저자: 아레스 · 한국인
요약 보기
CPI 발표 후 나스닥이 상승했으나 TQQQ는 하락. 발언자는 TQQQ를 매도했는데 이유는 베타 조정이며 시장 고점 판단이 아니라고 설명. 현재 베타는 여전히 1.5 이상. 은행권 신용경색과 부채한도 협상 리스크를 언급하며 향후 하락 시 저가 매수 계획을 밝힘. 멤버십 구독 유도.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Ares. I sold TQ today. Today, I would like to explain the reasons for the sale and my future plans. The Nasdaq rose by about 1% alone, while the Bow actually declined. Yesterday, the CPI was released, and since meaningful figures were produced, the Nasdaq ultimately ended up rising. I will summarize the CPI for you; this is all you need to look at.
TQ hit $29, rising by more than 3%. Tesla also rose to $174 during the session but closed at $168. SPY closed at 412.8. Although it briefly broke below 410, it ultimately closed higher. This is why the Nasdaq, which is influenced by interest rates, is relatively attractive right now. With Google and Amazon rising significantly, Big Tech once again led the market overall.
Apple also rose by a whopping 1%, leading the Nasdaq's 1% rise. In this era of high interest rates, it appears that companies with pricing power will increasingly dominate the market. I have placed a sell order. As a result, it amounts to selling about 4% of my total stock holdings and about 2% of my total assets.
To reiterate, the reason I sold is... There is only one thing: beta adjustment. It does not mean the market is at a peak or has reached its highest point. I believe it has risen moderately. Furthermore, I simply reduced my beta because I thought it was the appropriate time to cut it. Currently, my beta is still over 1.5.
Our first principle is to adjust our beta and invest according to each market situation. To reiterate, I adjusted my beta to purchase a larger quantity. Since the stock has risen significantly, the beta naturally increased. My last purchase of TQ was at $20.7, so it is only natural that the beta has risen during that time.
I plan to increase my beta further during a downturn. For those with a low beta (likely an Ilia), please only buy when a good opportunity arises. I do not recommend selling when your beta is low, as doing so could cause you to permanently miss the opportunity to buy again. Beta adjustment is best done only by those with high betas.
Now, I have filled in the section regarding selling again. This is the diagram I have shown you ad nauseam. The yellow section represents buying, and the blue section represents selling. Those of you who have consistently watched my videos and subscribed to my membership will know this well. Everyone, the blue section will come again.
When that time comes, I will... They will likely buy like ghosts. I will always let you know immediately, even then. I have opened up everything. Let's talk about macroeconomics. Everyone, inflation is being brought under control. However, we cannot say that the pace has accelerated noticeably. Nevertheless, we can see that it is gradually being brought under control.
Although inflation is being controlled, banks are tightening lending standards and gradually reducing their positions. The banking sector is deeply feeling a sense of crisis regarding a credit crunch. Several banks have failed so far, and the scale is currently larger than during the Lehman Brothers collapse.
The Financial Times states that instability in the U.S. banking sector is causing a recession. A chain of bankruptcies and defaults in the banking sector triggers a credit crunch. This means that if lending decreases, private corporate investment will decline, leading to an economic downturn. It was also reported that Biden engaged in daily negotiations regarding the debt ceiling, which is the hottest issue for investors.
The current discord in the market is regarding the recession and the failure of the debt ceiling negotiations. Mark Minervin tweeted about the time when the market was negotiating the debt ceiling. Previously, the U.S. had its credit rating downgraded during debt ceiling negotiations. At that time, the S&P experienced a drop of about 20%.
The chart at the very top is This is the S&P 500 in 2011 and the current S&P 500. Minobini is, of course, warning that volatility could increase due to the debt bailout negotiations. Minobini later posted another incredibly long tweet. Citing examples of stock market crashes during past debt bailout periods, he mentioned a key point: at the end of a bear market, even though volatility is high, do not sell and get out.
It seems he is describing the current situation in that way. He is saying that even if a shock comes from the debt bailout negotiations, do not sell and get out while cursing the government. Mark has experienced both bull and bear markets and is called the man closest to God. Whether we follow principles and accomplish what no one else has done ultimately depends on us.
How we invest during this chaotic time, and whether we have the courage to take risks during a truly terrifying period, will determine next year's investment election. I disclose all my buys and sells transparently. In the membership, I always share my views and disclose my buys and sells in real time.
Finally, I bought TQ at $20.7, and Tesla too I bought at $153. Now, for the first time in several months, I sold TQ at $28.79. Going forward, I will continue to buy at good prices and sell at good prices to secure cash. If you would like to invest with me, please join the membership. That’s all for today.
Thank you. This has been Ares US Stocks, risking everything to invest in leverage and Tesla. Thank you.
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