저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 자동차 공급 부족 속에서도 전기차 성장이 가속된다고 보며 테슬라 장기 강세와 줌 매수를 강조했다. 고용 지표 해석: 7월 고용 부진의 원인으로 델타 변이, 공급망 문제, 재고 적체를 꼽았다. 자동차 재고는 딜러 매장이 아니라 소비자 차고에 쌓여 있다고 봤고, 수요는 견조하다고 판단했다. 전기차 전망: 전 세계 전기차 판매가 작년 220만 대에서 올해 360~380만 대로 50% 이상 늘고, 2025년 4,000만 대에 이를 수 있다고 전망했다. 근거는 라이트의 법칙(학습곡선)이며, 전기차 가격이 내연차 이하로 떨어지면 성장이 가속된다고 했다. 중국의 보조금 확대를 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. 기존 완성차(GM·포드·도요타): 전기차 생산에 뛰어들면서 내연차 칩 공급이 전기차 쪽으로 이동할 수 있다고 봤다. 반도체 부족은 테슬라에 우호적 변수로 해석했다. 테슬라: 반도체 부족을 엘론 머스크 팀이 대체 부품으로 잘 우회하고 있다고 평가했다. 2017년 7,000달러 목표가는 5:1 액면분할 후 3,000달러 기준(구주 환산 약 15,000달러)으로 수정했고, 현재 주가는 700달러대다. 목표가 상향 근거로 이익 개선과 미국·중국 사업 성장을 들었다. 줌(ZM): 줌을 화상회의 도구가 아니라 기업 통신 시장(약 1.5조 달러)의 PBX 대체 플랫폼으로 봤다. 시스코 등 기존 업체의 역할을 점차 잠식할 것으로 전망했고, 하이브리드 근무가 장기간 유지된다는 전제를 깔았다. 이번 실적 후 주가 조정 시 매수했다고 밝혔다. 리스크: 칩 공급 부족의 장기화, 전기차 보급 속도 둔화, 밸류에이션 부담은 언급되지 않았다. 목표가 근거는 대부분 장기 전망이다. 출연자 전망: 테슬라와 전기차 관련 기업에 장기 강세 견해를 유지했다. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 언급은 없었다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to yahoo finance live innovation never takes a breather even in front of a long holiday weekend and after a jobs report and that means there could be new investing opportunities staring you right smack in the face who better discuss the intersection of innovation and investing than kathy wood she is of course the founder ceo and cio at arc invest and joins us now for exclusive chat kathy welcome back to yahoo finance thanks for taking some time ahead of the long weekend here uh i wish you could see my notes because i have pages of them uh but before we get into some of your your recent picks and things you've been buying talk to us about a little bit about the labor report today came in below estimates you know is this the type of report where you have to think take a step back as an investor and rethink any of the strategies you've been putting on well we believe there are three reasons that the employment report was weaker than expected and one of them is the delta variant of the coronavirus we saw leisure and hospitality flat uh the employment gains there there weren't any that's a big change uh we also know supply chain problems uh are at work here certainly we're hearing a lot about that from the auto sector uh many sectors uh and we saw in manufacturing the the total hours worked we're down 0.5 percent so that suggests some uh possible supply chain problems or and here's where i think some people might be missing the mark we think there is an inventory buildup out there but the inventories let's just take autos for example are not on dealer lots i i get a lot of uh people uh pushing back against the notion that there's an underlying weakness developing in the auto sector and one of the main reasons we believe it's happening is because the inventory is in our driveways or garages we spent the last year trying to avoid mass transit so used cars went crazy to the upside and as did new car sales much stronger than expected now i think however there's another reason and that is uh the consumer is thinking about his or her next purchase is it going to be gas powered or electric and we believe that electric vehicle sales will be up more than uh 50 percent this year perhaps much more than 50 percent uh and that's a global number while traditional auto sales are basically flat it seems like they're they're going to be up very slightly if at all on an on an average annual basis kathy so let's say uh let's stay on the auto sector of course one of your top holdings in your in your funds is tesla and it's been a long time holding uh for you given the chip shortage that we have seen are you concerned about tesla missing any any delivery estimates this year um well it's if we're right on what's going on with the the gas powered uh vehicle sales i i think uh that that auto manufacturers are going to be cutting back and that will free up some of the chip in chip supply that might have gone to gas powered vehicles for the electric vehicle manufacturers who are growing uh dramatically here so uh i've been amazed at uh the way that elon musk and team has been have been able to uh work around the chip shortage because it's not just uh the most sophisticated chips it's microcontrollers so they've been uh their ingenuity has been at work in terms of substitution uh we know it's a scramble but if we're right on what's going on with the traditional auto sector the gas powered set a part of the market some of that chip supply will free up for the electric vehicle manufacturers kathy when you originally came out with your uh prediction on tesla i i believe it was a seven thousand dollar price target really gm ford toyota they weren't doing much in the electric vehicle space but now that they are i look forward to electric pickup looks pretty cool to me you know how does that impact the longer term growth profile of a company like tesla well i think it validates it uh our our according to our estimates uh based on wright's law which we can get into if you'd like it's a relative of moore's law um we believe that electric vehicle sales will uh shoot up from 2.2 million units last year looks like they'll be three six or three 8 this year to 40 million in 2025 as electric vehicle prices uh drop below gas powered uh car prices on a like-for-like basis uh and our concern about that 40 million number was that other auto manufacturers were not uh responding rapidly enough now what has happened is china with a big focus on the environment is subsidized subsidizing electric vehicles aggressively and the supply therefore is starting to shift up so no uh we think this is good news it's validating this uh massive move from the internal combustion engine and gas-powered cars we sold 80 to 90 million of them in the last few years per year to electric which as i said is at such a low base right now 2.2 last year maybe 3 6 or 3 8 this year all the way to 40 million i i think um it just tells us that the exponential growth trajectory uh is in place and uh and given the way china is subsidizing we could be conservative wow interesting there and just staying on that uh kathy it's been an impressive year for tesla uh several quarters of profits u.s business coming along doing good business in china to your point i mean do you see tesla's fair value above 7 000 just given the year they have had so that original number was on the old stock we've had a five for one split so our new number our base case for for tesla with this on the split stock is three thousand uh the stock right now is a little over uh 700 on the old basis that would be 15 000.
so what that tells you uh is our estimate for tesla's uh going down from 2000 year end 2017 to today has actually gone up fairly dramatically around the world interesting kathy before we uh head to break real quick here i do want to ask you about one more name actually a couple more but one right here zoom uh you were in the market picking up zoom shares if i'm correct this week after that earnings report looked good i think some investors were concerned about the slowdown there what did they miss and what do you see yes so we think there's a transformation taking place in the communication sector many people think of zoom as nothing more than these video sessions uh that that you're on you and i are on right now but it's becoming much more than that we think it's going to with zoom phone take over the pbx system in other words it is going to start taking more share of the communications uh stack in in technology and uh enterprise communications is a 1.5 trillion dollar opportunity uh and we believe that zoom is um on its way to usurping uh the role of players like um like cisco for example uh in the years ahead so it's a very big story it is not just about video and stay at home or even hybrid uh it's it's much bigger than that you know is it partially though to kathy a play on we are likely to be in this hybrid work model for five years the next decade who knows and you know what we may see more pandemics is that is that part of the play on zoom um yes but i i really think that they're spreading their wings within the communications equipment realm uh which as i just mentioned is the largest uh part of the tech stack uh 1.5 trillion we think they're going after that and that that one of the reasons they they got their nose under the tent is because of what happened during the coronavirus this was the best performing communications tool we had any of us i i know i much prefer uh when i i know that my next call is going to be on zoom as opposed to one of the legacy players because uh it just works better and the user interface is much better as well so they got their nose under the communications equipment tent uh that way and now they're just going to move forward very dramatically we think from there i do love zoom i've actually figured out how to use it uh on my phone kathy believe it or not uh but do do hang out hang with us you have kindly agreed to hang with us for another block we'll be right back with more from kathy wood on yahoo finance
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