저자: TwoStupidGuys · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바 주가가 70달러 아래로 밀린 상황을 점검. 중국 부동산 침체와 소비심리 위축, 가계자산의 부동산 편중, 지정학 리스크(대만, 중동, EV 과잉생산)를 하방 요인으로 꼽음. 매출 정체, 영업이익 변동성, 자사주 소각 진행과 현금흐름 수익률(FCF yield 약 24%)은 긍정 요인으로 제시. 진행자들은 10년 장기보유 관점을 유지하며 추가매수에도 긍정적인 입장.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys trade st with Alibaba stock being back below $70 a share Are We Wrong are we completely under idiots that completely missed the boat according to many of our YouTube comments on PRI RB videos that is the case we're going to talk about some of the issues facing Al about the stock right now I'm scared two St guys Tre STS hey hey I can't believe we're back below $70 a share again that's the crazy part didn't um what's the what's the guy that shorted a video I'm blanking oh everything money uh Paul yeah I think they just bought more OB right did they I have no idea I stopped following them you know rip Seth okay um you know it's crazy to think back that at one point in time Ali Baba was at like a $300 per share stock it's just it like boggles the mind at this point when you look back on that as we we we sit here now below 70 and can't even get any sort of like actual positive trend um and we zoom in on a year here we're pretty locked in a a little channel here as of now um which is you know I guess for my covered call strategy it's worked out well I'm I've definitely lost money on Alibaba like a fair amount but if I hadn't done the covered call strategy it would have been much much more I like I've mitigated a significant portion of my downside fortunately because of that what are your covered calls a strike price because I'm too afraid to do it just on this I'd have to look at it mine just most recent ones just expired yesterday I want to say it was at 90 maybe I can't remember um yeah yeah exactly it I when I sold that it was actually much higher I don't know what the the current like next price I'll I'll sell at will be depending on you know I was supposed to do it yesterday I just didn't get around to it got it um spent four hours working on my car instead um so free cash flow yield okay we've looked at this before we did this most recent Alibaba earnings video uh it almost seems meaningless at this point it the numbers are so ridiculous Alibaba right now has $168 billion market cap 68.6 billion in net cash position as of last quarter um giving them like a little under1 billion do Enterprise Value insane um and the triling 12 month free cash flow was 24.25 billion meaning a 24.3% yield effectively which is just crazy to be able to yield 24% on your money in that has nothing to do with all their Investments also that's just yeah that which is even grosser but yeah y absolutely going to touch on the Investments a little bit these are some of the areas in which Alibaba stock has really struggled okay I'm going to break it down to a few different sections here so China macro all right um we just recently received this week the latest GDP numbers for the uh Chinese economy and it came in above expectations you know um China has had a phenomenal period of massive economic growth um and they've been slowing down of late but they were still tracking right around this 5% target range as far as GDP um however within that report there were some segments that were a little bit more worrisome um particularly they mentioned down here that you know the demand for homes is very frail and it's weighing overall momentum retail sales and you know kind of uh consumer confidence are really intertwined there so is a big one there yeah yeah there's something called The Wealth effect um joe side kind of touched on a little bit in an interview that he gave here um you know obviously we have this property sector crisis it's been playing out for a couple of years now in Alibaba stock all right um or in Chinese economy and Weighing on Alibaba stock I should say that they new prices new home prices fell at the fastest Pace in more than eight years last month all right property investment down 10% then we have the actual sales numbers tumbling 23% that's those was some pretty big declines in the housing market which in the Chinese economy is even more important than it is in the American economy you know we've talked about how in the US about 30% of household wealth is tied to real estate in China it's like 70% yeah the vast majority of household wealth is tied up in real estate so they feel that effect much more strongly than we do and you know if you're a little old enough to remember the 2008 financial crisis just the effects that that had on the American economy and I half the impact from a proportional standpoint as it is for the Chinese economy right now just wild yeah I will say I feel bad saying this but I'd love to see those numbers in America because housing is so gross and so ridiculously out of hand I would love to see a 23% decline in in uh numbers I don't even care if my house went upside down that's fine I have a bunch of money on the side just I would love to buy a property but I can't yeah yeah well I mean we're sitting at all-time highs here for home prices in the United States right now uh despite the interest rate environment prices for homes have still gone up over the last year um you know evergrand you know they're still in the process of liquidating the bankruptcy this was just the news article from January of this year um you know don't forget the largest property developer in China went bankrupt the last couple years that was something that you know certainly had a effect upon you know the uh Alibaba other retail companies you other massive property kind of developers like U China Garden uh are also Mark Market Garden no that's the invasion of uh someone will correct me on this but there's something Garden okay uh and they're also fa facing significant financial headin um so this is Joe Sai talking about here I actually gave an interview but he's talking about how the the weight upon consumers of the Chinese economy explaining that it makes up 31% of Global Production but only 14% of consumption so Chinese kind of um you know individuals and households they do they produce like a two to1 ratio for what they consume compared to the Americans which you know it's like 70% of global consumption it's just wild how much more of a consumer mentality we have here as opposed to uh the Chinese you know folks that have such a save and invest kind of mentality they investing in real estate which is the problem is that now they've losing value of that real estate and their much their household wealth is decreasing significantly but they still have cash savings so some that got Unleashed but right here I high savings and household cash is strong consumer confidence is low know that's really what you're facing there from a macroeconomic standpoint all right geopolitical risk this has been another thing we've seen play out over the last couple years right um we've seen the escalations in the US China trade Wars and you know this is another take on it this is specifically talking about EVs and how overc capacity of EVS EV Market has really falling off a cliff here in the United States um and now you're seeing you know companies like byd become like the world's largest producer producer of electric vehicles and there's this you know talking point I guess you could say consideration that this over production of capacity will continue to drive down prices because now they have you know a ability to produce many times more EVS than there actually is a demand for in the market right now even with these subsidies that still exist but this is just another kind of little chapter in the entire trade Dynamic you've seen play quick question and I'm sorry I'm this is like two slides late I want to make sure I wasn't wrong is the housing crisis fueled by because I know China has ghost cities where they just use debt to build an unbelievable amount of houses that are just empty that no one lives in it cuz that would create a huge supply and demand issue so is that like spiraling this on top of the ever Grand bankruptcy it's part of it I mean like I said people in China prefer to invest in real estate so they were in buying homes that they had no intention upon occupying betting on the appreciation of the homes therefore you get a production of homes that no one was anticipating on living in so that's why you get these like ghost cities quote unquote the actual volume of this G cities I'm not really sure if there's like a u it doesn't look like there's a def number yeah yeah exactly and the other thing that really points out is you know trans it back to this three three red line policy that the Chinese government put in to help curtail the overexpansion and leverage and the Ponzi scheme nature of these uh real estate developers where they were requiring fut investment in future properties to finish properties that currently had under construction and once once that policy was put in place to prevent this bubble from growing even more that's when you really saw like the kind of you know Emperor's close turned out to be nothing at all um as far as like these these large Chinese developers that's that's what really trigger that so back to like this geopolitical risk we still have this elevated tension between China and Taiwan um you know this also plays in a little interesting here where we have now you know Taiwan semiconductor you know moving a significant portion of their or building in you know a significant portion of foundaries now in the United States not only to get to chip sack money but also because they're trying to divest away from you know having significant exposure to you know any cross Taiwanese Straits uh you know kind of what's the word I want to say here I want to say violence but tensions unease they're building in Arizona too which is yeah that's where I am kind of crazy yeah it's pretty cool um so also have don't forget that like we have a war taking place between Russia and Ukraine and we have this you know war between Israel and Hamas that over the last weekend potentially almost looked like it was going to escalate into a region wide conflict uh it sounds like Israel and Iran or in in the yeah you hit me I hit you back kind of phase but nothing like really trying to be aggressive with each other as far as you know having a major impactful war if you will yeah so Iran responded saying it wasn't an attack it wasn't infiltration which I guess means they don't have to attack back it just seems like they both don't want to do anything so they both did fake attacks to be like oh we're still strong but and they're they both agreed is what it seems like but the this was like a New York Times thing like eight hours ago they're calling it not an attack and infiltration thus they don't need a rebuttal if you will yeah it it save the face sort of thing U but you did see a big spike up in oil prices leading into this and now we've seen that cool back down uh but you have this kind of global you know uneasy environment uh where you have commodity prices rising and China is a major importer of oil you know so that that's something that their economy feels the brunt of more than you know some other folks right because they're they're producing 31% of the global output uh and largely fueling that with oil uh and coal um now as far as Alibaba specific issues this is another portion right you know they have had a lot of turnover right so we just had a recent CEO poed back in September um but we also had this restructuring program where they were trying to break up into the six different units and reorganized there and they were going to IPO some of them don't forget this all started originally originally with the an group IPO that just never actually happened uh so there's been a lot of turmoil within Alibaba itself right um we had this this kind of little episode where Daniel Zang became the CEO of Alaba cloud and then was like quickly out within like what was it like two months not even it's thinking like it was barely had time to unpack his office furniture um and now they are backpedaling on these IPOs of all these Logistics units because you know the Chinese envir um you know kind of economy right now is not doing super well so you can't get these overinflated prices for IPOs so it doesn't make sense to IPO something at this time point in time where you can keep it on your balance seat keep it in house and then eventually you know IPO at a later date when things are doing better as far as the company itself we've also seen the kind of when it comes down to the metrics the revenue has been largely flat over the last couple years right like we're barely where we were in 2022 as far as revenue and this includes them cannibalizing things where they they've had become more the direct retailer as opposed to that consumer um uh customer management value or Revenue CMR Revenue which was the higher profit margin Revenue we wanted to see this is as you would say Charlie Monger saw them evolving into be just a retailer as opposed to like a platform company right um definitely an issue operating income been sporadic you know they've still been making some operating income pretty consistently throughout this time but as far as the growth you're not seeing consistent growth like you were at one point in time uh it's been all over the all over the map net income same thing this is where you start to see the I guess the weighing right now of um the Chinese economy in general and the depressed valuations of all these other Investments they have because they do carry a considerable number of Investments and other things like ank group on their balance sheet right so they get a lot more variation in their net income this is why like when ju Buffett talks about Brookshire hathway earnings he's saying to focus Less on that and more focus on the operating income because it's a better metric of the actual underlying business and that this will fluctuate from quarter to quarter significantly um but you know we saw pretty pretty steep drop off here and we've seen some run up recently but not nothing crazy as far as positive news uh shares outstanding has been consistently declining they are you know people say that like oh they're still giving away share B comp but they are um but their share byb back Pace has been aggressive enough that they are starting to like meaningfully chew up shares which is something nice I like to see uh that's one positive thing here uh to kind of end the entire presentation on but I wanted to give you like what are your thoughts to you know going back in a time machine would you have bought Alibaba shares and what is your plan going forward with your Alibaba shares well you can't give me a time machine question because I would say no I would have bought Nvidia and then I doubled down on Nidia when it hit $700 and you'd been like you're an idiot but it would have worked uh well except for yesterday um but it's I mean it's a 10-year hold so I will say I had recently looked at all of my uh calls that I have made where you know I I I bought a bunch of Bank of America I bought Schwab which people talk about for some reason um ax had it all everyone I've I've done especially MD has been crazy crazy successful except for this one so you know it's it's a 10 year hold it's tough to expect a stock to go very high when the entire economy is having a bunch of issues so you know this could be in an accumulation phase I'm actually not against buying more to be honest at this price it's just such it's such a low price and if I'm truly in a 10- year hold who cares um I know that you're not buying more yeah you know it helps me sleep at night you know at this point like that's how I look at it I'm continuing to sell my covered calls against and trying to lower my C spasis uh even further but it's not something where I want to overexpose myself because if I overexpose myself then I'm I'm more likely to get emotionally invested in it and do something silly as far as like the position itself um know someone that said like oh the way you guys talk about Alibaba must be like significant portion their worth and like I want to say I calculated and it was like 2% of my like household not worth or something ridiculous like that um that's why I've kept my position small I only own like 140 shares um the it just allows you to have more peace of mind and to have that confidence in like this is what the numbers say the numbers say it's a good investment in buy at this point and I continue to stick with that based upon that thesis unless I see something grade meaningfully um I'm you know hopeful that we'll have some easing tensions between the US and China and that you know globally there'll be you know kind of more uh peaceful times and that eventually the the Chinese economy will come through this phase where real estate has been a real uh problem uh for them real you know headwind and they will go back to a you know kind of regular growth where consumers feel confident and you know are able to spend money and on platforms like Alibaba that's that's my hope and my my underlying investment thesis still to this day so still Pro 10 years yep exactly yeah me too I have no idea what my net worth is do you actually take the time to to do your net worth yeah yeah on occasion I will not like not like I have no idea but every like I don't know six months or so never done it all right I no I've never done it uh yeah I don't know I have 380 shares of Baba I don't know nice yeah but my cost is like 100 bucks or something I don't know I have to check it I don't remember um I'm too afraid to do covered calls CU it's uh it's really jumpy but we will see let us know what you guys think if some of you are calling it or buying more probably going to buy more catch
Comments 0