저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 11월 재무부가 연준의 5개 긴급 대출 프로그램(지방채·회사채·TALF·메인스트리트) 연장을 거부한 것을 분석. 4개 채권 프로그램은 시장이 정상 기능해 불필요해졌고 실제 사용액은 약 250억 달러(4조 달러 한도 대비 미미)라고 설명. 메인스트리트 대출은 은행 법률비용·요건 때문에 소상공인에게 거의 안 돌아가 실패라고 주장. 결론적으로 시장에 긍정적이며 재정부양(스티뮬러스) 재원 약 6000억 달러 재배치로 협상에 유리하다고 봄.
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this video is brought to you by four oth of these links down below just pulled the rug out from under the federal reserve and the fed is pissed in this video i'm going to explain exactly what happened what was expected the reality of the situation based on some inside knowledge you want to stay for that and the impact this has on markets and stimulus negotiations all right folks quick reminder as well a ton of you are emailing me for bundle coupons this is a really good sign to me that a lot of you buy one course and then you want to upgrade to having multiple courses i really appreciate that thank you you can email me at kevin meetkevin.com and if you haven't checked yet check them out with the links down below we got the black friday month sale going on so here's what happened on thursday evening the treasury department announced they would reject extending five of the federal reserve's bailout programs and the fed is pissed off about this because they feel like somebody is coming up and unclipping their tool belt because they always call all the tools they have tools in their tool belt and that one day they'll put them away but not yet that's a quote from jerome powell but now the jerome powell's begrudgingly taking that tool belt off and going fine sure it is i'll give it back to you jerome's not very happy about this but should we be worried well let's talk so most of these five facilities that are going to expire on december 31st have to do with bonds well four of them do we'll talk about the other one in just a moment four of them have to do with bonds and here's a quick primer on that because when we hear that it's like okay all right you lose you lose me yeah you're losing me give me my four free stocks i'm getting out of here let's make this really simple let's say it's important for the market let's say you want to raise money and it's important for stimulus let's say you want to raise money you've got a business and you're like crap i need 50 grand to get through the next five months of business otherwise i'm going to go bankrupt so to oversimplify this you could post a notice on your website saying hey i'm selling 50 1 000 loans aka bonds and i'll pay you four percent interest so basically 50 people buy your bonds and all of a sudden you have 50 grand and you're paying four percent interest but you got the money that you needed so that you could survive basically you got a 50k loan at four percent and as you know this works as long as people actually take your loan they buy your bond well back in march no freaking soul was buying anybody else's junk literally no one everyone's like dude i need the cash myself there's no way i'm lending you four percent or anything for four percent you ain't get nothing so instead companies had to raise the interest rate they were offering carnival cruise lines for example was like hey y'all we need somebody and everybody's like you're all sinking so carnival cruise line's like what if uh we pay you 11 to 13 and what happens the sharks come out literally the loan sharks come out and they're like did you say 11 to 13 percent yeah we'll take that nosebleed interest rates the people making the loans are making the bank and carnival survives that's an example of how the free market works when it comes to financing risky operations like sinking ships well enter the federal reserve the federal reserve decided you know what we can't have every company pay these nosebleed interest rates because that's going to tank the market everybody's going to hoard their cash credit is going to freeze up banks are going to be like no i'm not doing any loans at all and then people won't have money to buy bonds and basically the velocity of money goes down and basically really bad things happen so the fed comes in and says fear not we will buy your garbage so you have some cash and you know what you could even give us the lower interest rate because why do we care about making money taxpayers in 10 years are going to bail us out anyway anyway that that gets political so the fed basically injects money where no one else wants to so think about this go back to march 23rd bottom of the market you put up a thing on your website that's like i need a 50 000 loan again i'm oversimplifying because really only larger businesses do this but you put up your 50k and you're like oh gosh nobody's coming to bail me out the fed comes in fear not here's your 50 grand we'll buy your crappy loans and which the fed does you end up with 50k of more money now that can circulate in the economy and most of this money is just straight up from the money printer the fed's like don't worry we'll lend money to you because we're just cranking it out on the printer now they're not actually printing the money they're just changing digits on a spreadsheet but this is just sort of to depict what's actually happening the principle is the same all right so now these loans they're supposed to be paid back right but in an emergency time people need the money now and a lot of people are concerned that hey i'm not i'm not doing loans like banks basically i'm not doing loans things we're in a crisis no way so the fed comes in and handles this and the fed is really funny about this the fed basically can use 10x leverage to lend money yeah so this is where our whole economic system just gets really funny so the treasury department takes a ten dollar bill and goes oh the market's doing really bad right now we're just gonna take this ten dollars oh put it in the bucket we're probably gonna lose it and they dropped the ten dollars in the bucket the fed is like huh we got a ten dollar down payment hey roll another ninety dollars off the printer they print another ninety dollars off so this is how they could really 10x their leverage now the fed has a hundred dollars that they can lend to people so basically when the fed has 454 billion dollars given to them by the treasury department the fed can really lend over 4 trillion dollars so take a pause there that that's a lot of the background in terms of what's going on right but take a pause there for a moment the treasury authorizes 454 billion dollars for a bailout program the fed is like we can add a zero to this we've got over four trillion dollars of bailout money who wants us to buy some bonds we're ready to go on a shopping spree and that shopping spree was designed or i should say disguised via a five program credit facility system and all five of these programs i mean there were 13 in total but five of them that are making the news have been rejected that is they will no longer be in existence let's talk about what those five are and what the impacts of those are okay the first was the municipal bond buying fund this basically helps cities raise money so remember the example of posting you know i need money on your website just think about cities doing that and basically the feds like hey cities if you can't raise money we'll swoop in we'll buy your bonds and that way you guys have money to survive the second and second and third were the primary and second secondary credit facilities for corporations these are two programs designed to allow corporations to sell bonds to the open market and if the open market doesn't buy the fed swoops in and buys it so basically this is the corporate bailout we heard about this is when we heard about oh my gosh the fed is propping up the stock market why because it allows corporations these facilities allow corporations like apple microsoft walgreens and a ton of other companies to sell their bonds on the market and the fed just comes in and buys them at really cheap interest rates now when these programs you know the all of these programs have been ended and so a lot of people like oh my gosh the stock market bailout has ended this has got to be really really bad and it makes sense to think that we'll talk about that more in a moment but even though the fed didn't buy stocks directly when corporations like walgreens and apple can raise money by selling bonds to the fed it basically gives gives corporations more money which means the stock market is buying shares of companies that have more cash and more cash in a pandemic means those companies are safer well the fed just pulled the rug down out from under that the fed's not doing that anymore and so we're going to talk about the impacts of this in a moment basically the big corporate bailout from the fed the stock market bailout that's over okay the fourth so we've talked about municipal the primary and secondary corporate credit facilities now they've got something called the telf term asset backed securities i don't think anybody really cares about the name basically this was a facility to backstop loans from credit cards small business loans student loans and auto loans the purpose here is really to prevent banks from freezing up right kind of like we said earlier banks are like no i'm not issuing any new debt screw that you want a new credit card man denied this helps banks stay providing liquidity or keep providing liquidity and that's really important for the market because look you're running a business and you're like crap i need to finance the next three months worth of expenses otherwise i'm going bankrupt and no bank is lending you money well that's bad right well that program is also now gone so it's like wait a minute kevin this isn't sounding good like all of these programs that seem like they have really good important purposes are gone like who doesn't want the stock market propped up let's be real maybe people who don't own stocks but if you own stocks do you want the stock market propped up you also want cities not to go bankrupt and you want to be able to get credit where credit is needed okay the fifth was the main street lending program aka super cheap five-year loans for small and medium-sized businesses this program was also closed and i mean that seems really bad right i mean all of these individually seem important but you also have democrats and like the new york times freaking out and this is not me taking a political stance i'm just literally calling it like it is the new york times is freaking out and democrats are freaking out they're like oh my gosh you ended a loan program for small and medium-sized businesses what the hell well let's put politics aside and understand what the heck is actually happening so we explained what these programs are how they actually work if you made it this far already you better have already gotten ibo and you better check out the courses because you are a pro for making it this far okay now we're going to get into the implications of this for the stock market and stimulus so consider this what happens if you say hey it's november i need to raise another 50 grand of money i'm gonna sell some bonds at four percent you post them on your website boom they instantly sell that's good right that means you didn't have to raise the interest rate you were offering like the sinking ship of carnival cruise lines and it means well basically you didn't need the fed the market worked you just you didn't need the fed to come bail you out well this is kind of exactly what's happening markets are working again banks are lending cities are able to raise money by selling their bonds to the public and corporations are getting their bonds sold to the public so it's kind of like the federal reserve is the pit bus at the casino hey everyone all right over here all right all right you'll be good now like we all know the pit boss is loaded with dough he could snap his finger and bring in a cart of new chips new dough basically but everyone's happy at the tables everyone's working the dealers are happy the customers are happy corporations are happy cities are happy businesses are like there are a lot of people the market is happy now this is not to be confused with people struggling in the market i mean just because we're using this casino analogy let's go with this people might be happy because the market is functioning like the casino is functioning people aren't throwing chips everywhere and trying to steal chips from everyone else it doesn't mean that people aren't losing money like crazy that doesn't mean that people aren't struggling and it doesn't mean that businesses aren't struggling you know we just had a guy who lost a million dollars on blackjack just as an example right like people are losing money there are businesses failing there's struggling happening but the market itself is functioning the casino for this analogy is operating see that's what's happening here according to treasury secretary mnuchin of the 454 billion dollars authorized which basically gets ballooned to just over four trillion dollars only 25 billion dollars have actually been used so 450 billion dollar pot 25 billion have been used and remember 25 billion gets multiplied by 10x right because the fed's 10xing their leverage so that's about 250 billion out of that 4 trillion that's actually been used it's a drop in the bucket in fact here's a sheet that shows you the money that's been used on these programs all of these figures here just assume these are billions so think 65 billion 2 billion 5 billion 57 billion 45 billion the point is this does not add up to 4 trillion dollars it's way way less aka these programs aren't being used as much as we thought they would be getting used so this is kind of why you've got treasury secretary mnuchin going hey you know the markets are doing fine without these programs in fact here is treasury secretary mnuchin's statement right here at the bottom you can see currently approximately 25 billion of loans and other assets have been funded and they have way more capacity and then over here on this page you'll actually see right here on this corporate section corporate bond markets basically functioning totally normally i'm bottom lining this whole section here like there's no need for the fed to bail corporations out anymore with these bonds municipal credit facilities no bailout needed talf well the liquidity position and capital position of u.s banks ensure they can fulfill the financing requirements of their customers aka all these functions are operating the two facilities over here aren't needed the one facility over here isn't needed okay so basically mnuchin's like dude just give us the money back like we don't need to have this 450 billion dollars allocated to the fed anymore because it's not necessary to keep things functioning but wait a minute wait a minute that everyone is talking about the main street lending program because that's the buzzword basically the fed pulled out the blanket from small and medium-sized businesses or pulled out the rug from under small and medium-sized businesses how could they that is so terrible small and medium-sized businesses the market may be might be functioning but people are losing their pants and people are struggling and businesses need help all right well so this is where a little bit of inside knowledge helps i personally applied for a main street loan not because i need the money but because i want to make these youtube videos and understand what the heck is going on so that way when i'm investing in the market and i'm talking to my course members in my private live i can actually provide insights that in my opinion make total sense and that's why i'm able to make videos like this because i get the insights i care about this stuff this is why i work 12 to 14 hour days because i love this stuff and i like knowing this stuff so here's the scoop i was told by four different banks the following each main street loan costs the bank at least 50 grand in legal fees alone to get approved this means these loans are rarely given to small businesses because the loans have to be like three to four to five million dollars at minimum no small business is going uh yeah sign me up for three four million dollars of debt that i have to pay back in five years in a balloon payment most small businesses don't have the capacity to take these kinds of loans and even if the businesses had the capacity to take these loans guess what problem number two it's a big one even if banks decided to do these smaller loans banks underwrite or basically verify that the loans are going to be good loans in such a way so that the bank doesn't lose money this makes sense like if you're going to give a loan the bank doesn't want to lose money right treasury department said that banks have to be on the hook for five percent of the loan so if they do a million dollar loan the bank is on the hook for 50 000 which is potentially what they spent in legal fees so they're potentially doubly exposed now they collect some fees as well from the customer but still the bank doesn't want to lose money that's the short of it the bank's like dude we will not lose money so guess what the banks say the banks say hey you know we realize the federal reserve says you can get a main street loan if you're struggling and potentially going to go bankrupt you know you could get a main street loan as long as you promise that you're not going to go bankrupt for the next 90 days but given that we the banks are on the hook for five percent uh we're not really going to listen to those rules we're going to make our own rules they're allowed to do that these are called overlays the point is the banks say yeah we're looking for companies i got this from four companies okay from four banks we're looking for businesses with high cash flow and high growth and i'm like wait wait wait wait we're in a pandemic businesses are suffering businesses who need this money aren't companies with high cash flow and high growth they're businesses with less cash flow and less growth because they need a bailout and they're suffering how are banks supposed to have high or how our business is supposed to have high cash flow and high growth to get a main street loan and the bankers are like yeah uh you know this is kind of why we've been denying like 95 of the loan applications we've been getting for main street loans aka the main street lending program is a complete utter and disastrous failure it basically provides a cheap five-year loan to rich companies that are already doing really well it's not helping struggling companies and banks are refusing to lend to struggling companies the struggling companies are staying screwed the main street lending program is just another rich person's bailout that's it the program was a failure so you literally have a situation where the market doesn't need the federal reserve's bond bailouts anymore and you're in a situation where well the main street lending program is basically just a setup to help rich people and it's a disaster okay so what are the implications of all of this on stocks and stimulus well on stocks nothing stock market doesn't care the stock market shrugged this off because we don't need the pit bus right now what about stimulus well it's actually really good news for stimulus mnuchin is taking the 454 billion dollars back and combining that with other unused karzak money that provides around 600 billion dollars of money that could be reappropriated for a new stimulus deal this is basically a way of saying that if congress comes up with a new trillion dollar deal it's only going to cost us around 1.4 trillion dollars this by the way is basically making republicans mouths water because now they see stimulus possible for much less money i mean think about it 1.4 trillion dollars is substantially less than 2 trillion right so all in all when i bottom line all of this and i know this is a long explanation but many of you especially in the course have been asking for this detailed information is this good or is it bad this is good the market don't need the money for the pit boss right now and if the market did congress could always try to you know reallocate something but right now it's just not needed now would it have been better to have just left it there for a little bit maybe they could have left it there but i really think minutian's like just give us this money for now because right now there are other priorities we could use this money for like bailing out restaurants that are struggling or doing ppp loans and things like that so to me this isn't all bad in fact this is much more good than it is bad so if you find any people that say this is really bad make sure to share this video with them just to share this perspectiv
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