저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 상반기 강세장 이후 하반기는 더 어려울 것이며, 밸류에이션이 높아 조정 가능성이 크다는 견해. 시장 전반: 미국(S&P·나스닥)과 인도가 상반기 강세였고 한국도 강했음. 그러나 하반기는 더 도전적일 것으로 봄. 특정 악재보다 전반적 고평가가 주된 우려. 밸류에이션: 스위스·일본 등 채권은 극단적 고평가(일부 마이너스 금리), 우량 기업 주식도 비쌈. 페이스북·아마존·넷플릭스·구글(FANG) 및 반도체 관련주가 2009년 저점 이후 크게 올라 지속 가능성에 의문. 자금이 소수 종목에서 빠져 다른 그룹으로 이동할 수 있음. 미국 조정 전망: 짐 로저스의 40~50% 폭락 전망에 대해, 원칙적으로 동의하면서 저평가 수준은 현재보다 40~50% 낮은 수준이라고 언급. 시장이 10% 하락해도 연준 등 중앙은행이 금리 인상을 재고하고 20% 하락 시 추가 돈 풀기(양적완화)가 나올 것으로 봄. 현재 시장은 과대평가 쪽에 더 가깝다고 판단. 인도: 밸류에이션이 싸지 않고 과거 2만5천 수준보다 비싸다고 평가. 인도 주식은 당장 서두를 필요 없음. 대도시 부동산은 비싸나 지방과 휴양지 부동산에 기회. 은행·보험은 장기적으로 유망하나 과대평가는 아님. 50배 PER 소비재는 이미 충분히 반영. 미국 경제: 심리(주식·기업)는 낙관적이나 실물지표는 약함. 임금 상승 제한적, 고임금 아닌 저임금 일자리 중심 고용 회복, 소비·자동차 판매 약화, 주택시장 정체. 장기 성장률 연 2% 수준 전망. 글로벌 신용 거품이 여전히 큼. 투자 조언: 현금 비중이 높은 투자자가 많아(본인 약 20%, 지인 자산가 40%) 하락 시 완충 역할 가능. 다만 레버리지 부채가 많은 사람들은 취약하므로 신용거래로 과도하게 매매하지 말 것, 마진콜 위험 주의.
다듬은 글
so swag Atacama is Hospice krishna raja raja baath he has my majora here Omar salsa Johnny money investment guru mark favors rune samba 30 mark thanks for joining us at Z business and it's a pleasure having you on the show good to see you good to see you smiling it seems that the doom is away at least a big you hear that mark yes what is the question none of my question was that live I mean it's good to see you smiling it seems that the doom is away for some time at least well depends I think the second half of the year will be more difficult for markets because we had really very strong markets in the first half the S&P is up the Nasdaq is up strongly in the US as you know India was a very strong performer actually the best performer in Asia in dollar terms and also countries like Korea which is surprising given the potential problems had to do could occur in North Korea but anyway markets have been very strong and I think the second half will be more challenging but mark at this point if you have to pinpoint any one factor which is causing maximum I would say uneasiness or maximum concern for you which would that be is it slowing down of China is it the geopolitical tension that is going on is it the way mr.
Trump is approaching you know the North Korea situation I mean which is your biggest worry at this point will usually have not terribly worried about markets and orient for me it doesn't really matter where they take a whop strongly or they move side words so they go down but my concern is simply that if you look around the world there is very little that is really good value all financial markets bonds are in the sky especially near in Switzerland Japan you have negative bond yields and on the 10 years and equity valuations the good companies are very expensive so if you look at say the Fang stocks Facebook Amazon Netflix Google's and related stock semiconductors they're all in the sky a big moves since the lows in 2009 and the question is can they alone continue to support the market or will they go down in other words money flowing out of these few stocks and the money then flows into maybe other groups and so this is a not the concern of mine but it's an observation that valuations of very high I look around Asia I think Asian valuations are reasonable but they're not cheap they're nowhere as low as they were in 2009 they're nowhere as low as they were in 2003 or in 2001 so the markets have discounted a lot of good news and we have to realize we are now more than eight years into an economic expansion the expansion began in June 2009 and the bull market started in March 2009 so in a weird by historical standards in a very old bull market that's true so in fact of you know a couple of days back mark we spoke to Jim Rogers and he sounded quite worried about the kind of run-up that across the globe had happened and he almost predicted you know 40 50 percent drop in the US markets valuation and obviously which which would be followed by other markets as well do you share that kind of pessimism do you feel that there is a possibility of US markets tanking by 40 50 percent yes but I'd like to point out in my view the Federal Reserve and other central banks if they see markets drop even 10 percent they will have second thoughts about increasing interest rates 10 percent today would be 250 40s and B points if it dropped 20 percent we're talking about 500 s and B points that will scare central banks and I think that there would be more money printing exactly what the additional money printing will do is not sure maybe it won't lift stocks to new highs but at least it will temporary support them so yes I think that reasonable valuation or low valuations would be 40 to 50 percent lower than they are now and markets become overvalued and then they become undervalued I think we are closer to over valuation than under valuation so mark if you look at markets like India you know we are facing the similar sort of situation where the valuations are not really cheap there is also or to some extent leadership crisis in terms of who will lead the markets from here and then obviously you know then we have reforms happening on the other hand like maybe you know the rollout of GST and and the whole NPA battle that the moody government is trying to wage against the non-performing assets in the banking system keeping all this in mind do you suspect Indian markets also to follow the u.s.
way and see massive correction in the near future or maybe this year the indian market is not closely correlated to international markets and depends very much from domestic liquidity in india and on economic performance in india but obviously the S&P dropped 20% i think that a lot of foreign investors would be selling indian shares as well and so everything is to some extent correlated to the S&P nowadays the SP drops 20 points the next day Asia tends to be weaker not all markets but it has the tendency to be weaker Europe tends to be we go and so when markets go down they all go down with very very few exceptions so most of the pockets go up it's like an advanced decline line among international markets that's so mark last time when we spoke we were more positive on Indian real estate then on Indian equities are you still in that similar set of mind yes I still think that in India in the major cities real estate is probably very expensive pricey but in the countryside and as you know there is an emerging class of people in India that can afford to travel and they can afford to eventually have second homes and so some reason resorts in India there in my view there are still great property opportunities but now within the fiscal because you know if you look at the Indian index so the Indian market the highest voltage is actually assigned to the financial space and the banks what is your view on the banks in India I think that over time more and more people will use banks and more and more people will you insurance company so these are two sectors that are longer-term attractive and as in the banks are not necessarily overvalued I think some consumer stocks that sell at 50 times earnings are fully priced but they've been selling at 50 times earnings for years now and they grow and so the stock still continued to perform well but I would not necessarily rush into Indian stocks at the present time I think they are fully valued they may become overvalued and as you know I was quite positive about India when the index was around 25,000 so here at this level I'm saying that it's not an under valuation anymore and that the economic performance hasn't been that great has been better than say in Western Europe and better than in the US but it hasn't been that great right coming back to US economy mark I mean what kind of mismatch do you observe between the real fundamental US economy and what is reflecting in the prices in the equity market in u.s.
well I think that the sentiment both of equity investors and business sentiment is quite optimistic whereas the economic statistics that have been published recently and you know you have to look at the economic statistics in every country with a grain of salt because there are a lot of adjustments and distortions and the government controls the statistical offices so they always publish what suits them and but in general the realities that wages aren't going up much and that employment has picked up but not in high paying jobs in low paying jobs and if you look at consumption consumption is relatively weak automobile sales are weakening they're not collapsing but they're weakening and the housing market is steady but it's not rising much and so I think that if we analyze clearly the situation at very best long-term the u.s.
can grow at maybe 2% per annum at very best I don't think they'll see much more gross than that first of all we have to understand we still have a huge credit bubble with us globally most of the recovery since 2009 has been financed by credit and by money printing and by fiscal expenditures and so under these conditions I don't see very strong economic growth right one last question to you mark now you know like keeping the so-called correction or the drop in the US markets and the global markets in mind which could be to that you know 40 50 percent and like you mentioned it would test the nerves of Fed and other global central bankers can we expect in the second half of this year or maybe only next calendar you're more liquidity sloshing around global markets and another round of quantitative easing going on well that is a good question when I talk to investors around the globe and I meet fairly sophisticated investors that look after family money and support the reason you should not be overly bearish is that there is actually a lot of cash around you know this bull market hasn't produced the euphoria that usually a bull market produces that goes up so much there is some euphoria among some people but in general there is still quite a lot of cash on the sidelines say you look at me maybe 20% of my money is in cash and if the markets dropped to a reasonable valuation I will put that cash to work and I've visited the other day a very substantial family of 13 billion dollars there are just two families that are there the wealthy people in the u.s.
they are 40% in cash and another friend of mine is also a wealthy American he is also 40% in cash so I have to say that may provide some cushion on the downside for having said that we also have huge debts some people have the cash and some people have the dates and the people who is credit I think they're quite vulnerable so I would essentially if I were an investor not over trade and trade on credit because otherwise you could get to margin calls absolutely all right mark thank you so much for joining us pleasure having you thank you thank you so much
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