저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼이 포트폴리오의 23%를 담은 로우스(LOW)를 분석하며, 기본적 펀더멘털은 양호하나 차트상 180달러 아래 진입을 기다리라는 의견. 기업·펀더멘털: 로우스는 미국 2위 주택개량 소매업체로 61년 연속 배당 인상. 주가는 장기간 약 40,000%(배당 포함 약 63,000%) 상승. 미국 주택개량 지출은 2013년 약 3,000억 달러였고 올해 두 배 가까이 증가 예상. 매출은 최근 10년간 연평균 약 7%, EPS는 약 20% 성장. 밸류에이션: 2013년 이후 평균 PER 23배였으나 현재 선행 PER 약 14배(성장률 20%→13% 둔화에도 S&P500보다 성장률·PER 면에서 우위). 차트 분석: 월봉·주봉상 약 12~15개월간 횡보(고점 220달러, 저점 180달러 부근). 일봉상 단기 하락추세, 180~220 구간은 매수·매도 균형 상태. 180 아래는 매수세 우위로 판단, 롱 진입 관심 구간으로 제시. 이전 설정한 진입 레벨은 이미 터치된 것으로 언급. 4시간봉 기준 약 170달러 부근이 추가 지지 구간으로 제시되며, 그보다 약 20달러 더 하락을 기다려야 한다는 조건. 숏 관점에서는 거래량이 약해 레벨에 확신이 낮음. 향후 계획: 몇 주간 로우스를 모니터링하며 설정 레벨 도달 여부 확인. 빌 애크먼 팬이라면 그의 보유 사실을 참고하라는 언급. 리스크/조건: 진입은 180달러 이하(특히 170달러 부근) 가격 확인이 전제. 추세 돌파 실패 시 추가 하락 가능성 존재.
다듬은 글
this article comes from the Motley Fool billionaire Bill Ackman has 23 percent of his portfolio in this one stock should you buy it too this was actually a fun article to go over um it's a lot of factual tidbits that I learned about Lowe's so Bill Ackman successful fund manager he's also a celebrity on Wall Street runs the Persian Square Holdings holds 10 billion dollars under management person has 23 percent of its entire assets in lows which is pretty big conviction Lowe's is America's second largest Home Improvement retailer I didn't know this and well-established dividend stocks the company has paid and raised its dividend payout for 61 consecutive years low share price growth has totaled roughly forty thousand percent over the his lifetime if you include the dividends you know we're at 63 000.
is pretty impressive now according to the Harvard study Americans spent about 300 billion in home improvements in 2013. the number is going to go up double the this year now some other fundamentals Revenue has grown by an average of roughly seven percent annually over the last decade and if you think of earnings per share growth that's been averaging about 20 percent annually so after averaging price to earnings ratio of 23 since 2013 stock trades at a forward p e of 14.
annual growth rate was 20 now it's 13 however still beats the s p in terms of growth rate and uh for PE so let's get into the stock to see if you should buy it as well this is the monthly chart of lows and it's kind of been sideways for quite some time going back 12 15 months top most recent tops is 220.
most recent bottoms you can say it's uh 180. I'm going to go down to the weekly chart and the weekly clock weekly chart we can see that it's really really sideways again since April of last year could have played the ranges so to top side a couple times and showed it up about the one that's 220 level you had this gap which got filled back in June of last year let's go down to the daily chart just trying to see if price did break this short term downtrend price might be pulling back to retest for going higher maybe maybe not would have been nice for price to close above the pivot highs to the left that would have increased the probability of price bouncing off of the trend line potentially moving higher but since that didn't happen take these arrows off the chart and I really want to look for an area below the 180 because all in here price is pretty much at equilibrium meaning the buyers equal the sellers below 180.
the sellers are wave the buyers outweigh the sellers below 180 and above 220. the sellers outweigh the buyers buyers if I want to go long I want to look for entry below the yellow line now I believe this got a hit already but this was a beautiful level to go let's see I think it got hit and why do I like it well he had a little bit of basing here and then you if you want to call it a Breakout it was done on a pretty decent volume I think that got hit yeah so that was a great setup we can't use that level any longer we need to actually go lower now I'm going to go to the four hour chart this might be a decent level below now why is this a decent area well this is actually a flip Zone on the four hour chart this was for our sellers The price came back retested the sellers but the buyers eventually won and on the four hour chart the volume is okay you have this green arrow here which is on decent volume so it's all again A Basin candle and then a leg out and that volume is okay it's also if I zoom out to back to the daily chart it gets right below the lows so you have here buying pressure right which tells me that there are bias below the 170 level but you gotta wait for price to drop another 20 or so now shooting opportunities I like the formation you have a drop in price a basic Canon then a drop the volume is very anemic unless you have all this trading to the left so not in love with the level but let's mark it I'll be monitoring lows over the coming weeks to see if any of these levels get hit but if you are a Bill Ackman fan well then you now you know he loves Lowe's and you might level those now too thanks for watching subscribe please like the
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