저자: ChickenGeniusSingapore · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라 최악의 시나리오를 본인 계산으로 제시하며, 파산 가능성은 낮고 2019년 말 기준 주가 대비 보수적 가치는 약 824달러 수준이라는 주장. 파산 가능성: 기업은 현금이 없을 때 파산하며, 테슬라는 손실 중이어도 추가 자금 조달이 가능하다는 입장. 애널리스트 평가: 대부분의 금융 애널리스트는 신뢰도가 낮다고 보며, ARK Invest의 Cathie Wood 등 일부만 성과가 좋다고 언급. ARK Invest 시나리오: 2023년 테슬라 시가총액 최악 1,240억 달러(주당 약 600달러), 최선 1.3조 달러(주당 약 3,000~4,000달러) 추정. 판매 전망: 2023년 기준 전기차 시장 약 2,600만 대 가정, 최악 시나리오 테슬라 점유율 11%(약 170만 대), 최선 300만 대 수준. 발표자 계산 최악 시나리오: 평균판매가격을 보수적으로 매년 5,000달러씩 인하, 자율주행 및 에너지 사업 매출을 대폭 할인해 2021년 매출 430억 달러, 2019년 240억 달러로 추정. 밸류에이션: 주가매출비율(P/S) 3배를 적용하고 발행주식수를 보수적으로 가정해 최악 시나리오 주가를 약 824달러로 산출. 보다 현실적으로는 주당 2,000~3,000달러, 강세 시 3,000달러 이상 가능성 언급. 리스크 및 조건: 자율주행(FSD) 실현이 불확실하며 전부 무산되는 경우도 가정. 계산은 대폭 할인된 보수적 가정에 기반함. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 주가 장기 상승 전망(장기 강세), 단기 구체 방향성 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
a high friends most of my viewers we are Tesla shareholders by owning a stop there is always a certain amount of risk associated with it so in this video I want to calculate the absolute worst case scenario if we were to invest in Tesla I spent many hours on this spreadsheet trying to give it as an accurate estimate from past data and massively discounting the numbers to reduce risk for my calculations so a highly appreciated if you hit the like button I help out a lot in the YouTube algorithm I want to start off by saying bankruptcy is out of the question a company doesn't go bankrupt because it's losing money a shots have to understand this a company goes bankrupt because there is no cash alone with a snap of his finger he can easily raise another two billion dollars without effort so Tesla's depth is only 10 billion while Ford and GM each having a depth exceeding about 100 billion dollars so bankruptcy is another question and let's move on most financial analysts they are crappy and very few in fact less than 5% - better than the index is proven so I always listen to them with a pinch of salt there is one analyst that stands out and they've been doing pretty well well Ark invest funds outperform the market and the founder Cathy wood and analyst Tasha kidney I hope I pronounced it right appears offered on CNBC and had a podcast with Elon Musk they calculate the best case and the worst case scenario for Tesla I'll put the links below to download the hawk later that they did and I also explained the numbers that they came up with and thereafter show you the numbers that I worked on when you click on the link this is the calculator that you can find data by aki invest just click it and download it eventually this spreadsheet over here we'll be shown and I'll explain all the numbers that I that they use and especially that I've done to calculate the worst case scenario so I invest now they expect about 26 million Evie to be so in twenty to a tree that is not unreasonable because you see every other automaker they are moving into making EVs and buy theater entry we should and it's expected six million EVs to be sold so in 2018 test ahead sir you know the seventeen percent of the market share and they actually predicted in a worst case scenario that Tesla's Lee who dropped eleven percent that means worst-case scenario other automakers make better EVs and the market share jobs to eleven percent okay so even in a worst case scenario they will still sell 1.7 million cars per year in Perdido entry and a book is narrow because they need to grow they need to have a sustainable path forward their best case scenario is three million cars sort in 333 so ESPE means average selling price so the average selling price the estimated to be about fifty thousand dollars a car and this is the revenue is going to be generated just by selling cars so how do you get the revenue is basically take this and this you get our revenue okay so every revenue for this is eighty five billion and best case scenario is 150 billion okay then moves on to more complicated stuff like cross margin gross profit EBIT ah and it goes on and on by do not cover all this I need you to understand is not all these complicated numbers is just you just need to understand the basic numbers for you to actually calculate your own what is your own best case and worst case scenario for Tesla so moving forward I know this is not really important to estimate because we can usually just take a percentage out there so if you move on to autonomy so this is where in 20 Chiqui scenario the expected the test RF economy means the cask and track Corral with your own soundtrack because the taxi fleet and account stop so this is the best-case scenario and the worst case is inventor entry nothing is done so zero all the way so after all the complicated calculations they came up with an estimate where the market cap of Tesla would be a hundred and twenty four billion dollars which is roughly double now which is around six hundred dollars per share worst case scenario in 2023 and the best-case scenario would be a 1.3 trillion dollar company which is like an epic company or Microsoft and if you translate that to per share this roughly about three thousand to four thousand dollars per share okay every number here you look at the right side reason up why you came up with these numbers and you can actually see the calculations done within this spreadsheet so you want to know more just download the spreadsheet and they can look at the numbers yourself so this is my spreadsheet and this is my worst case scenario I simply fight everything over here so it's easy for you to understand and I will explain every single part of it so over here is the mouth castle so this is the revenues coming from selling a car this is a revenue from selling the food sound driving where a car can take you from point A to point B okay this is the insurance that he had in case you forgot this you have Tesla insurance and the reason why I put 20 percent funnel over here is because I say I'm just doing the Pareto principle the 80/20 rule where 20% of your customers will buy in the extra thing it's like when you go to McDonald's there is roughly about thirty percent of people that will buy into a meal so this is a thirty percent so there is a McDonald's having a 30 percent panel we are having a 20 percent fan over here so 80/20 you know these numbers are very conservative you know it's way more than this alright anyway the next part is the energy business where they sell the where they sell the big batteries like the one in Australia South Australia Hans Diehl and solar roof and account stop so this is the Tesla's energy revenue all right so moving forward to the first section which I'm covering over here card sort if you look at my worst case scenario alright my worst case is worse then test then a key investor worst case see investor worst case is 1.7 million cars my worst case is 1.5 million cars by 2020 so the numbers I did over here is already highly discounted because I want to do the absolute worst case what happens to Tesla when they screw up massively this is every selling price per unit so every year I bring down the costs of a Tesla car so sometimes people buy a car Porter here what thousand some people buy for sixty thousand some people five or seventy thousand do know that they also have cast their one hundred thousand so I'm massively discounting the average selling price per car okay and every year moving forward I keep reducing the average selling price per car by five thousand you know that is a bit stupid but I'm just going to give the absolute worst-case scenario again so how did the rival revenue is basically ESP times castle done so this is me projecting for and do here 2025 next thing and I explained to you earlier why 20 percent ah no it's because operator principle and what happens is that twenty percent people were buying to your additional services okay so the numbers here why is this number here is I take the total castle right here and I times by point to he comes twenty percent so this is the amount people buying into force out driving and every selling price or for some time here he started in 2018 for about five thousand dollars 3:19 he moved it up to about seven thousand and assuming he doesn't move it up by much but I mean she doesn't move the food sauntering price by much and eventually you hit about it 9,000 for your information if you saw driving is a reality the thing is foods out driving may cost more than the car itself because when you have two self-driving and it goes in your car becomes it I said to you imagine your car generating like 30% a year to 40% a year from your investment the cost of food sound driving is really more than the cost of your kind self so again I'm massively discounting food sound driving and imagine that there is no improvement and full sound driving will never come true ok so these are my numbers and this is the reason for my average selling price for food sound driving again I multiply these two and I get a number over here the insurance panel I'm just gonna put it right across every car one thousand dollars per year I know he's cheap I don't care I'm again I'm massively discounting it and I'm massively discounting among people buying into Tesla insurance so this is our immunity generally this is almost redundant but I just put it there for the sake of putting it next the energy business revenue is the the thing is you need to look by this the number here twenty twenty-five okay the yellow must mention that eventually the energy business will be more than the Tesla cars revenue okay because the reason why for energy business would be a lot more because you are facing commercial customers like the one that is replacing kicker plants over the woody installed massive batteries imagine imagine building a gas power plant which is a kicker plant compared to putting batteries number one against power power plant ticker plant will take about three to four years to build okay a messy Bessy installation will take less than a year poop he goes there and no maintenance for the rest of her life as a life for the backseat and on top of that there is really two operating costs and the barber fish is cheaper than reading a gas power plant I think the cost of reading or gas pickup cause from like 500 billion no sorry five million to up to 1.5 billion so it's around that range right and imagine you just install like five hundred million dollars worth of tests on mega thanks there just by doing that alone and she saves a lot of people's money and I see massive orders coming in from there so anyway back to the spreadsheet I just don't go too much about that is a topic by itself if you look at this twenty in five I'm massively discounting it on math by fifty percent so this these numbers here a little bit dumb but I just want to be very safe in my calculations and the worst-case scenario for test large heads so again I add up all the numbers here I end up every other revenue so let's say I'll add up the energies revenue within children when you add up with food son driving and selling revenue for the cars and I come up with a number so let's say for example in 2021 the total revenue will be forty-three billion okay in this year 2019 the total revenue will be 24 billion which is again massively massively discounted I'm pretty sure you will exceed that he forbidden okay so you must understand that my my numbers here are like 20% to 30% discount from the worst-case scenario which is the worse worst case now so anybody moving forward to 2010 tree so these are my numbers over here why am i applying a price to sales ratio here of two three four five actually did a video on how to evaluate Tesla and I'll put a link up here but anyway why I use price to sales ratio is that you see there are many kinds of ways to evaluate companies like you see there is price to both dividend payout ratio you go on and on there is a lot of ways to identify to this PG that's price-to-book Nespresso sales there's so many ways to calculate what is obtained here the company the reason why I'm using price to sales this time is because you see a company like Tesla the company that would not be the align Amazon they use a lot of profits to put into infrastructure to expand so like what Warren Buffett's is also one of the widget and Internet companies is like let's say they make a billion dollars a year so it is completely makes 1 billion dollars in revenue how much would it be worth so today be worth 2 billion 3 billion so that is the kind of mindset that goes behind price to sales ratio so if Tesla makes 20 billion a year wouldn't it be extremely fair to make it work for 40 billion dollars so this is a rough kind so if you go to investopedia all these links that I have over here will be placed in the description below so all this if you look at investopedia ratios between one and two is generally considered good means what means is cheap ok the company's ship if if the producers ratio goes to above like 4 5 6 above 4 is starting to hit the limit that means is starting be fairly valued and you look at companies like Facebook the price to sales ratio went up to 13 before currently now around it and fall prey to sales ratio went up to about 6 to 7 and now currently I think around 4 so 4 is a very safe price to sales ratio ok but instead of using a safe practices ratio again I like to massively discount and I put a target on a fairly priced Tesla stock a practices ratio of tree so this how I got this price over here the stock price over here is I take the revenue multiplied by the price to sales ratio so for example this is a 10 you one bill and ok let's take a look at 22 entry ok because I'm a compare with ARC invest so 22 entry our estimate tests are having a 77 billion dollar revenue so how I come over priced your tree is I take 77 billion multiply my tree because I explain what price ratio is and after that I will divide by the number of outstanding shares so at a point I'm I estimated that there will be 10 amount outstanding shares available and I'll divide out where do you find outstanding shares I'll put a link in the description below again but it's over here over here let me see so you see a via the amount outstanding shares available so as they are increasing because there are actual issue inches to acquire people which is very good I don't explain too much about that again but so these are the numbers for outstanding shares and over here I divided by the estimated about estimated outstanding chef begin afternoon chefs highly discounted for so in my worst case scenario worst-case scenario fatty value that slashes in 32gb work $1200 and if the company is like messy pair like this year we had a price of about 200 dollars which was about price ratio to the worst case in a row everything comes falling down again entry to entry price per share will be eight hundred and twenty four dollars okay so this is the numbers I came up with is really massively distorted form if you want to be more accurate I believe that infinitely treat the share price should be worth at least about two to three thousand dollars that is from my average case narrow and if we are really bullish on test large chest I think the shares will exceed three thousand dollars I really hope you find these calculations useful I'll put all these links that I have up here in the link in the description below I hope you liked this video you learn something Tammy smash the like button it goes a long way in a YouTube algorithm again invest safe
Comments 0