저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
2019년 초 미국 부동산 시장 낙관론. 금리 하락과 연준 중립 전환으로 2019년 성장·가격 상승 기대. 주식시장 고점 우려는 있으나 기업이익·소득 증가 강조. 부동산 재고 증가는 즉시 소진되고 있고 가격이 오르고 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
the markets could have collapsed from the New York Stock Exchange and I'm breaking news it is like negative 9 degrees okay that's not really what the breaking news is although it is really really cold right now the breaking news is well what's been happening in the market place and what's changing right now this is a bigger bubble than the one that blew up in 2008 and the crisis that is going to ensue is going to be far larger we've heard it time and time again we've heard that we are at the end of this market cycle the worst performance in the stock market over a decade ago this is the period we have experienced the highest volatility in stock prices since the 1930s we cannot also deny that we experienced the most unfavorable Christmas Eve in Wall Street Ray Dalio told us we're in the seventh inning we're in I would say the seventh inning of this cycle I think that we're at the stage in the cycle where what interest rates are being raised right we're in the later stage the baseball game is almost over Peter Schiff is saying buy gold gold gold stocks are on sale that's where the sales are right now on the gold stocks and he happens to sell gold what what are we supposed to do it is way too confusing out there but folks I've got some data for you let's dive in to the numbers the unemployment rate in expensive states that people are leaving is like New York and California plummet the unemployment rate in states where people are going towards like Texas plummeted Auto delinquencies plummeted rock-bottom housing delinquencies rock-bottom student loan debt wall up delinquencies rock-bottom a lot of these are things that we're expecting to change or to see a change in pattern to be indicative of some kind of recessionary how many times are we gonna hear about student debt and auto debt and housing dead in corporate debt corporate debt by the way delinquencies rock bottom and sure is debt at a higher level than it has been absolutely but what else is at a higher level corporate profits through the roof housing income that is median and real adjusted inflation adjusted income skyrocketed what about that dreaded inversion of the yield curve that we keep hearing about which is supposed to be the indicator of a recession as soon as we hit that inversion pretty much halted that is we're not seeing the inversion happening anymore and so much lately has been talked about well wait a minute housing interest rates are through the roof and this was true in the summer but guess what they've plummeted also we're down almost three quarters of a percent from the height in the summer when the market was really starting to suffer now things are much better so what's going to happen next well that's the big question but I can tell you this I predicted in the summer we were going to see housing prices plummet and then what happened I said housing prices would fall eight to ten percent based on June to July statistics I wouldn't be surprised if we see eight to twelve percent off the top they fell ten percent what happened at the end of the year I'm gonna get run over by a car well we saw a lot of tumult that's when we saw all of the news articles the doom and gloom saying prices are falling the bottoms coming out weren't going back to another 2008 yet in reality I was saying at the end of 2018 we need to prepare for quarter 1 2019 because we're probably going to see an influx of inventory but the three things that we're killing our market in 2018 will not be a factor in 2019 those things be high interest rates which we just talked about no longer being as high as they were the Trump tax plan and the impact of that which we're not gonna have another tax plan in 2019 so we had our adjustment so to speak to the new tax law changes and we don't have a bullish fed any more hawkish feds saying we're gonna raise raise rates instead we now have a neutral fed it's a little bit more accommodating so what does this mean for real estate well it was supposed to mean a lot more inventory coming in the market in January but guess what's actually happening in January where I thought we might see a little bit more of it did because of all these houses coming on and then people slowly reacting like okay all right the markets not bottoming out let's buy instead what's actually happening is yeah we're seeing a flooding of inventory hitting the market but it's all being bought already the fires are swooping in much sooner than expected what does this mean for you and the marketplace the odds are 2019 especially if rates stay as low as they are now is going to be an excellent year for growth and appreciation I'm gonna get a lot of hate for saying that but folks prove me wrong on the data show me where I'm wrong because even the US dollar is doing extremely well against the euro euro on the other hand seeing a little bit of slowing but that could also be a lingering reaction to what happened to us last summer let me know your thoughts in the comments below oh you want to be an expert real estate investor and get my insights before I bring them to youtube make sure to join the real estate investing course use coupon code birthday 2019 for 10% off you win here's a kettle ball for you Peter Schiff it'll be worth more than your goal so now that we're in a warm climate which is also where I suggest you buy real estate what is actually happening on the ground with real estate what like what are people thinking the markets gonna do well I can tell you I visited Idaho Falls Park City Utah Salt Lake City Utah now are in New York City and I know obviously locally where I'm from Santa Barbara Ventura County real estate things are blowing up inventory is significantly lower than we expected it to be at the beginning of the year and we're starting to see prices go up so what does that mean for me well that means my plans of buying something at the bottom I kind of missed that boat looks like the bottom honestly was the period right before Christmas which I always say November to January is buy time well interest rates were at their lowest point December 15th right before the Federal Reserve meeting and right after that fire started swooping in picking up all the deals in fact I wrote a full price offer on a 1.4 million dollar four-plex and lost the deal well I guess the next thing you could do is you could buy home goods because why not buy some nice greenery that's not real in the wintertime warm but if my hands are still frozen in fact look it's like turning blue here does a wind tunnel this is the front door to the Federal Reserve there's no people no door handle and no ring doorbell hi officer is is the market gonna crash how cold is it
Comments 0