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Sell! Sell! [screaming] Sell! And it's over, people. Find your nearest exit and get the [screaming] out. Saylor. Murdered. Keep it going. It's dead. Killed in COLD BLOOD ON LIVE TELEVISION. LIKE JFK. It's the same thing. It is the same thing. Ooh. Sell it all. I've been right about like three things in 30 years and this is one of them.
Sell! Sell! Sell the whole The hell with this bearish Don't do it. What? We're not ready for that one, kilos. Later. Let's do this. Oh. Oh. Bear Stearns is fine, by the way. That's what we're working with. Jim Cramer, the man who told you Bear Stearns was fine five days before it collapsed, is weighing in on the Bitcoin situation on X for the world to read.
And Saylor's response to the man criticizing him, quote, "Just a flesh wound, Jimmy. Monty Python, Black Knight. Both arms gone, both legs gone. It's a scratch." Is it just a flesh wound or is something actually broken this time? Welcome back. I'm Weston and buckle up. We got four massive stories to get to.
One, what the actual market data says. Normal cycle or is something actually broke? Two, the boring banking rule almost nobody is talking about that explains actually a lot about where we are right now. Three, the MicroStrategy Tuesday scenario. Can strategy actually go to zero? Allegedly, yes, hypothetically.
And we're going to show you the exact number that some believe could trigger the unraveling of MicroStrategy. If Saylor was warning us all along. Then the same thing that matters. And four, the bull inverse Cramer track record on Bitcoin and what it means for all of us right now. Let's get to it. Bitcoin is trading right around 61,000, down approximately 32% from 87, 88,000 dollars at the yearly open, down roughly 55% from the all-time high, 126k.
We hit that around October 6th, 2025. Total liquidations, 1.6 billy. Leverage traders, people who bet with borrowed money, vaporized in real time. ETF data, 13 consecutive days of outflows. I think we're up to 15 now. The longest streak ever recorded, total approximately 4.3 billion dollars pulled out of Bitcoin ETFs.
Now, before we start blaming Sailor for his 32 Bitcoin sell, who is actually selling? Jim Ferryoli, director of digital currencies research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, answered that this week. Primarily, people who bought in the last year and a half. Average cost basis around 83,000.
They rode it to 126, watched it get cut in half, and they folded. And here's what their own research says about that. When more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is held at an unrealized loss, sellers eventually get exhausted. And when sellers get exhausted, bottoms form. Now, here's the number I want you to see.
This guy ran the year-to-date ROI for Bitcoin against every prior midterm year on record. Average Bitcoin drawdown from yearly open at this point in the midterm year, 31% Bitcoin. Current drawdown from the yearly open, 31 to 32%. We're literally the average. This isn't Bitcoin breaking, this is like right on schedule.
Into the cryptoverse as base case, June low countertrend rally, one more low around October. The realized price average cost basis of every Bitcoin holder on chain sits around 53 to 54,000. Bear markets historically touch the realized price before turning. That's the honest picture. Now, here's a boring story that kind of explains everything.
There is a rule sitting in the Basel III global banking framework. The number is 1,250%. This is the risk weight applied to Bitcoin if the bank wants to hold it on its balance sheet. Translation, for every $1 of Bitcoin a bank wants to hold, they must keep $12.50 in reserve capital against it. Not 10%, not 50%, 1,250.
This is the regulatory equivalent of your government walking up to every bank on Earth, pointing at Bitcoin and saying, "Touch that and we'll destroy your capital ratios." Allegedly. This is why the big institutional money, the pension funds, the insurance companies, the commercial banks are still locked out.
And that's the vacuum Saylor has been filling. Now, the Clarity Act, first crypto regulatory framework in American history, should be Bitcoin's big institutional unlock. Here's the problem. Jeff Booth says it plainly. I don't think things like Clarity Act, I don't think they they might help Bitcoin go up in pieces of paper right away, but I think it's to try to get people to use stable coins instead of Bitcoin.
And to try to slowly capture try to slowly capture what we're talking about. But I don't think I don't think it'll work. There it is. The Clarity Act is stalled in the Senate. Banks rejected the White House's own compromise, and even if it passes, the first beneficiary is stablecoin issuers. Dollar-denominated digital instruments, things that reinforce the dollar's grip on the global payment rails.
Not Bitcoin. Bitcoin, though, doesn't need permission from the financial-industrial complex to work. The 1,250% rule keeps banks out, so Saylor keeps doing what Saylor does. Which brings us to story three. Put down the bottle. We're going to make it. Can MicroStrategy go to zero? Yes, hypothetically, allegedly.
Here's possibly how. Think of strategy's balance sheet as a waterfall. Money sits at the top. That's the Bitcoin, approximately $62 billion at current prices. And there are people standing at different levels of that waterfall waiting for their piece. First in line, convertible debt holders, about $6.7 billion.
They eat first, no matter what. Second in line, preferred stockholders, all the STRCE, STRK, the various instruments Saylor invented, approximately $15.5 billion in total claims. They eat second. Last in line, common stockholders. If you bought MicroStrategy shares, you get whatever's left after everyone else is fed.
Now, allegedly, hypothetically, Bitcoin at 26,290 MicroStrategy shareholders get a bowl of nothing. Bitcoin is fine. Bitcoin's at 26,000. People who bought MicroStrategy stock may possibly get wiped out, though. MicroStrategy can go to zero long before Bitcoin goes to zero. And there's one more layer when you account for all those preferred obligations sitting ahead of common shareholders.
Saylor cannot issue new MicroStrategy shares in a way that's truly accretive to the people who bought the stock. His main capital raise machine, the thing that let him buy Bitcoin at effectively 0% interest, is currently broken. Strategy has raised the STRCE dividend multiple times. It's now sitting at 11.5% and you know why they don't cut that dividend?
Because the moment you do, STRCE sells off hard. And 80% of STRCE is held by retail investors who, and I want to be careful here, mostly don't understand that there are $10.5 billion of claims sitting ahead of them in that waterfall. They were sold this as a digital risk-free rate. It is not a money market.
Now look, let's steel man the bull case because that's what we do. Saylor, he is not going down without a fight. Great entrepreneurs find a way. Even the guy who disagrees with him, Pat- Patrick Bet- David made this case. I'll take us back into history. You know, let's go back to Elon Musk's difficult and painful 2018.
Remember when we talked about Elon Musk? Oh my gosh, the debt's coming due. He has so much debt on the gigafactories and he's doing this to build batteries. He's doing all this and he's spending all this thing and he went down and he's trying to build a launch pad at the end of Texas. What's he going to do?
And remember all this Adam? You remember this? We talked about this. All of a sudden guess who would show up? Middle East financiers show up or he comes up with a bond and shows up. Great entrepreneurs find a way out. Right here, the real question isn't oh my gosh, is he going to sell the Bitcoin is going to crash.
Maybe that hap- that happens. What happens if the market crashes tomorrow and Bitcoin bounces back to 115 or 120 or beyond it? What if Bitcoin gets to 140 because our own Senate can't get out of its own way and we can't get things passed and we have this debt and we have all the things going on and they and we have the inflation spike statistics get used and Kevin Warsh is forced to actual raise rates which I don't think's a good idea.
What happens if all this happens? You know what happens? Guess what? The market's going to crash. It's going to be going to be tough. And what if Bitcoin bounces back as the alternative asset at that point? And [snorts] the most important bull point, Bitcoin doesn't need strategy. Bitcoin existed before Saylor.
Bitcoin will exist after Saylor. Even if MicroStrategy's capital structure implodes, the Bitcoin gets redistributed. More direct holders, more self-custody, less leverage in the system. This isn't Bitcoin failing. This is the leverage failing. Same as 2022 and 2018. Leverage fails, Bitcoin absorbs it, we move on.
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Keep your stack. Scan the QR or click the link in the description and head over to ledn.io. All right, story four, the happy ending and it didn't even cost you five bucks. Hey, step away from that window. We're going to make it. His name is Jim Cramer and I believe I genuinely deeply believe that he just did us a massive favor.
The inverse Cramer of Bitcoin is not a meme. It is a documented phenomenon with a track record that would make any quant weep with joy. Walk with me. December 5th, 2022, FTX just collapsed. Bitcoin at 17,000. Cramer on Mad Money, it's never too late to sell an awful position. And that's what you have.
What happened next? Bitcoin bottomed and ripped to $126,000. July 25th, 2025, in a stunning legendary reversal, Jim Cramer announces he is buying Bitcoin as a hedge against American debt. Bitcoin Magazine immediately fired off the inverse Cramer warning. What happened next? Bitcoin topped at $126,000.
October, we've been in a bear market ever since. He went long and it peaked. The inverse Cramer works in both directions. Christmas Day, 2025, Cramer declares he is 100% bearish on Bitcoin. And then today, June 2026, with Bitcoin sitting right on top of the production cost floor for efficient miners, right at the average midterm year drawdown level, right at a historical accumulation territory, Jim Cramer types "Saylor murdered Bitcoin." Do you understand what this is?
The inverse Cramer portfolio was up 60% in 2025. Nancy Pelosi's famous copycat fund was up 25. He beat Nancy by like 35 points by doing the opposite of Jim Cramer. There is now a legitimate academic argument that Jim Cramer possesses some form of supernatural anti-knowledge. And now for the part that matters more than all of it.
Jeff Booth and Samson Mow sat down this week two of the most battle-hardened Bitcoin minds alive. Check it out. Bitcoin is as healthy as healthy as it's ever been. The people that don't believe in Bitcoin are probably going to be punished for not believing in Bitcoin, I believe. Jeff Booth, who watched Amazon drop from 126 bucks to three bucks during the dot-com crash, while actual internet adoption went straight up.
He said Bitcoin is the healthiest it's ever been. And on the shitcoin massacre, Samson said something I want you to hear. AIs are just going to obliterate DeFi because they're good at finding bugs and all of those smart contracts from Ethereum and Solana and whatever, they're all going to be just eviscerated by AI and drained of funds and that they're going to either retreat to Bitcoin or they're just going to be annihilated.
The shitcoin massacre isn't a side effect, it's a feature. AI is eating the smart contract space from the inside out and the capital that drains out has to go somewhere. Eventually, it finds Bitcoin. You love to see it. And Gigachad agrees. Let me just say a few words on the market right now. In the year 2026, there'll probably be a trillion dollars of capital that's going to flow into AI and the hyperscalers.
We can see it right now. In the last 3 months and the next 3 months, 400 billion dollars of capital is being raised by OpenAI, by Anthropic, by Google, by SpaceX. You're literally watching an 85 billion-dollar IPO in SpaceX and 80-billion-dollar offering in by Google. No one ever dreamed that the company generating infinite cash, Google, is going to go to the market and ask for 80 billion more.
Anthropic's doing an 80-billion-dollar raise. So, what you have right now is a massive capital rotation. 400 billion dollars in just a matter of weeks rolling into AI. About 1% of that, 4 billion dollars, has has rolled out of the Bitcoin ETFs over the past 14 days. You have a a portion of capital. Clearly, people aren't They're not financing the AI trade with all crypto assets, but 1 or 2% of the market is crypto.
And there there is a reallocation to get ready for these massive IPOs. That has created a downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin, which has fallen from 82,000 to 62, 63,000 over those 15 days. I think everybody on X or on social media off times loses their minds when the price falls, but it's not a complicated reason why this is happening.
It's a massive vacuum. Every single investment bank on Wall Street is out there and marketing the Anthropic deal, the Open AI deal, the Google deal, the SpaceX deal, and everybody is got to come up with $400 billion of cash. And they're selling credit instruments, private credit, public credit, they're selling software as a service companies, anything that looks stable, they're selling Bitcoin, they're rolling into the hot new issues, and that actually is the primary dynamic I think driving the market this week, this month, and it'll probably continue as long as these mega IPOs come.
In the history of the world, there's never been $80 billion IPOs. And we're getting like 1 2 3 4 5. This is going to be the biggest year of IPOs and equity issuance in our lifetime. How will the market react? You can see, I mean, there's just a mass amount of volatility, you know, sometimes things surging, sometimes they're crashing.
I don't think any part of the market's immune to that. Let me bring it home. Jim Cramer and Michael Saylor did not murder Bitcoin. The Ponzi running since 1971, the one that requires infinite debt, infinite money printing, infinite dilution of your purchasing power, tried to murder Bitcoin again. It didn't work in 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022, and it's not likely to work now.
Here's what actually happened. Leverage traders got washed. Paper hands folded. Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin out of 843,000, and the entire financial media lost its mind. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down exactly what it's down in every midterm year on record. The inverse Cramer just fired for the third time. Sellers are getting exhausted, and Jeff Booth says it's the healthiest Bitcoin has ever been.
This is a transfer, not a collapse. The fiat ponzi wants you scared. It wants you to fold your position and hand your sats to someone who will hold them all the way to the next all-time high. Some people will. Some people are going to fold. And that's fine. That's always fine. More for us. TAKE THE DISCOUNT.
STACK your sats and understand Sailor and Jim Cramer didn't murder Bitcoin. But old Cramer may have just rang the dinner bell. You understand that this system was never designed to protect you. But here's the thing. You're still walking around with a tracking device in your pocket broadcasting your location leaking your data letting your devices ping towers you never agreed to ping.
Your phone, your laptop, your key fob, they're sending signals right now whether you're using them or not. Always on, always broadcasting. Nobody told you to opt out of that, too. Look, being a Bitcoiner isn't just about protecting your money. It's about protecting your health, your privacy, and your safety.
The whole stack. You don't get to opt out of fiat and keep the surveillance. That's not how freedom works. Escape zone builds Faraday bags that fix exactly that. You put your device in, the signals stop. No tracking, no scanning, no one picking up what you're putting down. It's basically an off switch for your digital footprint.
In a bag you can actually carry everywhere. Scan the QR or click the link in the description. Anyone coming from Simply Bitcoin automatically gets 10% off. If it doesn't apply, use code simply at scapezone.com/simply. That's scapezone.com/simply. Use code simply. Hey, if this episode gave you something, pay the like toll.
Hit subscribe. GIVE US A BUMP. DROP in the comments. Are you buying the dip? Do you think this is the inverse Cramer bottom signal? Or are you still a little nervous? Let us know. Hey, love you guys. Catch you next time. Peace. You're a dumbo. Jim Cramer just said we are absolutely what do you do? You run to the hills.
BRUCE DICKINSON, THE BRUCE DICKINSON, get the out of here. I don't know. I'm just freestyling right now. What do we got? I'm lost in space. Where am I? In Schrodinger's bull bull market? We're massacred. Look what they did to our boy. If you prefer to go down with the ship, you.
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