저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 미국 부채한도 협상이 결렬되면 시장 변동성이 커지고 Russell 2000은 하락, VIX는 상승할 수 있어 풋옵션·VIX 상승 베팅으로 대비하라는 주장. [배경] 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)이 부채한도 디폴트를 '잠재적 재앙'으로 보고 사내 워룸을 운영하며 협상 타결을 촉구했다는 보도를 소개. 디폴트 시 계약·담보·청산 시스템에 영향이 가고 글로벌 금융시장에 파급될 수 있다는 우려. 백악관 경제팀은 단기 디폴트만으로도 일자리 50만 개 감소, GDP 0.6% 감소를 경고. [리스크 요인] 지역은행 위기가 겹쳐 있으며, 다이먼은 파산한 First Republic 인수 이후 추가 인수에는 관심이 없다고 언급. [진행자 논리] 6월 1일 디폴트 마감이 다가올수록 변동성이 커지고 주식 매도세와 VIX 상승이 나타날 것으로 봄. 2021년 부채한도 이슈 때 S&P500은 17%, Russell 2000은 24% 하락했고 VIX는 약 20에서 50 부근까지 올랐다는 과거 사례를 근거로 제시. [Russell 2000(IWM)] 지역은행 익스포저가 약 10% 있어 취약하다고 판단. 월봉상 170 부근 지지·저항 구간을 언급하며, 협상 결렬 시 25% 하락한 140 부근까지 빠질 수 있다고 봄. [옵션 전략] 전략 제안: 6월 셋째 주 만기 IWM 풋옵션. 170 행사가는 오픈인터레스트가 많고 유동성이 좋아 가장 합리적이라고 언급. 140 행사가는 '로또'에 가깝다고 평가. [VIX] VXX 콜옵션(6월 만기 ATM 등)으로 VIX 급등 베팅 가능. 과거 2011년 유사 상황에서 약 100% 수익이 났다고 소개. 다만 현재 옵션 프리미엄이 높아 과잉 가격이라고 지적. [결론 및 행동] 협상 결렬이 확실해지면 진입하겠다는 입장. 협상 타결 확신이 있다면 외가격 풋은 불리하다는 점도 언급. [출연자 전망] 진행자 본인은 디폴트 발생 시 140 부근에서 적극 매수(풋 청산 또는 추가 보호) 의향을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
this article is coming from Yahoo finance by way of Fortune Jamie Diamond reveals JP Morgan has a war room that will meet up to three times a day as a potentially catastrophic default approaches so we have six more days until June 1st which is the deadline to see whether the debt ceiling Rises or not if it doesn't um there's going to be some problems in the global economy let's get into the video So Jamie Downey one that the US default would be potentially catastrophic and pleaded with politicians to please negotiate a deal before the country breaches its borrowing cap in early June if the US default fund is debt the co1 and the Thursday interview with Bloomberg TV it would hit contracts collateral Clearing Houses and affect clients definitely around the world Diamond express some hope that the US would be able to negotiate a solution if Market began to worry that a default might happen the closer you get to it you will have panic in terms of Market volatility okay keyword volatility Market volatility and while Panic becomes something that's not good if it gets to that Panic Point people have to react now I'm revealed to Bloomberg that JP Morgan is convening a weekly war room to evaluate the effects of the US default he predicted that the group would start meeting more regularly if the standoff continues moving to daily meetings by around May 21st and then meet three times a day if no solution is reached so what is the debt ceiling Congress sets the ceiling on how much debt the U.S treasury can incur and can pass the legislation that increases the borrowing cap by a given amount okay that might be good for Bitcoin as well if the ceiling is reached the treasury is barred from borrowing more money to cover the expanded obligations of the U.S government that would force the treasury to stop paying for things the U.S government has already committed to pay leading to a default White House economists warned that even a short default would lead to 500 000 loss in jobs and 0.6 reduction in GDP now treasury Janet Yellen has won The Economic Consequences of the USC fault calling it an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making now we also have a banking crisis going on right JP Morgan CEO also referred to another source of economic angst in its interview the current crisis facing Regional Banks Diamond whose company recently acquired the failed first public Bank said it wasn't interested in buying another faltering financial institution we're going to have a lot a blowback having bought First Republic all right so reading between the lines as we get closer to June 1st and if there's no deal there's going to be a lot to Market volatility which means that we'll have a sell-off in equities and the vix which is the fair gauge is going to increase so what Jamie Diamond is saying is go short in particular the Russell now why the Russell well it has about 10 percent exposure to Regional Banks in addition in 2021 when we had the debt ceiling issue the s p dropped 17 but the Russell drop 24 percent uh Market volatility now the vix the fair gauge uh back in 2021 it Rose from around 20 to around 50.
so more than in more than 100 increase so say we don't get a deal let's go to the monthly chart and say if Mark the market volatility mimics 20 11. and the Russell this is the iwm which is the ETF that tracks the Russell so say if this debt ceiling doesn't occur or No Deal is reached and we get a collapse like we did in 2021 25 percent um at current prices at 175 would be in the 140 area now how convenient there are monthly buyers at that level I'm going to set myself an alert now one way to play the iwm you can buy well you can buy the stock if you want to go long the way to play it short is through the option Market and this is the iwn options chain in this case we want to look going out a month to the third week in June but you want to look for puts um okay these are the calls foreign amount um at the money uh the contract going out a month 176 is trading for uh each contract represents 100 shares so it's about 374 dollars now if price were to collapsed to 140 that's a 35 dollar decline 140 you can buy it you can buy yourself protection for um eight dollars now you can see this is the open interest you can see tons of people that already bought protection you can see people that bought and this is smart money people that bought protection at 145.
people that board protection at 150. pivot up our protection at 155 wow look at this 160. wow look at this 165 207 000. 211 000. 180. oh 170 excuse me um now how much would say a 140 contract be for eight dollars like if it price went down to 140 how much would it be so get an idea you go to that the money and you add 40 to that so you get a 216.
and that's about 30 900. so eight dollars I can't even do the math eight dollars if it went down to 140 theoretically it would be worth thirty nine hundred dollars so 3 900 divided by eight I mean you're talking about a 487x return insane insane um but kind of just looking at the open interests most of the volumes at 170.
uh that's fair right that's very fair um you know the 140s is a lotto ticket in my opinion all right now when it comes to the vix again the vix Rose from 20 ish to 48 back in 2011. one way to play that is through uh vix ETF this is the VXX which I have played in the past um going out one month third expiration contract in June uh we want to look like calls so at the money 66 cents now it's down 65 today because of the rally in the stock market but if we ever get a collapse then these are calls they would they would go up in price so 100 return which is what it did in 2011.
maybe you go out to seventy dollars and let's see what we got here all right so I'm not seeing a lot of volume and what's funny is that as you go out the volatility increases the market makers are somewhat pricing in a lot of volatility potentially coming up um just looking at the volume here all right so what would be reasonable we got a lot of volume at the 38 a lot of volume at the 41.
again these are overpriced more than 100 percent but they're breaking in volatility uh let me go back to the Russell calls all right these are the puts okay yeah puts okay so the volatility is a lot less if I had to choose I would play the uh the iwm puts because the volatility is a lot less um it also means that they may not be a market makers that may not be expecting such a drop in price which is why it evolves you know the implied volatility is a lot lower uh the low risk trade is would be closer to at the money right because the probability of your contract getting in the money increases um but if you have conviction in that deal won't get done then you you go out of the money and based on the open interests uh to 170 would probably be the best bet very liquid uh one cent spread um or you can just wait you can wait to see what happens which is what I'm going to do if you actually get a decline in price uh this is Extreme but we've seen extreme things happen I'll be loading up at the 140 level what's worth noting on the monthly chart you have support resistance at the 170 level just letting that caught my eye all right so Jamie Diamond he's wanting of a possible debt ceiling No Deal what's going to happen he's saying between the lines uh buy some protection go short the Russell go along the vix
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