저자: TradingBytes411진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼이 미국 금리가 6%까지 오를 수 있다고 말했다는 보도를 소개하며 이것이 은행에 유리하다는 점을 짚는 영상. 금리 전망 배경: 1월 고용지표와 PPI·PCE가 예상보다 강했고, 물가 하락은 있었으나 충분히 빠르지 않으며 파월 연준은 긴축 기조를 유지하고 있어 향후 3번의 회의에서 0.25%p 추가 인상 가능성이 언급됨. 은행 수익 구조: 은행은 예금 금리와 투자 수익률 간 차이로 돈을 벌기 때문에 금리가 높을수록 유리하다고 설명. JPM 차트 분석(주봉): 현재 가격이 141 부근의 주요 지지·저항선에 있고 8주/13주 단순이동평균선 근처에서 지지받은 흐름. 일봉 상 122 레벨이 의미 있는 수준으로 언급됨. 가격 시나리오: 현재 명확한 매매 셋업은 없으며 1~2주 관망 필요. 상방 돌파 시 단기 목표 152, 하방 이탈 시 목표 128(또는 120 레벨 언급). 다음 실적발표는 약 두 달 후(4월)로 예정. 진행자 결론: JPM은 고금리를 선호하며, 금리가 계속 오르면 152 방향으로의 돌파를 예상. 리스크: 과거 실적 강세 후 이익실현 매물로 가격이 되돌아온 점, 차트 패턴상 하락 조정 가능성 존재.
다듬은 글
Jamie dimon chairman of the board and CEO of JPMorgan Chase and Company recently made headlines when he said he expects U.S interest rates could hit six percent in an interview with CNBC on Thursday JP Morgan is one of the largest banks in the world with over 2.5 trillion dollars in assets and Jamie is well respected on Wall Street after 15.
plus years so we've seen in recent weeks we had a very strong jobs report in January we had uh PPI that came out stronger than expected we recently had the pce index report come out stronger than expected now yes all are down since mid last year but they're not coming down fast enough and we have still a very hawkish Jerome Powell saying that he's not going to let off the break anytime soon there might be another minimum quarter point interest rate increase over the next three meetings that should pan out through April June time frame so how was Jamie and JP Morgan going to benefit if interest rates continue to go up well Banks profit more when interest rates are higher by capitalizing on the discrepancy between the interest they pay to customers and the interest they may gain on investments when investing in short-term interest rates a bank May pay its customers one whole percent less than it makes and so that's how Banks make money yes you can give them your money if you want you know the current market value of Interest but then they're gonna go out and look for a higher interest rate return and they might even give you less than the market value of interest rates that's going for so nevertheless High interest rates are favorable for banks see where the price of JB Morgan is headed next so since the lows of October JP Morgan has rallied along with the rest of the broader Market you have this area here where price is currently at the 140.
right that was resistance at one point but I'm not going to mark that on a lower time frame price is in an uptrend let's go to the weekly chart okay so when I look at the weekly chart it is worth noting price is at a major support resistance level at 141. here's why we have price hitting this level that was resistance you have price hitting that level again pulls back eventually breaches the level price returns to that level bounces higher before breaches it price returns to the level drops price is back at the level so maybe price is just pausing before moving higher maybe this is going to serve as resistance again see that price did bounce off the 8 simple oh it's 13 simple moving average okay let's go down to the daily chart the only level of Interest I see on the daily would be the 122 level so let's mark that do you know that in blue for the Daily where we had a rally in price was pausing and then a rally continued taking out this pivot High volume was okay not the greatest so I won't mark it as daily buyers but it's worth denoting all right let's see what price is looking like on the upside you don't really see anything special price might just be pulling back kind of like what it did in November all right you had this pull flag before price resumed it's probably setting up for another low flag this time might be different right because it is at a major support resistance level so we just have to see how things go this long range green candle was a pop on earnings and that was in late January you had profit takers moving price back to the origin of the move higher you have earns again in April so you have some it's about two months before the next earnings announcement is scheduled so we just have to wait for price to tell us what direction it wants to go next but right now there is no trade setup just have to wait a week or two but if I was to pull back to the weekly chart if we do break out Targo to be at the 152 level if we do break down I have a Target at the 120 level so let's put short term Target at the one say from 152.
to the upside downside we have a Target at 128. the price breaks down so that's the assessment on JPMorgan again it loves High interest rates if rates continue to go higher then I would anticipate a Breakout to get to the short-term Target at 152. until next time
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