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Tom Lee was on CNBC again today and essentially said that stocks are about to crash. I actually think this is the opportunity of a lifetime. Not last year, not in two years, but right now. So listen to what Tom Lee just said. I will share my thoughts and perspectives on why this is the opportunity of a lifetime.
Let's start with earnings, because you said that earnings for the third quarter will grow by almost 30%. The counterargument is that the second quarter is the best we've had, and that earnings should now take into account everything from rate hikes to regulation and competition from China. This should somehow be reflected in the forecast.
Both yes and no. I mean, third-quarter profits are up 29%–that's really impressive. Maybe half of it will be organic. Um, I think it's a mistake to assume that if growth slows, stocks will deflate. If the S&P can maintain 10% earnings growth forever, the market will grow by 10% per year. So, he doesn't need to increase profits at an accelerated pace .
I think the markets are already skeptical about earnings as the P /E ratio has declined this year . Profit for 2027 started at 350. Now it is close to 420. Profit increase of almost 22%. The market grew by only 12%. So, we had a 10% P/E decline . Let's consider the normal yield and this real yield, but at what point does the stock market start to be interested in a 10-year yield above 5%, maybe even higher, at six?
Uh, I mean, the market doesn't like 5% 10-year bonds, and it certainly won't like 6% 10- years. I mean, it's a huge pressure and competition for profitability against stocks. But, I think there is a clue. The fact that the Nasdaq is reaching all-time highs and cryptocurrency is rising . I think this tells me that the increase in yields may be temporary.
So, does this mean that markets are used to rates at 5%? And if, for example, the Fed or if the trajectory of rate hikes is done in a measured manner, then the markets can actually tolerate that. Yes, I mean 5% is not a problem for the stock market because the real growth is very strong. Hmm, I think inflation is currently experiencing peak inflation.
I mean, that's kind of the Fed's point of view, and a lot of economists are emphasizing the temporary impact that's affecting the CPI right now . I think 10- year bonds at five don't make sense. You just had a chart here showing that France's 10-year bond is 4 8 or 4 5. I mean, how can the cost of debt in the US be 50 basis points higher than in France, right?
So I think something very strange is happening in the US. Uh, you know, it's pretty clear that there's a short-term momentum against U.S. bonds, which is pushing up yields. Again , that's probably why NASDAQ and cryptocurrencies are going up, because they don't see any sustainable bets in this. Did September's employment data confirm that something is cracking in the story of resilience/ exceptionalism regarding the US economy?
Yes, September employment data somewhat confirms a broader trend. I mean, before, job growth was 200,000 a month. In 2026, it averaged about 60,000 per month. I would hardly say that this is an economic boom. So does the Fed really need to suppress the economy so much by making three hikes this year?
So, Tom Lee today essentially defended what he said yesterday, also on CNBC. In short, Tom Lee expects growth. Tom Lee says the markets are overly negative. And while I agree with that , and Tom Lee didn't elaborate on it today, Tom Lee believes that if we're going to have a speed bump , it could be in October.
I actually disagree with that . I think if we could have a speed bump , it would be after the midterm elections. The growth after the midterm elections could last until around mid-November. By mid- November, the war with Iran could start again if it doesn't end. And that's the only caveat I'll give you here: I think it's pretty easy to make a bullish prediction with all the information available.
Profits are strong. Artificial intelligence is alive and well, you could say. The economy is fine. Consumer potential has practically not changed. A lot of good things are happening right now. And the markets are overly pessimistic . Markets are expecting too many Fed rate hikes. Treasury bond yields are too high.
They were destined to fall. But if the war with Iran starts in mid- November, I mean, I don't see a positive scenario before the end of this year. Oil will rise. Treasury bonds will rise. Expectations of rate hikes and inflation expectations will increase. And it will be very difficult to achieve that kind of {quote} growth at the end of the year if that happens.
But that doesn't even explain why I think this is a unique opportunity . Why I am optimistic now. We have washed out the internal factors in the markets. Bond yields will likely fall. Strong profits. Bullish seasonal trends. Raising rates is being pushed back. Investors underestimate the expansion of the topic.
And the risk after the midterm elections, which will disappear after November 3. And those are really the reasons why I think we can recover in October to about mid-November. And yes, I think this could be one of those explosive upward movements. Now, if the war with Iran ends, this is where things will get really crazy.
Today, Qatari officials reported that talks between the US and Iran are ongoing. Washington and Tehran are exchanging messages, with Cutter acting as a mediator. So we don't really know what stage this conflict is at. We don't know if it might end soon. We don't know what's going on there. All we really know is that a third aircraft carrier is headed to the Middle East, and that sounds very escalating.
Although this could be one of those situations where we're just trying to put pressure on Iran, make them feel pressured to make a better deal. But this unique opportunity I'm talking about actually has nothing to do with war with Iran. I think it has more to do with artificial intelligence and the current opportunity that lies before us.
If you're investing right now, if you're watching this video and you're an investor, you're part of the biggest revolution that's ever happened. I have my own strong opinions about AI. I think within AI you will see both bull and bear markets. But I don't think the bubble will ever burst. I think Anthropic and OpenAI, their IPOs, pose some risks.
I've talked about this on the channel before, but most enterprise use of AI will not be at OpenAI and Anthropic. Why? Because of pricing and open source competition. If you can do the same work across 80% of your business functions with an open source model that costs a fraction of the Frontier model, you 'll use the open source model, right?
This will be better for your business. This will make your business more profitable, and you could argue that it actually distributes the profits to medium-sized companies, you know, who are the ones who will benefit more from AI than Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic , OpenAI, Frontier Labs will have their place at the negotiating table, right?
They have military applications, pharmaceutical applications such as drug development, solving complex problems for businesses. There will be an option to use Frontier AI, but it won't be a big enough market opportunity to justify the valuations they have now. So, I think ultimately Anthropic and OpenAI, when we look back in 5 years, we'll say, "Hmm, that was a failure, wasn't it?" These companies did not live up to the hype.
But by then, it will be about robotics. It's going to be about, you know, even chips, and even maybe memory, energy, okay? And about regular companies that use artificial intelligence and create things with artificial intelligence that we do n't even know about yet. Wearable devices. I think wearables will also be a big feature of artificial intelligence.
So it's not like, oh my God, Anthropic, OpenAI, they burst the bubble, it's over . No, I think OpenAI and Anthropic could go public, their stock could drop 50%, they could stay there for years, and other industries would pick up the AI baton. And the areas that I'm very optimistic about right now are cybernetics, where more surface area equals more market opportunity.
It's pretty simple, but JP Morgan said their biggest risk today is cyber threats, with artificial intelligence increasing the need for cybersecurity more than 10 times. I mean, that's what JP Morgan says. This applies to all companies everywhere. I think that while many cyber stocks have been successful, they still don't take into account the long-term possibility of, uh, artificial intelligence with cyber AI software.
As intelligence becomes commercialized through open source models, the real source of value will be software tools that can charge for it . Um, think about it, you know, I do n't know. There are probably many examples for this, but it's like the internet, right? Um, if you run an internet business, you pay a couple hundred dollars a month for internet.
Internet companies are not big winners. You're doing an online business, right? Um, so the internet is very commercialized at the moment . It is very cheap. It's very easy to access in, uh , you know, the modern world. But it is the force that controls everything. I think that AI tools and large language models are just a commercialized tool.
I think the real value lies in who can charge for it and what additional tools are built on top of it. OK? And I think this is where AI software wins. If we think about the value levels, you know, open source models, no matter how cheap they are , that's not where the value really lies. It's in the companies that use it to be more profitable, to be more motivated businesses , to increase revenue and profitability, right?
So, this is where AI software comes in. This will be one of the biggest winners of AI in the long run, and no one realizes it yet. Automation, I think real automation or digital technologies like using AI to improve or save money on existing tasks, is obviously going to be very important. And then the holy grail of AI really is robotics.
This is the best form factor for AI. Using large language models and neural networks to do real things in the economy and augment and replace the workforce. This is what drives everything in AI in the long run. That's why I think the AI bubble will probably never burst, because the possibilities of robotics are just so vast that, you know, you can easily justify the investments that are being made today, plus many trillions in the long term as robotics becomes successful.
The question is really about time. How quickly will this happen? If it takes 20 years for robotics to become material in the economy, then we may have a bubble. If it takes five years, then probably not. And this more meets my expectations. Energy. This is the main bottleneck for AI development at the moment, and in my opinion, it is a neglected area of AI commerce right now.
And then average companies, you know, a lot of average companies will use AI to become more profitable, and some of them have more leverage than others. So , in cyberspace, I like Rubrik and Zscaler. AI software I like Zeta Global, AppLovin, Palantir, ServiceNow, Automation, Zebra Technologies, UiPath.
In energy, I like Vistra Energy and NextEra Energy. And again , I like a lot of your travel topics, your hospitality type companies, cruise lines, airlines, resorts, casinos, restaurants. These are complex businesses that can use AI in many different areas of business to be more profitable, right? These companies are not one-way ponies.
They're, you know, like a cruise line that opens restaurants, puts on shows, hires staff, does cleaning and so on, casinos, right? There are many different levers I think cruise lines, airlines, resorts, casinos, and restaurants can use AI to be more profitable. And I really call this a unique opportunity because opportunities will change over time.
Right now, I think a lot of the focus is on memory and semiconductors, and that's great, you know, it's going to quickly translate into cyber software, artificial intelligence software, into early robotics companies like maybe Tesla. And then it will move into other areas, such as energy, photonics, data center connectors, etc.
And ultimately, in 10 years, everything will be focused on robotics. So I think we're in an environment right now where the opportunities are huge . Opportunities are almost everywhere. And look, I'm up 116% since the beginning of the year. I like to make confident, large, concentrated investments in these topics.
In stocks that I consider to be big, you know, AI winners that Wall Street ignores. And I think that over the next 10 years, what we're going to do here on this channel is going to be crazy. OK? Now, if you guys want to trade and invest with us, there's a link . I am not a financial planner. I may be wrong from time to time.
And again , sometimes something bad happens. But I think we're setting ourselves up, and even if you're a viewer of this channel, you're setting yourself up to have the tools and information you need to take advantage of this unique opportunity. After AI, I don't think we'll have anything like that in our lifetime.
Previous generations had the Internet. Now you have AI. And you know, AI will even spread to healthcare. This will affect everything. And there will be different times when different things will see big benefits from AI. However, now, in the near term, again , I think the markets will grow. I think we will have a strong market from now until about mid- November.
If the war with Iran ends, great. Incredible. We will have some of the strongest growth over the next 12 months that we have ever seen in our lifetimes . As Tom Lee said earlier in this video, profits are up 30%. The S&P rose about 10%. You know, the markets have actually gotten cheaper. And a lot of it has to do with the war with Iran and the pricing of those risks, like midterm elections and so on.
Once that clears up, assuming earnings growth next year, and I have no reason to believe it won't be at least 10, 12, 15%, there's a lot of catching up to do in the markets. But then again , could we have a crash at the end of the year? It is possible, and we need to be prepared for it in our portfolios.
So right now, you know, I don't have any insurance. I am positioned and ready for growth. I have about 22k in margin, less than 10% of the portfolio value. So, you know, I'm technically overly dependent on the markets, but, um, I like this style of investing right now. Obviously, no margin is the best option.
I have a margin because I really don't want to sell part of the huge profits that we have and all that. I think the markets are going to go up, so there's a bit of a middle ground here, but you want to be able to repay your margin, well, if you have margin. And I think you want to invest right now. Now, if the stock goes down, there 's a lot of buying power on margin here to buy the stocks on the decline, you know, 384,000.
Even if the markets go down 40% in a bearish scenario, I'll still have hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy the stocks on the decline outside of, you know, the outside capital that I could bring into the portfolio. So I consider it reliable now. And I think that's how everyone should be. You shouldn't be overestimating the chance of a crash now.
You shouldn't have a bunch of put options in your portfolio or short the markets right now. I also do n't think you should have a bunch of call options in your portfolio. And I definitely don't think you should be undervalued in this market. Again , this is not a recommendation. I'm not a financial advisor, but I think a lot of people will look back, you know, in 5-10 years, even 2-3 years, and say, "Damn, I missed an opportunity." And if you're watching this video, at least I gave you a little warning about it.
While it's important to draw your own conclusions, this is my opinion. Share your thoughts on at the bottom of today's episode description. Click the Like button , the Hype button, and the Subscribe button if you haven't already . Have a great evening, and see you in the next episode.
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