저자: HarryDent · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 2022년 대폭락(S&P500 약 87%, 2023년 후반 바닥 가능성)을 주장하는 해리 덴트 발언을 소개하며, 누구도 폭락 시점을 정확히 예측할 수 없으니 좋은 기업 보유를 권한다. 시장 상황: 최근 성장주(에트시, 콜, 팔란티어 등)가 큰 폭으로 하락했고, 인플레이션·금리·공급망 우려로 기관이 가치주로 이동하는 중이라고 설명. 마이클 버리·하워드 막스 13F: 버리는 2021년 3분기 보유 종목을 대거 매도했고, 막스도 일부 매도해 기술주 폭락 신호로 해석됨. 두 사람의 포지션 변화가 폭락 예고일 수 있다는 언급. 중국 시장: 중국 주식이 101에서 37로 약 63% 하락, 텐센트·징둥·알리바바 등 아시아 우량주도 큰 폭 하락. 덴트 주장: 1929·2000년 거품 붕괴 사례를 근거로 이번 하락은 80~90%, 첫 급락은 2.6개월 내 40~55%, S&P500은 약 87% 하락 가능성, 2023년 말쯤 투자 기회. 덴트 과거 적중률 비판: 2021년 1월 고점, 4월 40% 폭락, 6월 붕괴 예측이 빗나갔다는 지적. 2009년 이후 공포 속 매수 기회를 놓친다는 반론. 덴트 발언 근거: 2021년 11월 22일 나스닥 고점, S&P500도 고점 가능성, 소형주·비트코인·회사채가 먼저 꺾이는 연속 고점 패턴이라는 설명. 아마존·구글·페이스북·마이크로소프트: 고평가이나 거품 영역은 아니라고 봄. 정부 유동성 공급 지속과 인플레이션 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망(영상 진행자 의견): 폭락 예측은 참고만 하고 강한 재무의 우량 기업을 보유하며, 2022년은 2021년만큼의 수익률이 나오지 않을 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome to just invest today and in today's video we are talking about a stock market crash of 90 this guy named harry denson there's going to be a crash of 90 in the market but before we really get into that like this video subscribe to my channel i'm always gonna provide you with so much content so click it click it click it so before we get into this video i'm gonna listen to what he says and let's go over what he says and what he's thinking about the stock market he's saying it's gonna crash 90 damn percent that is crazy and this is what he's preparing for but let's realize what happened before this like is michael bury the best investor ever like think about what's happening in the market right now look at my stocks etsy all the way from 296 dollars 44 all the way to 163 i've been getting killed on etsy even though i sold some of my position five another position i love all 236 with the highest 26 percent down c limited can you believe c 355 all the way to 175 50 percent haircut mellie we're talking about melody right here melee has crashed 40 so you just seen all these gross dogs like even palantir all of these gross stocks been getting killed in the market this is what's been happening in the market people are afraid of inflation people are afraid of interest rates people are afraid of the supply chain issues people are moving all of their money and going into value companies they're not looking at growth anymore they're just saying growth sucks we don't know if they're gonna start producing profit eventually or making money we're getting the hell out of here because we don't know what's gonna happen with interest rate we don't know what the fed's gonna do they're gonna stop buying bonds and mortgage-backed securities and equities they're gonna stop buying and printing money sooner or later so get the hell into value stocks that i know my money is secure so that's what's happening in the market but remember what happened with michael bury are we did we forget what happened with him guys he saw out he sold out of eight stocks completely a hundred percent before this huge crash is happening in q3 2021.
can you imagine that like how did he it's almost like he just predicted this stuff like think about it like he just predicted like look at all the stocks hundred percent sold hundred percent 100 100 percent 100 100 100 100 and he had big positions 13 position is not like small 18 in discovery that's not small reduced 68 reduced 53 so he only has weight one two three four five six holdings now so this is what michael berry has done and we know michael burr is one of the best predictors of these crashes and he usually just sells early or he kind of hedges his bets really like almost perfectly so that's that might be a telltale sign who knows look what howard mark's done look how many of the positions he sold in the third quarter before this huge tech crash that we're seeing like it's honestly crazy what these kind of macro type investors like they're kind of macro micro type investors and this is what they're seeing in the market they're seeing a huge crash from this huge boom because they're like thinking how is this boom happening when the economic times are not thriving like there's the boom the stock market but the the economic times is not supporting that boom like gdp is down like um jobs are down jobs there but people are not trying to work more retirement more supply chain issues higher inflation so it's just like it's not equaling up in their minds and remember too the chinese market has already crashed look at this from 101 all the way down to 37.
that's a 63 haircut man that is crazy when you really think about a 63 haircut in the price and these are the best asian companies the best companies in the asian stock market like tencent jd.com baba billy billy we have all of these stuff banned so just looking at that you can see why people are predicting a bigger crash because the boom has been going crazy since like 2009 and this has to be a boom and a bust there has to be a bus sometimes even though the march bus happened but it wasn't big enough it didn't sustain itself it just reversed really quickly so do you agree with this a 90 percent crash so let's listen to this video a major this is going to be the biggest crash the biggest downturn of your lifetime is what i'm saying and most of it's going to happen probably in 2022.
so before so before we really get into this so he's saying this is to be the biggest crash and you got to think about the great depression times like the market went down like 80 90 percent so he's saying it's going to rival that so if it really rivals that like what do you think these hedge funds institutions are thinking i honestly think they're thinking the same thing like in my mind the things that they're doing in the market just moving all that institution money to value it's like unprecedented right now it's just like you you just don't see it like that like every single institution moving their money like in like sequence so it's like they're predicting it themselves but who knows because they don't want to get caught in the tech crash in that financial crisis crash and uh they don't want to get caught in that so they're just moving their money like how big in terms of percentage okay so so first of all i i've studied every major bubble in history and the first press i'm just saying that first when the bubble finally gives okay like in 1929 you know or in 2000 in may of 2000 when it first cracked the first crash averages 46 in just 2.6 months now when a major bubble of this magnitude like 1929 or 2000 or now 2021 crashes the whole crash tends to be about 80 to 90 percent 1929 wasn't down 89 percent 78 the nas i mean i'm sorry in 2000 2002 crashed the nasdaq was down 78 i'm saying stocks in general in this crash will be closer to the 29 to 32 craft i'm estimating 87 for the s p 500 and maybe slightly higher than that back so this is not something to sit through and just rebalance his financial advisor say yeah you have to get out of the way of this and then we will have the buy opportunity in investment of a lifetime in around late 2023 or so okay so you have to remember this when he's staying all this you got to remember no one can predict the market crash like you have to think of not even michael bury not howard marx not ray dalio no one can predict when the crash is coming they can have an estimate they can think what they want to think because remember back in like 2018 17 people were saying the exact same thing there's going to be a market crash the the market has been going on for too long and look what happened there's still a boom for like another three four years so like you can't predict the crash no one can predict it so even though he's saying these things you just have to take it as a grain of salt even though you know you might be right you might be wrong you still have to take it as a grain of salt because no one can predict the crash that's why your safest bet and anytime someone predicts this at any time you think there's a top is to just to buy good companies hold good companies that are have strong balance sheets that can endure during any economic time that can raise their prices that have competitive advantage because think about it they're gonna recover as soon as the company they're gonna recover because the company's gonna get better no matter what happens in the market no matter what the stock is gonna do because in the real world people are still gonna buy iphone still people are gonna still use google's in the real world people are still gonna use facebook so it doesn't really matter what happens in the stock market it will provide you with opportunities if it does happen but you can still even if you you have the stock you own it right now and you didn't get out it doesn't matter because they're going to recover the the american economy the canadian economy the european economy they're good there's all gonna bubble boom right back up so even though he's saying this you still gotta think about that so a very deep and steep decline of about 40 plus over two months periods crash the whole crash is going to be 80 to 90 right well but harry the last time you were in kikko you told my colleague david lynn that you expected the stock market peak in january of 2021 and then a major crash much like what you're describing now by april of 2021 you're going for a 40 crash by april event said that june would be when the markets would collapse obviously very hard to time the markets but yes it is extremely hard the time something see and there you go he was wrong already so like how many times has this guy made these predictions can you imagine if he made any of these predictions from like 2009 and now he was wrong the whole way and if he didn't have money in the market he's saying get all your money out of the market can you imagine getting your money out of the market in 2009 10 11 12 and everyone was still scared in 2008 people were afraid to put their money back in because of what happened but it was a perfect time to put your money in but everyone was scared and no one really wanted to put their money instead of only the people that knew about investment and knew how to think about the markets put their money back in and you would have missed 2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.
you would have missed all of that if you listen to a guy like this is advice to just take all your money out now thinking that the market will crash this year 100 for sure who knows right not natural i predicted the 2007 top 20 years before it happened that was a natural boom driven by real consumers and investors you've got governments fighting this crash and so it is impossible to predict exactly what's happening i am telling you and i will stand by this we are going to see and i think it's going to happen in 2022 you cannot tell exactly but the signs are recently what we've seen is we've seen one index from from the corporate bonds to to then the uh the small caps and in bitcoin and then the uh the the nasdaq peaked in november 22nd and and it looks to me like the s p could have peaked basically yesterday so we see the succession of peaks down into a narrow hour or more large cap that's a classic long term top that's why i'm saying it's likely now but there is no way to tell us until it happens but i am warning people with unbelievable analysis and history of every bubble major bubble the last 150 years that first crash will be 40 to 55 so fast you will not see it so if you wait to see if i'm right and take that risk you're going to be hit very very hard and history is very clear about that no exceptions to that and that's so true a lot of people are actually getting out of the small cap stocks you see bitcoin price kind of there's a large movement in bitcoin you see everyone putting their money in the value uh the value stocks and all the large cap s p stocks which does create a mini bubble if everyone keeps putting all their money in their safest bet that's not going to provide a good return but when you really think about it some of these stocks like google i think facebook those are undervalued still in my opinion so i don't think we're there yet with the s p's best stocks like google facebook even amazon microsoft they're kind of high valuations but not to the point where i think it's in bubble territory and at risk of just collapsing 40 50 percent but who knows what happens in this market this guy's predict this guy is predicting a lot we see michael burrow you see how remarks you hear ray dalio kind of opening your eyes to the potential of a crash so just think about it think about what you're gonna do with your money like i still have my money in the market i'm not afraid of this because i know i own good companies that are gonna survive these times survive what's gonna happen in the market no matter if it goes up goes down boom or bust we know the government is keeping the money supplied in the market you know they're gonna take it out eventually they're gonna have to take it out or inflation's gonna go crazy so it's gonna be a crazy year this year man who knows what's gonna happen i don't think we're gonna see the same returns like the snp went up like 24 like it was crazy for uh 2021 man so in 2022 we don't know what we're gonna predict but man it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens this year so guys tell me what you think what are you doing with your money man are you investing it are you keeping it on the sideline are you preparing for a crash what are you doing man so guys please like this video subscribe to my channel i'm always providing you with good content peace
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