없다. 인플레이션이 되돌아오면서 금리 상승으로 이어지고 있으며, 연준 등 중앙은행은 파산이 늘면 다시 돈을 찍을 가능성이 크다. 1970년대에는 폴 볼커가 고금리로 인플레이션을 잡았지만 그 대가로 카터는 재선에 실패했다. 현재 워싱턴에는 그런 역할을 맡을 정치인이 없다고 본다. 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이며, 기축통화 지위는 역사적으로 영원하지 않았다. 영국 파운드도 1920년대 최강국 지위를 잃고 1976년 IMF 구제를 받았다. 경제적·정치적 이유로 달러에 대항할 통화를 찾는 움직임이 있으나, 중국 위안화는 자본 통제로 아직 대체가 어렵다. 경기침체는 역사적으로 주기적으로 반복되어 왔고, 이번에도 예외가 아니다. 야넷 옐런 등이 문제를 통제하고 있다고 말하지만 그는 이를 믿지 않는다. 공포를 조장하려는 것이 아니라 역사를 공부하고 준비하면 살아남을 수 있다고 강조한다. 중국은 문제가 많지만 사라지지 않을 것으로 보며, 중국에 대한 투자를 포기하지 않는다고 말한다. 이 영상은 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 구체적 가격·목표가 언급이 없고, 매수·매도 권유도 없다.
다듬은 글
next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime as you know we had a big problem in 2008 or so and then central banks and governments around the world started Printing and spending and borrowing money like never in recorded history you know the world economy has been flooded with money and spending since then America has never gone so deeply in debt so fast as we have done in the last decade more than a decade now 13 years so yes we're all floating on a bit of artificial stimulation it always comes to an end no matter how much you you pump into the economy it seems to be coming to an end inflation is coming back which leads to higher interest rate and some people are starting to say wait a minute this is too much debt this is absurd not everybody I mean the Japanese are still doing it I'm not sure if the world has come to an end yet but I do know it's going to come to an end eventually in the form of another bear Markham and look out the window it says 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed the world has never seen anything like this accumulation of increase in death so the next bear Market has to be the worst in my lifetime given that the people in the Federal Reserve are not very smart people what they will do at the first sign of some some good news and it may already be here they will start talking about and even acting on slowing down but eventually they're going to print money till we run out of trees that's what all they know if there start to be a lot of bankruptcies or even a few bankruptcies they will get phone calls from people saying You must save us they will panic and they will print more money I don't think think in the history of the world many central banks has had two bad guys it's time for a lot of bankruptcies go down the tubes that's not the way bureaucrats think that's not the way academics think and the end result will be not good for you and me but it might temporarily save their jobs the 1970s inflation kept getting worse and worse and the central Bankers made it worse and worse but then the president it was Jimmy Carter at the time said to Paul Walker you do whatever you have to do and I will support you I mean this will shock some people but short-term U.S government treasury bills went to over 21 on treasury bills because voltage tightened and tightened and tight Heating and Carter said okay well it caused bad times but it chilled inflation Carter lost the election but it did Kill inflation I don't think that there's a politician in the land today who would do that or support that and I'm not sure that many bureaucrats I don't see this guy we have now is another Paul Walker I don't think we have a Paul Walker in the U.S and eventually they will cave in late 1970s America as a nation was still a predator nation in which we remained until the mid 80s so there are many different things now as far as we are concerned we being the United States and our situation is much much worse and these guys in Washington are making it very much worse every day not every month every day I would remind you that we have periodically had recession since the beginning of time all over the world Janet Yellen said he was a Secretary of the Treasury no no we have figured it all out don't worry we have it under control so if you believe her then when don't worry Washington's sorted all this out now I happen to know she's wrong and I happen to know that we will have recessions again in the world and the next one has to be very bad as I explained 2008 was a nightmare for many people since then the debt has gone up by astonishing amounts they are terrifying and is continuing to get worse every day so the next problem has to be very very bad it'll be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so be the worst in your lifetime too China will certainly continue to have problems they will survive I I'm not giving up on China is not going to disappear in 2008 they had a lot of money saved up the world started collapsing so they started spending when it started raining the Chinese started spending the money but now China even has a whole lot of debt I don't see who can save us now but the world has had many Reserve currencies International mediums of Exchange in history none of them have survived I'm delighted that the US dollar has been on top for many decades but history would indicate that is going to come to an end and that maybe it's time I mean I remember when the pound sterling lost its status you know in 1920s Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world he was number one there was no number two 50 years later 1976 to be precise Britain was bankrupt literally IMF had to bail out Great Britain because they were bankrupt they went from no competitor to Total bankruptcy so it has happened it can happen and it will happen we are certainly we've been on top a long time for economic reasons we are the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so there are financial reasons for people to look for something else there are also political reasons that you aptly point out you know all of a sudden well it's sinking in to many people that there are many reasons and many major players in the world are looking for something to compete with the U.S dollar I don't like this atom but I can see it happening and we all have to adjust to it whether we like it or not I don't know normally I would think it would be the Chinese currency because for many reasons but the Chinese currency is a blocked currency I mean you I can go online and buy the Euro if I want or the US dollar I cannot buy and sell the Chinese currency easily so that's not a player at the moment anyway maybe that will change but you know by 1776 the dollar was Rising as strongly it had had a great play after the second World War but unfortunately that play has been going on for a long time and I don't know what it's going to be I'm not trying to scare people I'm just telling you how the world has always worked for it this is the way the world has always worked Justice from the Old Testament they had seven good years and seven bad years I mean this has been going on a long long long time just read some history do your own research and then you will get knowledgeable and if you get knowledgeable you will get worried because you will see this has happened many times before and it's going to happen again as it always has and those who are prepared and knowledgeable will do well and survive some people came out of the 30s very rich so if you're prepared you'll do fine foreign
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