저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 투자의 최우선 원칙은 상관관계가 낮은 10~15개 투자처로 분산하는 것이며, 이것이 수익을 낮추지 않고 위험을 크게 줄이는 '성배'다. 분산투자 원칙: 서로 상관관계가 낮은 좋은 투자처 10~15개를 확보하면 수익률을 줄이지 않고 위험을 최대 80%까지 낮출 수 있으며, 이 경우 위험 대비 수익 비율이 약 5배 개선된다고 주장. 핵심 주장: 큰돈은 가장 좋은 한두 개의 베팅을 찾아서 버는 것이 아니라 하락 위험을 제거하거나 줄여 게임을 계속하는 데서 나온다. 단일 베팅 접근은 한 번의 큰 손실로 탈락시킨다. 리스크 인식: 모르는 것이 아는 것보다 많다는 점을 전제로 자신이 무엇을 잘 알고 무엇을 모르는지 파악하고, 그에 맞춰 분산해야 한다고 강조. 흔한 실수: 최근 많이 오른 투자가 좋은 투자라고 믿는 것. 많이 오른 시장은 비싸지고 스마트머니가 경쟁하며, 순진한 자금이 인기 자산이나 많이 떨어진 자산을 뒤쫓는다. 시장의 경쟁성: 모든 투자처는 경쟁하며, 어느 투자가 더 나은지 판단하기 어렵다. 전문가도 고르는 능력을 검증하기 어렵고, 기관들이 연간 수억 달러를 리서치에 쓰므로 개인이 우위를 갖기 힘들다. 시장 경쟁은 올림픽보다 어렵고 제로섬 게임이다. 기술과 사고 방식: AI 등 기술이 계산·정보 검색을 대체하듯 사고 영역도 기기에 의존하게 될 것이며, 이는 인간을 고차원적 사고로 끌어올리는 긍정적 진화로 본다. 원칙을 세우고 최선의 원칙을 찾아 활용하는 것이 중요하다. 조건/리스크: 분산 효과는 투자처 간 상관관계가 낮을 때만 성립. 출연자 개인의 특정 자산 전망은 언급되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 없음(일반 원칙 중심).
다듬은 글
I was asked a question from chat GPT interesting so I'll tell you although I suspect you probably can get an equally good answer from chat GPT the most important principle is about what I call the Holy Grail of investing and that's about diversification what it means is in a nutshell I could describe it as if you can get 10 or 15 good uncorrelated Investments you can reduce your risk by up to 80 percent without reducing your return that means you increase your return to risk ratio by a factor of five risk reduction is really key so uh it's how it's a know-how to diversify well in the area of 10 or 15 Investments if you can do that then you will make a fortune because making a fortune is not just a matter of The Upside it eliminates or reduces the downside so you continue to play the game a lot of people think that the way you make a lot of money is to come up with the best single or few bets that's wrong that approach to the game will knock you out of the game you'll have one terrible situation keep in mind that what you don't know is greater than what you do know and so the power of diversification is a really great power so I'd like you to understand what are you good at what do you know and what don't you know and then how do you diversify well to have a good return relative to your risk that's the most important principle I think what you're seeing with chat GPT is just the tip of the iceberg and how you're going to think that you will increasingly go to your device and you're going to be following that device you'll get better advice out of your device than you your own thoughts and you're going to see it happened in an enormous number of areas for example you know it used to be that you needed to know something about math and arithmetic and then you get a calculator then you evolve information you used to have to remember um things nowadays you can so easily look up all history it's at your device now you're going to more and more be able to say what is the best thinking who is the best thinking where am I going to get the best thinking what can be done and you'll be following the instructions on your device and I think that that's not a bad thing this is a good thing in many ways because it elevates us it's part of an evolutionary process in which technology is increasingly replacing parts of man you know the physical you in the old days the man physical labor matter more and more than machines replace that and as we go and Ascend to higher and higher levels of thinking that the brain increasingly is being able to use and that raises you because you can then think about how do I think what are the principles so for example if you think about principles and I think about those this tool in the form of principles you can go get the best principles from wherever they may come and consider them and then also make your own principles so I think all of this helps to elevate us but it's going to change the dimension of the world that we're in avoid the following mistake the most common mistake of investing thinking that the investment that did good is a good investment people rather more expensive the things quite often those markets that did really really well became more expensive and everybody smart money is all the time compete comparing them and competing so what happens is the naive money buys the thing that was hot or is hot the thing that has been terrible which might be the thing that's beaten down so I would say also an important element okay so here's another one that's really important diversify because what I learned about this is that first of all all Investments uh compete and it's not easy to sell tell whether one investment's better than the other because if people could do that life would be easy and everybody make a ton of money um so and this is a competitive game that's very difficult to compete in so it's very difficult to say which one's better or worse you could take experts and you could and do all sorts of tests and you'll find out that they can pick that and you can't tell whether the worst ones are going to be better so because of that you understand that um even picking the best ones is difficult and particularly if you're naive like we spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year on Research to try to give us an edge okay now you've got to compete with us so uh competing in the markets is more difficult than competing in the Olympics you wouldn't both think I'm going to compete in the Olympics but there are more people who try harder in order to do that so it's a zero-sum game so but diversification um that they're different uh will reduce your risk without reducing your return
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