저자: VisceralAce—주출연인터뷰어DanIves및NikolaCFOKimBrady발언인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives가 Nikola에 대해 다시 강세 입장을 밝혔다는 내용의 영상. 결론: Nikola의 2022년은 전환점이 될 것이라는 낙관적 시각. [배경] Dan Ives(Wedbush)가 2021년 12월 중순 Wedbush 포럼에서 Nikola CFO Kim Brady와 약 30분 인터뷰 후 강세로 돌아섰고, 같은 시기 Tesla 목표주가 1400달러를 발표했다고 소개. [2021년 실적·생산] Kim Brady는 2021년을 실행(execution) 중심의 해로 평가. Q4에 최대 25대의 프리프로덕션 Tre BEV 트럭 생산 목표, 2022년 3월 말 양산 시작 예정. 공급망(배터리 셀·모듈·팩, e-axle, 반도체) 병목이 주요 과제이며 2022년 1분기쯤 해소될 것으로 기대. [고객·LOI] 고객들은 실제 트럭을 90~120일 시험 운행한 뒤 후속 주문을 결정하는 구조의 LOI(의향서)를 맺고 있음. 일부 최종 단계 논의 중이며 일부 LOI는 체결 완료. Tre BEV는 300~350마일 주행거리의 단거리용으로 소개. [수소 연료전지 트럭] 알파 버전 7대(독일 Ulm 2대·애리조나 5대 추정)가 검증 중, 1월 고객 전달 계획. 2022년 베타 15~20대, 2023년 초 감마 버전, 2023년 하반기 양산 목표. 중거리 및 항만 운영에 적합하다고 주장. [인프라·수소 공급] 26개 주에 딜러·서비스망 확보, 중서부 커버리지 확대 중. 애리조나 수소 허브 착공 발표 예정, 수소 충전소 발표 예정. WVR 프로젝트 등 제3자 오프테이크 계약 언급, 수소 게이트 가격 1달러 미만, 충전소 공급가 2달러 미만 목표. 45Q 및 수소 생산 세액공제 활용 가능성 언급. [2022 핵심 촉매] 애리조나 수소 허브 착공, 추가 LOI 발표, 첫 상업용 충전소 착공 발표 등. 화자는 기관투자자 관심 증가와 회사 진전을 긍정 평가. [리스크·유의] 공급망 차질로 2021년 생산량이 제한적이었고, 수소 인프라와 주문 전환은 아직 검증되지 않음. 단, 투자 판단 근거로 제시된 수치 대부분은 회사 측 목표·전망이며 확정 실적이 아님.
다듬은 글
well well well it looks like nicola has yet again caught the eye of one of the eevee industry's most well-respected individuals this time by the name of dan ives we've already had sandy monroe come out and give his honest opinion on nicolas battery and fuel cell trucks after having driven both of them at their coolidge arizona facility and to yet another surprise of the nikola skeptics we now have dan ives an analyst at a firm called the red bush come out and reinstate his bullish prospects for nicola after he sat down with the company's cfo kim brady for a one-on-one talk at redbush's eevee forum last month and ironically dan also happened to recently announce a 1400 price target for the eevee community's darling company tesla dan has actually been bullish on tesla for a very long time and his thesis has been thoroughly validated by the insane delivery numbers and growth tesla has pulled all year and so the fact that he's extremely intrigued by nicola motors and their progress really shuts up a lot of the skeptics in this video i'll be giving you guys a breakdown on dan's most recent interview with nicolas executives to truly understand the massive opportunity he is seeing in nicolas stock but before we get into it guys make sure to drop me a thumbs up and hit that subscribe button if you haven't already this interview i'm gonna be playing was recorded around the middle of december at the redbush eve forum where kim brady the cfo of nikola spent around 30 minutes answering dan's questions about nicholas planned for the next year or so i've linked the recording down in the description in case you guys want to watch it for yourself but basically i'm going to be mainly playing the parts where kim shared some truly critical information about the future of the company and its delivery goals and i'll be pausing throughout his answers to give you guys a quick summary and my own opinions on what kim said so without further ado let's get started kim i appreciate you coming on you know as always with these uh now this has been a big year for nicola i think successes in terms of you know paving the way on enjoy the division so i think maybe let's just start there i mean like when we think about 2021 let's just think about the targets that were set and of course chip shortage and everything else and maybe sort of how you're executing and you know what you think have been some of the uh you know i think the queer highs and i'm excited to be on the virus chat this morning 2021 has been a you know challenging year however we have very much focused on execution and we are delivering on execution what we have stated is that in q4 we would deliver up to 25 what we call pre-production trucks meaning these are pre-series and that will actually start production by end of march and we are on target to accomplish that i think you already know that we have both gamma and previous pre-serious trucks on the road accumulating miles on public road and they are going through extensive validation and testing and our manufacturing facility have been working hard to build the trucks and so you know we were very careful when we said up to 25 trucks because we feel confident in terms of we will be able to build those trucks and have them offline we are working with customers as well as dealers in terms of uh schedule as to when they would actually receive those trucks and we have also made an announcement about next week ttsi um a port operator where we'll be delivering a couple of battery electric trucks at the port and we're pretty excited about that too so this year has been very much focused on execution and meeting milestones that we have promised of course supply chain continues to be a challenge and we talked about previously on our earnings call that when it comes to battery allocation still that's very tight and battery modules and packs that's important for us making sure that we are receiving enough packs for our trucks as well as there are constraints with respect to e-axle as well as chips and so we are working through those challenges and we think some of those challenges will be worked through uh by q1 of 2022 and we are trying to receive confirmation from our suppliers key critical component suppliers in terms of the timing as well as the quantity so that we have a clarity as to what we can build each quarter for next year so right off the bat i want to mention the fantastic job that kim grady is doing here to properly explain everything to dan kim is generally showing a lot of confidence and there's a sense of excitement behind his words which is super rare to see from a company's chief financial officer but moving on to his answer kim basically gave us an idea of how many bev trucks nikola planned to build in 2021 and why the number of trucks has been so low which is primarily because of the complicated supply chain situation from what i understand kim is saying that nikola's biggest challenge right now isn't their manufacturing capacity but rather their supply of key critical components for the trucks like the chips the e-axles and the battery packs he also mentioned that he expects supply chain clarity to show up in the q1 of this year and more production importantly that will lead to nicola beginning volume production of the treby ev by the end of march and so this most definitely is a very critical catalyst for nicola and talk about potential customers you know obviously though they're always coming by the the facility all the time you're you're engaged with them how is that change especially when we're thinking about the division on hydrogen you know if you if i think back a year ago or 18 months ago to where it is today have those conversations change we have new products as you know we have nuclear trade bev for short haul metro operation and distribution and to raise operations and that's the truck that we're building now and we'll be delivering to our dealers as well as customers in q4 as well as q1 and into 2022 as you know customers are excited the fact that now we have what we call a pre-series of production version of the truck and so these are real truck that will be tested on public roads hauling freight and so you'll be operated in the environment many of our truck customers what they're looking for is to be able to test for 90 to 120 days and then based on meeting operating parameters there will be follow-on orders so what you have seen is that we have announced several lois this year and all of those lois describe some pilot testing and operating parameters with respect to uptime and reliability that we need to meet and then the follow-on volume and we anticipate most of our lois will be structured similarly and we have number of discussions that are going on with customers potential customers right now and there are certain segments of those discussions where those discussions are at final stage when we are when we say final stage very close signing otherwise and we have some lois that have been signed and then ultimately that will get announced and so customers are getting excited because they are getting a real truck and what's great about nikola uh trey bev is that it's really a european design flat no shorter wheelbase tighter turning radius and longer range we are talking about 300 to 350 mile range and so customers are excited to test our truck because it's ideal for short haul application and so when they think about now being able to order trucks and and they are really excited because until now we have talked about alpha version beta version gamma version and now we have trucks that we can actually deliver to our dealers and customers when it comes to fuel cell trucks as you know we have built seven nikola tray fuel cell alpha two in olm germany five here in arizona and they are going through validation testing we have committed to place them in customers hand in january they will go to nash bush for road testing and hauling beer and then couple will go to ttsi for the port operation and so we are really excited about our fuel cell truck because it's ideal for medium haul application but it can also be ideal for port operations where they run trucks 20 hours a day and it's slip sitting arrangement and so when one shift is done essentially you got a second driver using that same truck within 15 minutes and so as long as fuel is available potentially if as long as you have right type of truck such as nikola tray fuel cell where you have capability of going to perhaps 500 mile range yet at the same time it could be used for short haul operations and so we think we got a very flexible product we're excited about it next year we'll likely build anywhere from 15 to 20 beta version of neglect tray fuel cell and then beginning of 2023 it will be the gamma version and we go into production in the second half of 2023 so we think we will have two products that addresses both childhood and medium applications and we would submit to you that there's no competitor that's out there are able to bring two products to be able to address both short haul and medium haul especially by 2023.
so in this part of the interview kim basically shares an extremely important detail about how and why nikola is signing these loi agreements with customers since obviously electric trucks are such a brand new technology many customers are pretty nervous about adding these trucks to their fleets immediately so these customers often want to test out a few pre-series trucks from nikola for about three months or so through these loi agreements and if the trucks fit their duty cycles and their usage cases then the company will go ahead with the rest of the order this allows nicolas some time to lock in the supply of components to build the trucks and in my opinion gives the company a lot more exposure to other new customers kim also mentions the fact that some of the alpha units of the tray fuel cell version are actually expected to be delivered to anheuser-busch and ttsi this month which is going to be yet another huge milestone for nikola especially since these hydrogen trucks are exactly what's going to set nicola apart from the rest of the industry look i mean i think 2000 billion 2021 like you've defied i think a lot of what the skeptics do i mean you've navigated through the storm you you really from a technology perspective made significant sort of uh headway but when we look at 2022 like if you had almost put it into like two or three priorities or buckets what are the what are the keys for investors or even internally you know from a managing from a board from an engineering perspective when we look at nikola over the next year deliver on the bill that we commit to for 2022 meth trucks to be able to do that that means that we will have to we will have to have a procured key critical component so that we can build the drugs that we come into the marketplace and then continue to build that backlog we believe once we have trucks out in the market and as we start to receive favorable reviews from our customers we believe our backlog will expand we want to be able to demonstrate that expansion of our backlog for trade bath when it comes to trade fuel cell we think will receive very favorable review about the quality of our trucks and performance and once again is building that backlog with additional customer wins and announcements as you know we will continue to build out our dealer network and service network that's really important to us we have coverage in 26 states now north east south east southwest in midwest we're trying to ensure that we got better coverage in the midwest so having critical uh infrastructure with respect to apparent maintenance special for commercial trucks are absolutely important and we're doing that and then when it comes to hydrogen infrastructure um we want to make sure that we start uh break ground on hydrogen up uh we want to execute on our temporary solution with respect to you know mobile hydrogen fueling solutions that we have until hydrogen stations and hubs are are running and so we are executing that but we want to be able to announce the ground break with respect to hydrogen hub here in arizona and we are also planning to make an announcement with respect to hydrogen station we've already made an announcement with suspected third party outtake agreements starting with wvr and we anticipate there will be many more like that so think about wbr project where we have an investment into an asset where it's being repurposed to generate hydrogen so it's going to be using pepcoke gasification plant where carbon will be captured and clustered is one of the number one priority and they're funding most of that transition we will have 20 interest and that asset will have um available in terms of in incentives either q45 or hydrogen production tax credit and then we also have percent offspring agreement for hydrogen so we are confident that we'll be able to buy hydrogen at the gate meaning at the plant for less than dollar if including transportation costs we think we can deliver hydrogen to our dispensing stations um at lower than two dollars and so that's pretty exciting if you think about in the midwest where you tend to have perhaps more expensive electricity costs we can take third-party uptake agreements and able to deliver hydrogen where carbon has been squash served so this is ultimately 99.9999 clean and pure hydrogen for our customers in the most intense and busy um class a truck uh corridor as well as the you know biggest demand for class a trucks in a such a concentrated area so if we can execute that next year then we'll be on a road to um significant stabilization and look i mean kim i appreciate you you know and obviously dylan and team being here and i think just a lot i mean a lot of challenges but you really as a team navigate a lot it seems like your momentum is just continuing to build into 2022 and uh look forward to seeing all the improvements at the plant in arizona you know uh hopefully i'll uh i'll be there in the coming weeks and um thanks again i think i'm not sure if you're going to be at ces but uh many investors out there we could always set up meetings there or you know virtual wherever maybe so here dan ice does a great job of summarizing the incredibly positive years spin for nikola in 2021 even though most short seller arguments about this company have fallen apart this year some people are still delusional enough to let biases and jealousy cloud their judgment about nicola and kim's answers only further solidify the fact that even though delivering electric trucks is a pretty hard task nicola has navigated through a lot of the tailwinds last year and to wrap up the interview kim mentions that some of the new catalysts for the company in 2022 are expected to be first the opening of their first hydrogen hub in arizona which is going to take advantage of their partnership with tc energy and secondly the announcement of new loi agreements for the trey bev that kim has said the company has already signed and lastly he also mentioned that the groundbreaking for their very first commercial fueling station at one of nicholas partner trucking networks is also something they expect to announce this year so overall i really love the vibes in this interview i think there's a lot of positivity around nikola stock and especially the institutional investor base has really caught up to the progress that this company is making and that is certainly being reflected in what dan ives's thoughts are and given this amazing progress i would definitely agree in saying that 2022 is going to be the pivotal year for nicola but anyways guys make sure to drop me a thumbs up if you found some value from this video let me know down in the comment section below your guys thoughts on this interview and dan ice's perspective on this company but anyways guys i hope you enjoyed this video and i'll catch you guys in the next one take care
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