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카바나(Carvana) 주가 급등의 원인과 향후 전망을 차트로 분석한 영상. 결론: 공매도 세력의 대규모 숏커버링과 레딧발 개인 매수가 겹쳐 급등했으며, 주요 저항선 돌파 후 단기 추세는 상승이지만 저항 구간(56~68달러) 돌파는 어려울 것으로 봄. 차트 흐름: 월봉상 2021년 7월 고점 360달러 대비 현재 수준은 낮음. 주봉에서 20달러 저항 돌파 후 재테스트를 거쳐 상승, 일봉상 6월 26일 재테스트 지지 확인. 급등 배경: 야후 파이낸스 기사 인용, 올해 주가 1000% 상승으로 공매도 세력 손실 20억 달러 이상. 공매도 비율 47%, S3파트너스 기준 숏커버링 추가 발생 예상. 짐 크레이머 발언 인용: 카바나는 재무상태가 매우 취약하고 금리 인상으로 자금조달 비용이 늘어 부실 위험이 크다고 평가. 공매도 세력은 중고차 가격 하락과 부채 문제를 근거로 베팅했으나 개인 투자자들의 매수 집중으로 숏스퀴즈 발생. 기술적 분석: 일봉 주요 지지선(약 36달러 부근)과 이평선이 상향 정렬되어 있어 단기 추세는 상승. 56~68달러 구간은 돌파가 어려울 것으로 판단. 펀더멘털 전망: 부채 구조조정, 중고차 가격 하락, 수요 회복, 금리 안정 기대가 맞물려 흑자 전환 가능성 언급. 비즈니스 모델은 유지될 것으로 긍정 평가. 투자 조언: 카바나는 투기적 종목이며 포트폴리오의 10% 이내로 제한할 것을 권고. 조정 시 36달러 지지 확인 후 매수, 점진적 상승을 기대. 출연자 전망: 단기 상승 추세 유지 가능성은 높으나 56~68달러 돌파는 어렵다는 입장. 저점 매수 전략 선호.
다듬은 글
this is the monthly chart on carvana and it's almost like Circa 2020 with game stock now I had two different opportunities to get long carvana the first one if we go to the weekly chart was when price we had a leg higher two Basin candles and the strong move higher which hit resistance at twenty dollars only to come back and retest what was weekly bias level on top of a daily bias level at 5 50.
he gave buyers not once but a second opportunity to take the stock higher okay so I missed this at six dollars had another opportunity at 20. when price breached and closed above the resistance level at twenty dollars if we scroll down to the daily chart typically when you break out you usually retest the origin of the Breakout and we have that opportunity on June 26th so what's the phenomenon behind this crazy move higher well it's all about the Reddit Wall Street bets community community against Wall Street let's get into the article so this article is coming from Yahoo finance Cabana stock up one thousand percent this year leaving Short sellers with a 2 billion dollar loss so Cabana short sellers have lost more than two billion dollars this year as the stock has rallied a thousand percent this past week on Wednesday slot gained 40 percent on the company announcing a debt exchange deal and release the second quarter results we've got to remember the stock was at four dollars back in late 22.
2022. so according to S3 partners expect more shorts covering today and over the next few days as short so let's look for an exit point to trim the exposure in a very unprofitable trade so if the show's got a cover that means they got to buy their shares which is why we see price continuing to pump sure sellers lost approximately over a little over half a billion dollars on Wednesday's rally however for the year they're down 2.18 billion short interest in Cabana sits at 47 percent that is crazy again this was once a pandemic darling when shares just pumped and pumped and pumped even the downgrade a week or two ago by JP Morgan could not suppress price however let's listen to Jim he does an excellent job explaining this phenomenon we do it let me double down right now I'm constantly asked about socks that are flying and they're not good stocks take carvana the used car the balance sheet from absolute hell it adjusts world so to speak what are going on you're back when the stock was traded three bucks and changed last December there are people who do great work in this market their craft is to examine the balance sheet realize the company have a very hard time paying the interest on the debt maybe presume that it can't make it and certainly it'll only get more difficult the FED keeps raising rates making it more expensive to get financing when you used car because they're based on short rates they smell a good short and why not after that right in carbon I was losing money hand over fish used car prices are going down and they own a lot of used cars of course these guys are disrupting the industry in a fantastic way I love buying a carb from carvana I had to show up at my house I didn't really like it send it back very different from the traditional experience right but those who know the craft who can look at a balance sheet read the FED tell you he leaves and notice the decline in used car prices they know that this company's a corner so they bet against the stock of carvana they shorted whatever they could get a hold of remember you have to borrow the shares before you can sell them short and they invest in carvana going to zero however there's a whole other group of people who know nothing about the quanta stock picking as I just described except that if you buy the stock and buy it and then buy it some more and then continue to buy it and your friends do the same thing then you can sometimes crush the short sellers simply by vacuuming up all the shares that the shorts need to borrow if they want to make the trade stick a crush short means a higher stock and that's why being short is much more difficult than being long so for the week price still closed higher despite the pullback after hitting 57 price currently trades at 45.62 question is is the run-up over or just getting started why just getting started well look at the monthly chart prices hit 360.
back in July of 2021. this is a tough call um all right let's go down to the daily chart all right we got a couple of levels of Interest got the first one right here that is daily sellers which hit once it's pulling back a second time typically when price continues to hit a level multiple times eventually gets gets weak until it gets broken all right so I think this level is going to be taken out at some point but then you got a level on top of a level so typically levels and levels are really strong when the first one gets weak it has the second one to lean on if you have a long a long game view on carvana you're looking you can look at this level to potentially hold again all the moving averages are still are pointing up turning and pointing up including the 200-day moving average these moving averages serve as support so you have price in the middle between daily sellers level and a daily bias level you have momentum up you have the trend up at least short term if you want to put odds in your favor you go with the trend yes there are many counter Trend traders that make money but a lot do not you easiest way to trade is the trend is your friend so look at this level to potentially hold now getting through 56 and 68 is going to be tough but again two years ago was at 360 dollars this is the gap up on earnings we had another Gap up our earnings in May had a gap down in February the fact that they restructured their debt the fact that used car prices coming down the fact that demand is picking up because used car prices are coming down the fact that interest rates are probably going to settle out now gives carvana the opportunity to become profitable again or profitable first time moving forward I love the business model I think it's here to stay I think kavana is a speculative play but 10 of your portfolio should go to speculative place if that is the case Buy on pullbacks look for 36 dollars to hold look for the grind higher to be slow as at least I missed this move higher thanks for watching subscribe please like the video
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