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Today's post is a bit more speculative. I already shared it on Twitter a few days ago. I'll include the graphic below. One of the most successful investors in the world has apparently changed his mind about gold. At least, he's now indirectly invested in gold via Barrick Gold. Some Bitcoin optimists believe it's only a matter of time before Buffett also revises his opinion on Bitcoin.
The question now, of course, is how realistic all of this is. And that's exactly what we'll be discussing in today's video. Welcome to our YouTube channel, COT Report. My name is Alexander. We focus on the topics of support and CO, simply explained. Yes, but Buffett is undoubtedly one of the most successful investors in the world.
With his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, he delivers outstanding returns every year— over 20 percent for decades. That 's certainly an outstanding achievement. And whenever Warren Buffett makes an investment or changes his strategy, it generates significant media attention. This was the case recently.
It was also recently announced that Warren Buffett had drastically reduced his bank stock holdings. He had previously been a big fan of banks and insurance companies, but now Berkshire Hathaway has dumped many bank stocks from its portfolio. Specifically, over 60 percent of JP Morgan's position was sold, and in return, he has now invested in Barrick Gold with over $500-600 million, as far as I know.
Barrick Gold is a Canadian company considered the world's leading gold producer, with an annual gold production of approximately 200 tons. To be fair, I should mention that I'm not buying gold directly, but rather entering the sector through a company. A relatively successful gold producer naturally has high sales and profits and also pays a dividend, which I've seen is 32 cents per share per year.
While this isn't a high dividend yield of around 1 percent, it still makes sense. His strategy is essentially based on investing in value companies. Nevertheless, Buffett now has a certain something extra, so to speak, on top of the gold price. I think that's beyond question, and he also benefits from the rising gold price.
This is, of course, somewhat surprising because in recent years he has repeatedly spoken rather disparagingly about gold, saying things like, " Yamaman grips it, you pull out the ground, then you close the gap again, and then you can put it somewhere and look at it. But gold doesn't produce anything, gold doesn't yield dividends, no interest, and so on." Therefore, he hasn't been a big fan of gold at all.
This change in strategy is therefore quite surprising, and some Bitkom optimists believe that Buffett might also change his opinion on Bitcoin. So, we can see that it is increasingly perceived as a digital asset, and he joked on Twitter that if we look at the graphic file, Buffett invested in gold in 2020 to buy it again in 2024.
Max Kaiser said, "I'll show you this graphic. If it starts at $50,000, then..." Panic buying of bets is, of course, somewhat speculative and far-fetched, no question about that. But the question is still allowed: how realistic is all of this? Will it actually happen? We'll look at that in a moment. First, a quick look at the chart, because we're still a long way from $50,000.
There's still a long way to go. And what does it look like right now? We'll take a look at that now. Here we see the Bitcoin start in US dollars. The prices come from a laptop, and today is Thursday, August 20th. In the early morning, it was around 11,700.70 US dollars. After being above the $12,000 mark in recent days, a small consolidation has now set in.
For me, this is n't really surprising, since we were overbought at the beginning of August. More on that in a moment. First, a quick look again at this long-term downtrend, which goes back to the end of 2017. By mid-July, it had finally broken out. The medium- to long-term downtrend that lasted over two years has essentially broken out and recently gained significant momentum.
As mentioned, we were above the $12,000 mark, and one could now draw an upward trend channel here, as this setting makes it somewhat clearer, after Bitcoin found the $10,000 mark and also the intermediate high from February 2020 of around $10,500. It has now been in this upward trend channel for a month.
The question now is, of course, whether it can hold in this upward trend channel or whether we will see another very pronounced consolidation. So, as mentioned, it was recently overbought. We can see the strengths in the text. At the beginning of August, we saw values of 85, and anything above 70 indicates an overbought situation.
This overbought situation has been alleviated with the recent consolidation, which has brought Credit Suisse back into neutral territory. However, the MACD, a trend-following indicator, delivered a bearish crossover on August 10th or 11th. This line broke through this setting from top to bottom, and the McGee also indicates further consolidation – a similar signal to what we saw on May 10th.
Consequently, Bitcoin consolidated for days and weeks before a bullish overpass occurred in mid-July, and this breakout from the long-term downtrend was essentially successful. The Opossum balance sheet volume is still on the rise, which shows us that institutional investors remain involved. More on that in a moment.
In this context, we see the check-in money flow (CM4) making Bitcoin look very bullish. Since the end of March, there has been massive buying pressure, and while this buying has eased somewhat recently, the money flow is still clearly positive, which naturally speaks in favor of Bitcoin. Furthermore, the 50-day momentum has also essentially broken out of this downtrend.
Continuing its upward trend, I now think that Bitcoin, as I said, has seen a bearish overhang, and the MC indicates a consolidation. I also think that we will consolidate again in the short term over the next few days, but I currently see a good chance that Bitcoin can stay in this upward trend channel.
So the lower edge of this channel at around 11,400 US dollars could be support, and the interesting thing is that in the Staley chart, we also see this red line, which is the 25-day moving average, and it also runs at around 11,400 US dollars. This line could very well be support, or rather the lower edge of this upward trend, but we'll have to wait and see in the next few days.
So it would theoretically also be possible that it could fall back to this 50-day line, which is this blue line, which was 10,400-10,500 dollars. That we could also see this breakout line, this intermediate high. That's certainly also possible, and the 200-day moving average is still running down here.
The daily line is around $9,000, so overall, I expect we'll see a short consolidation before Bitcoin can continue its upward trend. As I said, whether EV or CMF still looks very good, and yesterday there was an interesting report: No Money reported that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is already here.
At least, that's what Bitcoin director Dave Chapman said to the TV station here in [location omitted]. He said that institutional investors aren't just coming, they 're already here, and digital assets aren't going anywhere; they're here to stay and will even get stronger. I can only agree with this view.
Therefore, I expect we'll see another short consolidation in Bitcoin before the upward trend continues. As we just saw on my screen, things look quite good for it. Even if we see another consolidation in the next few days, one thing should be clear: in my opinion, institutional investors are on the rise, and we can see that.
The massive inflows of funds recently seen at Grace Kelly Investments also indicate this trend, but private investors, these retail investors, are increasingly joining in and jumping on the bandwagon, as we recently saw in Square's quarterly figures. Bitcoin sales in this cache of absinthe rose by 600 percent in the second quarter.
I'll include the corresponding chart. So, buying is practically happening from all sides, and I think it's only a matter of time before more institutional investors jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's digital company, is n't among them, but I believe there's a chance that this will change in the future.
More on that in a moment. First, a quick reminder about our crypt report. I'll of course keep you updated on Bitcoin in the Club of Reports, and next Saturday there will be a special report for you on the topic of logistics block 1 with a voucher. It's also performed extremely well in recent weeks. Toyota and Zebra Technologies might also be involved, so it's a very exciting time.
The topic, and if you want to read this report, just sign up at crypto-reportieren. Come join us for free on Saturday. Let's briefly return to our main topic. I think Warren Buffett will significantly revise his opinion on Bitcoin. In the past, he has sometimes expressed even more critical views on Bitcoin than on gold.
The graphic illustrates this, among other things. He says, "Yes, it's rat poison squared. They're just looking for people, so to speak, stupid ones who will pay even higher prices," and so on. Bitcoin produces nothing, there are no interest payments or dividends, etc. But this argument isn't really convincing to me.
Can the same argument be made about gold, and so on? So, for me, the argument isn't really convincing, and he also admits that he's not very knowledgeable in this area. In my opinion, it would be too much to expect him to delve into this subject again. The man will be 90 years old next Sunday, August 30th, as far as I know.
So he's already done it all. So, I can understand why he's no longer so deeply involved in the topic, and that's also the task of the other, younger people on his team who will lead the future from the perspective of the former CEO. There are two potential successors, as one of them is aptly named, and Krieg Abel.
They are admittedly a bit older and not particularly tech-savvy, but in the second tier are people like Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who, among other things, ensured that Bergsträßer Weil invested in Amazon a year or two ago. Berkshire Hathaway then bought Amazon stock for the first time, relatively late, since this online revolution has actually been going on for almost 20 years, the e-commerce sector for decades, and the Amazon stock has already risen by tens of thousands of percent.
So, they missed out on the biggest boom for a long time, but better late than never. This also shows that Berkshire Hathaway is quite capable of responding to current developments. Reacting, and the pressure on Buffett's team has recently increased. I'll include this graphic because, as the Crooner crisis goes, they were relatively poorly positioned.
To be quite honest, they sometimes invest in relatively state-owned airlines and also partly in oil stocks and coffee industries, which have suffered considerably during the Crooner crisis. Therefore, some investors were n't entirely happy and voiced criticism. This could, of course, lead to changes in Berkshire Hathaway's management, bringing younger people up who would then gain more influence.
Then I can imagine that these young people, who might be more tech-savvy, would say, "Okay, the dollar is weak, and we need a hedge." This could perhaps be Bitcoin. And if only Berkshire Hathaway invests just 0.5% or up to 1% in Bitcoin as a hedge, with their current cash reserves of $137 billion, that would be almost $1.4 billion invested in Bitcoin.
What would flow is of course speculative, but that would be a very, very large sum of money. If Bergstraßer were to invest here, I would say 0.5 to 1 percent as a hedge against a possible dollar crash in Bitcoin. In my opinion, that would trigger enormous waves in the industry and serve as a signal.
As I said, we're not there yet. A brief conclusion on this whole topic: I don't think Warren Buffett will significantly revise his opinion on Bitcoin. In my opinion, he's not that deeply involved in the subject, and that's the job of younger people. I also don't believe that Berkshire, because it's a holding company, will make a hasty move towards something like small cars.
That could only happen if the dollar really collapses again, and investors put pressure on the holding company, saying, "Yes, yes, we have to do something, we need to provide hedges, etc." But otherwise, I think it will be a very lengthy process. In my opinion, something needs to change in the management structure.
Bergstraßer, because change is needed so that more younger, more tech-savvy people are promoted here, because one thing is quite clear: the banking and insurance industry is facing a massive upheaval in the next five to ten years. So, bloggers, in my opinion, need to spark a discussion here, and Berkshire Hathaway needs to be prepared for this development in order to maintain the performance it has demonstrated in recent years.
Therefore, I had to do something in this area, either to bring in external expertise or simply to develop young people who possess this expertise. But as I said, that's just my opinion. I would be interested in your opinion on this topic. How do you see it? Do you think Warren Buffett will change his opinion on Bitcoin again?
And do you think Jörg Haider might one day consider Bitcoin as a hedge, so to speak, in his portfolio? Please leave your comments below. Otherwise, I would of course have appreciated a thumbs up if you liked the video and found it helpful. And you can, of course, like Always subscribe to my channel here!
I would be very happy if we could reach the 20,000 subscriber mark before summer ends. I would also like to thank everyone who has shared my videos and subscribed to this channel. Next week there will be another video about Bitcoin. I want to show you the most important reasons why the upward trend at Bitkom is expected to continue.
Alex Meier will also likely release a Toyota video on Thursday. He recently posted a big update, and that topic will probably be covered on Thursday. I would be happy if you would join us again then. Until then, thank you so much for watching! Take care, have a nice weekend, stay healthy, and see you in the next video!
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