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But because it took so long, it isn't going to stop at 5,000. I now have a much higher target, because when I was predicting $5,000 gold in 2011, 2012, I had assumed that other things would have happened to have gotten the price up that high, which haven't happened yet. We haven't really had a dollar crisis.
We haven't had a sovereign debt crisis. So, that's still in our future. So, it's still going to happen. But, it just means when it does, gold is going to be a lot higher than 5,000. I don't like know where it's going to peak out. I mean, it 15,000 20,000. I mean, I I I think 10,000 is pretty much a lock over the next few years.
Um, but, you know, it could go a lot higher. It just depends on how the the scenario plays out with the dollar and the bond market. And as it happens, it's done better than the stock market. So, to the extent that somebody didn't buy the US stock market and they bought gold instead, they're better off.
One of the most contentious predictions in the financial sector is set in motion by a growing wave of monetary expansion and increasing budgetary hardship. Silver fluctuates wildly as investors struggle to understand inflation, interest rates, and currency risk, while gold is pushing toward previously unthinkable levels.
Peter Schiff presents a theory in which rising prices for precious metals are rational outcomes of long-standing structural imbalances within the global monetary system rather than speculative excess. Schiff argues that the growing weight of US debt, ongoing budget deficits, and the precarious position of the US dollar in international trade are the real factors driving gold's long-term trajectory rather than transient market emotion or short-term headlines.
According to him, a sharp increase in the price of gold would not be a shock, but rather a gradual response to years of lacks monetary policy and artificially low interest rates. Measuring financial markets in gold instead of dollars is a key component of his case. Schiff often suggests that nominal stock market highs might conceal diminishing purchasing power by comparing the Dow Jones Industrial Average valued in ounces of gold.
. I was just curious in like your perspective on that. Yeah, well, I mean, he's trying to point to something that looks like it's good. So he's using the stock market as kind of a report card on the efficacy of his policies and he's making a big deal about 50,000. Well, first of all, when he was inaugurated, the Dow was 44,000.
So it's not that much higher. It's been over a year and it's only up 6,000. I mean, but 12%. I mean, you know, the stock market was going up pretty much every year that Biden was president. We kept hitting record highs under Biden. You know, we got to 40,000 under Biden. Um, and Trump said we had the worst economy in the world back then.
So, the mainstream media is starting to uh hop on this train as well. Uh, when gold's at 5,000 instead of when it was at, you know, 1,600, you know. Yeah. you know, when I was making $5,000 gold predictions, you know, back in 2011, 12,3 when gold was like 1,200,500. Not only were they making fun of me, but they were accusing me of, you know, just, you know, just trying to scare people into buying gold, that I was just a gold salesman, and I didn't even believe it myself, and that I should, you know, really be ashamed of myself because I'm telling people to buy gold, right, when they could be buying the stock market, and they're going to lose money because they're missing out on the stock market.
when I never told people to exclusively own gold. I just said own some gold, right? I I said don't not own it. It's going to go up. And as it happens, it's done better than the stock market. So to the extent that somebody didn't buy the US stock market and they bought gold instead, they're better off.
But you know they never used to attack people for you know who were in the stock market who managed you know they were brokers or asset managers and they would come on and they would talk their book and nobody ever attacked them. is saying, "Hey, come on. You you know, you you you're just saying that because that's your business, right?
You you're just you're just pumping stocks because you want people to buy, you know, they they all all of the criticism uh was was was reserved for me because I was saying buy gold, something they knew nothing about and they didn't care about it." Well, clearly they should have because gold has done better than the stock market for 25 years, 26 years.
And there's a reason for that. I mean, I knew why the price of gold was going to go up. It wasn't just some random thing. And I I I wasn't telling people to buy gold because I sold gold. I got into the gold business because I thought people should own it. And I saw other companies were overcharging people for gold.
And so I I start set up my own company, Shift Gold, so that people wouldn't get ripped off when they bought gold. But years before I was selling gold, I was still telling people to buy it because I thought they needed to own it. I was still, you know, stock broker. Uh but I thought people needed to own gold.
Yeah. Now I notice that when people come on and they say, "Oh, $7,000, $8,000 gold, whatever." I mean, yeah, they don't get laughed at. Uh they don't get made fun of. Meanwhile, you know, my strategy is doing great. Uh you know, people who invested in in gold stocks now over the last 10 years have done better than the S&P.
You know, I've had a big waiting in gold and silver stocks and now over 10ear time frame. Now, that wasn't true two years ago. You know, we were way behind two years ago, but in the last two years, we caught up and then passed them. And I think that this trend is going to continue. So, I think over the next several years, people who are following a mainstream US focused approach are going to fall further and further behind people who are following my strategy, which is gold and silver stocks, pre physical precious metals, but also non US stocks, foreign stocks, emerging markets, resource type investments.
This is what's going to be making money uh for many many years to come. The stuff that worked in the past isn't going to work and not and is not working in the present and is going to work even worse in the future. When gold moves near $5,000, it is considered the establishment of a new long-term support zone rather than a market high.
The fact that prices continue to rise above that level indicates robust underlying demand and rising investor confidence. Rather than indicating fatigue, these recurring recoveries are seen as evidence that buyers are regularly coming in. Silver is said to be more erratic with steep declines followed by swift recoveries.
Nonetheless, in the latter phases of a commodity bull market, these significant price fluctuations, even those of $10 or more, are regarded as typical. This volatility is viewed as a component of a larger upward trend rather than a sign of weakness. Because of this, the recommended approach is straightforward.
Rather than attempting to time the market precisely, buy gradually during pullbacks. Another significant component of this view is mining stocks. They are still thought to be inexpensive when compared to the prices of gold and silver despite their substantial increase. Valuations of mining companies are kept relatively low since many investors are still cautious and believe that metal prices will eventually decline.
. Well, you know, they still want to say, "Well, you know, I was too early, right? I mean, I was predicting, you know, I didn't say it was going to take 12 years to get to 5,000, which is true, right? I didn't think it would take this long. It it in in in hindsight, yeah, I mean, I'm surprised that it took until, you know, 2026 for gold to get to 5,000.
But because it took so long, it isn't going to stop at 5,000. I now have a much higher target because when I was predicting $5,000 gold in 2011 2012, I had assumed that other things would have happened to have gotten the price up that high, which haven't happened yet. We haven't really had a dollar crisis.
We haven't had a sovereign debt crisis. So, that's still in our future. So, it's still going to happen, but it just means what it does, gold is going to be a lot higher than 5,000. Mhm. So you said you said we kicked the can we kicked the can down the road for a lot longer than I thought at back then.
Back then, you know. Yeah. Yeah. So you said you have a higher target. So just curious what what what are you thinking for gold in this in this bull cycle? Well, you know, I don't like know where it's going to peak out. I mean it 15,000 20,000. I mean I I think 10,000 is pretty much a lock over the next few years.
Um, but you know, it could go a lot higher. It just depends on how the the scenario plays out with the dollar and the bond market. But, you know, I would not be surprised. You know, we're 10 ounces of gold. As I said, the Dow is worth 10 ounces of gold. It was worth over 40 25 years ago. I think it's pretty much almost a sure thing that we're going to go down to five.
You know the record low for the Dow priced in gold is around 1 one and that happened twice in 1932 and 1980. Now if the Dow and gold are 1 one you know the Dow's 50,000. I mean if the if the Dow just stays here then gold goes to 50,000 right now. The Dow could crash the Dow could go to 20,000 and gold can go to 20,000 that's still one to one.
But if we just get to five to one, which I think is a very realistic number, um well, you know, if the Dow stays where it is at 50,000, gold needs to go to 10,000. And now now it's 5 to1. Um but you know, if the Dow rises, then you know, gold's got to be higher than 10,000 to get, you know, if Trump is if Trump is right and the Dow goes to 100,000, well then gold's got to go to 20,000 to get five five to one.
Yeah. Uh, but I I think we're going to be at least 5 to one, but I think it's going to be a lot lower. I think we're going to get close to 1 one. Maybe not exactly, but maybe below 2:1, you know, before before it bottoms out. And my my thinking would be if you could buy the Dow Jones for less than 2 ounces of gold, you should do it.
You're probably getting a really good deal. But right now at 10 ounces of gold, I still think the US stock market's overpriced. So investors are not paying up to own AM. So, it's it's actually a pretty good time to be buying it. Um because it's normally a lot more expensive relative to its peers. But I I I think that, you know, their earnings are going to keep on growing because gold's not going to stop rising at 5,000.
It's going to 6,000. It's going to 7,000. You know, it's going higher. And and so their earnings are going to keep on growing. Um that's not the case. you know, a lot of other companies, you know, that have much higher valuations don't have that kind of uh earnings growth that you've got in in in the gold mining space.
Yeah. Peter Schiff considers the length of time it took for gold to hit the $5,000 mark. He acknowledges that he did not anticipate that gold would reach $5,000 until 2026 when he first made the prediction in 2011 and 2012. He clarifies though that the protracted weight actually makes him more optimistic.
The explanation is straightforward. Many of the significant economic issues he predicted would drive gold to $5,000, such as severe currency crisis or a national debt crisis, have not yet materialized. These risks, in his opinion, were delayed rather than removed. The final adjustment may be significantly larger because the system has kicked the can down the road for so long.
Because of this, he now thinks that gold prices could rise much higher than $5,000. Shift says he dislikes making precise predictions about where gold will peak in this bull cycle. Nevertheless, he says it's quite likely that gold will reach $10,000 in the coming years and depending on the US dollar and bond market heights like $15,000 or even $20,000 might occur.
Additionally, he talks about gold mining corporations. He contends that the prospect of significantly higher gold prices is still not fully priced in by many investors. Because of this, several mining equities continue to be fairly valued in relation to their prospective rise in earnings. Profits for mining companies may continue to rise if gold continues to rise to $6,000, $7,000, and higher. .
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