Should You Buy AMD Stock Before August 5? | AMD Stock Analysis

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AMD 2025년 2분기 실적 발표(8/5) 전 매수 여부를 다룸. 매출 36% 증가(74억 달러), 데이터센터 부문 57% 성장이 긍정 요인이나 게이밍 -30%, 임베디드 -3%는 약점. 자체 DCF 적정가 124달러 대비 현재가 162달러로 고평가, 선행 PER 39배(연중 최고). 알파벳의 AI 데이터센터 투자 증액 소식은 호재. 결론적으로 실적 발표 전 매수는 비추천, 발표 후 재평가 권고.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. AMD Tuesday, August 5th, 2025, and investors are asking me if they should buy AMD stock before it announces these quarterly result for from AMD in the upcoming release. I'll also calculates a fair value for AMD shares. Of course, I've had AMD stock rated as one of the best nine stocks to buy in 2025.

02. Remember to begin 2025 in January, January 1st to be precise. I told you all that AMD would be an excellent stock to own this year and that's proven correct. AMD stock is already up over 30% year-to date in 2025 and there are still several months remaining in the year. So, I'm glad that stock pick is working out so far.

03. But what do I feel about AMD stock now? I'll share with you my updated my updated information, my updated analysis right here. , in its latest quarterly earnings release, AMD reported solid increases across the board. Revenue was up by 36% year-over-year to $7.4 billion. operating income was up a lot more than that, over 2,000%.

04. Given that it was comparing to an easy uh quarter for last year where it only generated 36 million in operating income, its operating income jumped to more normalized levels for AMD up to 86 million with an operating profit margin of 11%. Now 11% is still a relatively low operating profit margin for AMD.

05. This company can regularly and consistently uh deliver operating profit margins closer to 30%. Uh right now it's uh depressed because it's still recovering from cyclical bottoms. Remember uh two out of its four segments are performing well. The other two are still recovering. So that's why its operating income is still not at levels that uh would suggest the company operating uh uh firing on all cylinders.

06. And one of the segments that's absolutely thriving is the data center segment. This is the segment that Nvidia is thriving inside. This is where companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are spending hundreds of billions of dollars building these data centers optimized for AI. And inside those data centers, they're using GPUs from companies like AMD, but more often from Nvidia, which boasts a 90 re uh an estimated 90% market share in that category.

07. Still, the category is growing so quickly that AMD is carving out a nice market share. Its data center segment revenue total 3.7 billion in the most recent quarter, driven by a 57% increase year-over-year. Remember AMD not only sells GPUs, the latest generation AMD Instinct GPUs, but AMD also has CPUs, it's selling into that data center segment, and the CPU segment specifically is gaining a lot of market share, taking it away from Intel in this category.

08. Client and gaming segment revenue in the quarter was also up by 28% year-over-year. client revenue jumped by 68% where gaming revenue was down by 30%. So gaming is uh one of the two segments that's struggling down 30% year-over-year. The other segment that's struggling is the embedded segment which is down 3% year-over-year.

09. So AMD's gaming business not doing as well. The gaming consoles it finds itself inside or not selling as well. They're long in the tooth now. They've been out for several several years and the newer generation gaming models with AMD included inside are not expected anytime soon. So this segment management is a little bit concerned about.

10. But thankfully for investors, the business now consists of a larger percentage coming from the data center segment. Roughly 50% of its revenue is coming from this segment which is estimated to grow at a much faster rate than the rest of the business overall. So now let me AMD stock. And the intrinsic value per share I calculated for AMD is $124 per share.

11. The current market price after soaring over 34% this year is at $162. So the market price has increased by so much it has surpassed my intrinsic value calculations for AMD shares. Coming into 2025, was pointing to a significantly undervalued stock. Now that the price has increased by so much so quickly, the stock price is looking a little bit stretched.

12. But I also like t. And my preferred data source for these valuation charts is fiscal.ai. There's a link in the description for their services. If you're interested, they have charts like these and other really cool charts with segment specific information that's unavailable anywhere else. They save me so much time and provide so much insight.

13. Uh I really like their services. You can get a discount for using my link and measuring AMD on a forward price to earnings basis. The stock price is also looking stretched. It's at the highest valuation all year at a forward PE of 39. So the valuation is getting stretched whether I look at the company on a forward PE basis or whether I look at it on my discounted cash flow basis.

14. Still this business has excellent prospects both in the near-term and the medium term. The data center segment optimized for artificial intelligence is booming and we just got news from Alphabet this week, right? I just read the entire conference call transcript from Alphabet this morning. The company released their financial results yesterday after the stock markets closed.

15. And Alphabet actually said that they're planning to spend an extra $10 billion this year on data centers optimized for AI. Well, I should say what they actually said is they're going to increase their capital expenditures by $10 billion, but within their capital expenditures, they said that the vast majority of that spending is going towards data centers and servers.

16. And AMD plays a large role in that category. Even if it's not going to win the contracts from Alphabet specifically, the fact that the industry is increasing its spending plans ahead of what was already a big increase when they first made their plans, investors were shocked at how large these numbers were for the data centers and and capital expenditures for companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

17. Those numbers were already massive. And the first to report earnings out of those companies I highlighted is Alphabet. And already Alphabet has raised the target for how much they're planning to spend. So that bodess really really well for AMD and Nvidia stock investors that already one of the hyperscalers is increasing the amount they plan to spend on cap on capital expenditures.

18. All that being said, do I think you should be buying AMD stock ahead of earnings? I would say no. I would say the valuation is already incorporating a lot of this positive news. Uh that's why you see the valuation is now at a forward PE of 39, the highest it's been all year. Stock price is up over 34%.

19. So a lot of the momentum is already incorporated in the stock price. So if you're interested in AMD stock, I would say I would suggest to wait until after earnings. And of course, I will have an earnings review, an earnings analysis, and I'll let you know what I think about the company after the earnings release.

20. That way, you lower your risk and you get the company, even if the price is higher after earnings, you'll be getting a company with lower risk, which means which could mean you're still better off in that situation. Even if you're paying a higher price, if you're getting a lower risk, right? Because all else being equal, we should as investors prefer lower risk than higher risk, right?

21. We would all hate to see our money evaporate. We would hate to see our our investment decline. So, if we can lower the chances of that, I think we should all take it. And this is one situation where I think that uh the risk to the downside is more than the risk to the upsid.