저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 내일 FOMC에서 금리를 동결(pause)할 가능성이 높다는 골드만삭스 전망을 소개하며, 은행 스트레스가 금리 인상 중단 명분이 될 수 있다고 분석. 다만 금리 인상 중단 후 재인상(start-stop)은 연준이 피하려 할 것이므로 25bp 인상 후 동결될 것으로 본다고 주장. 채권 가격 상승으로 은행 부담이 완화되고 있다고 언급. 시장이 동결 쪽이면 QQQ·SPY·BTC 상승 기대.
다듬은 글
us now talk about the Federal Reserve inflation what's going to happen tomorrow and what Goldman Sachs is projecting this is a pretty interesting piece we're going to be going through from Goldman Sachs but first Canadian inflation kind of interesting uh big drop compared to the estimates uh Canadian CPI year over year for February came in at 5.2 versus the 5-9 previous and the estimate of 5'4 so a nice softening we want to see that in the International Community just like we want to see that at home it looks like we had month over month come in at 0.4 versus the 0.5 previous and 0.5 estimate it's now some are arguing that we're going to be Crossing base effects which is where we compare to high levels of inflation last year and that's why we could potentially be getting staggered down inflation reads going forward but look I don't care what it is that's pushing inflation down I'd like to see inflation Trend down because it's going to help us convince the Federal Reserve to do what of course to pause so let's talk about the Goldman Sachs projection for tomorrow this came out yesterday and uh this is the forecast from Goldman Sachs I was reading this last night and this is the forecast from Goldman Sachs they are calling for a Federal Reserve pause tomorrow tomorrow's also coupon expiration day guaranteed best price prices will be going up after that for those great zero to Mill in stocks and psych most popular right now so what do we got we expect the FED to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system now that's interesting a lot of folks are saying the stress in the banking system is exactly why the FED would pause and that makes logical sense however I personally and this is my take I'm of the mindset that the FED doesn't actually think that rates uh would would really affect solving issues at the banking sector in other words is a pause really going to change anything for the banking sector let's put it this way remember what affects Banks right now what affects Banks well what affects banks are the value of treasuries now yes the FED action could drive the value of treasuries mortgage-backed Securities agency secures whatever all of these could be affected by the fed's decision tomorrow yes but they could probably have a similar effect with their talking in other words I don't think the base fomc rate is going to be really necessary for the FED to try to manipulate the banking sector at all I think they can do that with their talking they're yapping and their projections so I actually think the FED is going to go for we need to maintain the inflation fight we do that with rates uh banking we we solve with the uh buy the FED pivot facility Oop There we go by the FED pivot facility that's not actually what it's called but that's what we nickname it buy the FED pivot facility that's how they solve Banking and so that's my take as to what they're going to say tomorrow and really treasury yields have come down so much that the value of a lot of this agency debt has actually gone up because remember when uh sorry let me rephrase this when treasury yields fall the value of the bonds goes up one of the big issues that you've had at the banks is this plummeting in the value of their bond portfolio their held to maturities and they're available for sale Securities well both of them have been plummeting in value and as people take money out of the banks they have to sell something that's worth less money now so in other words the banks like crap you know we're losing asset value while being forced to basically liquidate this sucks but because the banking crisis started we've actually seen treasure yields plummet Bond values rise which actually reduces some of the strain on banks so FED looks and says look things are getting better the banks solve the value of their bonds rally Financial conditions are still tight even though bonds rallied and yields fell a little bit we've got an inflation fight to worry about and that's the top priority for us because there's nothing worse than losing control of inflation I really expect the FED to say that now of course I want to go through the Goldman Sachs argument here but just to finish I suppose my own take a look at this right here these are the and it's straight up from Goldman Goldman Sachs Financial conditions index where are we as of this morning still stable stable and high much higher than where we were in January and Jerome Powell was satisfied with that bump right there that's the crazy thing to think about for a moment when that hot jobs report came out in January Jerome Powell was like oh well Financial conditions have already tightened he basically rolled it off the cuff to say ah well Financial conditions are tight we're Gucci That was down here we're up here so things are actually tighter now uh then over here this is uh the five-year Break Even inflation rate this is in my opinion what right here is going to reiterate the FED going for 25 tomorrow the five-year break-even rate on inflation ticked up again uh into this morning here last night into this morning that to me is telling the FED okay we got we got to stay strong because if we lose control of inflation expectations then we're really screwed and uh we don't like getting screwed here's that inversion of the yield curve this is the 10-2 we're looking at obviously the steepening is usually a sign of something breaking which is exactly what happened uh but uh let's uh let's you know that's my argument right but let's let's now that I've poisoned the well I suppose let's go into the Goldman argument so they say uh that the FED should take a pause in the inflation fight uh but that should not be a problem because bringing inflation back to two percent is a medium-term goal says Goldman Sachs so in other words we have time which the fomc expects to solve only gradually over the next two years I don't know where the are getting this two-year idea from uh that seems a little wild to me because the Federal Reserve in the past has taken the approach of opportunistic disinflation which is where they've literally waited 20 years to get down to two percent but whatever the inflation problem actually actually looks less urgent now than last summer again I personally disagree with that because if the FED loses control of expectations then we're really screwed but anyway and that's because near-term expectations have fallen sharply that is true long-term expectations for inflation remain anchored true moreover the link between a single 25 BP rate hike and future inflation is very tenuous that's also true how much is our 25 BP hike really going to make a difference but you could say that same thing in both directions right you could say hey what's the difference between 25 BP as a hike it's not going to hurt anything just like you could say hey why another 25 is it really going to help you could go in both ways with this right now I see your comments here somebody says Banks need cuts to survive well not necessarily in fact Banks what they need is the value of their bond portfolios to go up the value of their bond portfolio is just skyrocketed through the banking crisis now yes I understand it skyrocketed from a hole right it's like it plummeted and then it's up it's like that Meme that we see where everything plummets and then it goes up a little and we're like really happy that did happen uh now of course even Elon Musk is chiming in on this which this is generally a negative indicator in my opinion for for Tesla when he acts like this uh which is okay it's it's a it's not this is not to to say that Elon shouldn't I'll I'll take it uh it's actually just a little bit of a leading indicator when he starts complaining about raids it's a sign uh that maybe auto loans are getting a little tougher to manage but take a look at this so uh this right here is uh Twitter uh Bill Ackman says the Federal Reserve should pause on Wednesday we have had a number of major shocks to the system three Bank closures in a week week wiping out equity and bondholders the demise of Credit Suisse and the zeroing of its Junior bondholders notably bondholders bearing losses is a major problem notably bondholders okay it's a major phenomenon fine whatever uh so then he talks a little bit more here about First Republic and the effect about this meaningful tightening that we've seen is not yet visible fully visible he's basically talking about the lags of raid hikes here now Bill Ackman is convinced the Federal Reserve studies his tweets so he takes in my opinion he puts on this sort of like God complex uh and it's like fed you must listen to me we don't yet know where all the losses are what if more there are more failures of other Banks which honestly there probably will be there are too many lag effects and yes inflation is still a problem but Powell can do that by pausing and making it very clear that this is a temporary pause no no it's not gonna happen it's absolutely not gonna happen and I'll tell you my opinion as to why and I'll take the L I I'll die on the hill if I'm wrong it's fine but I'm gonna make the argument here okay anyway Elon replies to this and says no we don't need to pause we need to drop the rate by 50 BP on Wednesday it's not gonna happen either and I'll explain why so uh here's the thing the Federal Reserve for the last year has said we need to prevent the mistakes of the 1970s because in the 1970s under Arthur Burns we had a start stop mentality at the Federal Reserve which was this idea that uh okay things are getting better let's pause okay uh uh oh oh oh oh inflation's coming back okay let's hike again oh oh okay okay it's calming down again okay let's pause that created Paul volcker that is literally what Jerome Powell wants to prevent even though people say drum Powell wants to be a Paul volcker and that he's a wannabe Paul volcker I actually don't think he wants to be a Paul volcker because here's the thing let's put the bias hat on for a moment if you're Jerome Powell what do you want I will make it Crystal Clear what you want if you're drone Powell inflation to go to two percent with as little job loss and damage to the economy as possible and ideally no recession simple right he doesn't need to pull vocoros if inflation goes away because Paul volcker is the equivalent of pain and Jerome Powell himself said we don't want to cause unnecessary human pain even though in the past he said we could always over tighten because then we could always basically turn the money printer on again he's balanced that argument now with the idea that he wants to limit human pain now Arthur Burns in the 70s took this start stop approach and since then the Federal Reserve has made it very clear that was stupid now In fairness they didn't know because they didn't have another situation like that to compare back to but today we do and today the Federal Reserve has made it very clear that a start-stop approach is a very bad idea uh because it it potentially unanchors inflation expectations and then you're really screwed now you have Bill Ackman Elon Musk and Goldman Sachs all calling for either a pause or a cut but a start stop is exactly what the Federal Reserve has telegraphed they will not do they have telegraphed a start stop approach is not happening as clearly as I have reminded you that there's a coupon code expiring tomorrow that you can get life insurance in as little as five minutes that's exactly what I use Apple pay and Android pay for it linked down below and you can get all of those are linked down below like as clearly as I've telegraphed those pitches the Federal Reserve has said we are not going back to start stop it it seems crystal clear but but then again people still have their their hopes again this is all I'm saying this what 16 hours before the event so maybe I'll take the L here and I'll gladly take the L but I think we're getting 25 and no start stopping I think j-pow goes look you know Financial conditions are good we'll keep rates up to keep fighting inflation and on top of that the value of of agency Securities that uh Banks hold has just gone up so that should actually take some stress out of the system along with our buy the FED pivot facility anyway Goldman Sachs goes on to say that tighter tighter lending standards resulting from bank stress will subtract about a quarter to a one and a half percent from GDP growth in 2023 the equivalent of an impact of another 25 to 50 BP of tightening on financial conditions that's their belief I actually think uh that that could be a little later but that's okay the estimated impact is relatively moderate in part because lending standards had already tightened sharply in Prior quarters they're basically throwing cold water on the idea that why do we need another 25 BP okay however the risks are tilted toward a larger effect and the uncertainty will likely linger for a while yes uncertainty will likely linger for a while this is true let me just be clear if if we get a pause tomorrow I personally think we're going to the moon in the stonk market uh like I I've said it before I'll say it again I think QQQ could potentially run uh up to 330.
I think you could get uh the Spy easily run up past 410 uh and I think BTC could honestly start knocking on the door 32k again uh potentially even higher um would not surprise me at all if we get a pause tomorrow I really don't think the Market's actually expecting to pause but anyway we have left our fed forecast unchanged Beyond March and continue to expect see this is stupid man this is no three additional 25 BP hikes in May June and July which would raise the future Peak to 5.25 to 5.
like markets aren't even projecting that right now and it's fine I mean it's it's Goldman's opinion but it just seems like a very bizarre argument to pause and then go back to this idea of multiple raid hikes um I I don't see it but but okay let's let's see what other arguments they have here so expectations for the fomc meeting have changed abruptly over the last 10 days we now expect the FED to pause uh banking stress calls for a pause and we discussed it in thinking or or we discussed our thinking uh in our call our rationale is simple it doesn't make sense to tighten monetary policy amidst stress in the banking system that could present substantial downside risk to the economy you know another thing that people have argued is that the banking crisis was really a a tool to determine okay uh like we broke things how bad is it going to get and the FED could actually potentially guide are we going to go for 25 BP or not based on what the Market's reaction is well uh the Market's reaction is something that we could actually take a look at this morning which is a benefit that Goldman here doesn't have take a look at this if we hop on over here look at this first Republic up 25 in the pre-market 26 now in the pre-market just go to the five minute chart here so you can see First Republic recovering UBS is running up uh seven percent here and Credit Suisse is sitting at 97 cents that's almost 15 cents above the buyout price for this uh for the stock so uh that Arbitrage opportunity is continuing here but it's showing you that people think there's a chance now that mortgage bonds and treasury bonds have actually increased in value maybe the pain is slowly over now that's not to say there won't be other stresses on the regional banking system but you just had Janet Yellen yesterday talk about how they're finding ways to potentially uh relieve the FDIC coverage limits and and increase them to temporarily and potentially guarantee deposits of everyone at small and medium Banks going forward even without Congressional Authority that's something that they're quote studying right now but based on what the market is doing today the market seems to think oh banking crisis yeah okay there might still be some strains but this is not systemic anyway we'll keep going back to this uh Goldman piece here I I remember I like looking at what other people what what the opinions of others are because I do think it's very valuable to to always challenge your own beliefs and opinions all right so as a result uh additional stress in the banking system is the most immediate concern but the lingering concern is that uh wealthy individuals and large depositors who are not fully protected might move away from the small Banks uh and this is what we've also talked about with basically this idea that maybe medium and small banks will get their FDIC limits uh extended of course we've seen some substantially large borrowing but why do they call for a pause well they actually call for a pause because they argue here that inflation can wait six weeks that the inflation now the inflation problem looks less urgent now than it did last summer because of year ahead expectations however you have to remember how the FED looks at this the FED looks at this and says that's fantastic that expectations are lower a year ahead for inflation but we act we actually have to see those come through we actually have to see those expectations come to fruition and reality otherwise we could potentially risk those things not actually happening you know I know everybody's talking about this idea of housing disinflation that owners equivalent rents are going to tank but what if they don't that's a real possibility that what if they don't well if they don't then you don't get the disinflation that you're projecting right so you actually do have to tighten to the point where you actually start seeing the stuff go through yes that creates a risk of over tightening our best guess is the economy will emerge strong enough that future rate hikes will be appropriate that is from this banking crisis before the appearance of stress in the banking system two Trends and data suggested the risks lay in the hawkish Direction first inflation news had deteriorated a little bit with upward revisions and further problems of the auto sector still have supply chain issues in the auto sector leading to increasing uh wholesale prices not necessarily retail prices though second strength and hiring real to swell I mean I I'd like to see their data on strength and hiring I question that a little bit real disposable income which is still negative and consumer spending all pointing to some risk of a moderate GDP re-acceleration maybe we'll see for January but uh it's an interesting piece from Goldman Sachs it's an interesting argument there is there is a argument an argument to be made about this idea of potentially pausing uh I don't think it's a very strong one the fed's path Beyond March the March meeting will depend on the impact of the bank stress on the economy so this is where they think the FED could basically pause and then just re-tighten again three times I really think that meter is the 70s too much and if that were to happen you really got to start asking yourself is the Fed just making uh historically bad mistake I think it would be wild and the other thing that this would accomplish a pause over here is the potential fear right I mean think about this a Fed pause could easily be seen as what do you know that we don't and it's bad isn't it that's that's my thesis I know that's a little bit jaded to think but think about it if we get a pause tomorrow uh you know on one hand it seems like oh that should be good right but then that's also going to get counterbalanced with fear sure maybe we could rally under the idea of a pause but wait a minute what if the fear year of a pause actually ends up extending too much where now all of a sudden people are convinced that the FED sees how bad things really have gotten and it's way worse than we think it's not just Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank and some of these crypto related firms like silvergate or signature it's potentially all banks I mean think about the banks that have collapsed Credit Suisse is historically had horrible risk management procedures Silicon Valley Bank lent to very risky startups who ran out of capital and uh uh you know really in a recession are the least likely to survive uh then you've got silvergated signature who uh were basically a crypto on-ramp but because of crypto's fall over the last year you've had a substantial withdrawal of cash from these Banks now all of these Banks that have failed so far I have had higher risk profiles than than most other Banks so if the FED pauses after those failures it's saying oh no those risk profiles extend to the regular banking system as well uh that that seems like a stretch for for me to see the FED doing that I know a lot of people are calling for it uh and this this idea of a pause tomorrow but I mean we should make a bet uh we should you know what let's let's run a poll uh and let's see what you think will the FED pause tomorrow all right poll start your pull will the FED pause tomorrow yes pause no pause we'll see what y'all think yeah anyway all right oh yeah so so my take actually for what is going to be the most bullish for the market tomorrow well let me answer that first and then I'll talk about this section here from Goldman so what would be the most bullish tomorrow in my opinion the expiration of the coupon code but beyond that I would say the most bullish thing would be a 25 BP and then a very dovish SCP and a dovish presser uh and an optimistic view on inflation that's that's what I think would be very very good for the stock market tomorrow like if we get this I'm gonna be very happy tomorrow uh 25 BP dovish projections on on how bad things are going to get uh uh for you know recessionary point of view which will lead to a lower terminal rate and potentially a softer view on inflation that that's a hope we'll see that in my in my opinion this would be the best case scenario in my opinion best case scenario number one uh best case scenario number two okay best case scenario number two would be a pause along with a dovish sep uh dovish um let's see uh uh uh presser Presser not not pressure press pressure is the press conference uh and then optimistic view on inflation this has uh has the potential of creating some fear but if it's matched with dovishness that would be very good then you do have uh the bearish scenario a bearish I'll call this the worst case worst case one worst case one would be 25 BP uh hawkish inflation a hawkish sap higher term uh lower GDP and uh Hawk pressure hawkish press that that would be your probably more worst case scenario over here uh I suppose you could also suggest there's a worst case scenario where the FED pauses and then his hawkish uh I think that would be unlikely if they're going to Hawk it'll be 25 so I'll I'll say these These are the three scenarios uh I would I'm gonna go ahead and say that you're probably 50 percent 30 percent no no no no no no let's go a little lower here uh let's go 20 here and then maybe maybe 30 over here that's those are Kevin's Theses here all right March meeting whether the fomc pauses or not this week it's likely to include some acknowledgment about uncertainty but no duh I mean this is like saying the sky is blue we expect a few changes to the SCP first GDP growth will likely be revised up to uh reflect the strength of the first quarter uh uh maybe maybe okay but what about the 2024 GDP the second the 2023 unemployment will probably be revised down potentially by uh a 0.5 B percentage points revise down for this year to reflect continued strength okay potentially uh that's going you know staying in the three percent range okay unemployment path for 24.25 will only come down slightly they really think things are good which I mean that's also somewhat bullish right I mean Goldman to some extent here is saying like the economy is doing really well like so what uh you know maybe a quick little pause to get through the banking crisis and we'll take it from there so these are their expectations so they are picking up they're going to increase their a real GDP Outlook compared to the feds right here the FED in the fed's in green right here and let's see where their differences are so their differences are higher GDP lower unemployment and a slightly higher inflation but not much higher with a slightly higher terminal rate 5.32 okay it's an idea uh I I'm really hoping that they lower that terminal rate that's my thesis but in the video that I did yesterday where we covered uh my sort of thoughts on the SCP I really think that that term rate will come down uh but maybe not these were my projections let's see here my projections were right here so let's see here this would be is this the right yeah this is December and I'm trying to remember what we talked about yesterday the 425 we're past that so five one uh uh I remember what I said yesterday I said I think I think 2023 is going to go to more like four eight so let me write that down so 2023 would be more like four eight it was my take Goldman thinks they're gonna go to about five three so they're gonna pop this up a little bit that's Goldman's take compared to mine we'll see we shall see that's not very very interesting but let's go ahead and see now what y'all voted here in the poll so uh after all that um 22 percent of you voted for pause 78 of you voted for no Pause by j-pow doesn't this all seem manufacturer trying to Institute a cbdc I mean like I don't know why people are so afraid about this idea of a central bank digital currency DeSantis was freaking out about that yesterday and he's like if I become you know well I mean he didn't say if I become president but we all know what he means that he's basically talking about how he wants to get rid of uh or ban the ability of the government to have a central bank digital currency I actually think that's fantastic for blockchain I think it's Central Bank digital currency is is a choice and shows you it gives you a lot of Merit and Credence to to blockchain and I don't know why people are so afraid of uh this this idea of maybe like a Fed coin or something like that by the way check this out I got a house hack vest yeah yeah some nice colors over here If the Fed pauses the consequences could be horrific hmm all right so the cure for a full banking system failure is a partial banking system failure no I think that in capitalism when you go into a recessionary period of time the riskiest businesses go bankrupt that's the point that's what capitalism is supposed to do with the cbdc they can control where you spend your money when you can spend your money they can apply negative interest rates and force you to spend your money privacy gone you already have very limited privacy uh with with a lot of uh cryptocurrency once people know what your wallet address is you actually have even less privacy right uh and all it takes is the IRS to start mandating that you give them your wallet addresses and there goes all your privacy so the Privacy takeover could happen regardless right uh this idea that that they can control your money I mean that's no different from the fact that they can control your money right now at JPMorgan JPMorgan can freeze your bank accounts tomorrow and you have no control of your money they could close your credit lines they can close your credit cards uh you know that like all of these things the negative interest rate all of those things can already happen in the central banking system the idea that somehow cbdc's are are like so much horribly different than what the banking system can already do with you and don't get me wrong like I think a decentralized alternative to the banking system has a lot of Merit I'm just saying the idea that that the banks can do all these things to you or ideas that already exist uh so uh we'll see uh I can't close my safe with gold and silver yeah you got me there that's true unless you put it in a safety deposit box definitely got you
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