저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 비합리적으로 보이며 실적 시즌 이후 하락 가능성을 경계하지만 확신은 없음. [거시·심리] 진행자들은 Burry의 매도 트윗 이후 불안해져 보유 물량을 대거 정리했다고 밝힘. 시장 심리는 긍정적이어서 경제 문제 대비 과도하게 오른 것으로 봄. 'S&P500 410선'을 중요 지지선으로 보고 돌파가 확인되면 상승 돌파로 해석. [실적] 구글: 매출 소폭 미달(유튜브 약 3억 달러 하회), 광고 업종 전반 부진. 아마존: 리비안 손실 반영으로 순익 부진, 1분기 가이던스 크게 하회, AWS 성장 둔화(9월 27%에서 감속). 애플: 아이폰 매출 8% 감소, 전체 매출 약 40억 달러 미달. 그러나 마진 개선으로 주가 반등, Morgan Stanley 긍정 평가 영향. 애플은 맥·아이패드 두 자릿수 감소 전망 제시. 메타: 효율성 강조 발언에 주가 급등, 진행자는 153달러에 매도. [종목 포지션] 진행자는 메타(153), AMD(195 대비 50센트 낮은 가격), 엔비디아(195 매도, 현재 211) 등을 매도했다고 언급. 바이두(Baba)는 보유 유지. 애플 갭하락 후 반등, 구글은 200일선 아래에서 등락 중. [리스크·조건] 장기 주가 되돌림 시 재진입 가능성 언급. 거래량 대비 큰 윅 캔들은 매도 압력 신호로 해석. 기술적으로는 돌파를 믿어야 하나 현금화 상태 유지. [출연자 전망] 진행자 모두 단기 하락 가능성을 열어 두었으나 방향을 단정하지 않음. 'Two Stupid Guys'가 내세운 시장 경계 입장.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys trade stocks I am Dylan and I'm Vinnie and we're going to take a look at what I would consider Madness in the market not allow stuff making sense we're going to take a look at this whole last week there's a bunch of stuff that happened bunch of earnings reports this is not a deep dive we're going to look at the chart and where I think it's going and why this makes no sense two Supercar Street stocks all right I threw the Mad Hatter on here I feel like I feel like it's appropriate we're in Wonderland is that what you're trying to say Madness we're descending into madness close I love it I threw stew from Hangover because he's like you know what the hell's going in the back of the car it's great it's lost the entire time perfect yes yeah it's just super confused um before we get into this Michael burry we've already done a video not getting you know go crazy he tweeted cell right and I'm going to show you how that messed with my psyche pretty big um but he then so this is the tweet and then he deletes Twitter yep exactly and the trip before this too was was that chart where it was kind of back in 2001 where it looked like we were heading for a massive sell-off is what he had used yeah so is this a deletion out of shame or is this a deletion out of he deletes his Twitter every three months and it's time we don't know but uh you know let's let's look into some stuff here okay so Google about 14 of the Spy reported earnings this week it was pretty wild we're not going to do deep Dives but just to understand the actual technical technical analysis here's a quick quick summary right Google did not meet Revenue they were a little bit low not crazy YouTube was actually kind of low they were about 300 million off that one Google Cloud not terribly off um you know it's been pretty broad across like the whole advertising sector that you know everyone's been feeling that pain yeah it's it's it's nothing nothing insane they miss a little stuff but this was a little bit alarming this is the year over year percent change in Quarry 11 Revenue since 2018.
yeah okay that look interesting yeah massive pandemic pull forward and then you know the kind of drifted back towards that Baseline back it's not not unique to them though that a lot of major tech companies are having similar struggles right now so I agree but not a lot of tech companies this big because there are other tech companies in this realm that do not have a cool looking slide graph where you could just like step down and have a great time perfect um Amazon now the reason why I look at these is they responded extremely differently to each other okay Amazon did not have a good time they had a little bit of you of the worst time of these companies I reported rivian is still haunting them okay so basically they're largely the reason for weaker than expected profits um if anyone has ever made a mistake in the market I always say like I made fubo in 2021 just remember Amazon a giant billion dollar company bought rivien at like the highest price you could so don't feel bad about yourself um AWS slightly low not crazy and first quarter guidance was hella low not good all right yeah very weak let me uh move my your face so just real quick Amazon sales 142 billion this is just showing the revenue uh the rivian thing uh basically Amazon lost 2.7 billion fully this is for full year sales including a 12.7 billion loss related to rivian shares it's just what are you gonna do man yeah I'm profitable EV companies have fallen out of favor profitable ones have however been doing great this year that's true yeah ah yeah kind of which one Tesla is kind of my joke there that's what I think oh yeah great this year down like all right Amazon web services uh you know they were a little bit down but the big thing here is they're decelerating from 27 growth in September okay once again this is not unique to them Microsoft's having the same issue all right but it is a big core aspect of their business now here's where this gets interesting Apple okay iPhones decline eight percent year over year you can see all just the synopsis Revenue they're off by about four billion adjusting earnings a little bit slow iPhone Revenue off by 3 billion Mac Revenue off by 2 billion iPad actually did quite well wearables off by three billion Services about in line okay that was a little bit surprising for how they ended up reacting now we'll look at the chart but they had a great day on the earnings call they have the the reasons for their issues were a strong dollar which is everybody continuing production issues in China that's legitimate they've got some problems and macroeconomic issues I don't know just look at what Intel says every quarter of like the last time I've been saying that one for a while oh that's too true it hurts sorry Benny all good um so they popped they they were down about three to four percent after earnings but then they had a great day like a pretty what looked like Unstoppable day and a lot of people are saying it's it's because of what Morgan Stanley said and what other people were looking as we believe Apple's ability to post the highest gross margin in a decade despite seeing Revenue decline is impressive moving forward only going to get better and um this is just them saying the underlying drivers of Apple's model remain robust right yes apple apple even particularly some of their higher end products within the iPhone category that they could not meet Demand with because of Supply constraints so they had a solid growth margin and they weren't even selling their top dollar stuff that's why it's kind of interesting to me it is the this part was kind of interesting they did offer data points they don't ever go into like oh what they think is going to do but they did offer data points on performance expectations they're expecting Mac and iPad sales both to decline double digits from the year earlier period and iPhone 2 also declined from what it already had declined I thought that was pretty interesting now before we get into this meta Vinnie can do a brief synopsis on meta so I had a fan over 20 percent now their their financials were like okay um but I think it was more the tone that was the major driver beyond that because Mark Zuckerberg really has said that he is embracing efficiency and that you know he is not throwing caution to the wind and throwing the whole company YOLO on metaverse he really is trying to drive profits and return money for shareholders and the filing shareholders have started to believe him a little bit that's why you saw that massive rally in my opinion it's more of a perception thing than it was the actual numbers from the business got it okay and it was it was big we're gonna go over that um it was huge now I'm not gonna lie you can say that this is if we never revisit these prices then this is definitely my mistake for the year you get one a year right um bury tweeted out the cell thing and I I got a little bit nervous because I'm like ah I have the same levels I don't I don't know about this so I sold all my stuff this last week okay except Baba I ain't never selling Baba that's and Bobby was all went down yeah but they went up so much they needed to correct it I know they were up 100 in like three months um uh so I did sell meta like an idiot at 153 that was a big mistake honestly I had listened to Zuckerberg's earring support last quarter it was so bad I just did not think that they were going to turn it around efficacy wise because they were putting so much money so I was like I think we can get a little bit worse out of this um AMD we didn't go into it because they didn't have a big a bigger position the Spy but I sold it at like 50 cents below where it's at Nvidia I sold at 195 they're at 211.
okay now if we never revisit the prices I'm gonna be sad this can be a problem yeah um I'm gonna show you this next but it's possible we could be having to Pivot downwards in the market not likely okay I also hate these because these are so stupid subjective yeah well you know that 410 level in the Spy was a big one we were really looking at it it looks like we broke it so we brought that for sure yeah this is me grasma straws baby um this is Peter Lynch this is a story of my life if we never revisit these prices all right Dylan why'd you try to time the market because I'm one of the people that lose money trying to anticipate Corrections that's why yep yep yeah yeah I'd like to say let's learn but I have a feeling that I might repeat that same stupid mistake at some point in my future but for the moment it's it makes sense it really does uh I I also sold because it the market is not making rational logical sense for how bad the economic problem is in my opinion and whenever that happens I just I just want to leave like I just I don't I don't like where this is going you know if I miss out fine it is what it is I'm young I'll get back in at some other point right um here's the Spy all right so we have this big gap boom we actually went up I thought we were going to be screwed here and we actually put in a spinning top right against my price where's my exit price um I did not cover my shorts because I wanted to see there's 12 percent of the Spy reporting that's huge so I figured hey I could cover them well I could lose another 200 bucks whatever so this was actually kind of interesting um it it doesn't mean a lot that we're going to be going down but one thing I wanted to show you Apple stupid Apple look at this dude jeez they they had gapped down by the way to here at one point after oh after hours yeah yeah I know the initial numbers were not very promising it's all in that sentiment man it's sentiment and sentiment is positive right now that that's the thing that's hard to quantify it really really is now one thing give me hope Google if you have these little hop-ups just went right below this 200 moving average by the way guys if you're new to trading there's 200 moving averages it's the sexiest thing on the planet it's just so pretty Amazon you have a big pivot here going downwards meta you just have depression but we also have two spinning tops kind of a big deal like I said especially when you have that much volume thrown it means that you have a lot of sellers pushing downwards okay you if you have a gap up like that and then you immediately come down on high volume remember the stock on the cues for instance this much volume is just going slowly grinding up between the Battle of buyers and sellers when you have this it means there's a big battle and all the way back down okay in the same day so you moved almost twice the length on the actual volume it's important to remember that all right huh big old Wick big old Wick um where do I I just realized what that sounds like yeah great sorry guys I just I just had my my daughter was born like 20 hours ago no 48 hours ago so I'm very tired I haven't slept yet um which by the way I will not be timing the market and her account that's going to be important yeah we're gonna do a video on that yeah we're gonna hold you to that one okay now it matters to me all right now long call options all right guys let me know uh what you guys think this was is a very very weird week um I really truly don't know where we stand Vinnie where are we going from here do you know yeah is the breakout for real that's what's through this you know I I yeah basically from a technical standpoint I have to kind of believe it but have I put all my money back in no I took money out man yeah yeah I took like a medical bills 20K out all right guys uh stay safe have a good one catch you next one
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