저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2월 PCE 물가 지표가 시장 예상에 부합했으나 전월치 상향 수정이 있었고, 6개월 연율은 2.9%로 목표치를 웃돌아 인플레이션 완화에 불확실성이 남았다. 개인소비지출은 크게 늘었고 개인소득은 부진해 소비 여력에 의문이 있다. 발표자는 연준이 올해 최소 2회 인하할 것으로 보며, 이 보고서가 인하 축소나 확대를 뒷받침하지는 않는다고 본다. 시장은 월요일 이 데이터를 긍정적으로 받아들일 것으로 전망했다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here understanding today's report is a little bit of a doozy at first glance it seems like we get bang on expectations if not a better report but there is a counterveiling argument that's being made by some on Wall Street including some whom a lot of you like getting updates from so we're going to talk about that person's opinion along with the data right now then we'll talk about what the implications are for the Federal Reserve and of course we have to remember what the federal reserve's goals are along with what they've told us they would do so we have to keep that in mind to take an objective look at exactly what's going on so first when we got pce inflation numbers or as we were expecting them yesterday we remember that the February data is really just based off of the CPI February data and it's not really new information that's why most of the time we don't really pay that much attention to PC but it is important because it does factor into being a the fed's prefer inflation gauge and it's a tool for a lot of fed charting tools like the multivariant core inflation tool from the New York fed which I actually think is pretty dang good so even though it inherits a lot of its data from CPI making CPI the most important for most people pce is really that report the FED likes because of how it manipulates all their little fancy charts and so what we ended up getting is we had an expectation that we were going to get a headline month-over-month increase of 0.4 we got3 so we actually got better news on the headline month-over-month figure that's good but that headline number is affected by some of the volatile measures in food and energies like gas and oil the year-over-year figure came on bang on expectations 2 and a half% the core which strips out that more volatile food and energy component came bang on expectations three and the core deflator year-over-year came bang on expectations point8 but we had some downsides here that I didn't really love at first I saw this I go okay cool slightly lower and then match match match match match that seems relatively good but there was a devil in the details there was actually a revision of the prior pce number for January the prior pce number for January was reported to be 0.4 that was revised up to 0.5 and the prior year year number was 2.8 which was revised up to 2.9 now those revisions along with today's data are thrown into the beautiful Wall Street Journal charts as put together by Nick T Nick T has some thoughts on well some of the data we got this morning let's take a look at some of his posts and try to then reconcile all of this with what this means for the fed and stocks and markets in general so right here you have Nick T giving us an update on what some of the numbers are he indicates that the 12-month pce rate in February was the lowest in 3 years which is fantastic 2.8 the lowest in 3 years wonderful however the six Monon rate came in at 2.9% in February that was as low as 1.9% in December and 2.6% in January so when we look over here here at this sort of beigy looking color we could see we dropped below fed target only to shoot right back above it right here at that 2.9% level so the recent 6mon period along with the recent 3month period is becoming a little bit more aggressive on inflation uh when we look here at the pce index for February we see it up 33% in February the 12month rate ticked up to 2.5% from from 2.45 or from 24 from January and the 6month annualized rate was 2 and a half which is actually down from January so a tiny little bit of give and take in some of these numbers here and I think when we look at the charts it's pretty clear yes we're going to have volatility around these numbers but we're probably settling somewhere with inflation between 2 and 1/2 to 3 1/2% okay what does that mean why is that a big deal well we can jump on over to our pce report and in the actual PC report we won't actually get any insights into why that's a big deal so one said we'll use it as a little bit of a notepad for us to draw some ideas on but I want you to first know what Bloomberg economists think they think the numbers we got today actually reiterate getting a cut in June and getting three for this year so they think we're going to firm up price Ing and they think we're going to firm up and reiterate yes we're getting three Cuts this year they actually think that will be bullish for people who want to buy bonds or maybe even interest rate sensitive stocks keeping in mind that this is bitcoin's reaction which well as usual it's kind of all over the place and given that it's at 699 I can't really say that trading in this range is any kind of meaningful indicator so instead let's just try to understand for a moment what is the Federal Reserve trying to do this is the pce report by the way you can see the largest contributors were as usual Financial Services Insurance Transportation uh led by air transportation housing and utilities and motor vehicle parts led by light new trucks obviously the cybertruck now let's go in over here and let's make a few notes the very first thing that we have to understand is we have to understand what's the fed's goal okay this is really important we've talked about this before we have to understand this uh and there are a few goals that the Federal Reserve has so I'm going to list these out right here uh so uh okay here we go and uh there we go okay so a few things we've got number three we'll go in reverse order we have an expiring coupon code on Sunday for the stocks and psych and all of the courses on building your wealth including byell alerts we've got metkevin.com Weeble where you can get up to $3,000 in totally free stock if you check out this beautiful delicious tra platform here we used to trade on and of course lifee yeah paid Partnerships okay I had to get those out of the way so what is the fed's goal well the federal reserve's goal is very simple let's erase this and let's make this clear let's say the neutral rate of interest is 3% and let's say that inflation is running at 25% well what should the Federal Reserves rate be 5 and a half per.
whoops that was funny kind of flipflop there we go it disappeared on me for a second about five and I see that the hackers are coming in that would give us a rate of about 5 and a half% that's where we are now well what if the neutral rate is actually 2.5% well then we should have an interest rate increase down to 5% that would be the equivalent of one to two rates whether you're measuring from the bottom or the top okay uh rate Cuts basically this is probably where the federal reserve's head is and the Federal Reserve probably probably thinks that even when we look at the Nick T charts we're probably bobbing around that 2 and 1 half level and so we're probably setting up for at least one to two cuts assuming the neutral rate of interest is 2 1 12% and inflation is settling around 2% that's my take that's my belief now what does that mean well it reiterates yes some cuts for this year does this report iterate that we need four five or six Cuts Absol absolutely not in fact when we look at personal spending it exploded personal spending came in at 08 versus the 0.5 expected retail inventories coming at 0.5 versus the 04 expected inventories and spending exploded yet personal income somehow missed again coming at at.
3 versus 04 probably because people are spending still more of the savings they have or they're just taking on more debt which obviously isn't sustainable in the long term but for a short-term play is this a bad Catalyst that all of a sudden we need to get a bunch lower rate Cuts or or or a bunch more rate Cuts because the economy's falling apart no econom is not falling apart is this a report that says we are going for no cuts no absolutely not this is a report that actually probably reiterates somewhere between two to some I I would say I would say probably two cuts because I think there's an equivalent argument to argue for one cut this year equivalent argument to argue for three it probably reiterates at least two cuts for this year so yes two cuts are likely to begin this year whether they begin in June or not will be predicated by the next inflation reports so make sure to subscribe to the channel I'll keep you updated with everything that's moving on in terms of what I think the market is going to do on Monday actually think the Market's going to like this data on Monday I don't think this is a seld the news uh set of information it is April 1st so it's the beginning of the new quarter but any kind of rebalancing theoretically should have already been done so I don't really have a negative Catalyst for April 1st April 2nd Tesla's deliveries that might be different anyway thanks so much for watching we'll talk to you soon a
Comments 0